4 ms·

20% hospitalization rate is what everyone should focus on. CFR is 3% but hospitalization of young adults is extremely high. When young people have to get treatm

20% hospitalization rate is what everyone should focus on. CFR is 3% but hospitalization of young adults is extremely high. When young people have to get treatment and they can't - they'll suffer and have serious consequences if not death. Edit: Listen to the person replying to me. It is not 20%, but 3.3%. I am off by an order of magnitude.

bpodgursky 7y ago
None of those numbers are accurate. Latest research: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3... .66% CFR, with 3.3% hospitalized (and fewer ICU) under age of 40. Even in the >80 age range, hospitalization is < 20%. If you're going to make a point, make the point with accurate numbers -- those are off by an order of magnitude.
- fermienrico 7y ago
  3.3% is still insanely high. If 50% of US population is under the age of 40, that's 5 million people in hospitals. This changes nothing.
  - Judgmentality 7y ago
    > This changes nothing. It literally changes everything, as you're spreading false information. Instead of 20%, it's 3.3% - that doesn't change anything? It's the difference of tens of millions of lives just in the United States! Yes, 3.3% is still high, but it's not even in the same ballpark as 20%. And not everyone will be hospitalized at once, which is the entire point of flattening the curve.
    - fermienrico 7y ago
      The point is that 20% or 3.3%, the amount of hospitalizations would far exceed the capacity. We shouldn’t get there in the first place. So the proposed idea of opening things up is a non starter. I’ve already edited my comment to concede on 20%. Why get so combative in responding? I’m not trying to spread false information and willing to concede when new factual information is reported. Jeez.
      - Judgmentality 7y ago
        > Why get so combative in responding? Because you were arguing tens of millions of deaths "changes nothing."
malandrew 7y ago
The data I've seen so far shows that it's mostly young people with complications. If you're one of those people with such complications, you can self select out and remain quarantined while the rest of the country tries to return to work. That's not to say that a few young people with no health issues might be harmed. There will be some, but from what I've see thus far, all other potential causes of death in the next year from things like cars accidents are more likely than dying of COVID19 in the next year for those young people with no co-morbidities. Just saying young people in general have a CFR of 3% isn't helpful.
- nradov 7y ago
  The crazy think is I still see plenty of young people smoking and vaping. WTF? Now might be a good time to take care of your lungs.

bpodgursky 7y ago

None of those numbers are accurate. Latest research: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3... .66% CFR, with 3.3% hospitalized (and fewer ICU) under age of 40. Even in the >80 age range, hospitalization is < 20%. If you're going to make a point, make the point with accurate numbers -- those are off by an order of magnitude.

fermienrico 7y ago
3.3% is still insanely high. If 50% of US population is under the age of 40, that's 5 million people in hospitals. This changes nothing.
- Judgmentality 7y ago
  > This changes nothing. It literally changes everything, as you're spreading false information. Instead of 20%, it's 3.3% - that doesn't change anything? It's the difference of tens of millions of lives just in the United States! Yes, 3.3% is still high, but it's not even in the same ballpark as 20%. And not everyone will be hospitalized at once, which is the entire point of flattening the curve.
  - fermienrico 7y ago
    The point is that 20% or 3.3%, the amount of hospitalizations would far exceed the capacity. We shouldn’t get there in the first place. So the proposed idea of opening things up is a non starter. I’ve already edited my comment to concede on 20%. Why get so combative in responding? I’m not trying to spread false information and willing to concede when new factual information is reported. Jeez.
    - Judgmentality 7y ago
      > Why get so combative in responding? Because you were arguing tens of millions of deaths "changes nothing."

malandrew 7y ago

The data I've seen so far shows that it's mostly young people with complications. If you're one of those people with such complications, you can self select out and remain quarantined while the rest of the country tries to return to work. That's not to say that a few young people with no health issues might be harmed. There will be some, but from what I've see thus far, all other potential causes of death in the next year from things like cars accidents are more likely than dying of COVID19 in the next year for those young people with no co-morbidities. Just saying young people in general have a CFR of 3% isn't helpful.

nradov 7y ago
The crazy think is I still see plenty of young people smoking and vaping. WTF? Now might be a good time to take care of your lungs.