8 ms·

Oh boy, I can hear the the bootcamp data scientists firing up their medium blogs from here.

airstrike 7y ago
Sadly all of this data assumes there are approximately as many beds as needed, and won't be very helpful `x` weeks from now because once we hit capacity, the situation is bound to look very different. I don't see enough people making this point: the young will be very vulnerable if left untreated, and you can't treat e.g. the entire state of NY with 3,800 ICU beds plus however many the wonderful people in the Army Corps of Engineer can put together in a pinch. It's not like young people are going to recover at home from their nasty case of pneumonia. With no ventilators and no medical staff, the mortality rate will markedly increase.
- tejohnso 7y ago
  > I don't see enough people making this point: the young will be very vulnerable if left untreated Why are you pointing out "the young" here?
  - Footkerchief 7y ago
    Because the prevailing narrative is that this disease is mainly dangerous to the elderly.
    - paulmd 7y ago
      It is primarily dangerous to the elderly. That is what the actual data shows. Some people are pushing a counter-narrative that youngs aren't invincible. Which is also true. 0.1% death rates doesn't mean zero deaths. A higher number will be hospitalized, and as hospitals become overwhelmed that means (a) quality of care will be degraded and death rates will increase somewhat, and (b) any youngs in a bed comes at the direct expense of an elderly in a bed. But if you are claiming that this disease is not mainly dangerous to the elderly, no, that is false, the deaths and hospitalizations are hugely weighted to the elderly and are quite low for young cohorts. Yes, it is important that everyone minimize contacts as much as possible. For some reason people love to really harp on this point with the youngs. I didn't go to florida for spring break, it was my boomer parents who did (or rather, were planning on going this summer and complained nonstop that Florida state parks closed and cut them off). Churches are still open in many states spreading disease. Boomers are still going to Home Depot and buying their home improvement goods. A lot of boomers aren't taking this seriously either but nobody chooses to bring that up. There are lots of changes that need to be made by everyone, but younger people are one of the primary targets of casual/unthinking ageism in this country. Avocado toast and all that. Focusing the blame on this onto the young is no more correct, helpful, or productive than focusing the blame on the Chinese, and I suspect is coming from most of the same media sources.
      - Mediterraneo10 7y ago
        > Boomers are still going to Home Depot and buying their home improvement goods. It is worth pointing out that home-improvement stores were specifically exempt from the order to close businesses in several European countries. This is probably partly because those stores sell gardening products, and villagers need to be able to plant their vegetables now. However, the expectation on the part of public health authorities is presumably that that these stores remaining open, like supermarkets, will still not prevent the infection curve from flattening over the lockdown period.
      - airstrike 7y ago
        > It is primarily dangerous to the elderly. That is what the actual data shows. Right, because the mortality rate for people under intensive care is skewed towards the elderly / people with underlying health conditions because they can't weather the ICU storm. My point is that data is irrelevant for the scenario in which people go without intensive care. We have no idea how deadly COVID-19 will be then (or at least I haven't seen any data on those cases)
- momokoko 7y ago
  The over capacity modeling is incredibly difficult to do. Please stop trying to spread additional gloom and doom about a part of this future most people have no control over. There are already novel ideas to address that issue being put into use and capacity is ramping up rapidly. Modeling the future is incredibly difficult. If you think it is so easy, feel free to go become a billionaire in the financial markets and donate the money to help with the cause. Spread fear about uncontrollable and unpredictable future events is wildly irresponsible.
  - lopmotr 7y ago
    > Spread fear about uncontrollable and unpredictable future events is wildly irresponsible. I'm not sure about that. Back in January, it was surely not irresponsible to get people worried about a pandemic. China is often criticized for suppressing online fear-mongering. Climate change activists are praised for it. Fear motivates people. It might not be the most rational motivation but neither is passively believing everything will continue as normal. This idea that the world is full of gullible idiots and that "us" smart people have to be careful what we say in case they act on it is arrogant. Facts online are often self-correcting, as you can see right here with people immediately challenging his claim.
  - airstrike 7y ago
