3 ms·

I definitely agree with you, but I want to see more data. Without broad testing it’s difficult to ascertain the true death rate of the virus (many infected are

I definitely agree with you, but I want to see more data. Without broad testing it’s difficult to ascertain the true death rate of the virus (many infected are asymptomatic). But my hope is we can come up with similarly effective measures (e.g. require n95 masks in public, keeping the elderly at home, offer voluntary isolated infection to low-risk individuals to increase herd immunity, etc) that can achieve both.

joe_the_user 7y ago
South Korea did extensive testing when they successfully eradicated the virus. As user rramach points out, Ioannidis cherry picks the data in many ways, including ignoring the extensive data of South Korea. Not did was Koreans' testing program extensively documented (by Korean scientific institutions, The Western press, and etc), we know they found most or the larger portion of cases because they were able to bring new infections and deaths down to zero. (e.g. require n95 masks in public, keeping the elderly at home, offer voluntary isolated infection to low-risk individuals to increase herd immunity, etc) These "get the economy going" measures are totally nuts. You know 10-20% of even fairly healthy people get pneumonia and require hospitalization for virus. Most young people survive but many of those surviving suffer permanent lung damage. Further, people between 50 and 65 make a huge contribution to the economy and taking them out for an extended period would be highly costly like all this is highly costly (but quarantine should eliminate the virus so could be even quick). Just much, quarantining just some people would require moving a vast number of people from place. IE, what happen with young people living with old people (as happens a lot). The movement of people from place to place would naturally ... spread the virus extensively. More over, where do you get the extra places for either the young living or the old leaving? The UK talked about plans, true but abandoned quickly when infection began because they are obviously impractical fantasies. Quarantining everyone is extremely simple and just requires doing what South Korea did but on a large scale.
- SpicyLemonZest 7y ago
  But see, this is the kind of exaggerated information Ioannidis is concerned about. South Korea has not brought new infections and deaths down to zero.
- irq11 7y ago
  ”Most young people survive but many of those surviving suffer permanent lung damage.” This is not true. You are repeating misinformation.
antpls 7y ago
For the record, in March 2018, 58 000 people died in Italy. We will see how many died this March 2020 : http://demo.istat.it/index_e.html http://demo.istat.it/index_e.html (see green section on the right, By Month) Also the following study from August 2019 (before covid19) shows that Italy has more deaths due to influenza every year than any other EU country : https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971219303285 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S120197121...
- robocat 7y ago
  > shows that Italy has more deaths due to influenza every year than any other EU country I’ve read that if an elderly person dies in Italy while they have the flu or coronavirus, then that is recorded as the cause of death. Some other countries put down other reasons like diabetes complications, or heart failure. Possibly due to pressure from insurance, or avoiding liability for iatrogenic diseases, or avoiding KPIs targeting lower death rates for infections in hospitals. You are jumping to conclusions based on a few numbers, without understanding the background of where those numbers come from or how to validly compare them between countries.
  - antpls 7y ago
    What proves me that you understand them better than I do?
    - robocat 7y ago
      Nothing. But you are the one making conclusions based on some data series. If Italy is an outlier, are there papers about it?

joe_the_user 7y ago

South Korea did extensive testing when they successfully eradicated the virus. As user rramach points out, Ioannidis cherry picks the data in many ways, including ignoring the extensive data of South Korea. Not did was Koreans' testing program extensively documented (by Korean scientific institutions, The Western press, and etc), we know they found most or the larger portion of cases because they were able to bring new infections and deaths down to zero. (e.g. require n95 masks in public, keeping the elderly at home, offer voluntary isolated infection to low-risk individuals to increase herd immunity, etc) These "get the economy going" measures are totally nuts. You know 10-20% of even fairly healthy people get pneumonia and require hospitalization for virus. Most young people survive but many of those surviving suffer permanent lung damage. Further, people between 50 and 65 make a huge contribution to the economy and taking them out for an extended period would be highly costly like all this is highly costly (but quarantine should eliminate the virus so could be even quick). Just much, quarantining just some people would require moving a vast number of people from place. IE, what happen with young people living with old people (as happens a lot). The movement of people from place to place would naturally ... spread the virus extensively. More over, where do you get the extra places for either the young living or the old leaving? The UK talked about plans, true but abandoned quickly when infection began because they are obviously impractical fantasies. Quarantining everyone is extremely simple and just requires doing what South Korea did but on a large scale.

SpicyLemonZest 7y ago
But see, this is the kind of exaggerated information Ioannidis is concerned about. South Korea has not brought new infections and deaths down to zero.
irq11 7y ago
”Most young people survive but many of those surviving suffer permanent lung damage.” This is not true. You are repeating misinformation.

antpls 7y ago

For the record, in March 2018, 58 000 people died in Italy. We will see how many died this March 2020 : http://demo.istat.it/index_e.html http://demo.istat.it/index_e.html (see green section on the right, By Month) Also the following study from August 2019 (before covid19) shows that Italy has more deaths due to influenza every year than any other EU country : https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971219303285 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S120197121...

robocat 7y ago
> shows that Italy has more deaths due to influenza every year than any other EU country I’ve read that if an elderly person dies in Italy while they have the flu or coronavirus, then that is recorded as the cause of death. Some other countries put down other reasons like diabetes complications, or heart failure. Possibly due to pressure from insurance, or avoiding liability for iatrogenic diseases, or avoiding KPIs targeting lower death rates for infections in hospitals. You are jumping to conclusions based on a few numbers, without understanding the background of where those numbers come from or how to validly compare them between countries.
- antpls 7y ago
  What proves me that you understand them better than I do?
  - robocat 7y ago
    Nothing. But you are the one making conclusions based on some data series. If Italy is an outlier, are there papers about it?