4 ms·

For reference seasonal flu is around 0.1% and also increases with age, so Covid-19 is at least 6X as deadly as the flu. This article also doesn't mention lasti

by api 7y ago

For reference seasonal flu is around 0.1% and also increases with age, so Covid-19 is at least 6X as deadly as the flu. This article also doesn't mention lasting effects. I have seen reports of people with bad cases being left with lung damage but I have seen no statistics on this. Everyone is focusing on mortality so I wonder if they're bothering to collect this info. If it leaves a lot of people with pulmonary scar tissue that's a big deal.

libertine 7y ago
> If it leaves a lot of people with pulmonary scar tissue that's a big deal. I think it's simply to early, maybe in the next 1-3 years you can have a more precise picture. We don't know if people with pulmonary scar tissue will end up recovering, or if it's permanent damage (from what I've seen it will depend on many variables, age being one of them). Even for mortality rate, we need to see this through to collect unbiased data from USA and Europe.
KozmoNau7 7y ago
According to reports here, some patients need assisted breathing for upwards of a month, in some cases at >80% oxygen, to have a chance at making it.
matwood 7y ago
> I have seen reports of people with bad cases being left with lung damage Unfortunately this will be hard to know without more time. Bad respiratory diseases, and COVID-19 is one, can take months to fully recover.
Fjolsvith 7y ago
It will likely fall to a lesser amount as testing rolls out to a larger sample size of the population.
- Fjolsvith 7y ago
  Here's a source backing my assertion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22787076 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22787076
rectang 7y ago
> This article also doesn't mention lasting effects. The problem is ARDS: Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome. Some portion of the people who enter the ICU develop ARDS and typically need to be put on a ventilator. A large percentage (~40%) of those people die, and the many of the rest may be left with lasting effects. Here's a great video detailing the mechanism of ARDS: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vPtH42Lnt_Y https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vPtH42Lnt_Y COVID-19 patients who don't develop ARDS seem to have a much better long term prognosis.
LorenPechtel 7y ago
Looking at current US data I see Covid-19 deaths almost exactly 6x influenza & pneumonia deaths. And that's with flu being endemic but Covid-19 still not having done a lot to areas with little international travel. Once it's hitting those areas I expect it to be the #1 killer in the US.
rurban 7y ago
Depends on the country and the age pyramid. IFR in Italy is 1% fir the flu as well as for C0VID-19, so just 1x, not 6x higher. For Germany I got to 2x. Lung damage is of course a serious issue, yes. And ICU overload which does not happen with the normal flu.

by api 7y ago

libertine 7y ago

> If it leaves a lot of people with pulmonary scar tissue that's a big deal. I think it's simply to early, maybe in the next 1-3 years you can have a more precise picture. We don't know if people with pulmonary scar tissue will end up recovering, or if it's permanent damage (from what I've seen it will depend on many variables, age being one of them). Even for mortality rate, we need to see this through to collect unbiased data from USA and Europe.

KozmoNau7 7y ago

According to reports here, some patients need assisted breathing for upwards of a month, in some cases at >80% oxygen, to have a chance at making it.

matwood 7y ago

> I have seen reports of people with bad cases being left with lung damage Unfortunately this will be hard to know without more time. Bad respiratory diseases, and COVID-19 is one, can take months to fully recover.

Fjolsvith 7y ago

It will likely fall to a lesser amount as testing rolls out to a larger sample size of the population.

Fjolsvith 7y ago
Here's a source backing my assertion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22787076 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22787076

rectang 7y ago

> This article also doesn't mention lasting effects. The problem is ARDS: Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome. Some portion of the people who enter the ICU develop ARDS and typically need to be put on a ventilator. A large percentage (~40%) of those people die, and the many of the rest may be left with lasting effects. Here's a great video detailing the mechanism of ARDS: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vPtH42Lnt_Y https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vPtH42Lnt_Y COVID-19 patients who don't develop ARDS seem to have a much better long term prognosis.

LorenPechtel 7y ago

Looking at current US data I see Covid-19 deaths almost exactly 6x influenza & pneumonia deaths. And that's with flu being endemic but Covid-19 still not having done a lot to areas with little international travel. Once it's hitting those areas I expect it to be the #1 killer in the US.

rurban 7y ago

Depends on the country and the age pyramid. IFR in Italy is 1% fir the flu as well as for C0VID-19, so just 1x, not 6x higher. For Germany I got to 2x. Lung damage is of course a serious issue, yes. And ICU overload which does not happen with the normal flu.