    Great ad hominem, but I can't resist responding even though you're basically just repeating the same (wrong) argument multiple times. > The over capacity modeling is incredibly difficult to do. I never stated otherwise. And I'm not asking anyone to model anything. I'm just saying we'll be over capacity at a near point in the future. That seems like a pretty defensible extrapolation, but would love to hear how that's not the case. > Please stop trying to spread additional gloom and doom about a part of this future most people have no control over. Why? This is the world we live in currently. What you call "gloom and doom" others would call being cautious. > There are already novel ideas to address that issue being put into use and capacity is ramping up rapidly. Ideas. Let's hope they come to fruition. In the meantime, let's not kid ourselves about the risk to the non-elderly. > Modeling the future is incredibly difficult. Again irrelevant. I never claimed otherwise. > If you think it is so easy I don't think it's easy > Spread fear about uncontrollable and unpredictable future events is wildly irresponsible. I'm not "spreading fear". I'm debating an issue with most analyses currently being done in that they don't apply to the overcapacity scenario. And I disagree that's an irresponsible argument to make. Indeed, I can't see how turning a deaf ear to this most reasonable extrapolation that we'll soon be over capacity isn't the most irresponsible of the two.
- SpicyLemonZest 7y ago
  > you can't treat e.g. the entire state of NY with 3,800 ICU beds plus however many the wonderful people in the Army Corps of Engineer can put together in a pinch. Can't you? Cuomo seems pretty optimistic that once they get their 30,000 ventilators they'll be able to handle the peak.
- chatmasta 7y ago
  Anyone know where we can get county level data of bed capacity?
  - pkaye 7y ago
    covid-19.direct. Select a county and click hospitals on the bottom tab. If you are asking for csv format, I'm not sure where you can find that.
wolco 7y ago
Let's try to not put people down for self learning. Knowledge can be found anywhere. Those that mock people like this will soon find themselves left behind with ancient university based education. Unless you plan to re-enroll every 10 years the world will pass you by if you are not self learning.
- throwawayjava 7y ago
  "Oh boy, I can hear the sophomore software engineering studio students firing up their word processors from here" works just as well. I don't think the critique was of self-learning or bootcamps. It was a critique of a certain sort of cringe-worthy self-promotion. And not just cringe-worthy. Spreading information based upon a cursory analysis of some CSV files without any training or experience in epidemiology, public health, public communications, etc. seems... irresponsible. Also, off-topic, but most of my peers at university taught themselves how to program years before starting college -- typically in middle/early high school. And I mean actually taught themselves, from books and zine tutorials, not 'attended a formal course of instruction that was offered by a venture-backed firm instead of a formal course of instruction at a traditional university'. I guess times have changed, but the characterization of university students in CS as 'not self-taught programmers' is definitely the opposite of my experience. You came into the CS degree knowing how to program and learned how to do CS. And the characterization of "anything not university" as "self-taught" -- even formal courses of instruction that cost five figures -- is even more strange.
  - SpicyLemonZest 7y ago
    That just doesn't seem like a fair standard. Why should only experts in a relevant field talk about the coronavirus? Nobody tries to stop people from sharing hospital stories from their friend's cousin's boyfriend who's a nurse.
    - throwawayjava 7y ago
      Oh, I think it's completely fine to play with the data and talk about it with friends. But SEOd medium posts have different reach potential than a facebook comment/phone call with friends/family. That's kind of the whole point of them.
johnvega 7y ago
https://github.com/nytimes/covid-19-data https://github.com/nytimes/covid-19-data
melling 7y ago
“Math is boring. When am I ever going to use it?” The data can be used by a lot of people for a lot of learning. My project: I’d like to watch the growth state by state on a daily basis.
- acqq 7y ago
  If you want an example of how to do that good, I find this the best: https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest as a simpler start, see the logarithmic chart here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ Note how easy is to estimate the time frame in which the next factor of 10 could be reached with the growth that continues. Compare with the logarithmic chart of China: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/ Search for the date since when they had their measures applied in Wuhan. Then follow how long it took for them to be visible in the chart. Then mark on the US chart when the measures started. Compare. Also mark the day of the following quote: "And we’re prepared, and we’re doing a great job with it. And it will go away. Just stay calm. It will go away." One can learn really a lot just from the data.
starpilot 7y ago
When I see datasets like this, I just think of how 95% of my work as a DS has been just getting to that cleaned table at the end. After that the modeling is straightforward.
ksk 7y ago
I think its amazing that people are passionate, but the humility about not understanding something in its entirety is shrinking day by day. Today everyone wants to be the "explainer" or the "let me tell you how its done" person without actually having any hands-on experience or deep knowledge in the domain. The oldskool litmus test was "What have you done in this field that makes your opinion worth something?" and it is clearly no longer applicable in today's world.

Sadly all of this data assumes there are approximately as many beds as needed, and won't be very helpful `x` weeks from now because once we hit capacity, the situation is bound to look very different. I don't see enough people making this point: the young will be very vulnerable if left untreated, and you can't treat e.g. the entire state of NY with 3,800 ICU beds plus however many the wonderful people in the Army Corps of Engineer can put together in a pinch. It's not like young people are going to recover at home from their nasty case of pneumonia. With no ventilators and no medical staff, the mortality rate will markedly increase.

tejohnso 7y ago
> I don't see enough people making this point: the young will be very vulnerable if left untreated Why are you pointing out "the young" here?
- Footkerchief 7y ago
  Because the prevailing narrative is that this disease is mainly dangerous to the elderly.
  - paulmd 7y ago
    It is primarily dangerous to the elderly. That is what the actual data shows. Some people are pushing a counter-narrative that youngs aren't invincible. Which is also true. 0.1% death rates doesn't mean zero deaths. A higher number will be hospitalized, and as hospitals become overwhelmed that means (a) quality of care will be degraded and death rates will increase somewhat, and (b) any youngs in a bed comes at the direct expense of an elderly in a bed. But if you are claiming that this disease is not mainly dangerous to the elderly, no, that is false, the deaths and hospitalizations are hugely weighted to the elderly and are quite low for young cohorts. Yes, it is important that everyone minimize contacts as much as possible. For some reason people love to really harp on this point with the youngs. I didn't go to florida for spring break, it was my boomer parents who did (or rather, were planning on going this summer and complained nonstop that Florida state parks closed and cut them off). Churches are still open in many states spreading disease. Boomers are still going to Home Depot and buying their home improvement goods. A lot of boomers aren't taking this seriously either but nobody chooses to bring that up. There are lots of changes that need to be made by everyone, but younger people are one of the primary targets of casual/unthinking ageism in this country. Avocado toast and all that. Focusing the blame on this onto the young is no more correct, helpful, or productive than focusing the blame on the Chinese, and I suspect is coming from most of the same media sources.
    - Mediterraneo10 7y ago
      > Boomers are still going to Home Depot and buying their home improvement goods. It is worth pointing out that home-improvement stores were specifically exempt from the order to close businesses in several European countries. This is probably partly because those stores sell gardening products, and villagers need to be able to plant their vegetables now. However, the expectation on the part of public health authorities is presumably that that these stores remaining open, like supermarkets, will still not prevent the infection curve from flattening over the lockdown period.
    - airstrike 7y ago
      > It is primarily dangerous to the elderly. That is what the actual data shows. Right, because the mortality rate for people under intensive care is skewed towards the elderly / people with underlying health conditions because they can't weather the ICU storm. My point is that data is irrelevant for the scenario in which people go without intensive care. We have no idea how deadly COVID-19 will be then (or at least I haven't seen any data on those cases)
momokoko 7y ago
The over capacity modeling is incredibly difficult to do. Please stop trying to spread additional gloom and doom about a part of this future most people have no control over. There are already novel ideas to address that issue being put into use and capacity is ramping up rapidly. Modeling the future is incredibly difficult. If you think it is so easy, feel free to go become a billionaire in the financial markets and donate the money to help with the cause. Spread fear about uncontrollable and unpredictable future events is wildly irresponsible.
- lopmotr 7y ago
  > Spread fear about uncontrollable and unpredictable future events is wildly irresponsible. I'm not sure about that. Back in January, it was surely not irresponsible to get people worried about a pandemic. China is often criticized for suppressing online fear-mongering. Climate change activists are praised for it. Fear motivates people. It might not be the most rational motivation but neither is passively believing everything will continue as normal. This idea that the world is full of gullible idiots and that "us" smart people have to be careful what we say in case they act on it is arrogant. Facts online are often self-correcting, as you can see right here with people immediately challenging his claim.
- airstrike 7y ago
  Great ad hominem, but I can't resist responding even though you're basically just repeating the same (wrong) argument multiple times. > The over capacity modeling is incredibly difficult to do. I never stated otherwise. And I'm not asking anyone to model anything. I'm just saying we'll be over capacity at a near point in the future. That seems like a pretty defensible extrapolation, but would love to hear how that's not the case. > Please stop trying to spread additional gloom and doom about a part of this future most people have no control over. Why? This is the world we live in currently. What you call "gloom and doom" others would call being cautious. > There are already novel ideas to address that issue being put into use and capacity is ramping up rapidly. Ideas. Let's hope they come to fruition. In the meantime, let's not kid ourselves about the risk to the non-elderly. > Modeling the future is incredibly difficult. Again irrelevant. I never claimed otherwise. > If you think it is so easy I don't think it's easy > Spread fear about uncontrollable and unpredictable future events is wildly irresponsible. I'm not "spreading fear". I'm debating an issue with most analyses currently being done in that they don't apply to the overcapacity scenario. And I disagree that's an irresponsible argument to make. Indeed, I can't see how turning a deaf ear to this most reasonable extrapolation that we'll soon be over capacity isn't the most irresponsible of the two.
SpicyLemonZest 7y ago
> you can't treat e.g. the entire state of NY with 3,800 ICU beds plus however many the wonderful people in the Army Corps of Engineer can put together in a pinch. Can't you? Cuomo seems pretty optimistic that once they get their 30,000 ventilators they'll be able to handle the peak.
chatmasta 7y ago
Anyone know where we can get county level data of bed capacity?
- pkaye 7y ago
  covid-19.direct. Select a county and click hospitals on the bottom tab. If you are asking for csv format, I'm not sure where you can find that.

wolco 7y ago

Let's try to not put people down for self learning. Knowledge can be found anywhere. Those that mock people like this will soon find themselves left behind with ancient university based education. Unless you plan to re-enroll every 10 years the world will pass you by if you are not self learning.

throwawayjava 7y ago
"Oh boy, I can hear the sophomore software engineering studio students firing up their word processors from here" works just as well. I don't think the critique was of self-learning or bootcamps. It was a critique of a certain sort of cringe-worthy self-promotion. And not just cringe-worthy. Spreading information based upon a cursory analysis of some CSV files without any training or experience in epidemiology, public health, public communications, etc. seems... irresponsible. Also, off-topic, but most of my peers at university taught themselves how to program years before starting college -- typically in middle/early high school. And I mean actually taught themselves, from books and zine tutorials, not 'attended a formal course of instruction that was offered by a venture-backed firm instead of a formal course of instruction at a traditional university'. I guess times have changed, but the characterization of university students in CS as 'not self-taught programmers' is definitely the opposite of my experience. You came into the CS degree knowing how to program and learned how to do CS. And the characterization of "anything not university" as "self-taught" -- even formal courses of instruction that cost five figures -- is even more strange.
- SpicyLemonZest 7y ago
  That just doesn't seem like a fair standard. Why should only experts in a relevant field talk about the coronavirus? Nobody tries to stop people from sharing hospital stories from their friend's cousin's boyfriend who's a nurse.
  - throwawayjava 7y ago
    Oh, I think it's completely fine to play with the data and talk about it with friends. But SEOd medium posts have different reach potential than a facebook comment/phone call with friends/family. That's kind of the whole point of them.

johnvega 7y ago

https://github.com/nytimes/covid-19-data https://github.com/nytimes/covid-19-data

melling 7y ago

“Math is boring. When am I ever going to use it?” The data can be used by a lot of people for a lot of learning. My project: I’d like to watch the growth state by state on a daily basis.

acqq 7y ago
If you want an example of how to do that good, I find this the best: https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest as a simpler start, see the logarithmic chart here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ Note how easy is to estimate the time frame in which the next factor of 10 could be reached with the growth that continues. Compare with the logarithmic chart of China: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/ Search for the date since when they had their measures applied in Wuhan. Then follow how long it took for them to be visible in the chart. Then mark on the US chart when the measures started. Compare. Also mark the day of the following quote: "And we’re prepared, and we’re doing a great job with it. And it will go away. Just stay calm. It will go away." One can learn really a lot just from the data.

starpilot 7y ago

When I see datasets like this, I just think of how 95% of my work as a DS has been just getting to that cleaned table at the end. After that the modeling is straightforward.

ksk 7y ago

I think its amazing that people are passionate, but the humility about not understanding something in its entirety is shrinking day by day. Today everyone wants to be the "explainer" or the "let me tell you how its done" person without actually having any hands-on experience or deep knowledge in the domain. The oldskool litmus test was "What have you done in this field that makes your opinion worth something?" and it is clearly no longer applicable in today's world.