6 ms·
Let's check back on this piece in...2 weeks, say, when there are 10,000+ Corona deaths in the US. Well see how it ages then. Source: https://www.nytimes.com/in
by dannykwells 7y ago
Let's check back on this piece in...2 weeks, say, when there are 10,000+ Corona deaths in the US. Well see how it ages then.
Source:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/21/upshot/coronavirus-deaths-by-country.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/21/upshot/corona...
427× 16 =11102
- Medicalidiot 7y agoChina quarantined 700 million of its citizens for fun and it still killed thousands. I'm sure that they regret the policies they implemented right now as they've finally gotten a hold of the outbreak. Edit: I was being sarcastic here. China messed up the initial response but their draconian tactics worked well.
- treyfitty 7y agoWhy would they regret it? I don’t follow your reasoning. They got a hold of the outbreak precisely because they ramped up quarantining
- Medicalidiot 7y agoI was being sarcastic.... it never translates well over text.
- nate_meurer 7y agoI must have have a naturally sarcastic inner monologue, because your sarcasm came through loud and clear to me.
- Medicalidiot 7y agoI thought it was so outlandish that no one could actually believe it. Then I thought about my crazy uncle who still thinks this is a bioweapon released by the Chinese on its own citizens.
- dannykwells 7y agoYes, only thousands. The point of the quarantine was to avoid deaths of millions. China has flattened thoer curve, no one else has.
- clouddrover 7y agoSouth Korea has. It's still going up but it's flatter than it was: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
- clouddrover 7y agoThe number of coronavirus deaths is already over 10,000: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
- dannykwells 7y agoUpdated: comment was only for US since John is based at Stanford.
- usaar333 7y agoThat rate is highly unlikely to hold. There's enough stay in place restrictions in effect to drive it down after about a week or so. FWIW, at this point, it looks like NYC is going to take a huge hit and the other outbreaks (Seattle, California) will look mild comparitively.
- joe_the_user 7y agoWashington state doesn't have a statewide lockdown, I don't know if even Seattle has a lockdown. California is doing the best but there are still crowds defying the lockdown at beaches and parks. Just as much, grocery stores are open as usual and even with most people trying to do social distancing, I'm doubtful you're clamping that hard on the infection, unfortunately. I think the best is that when fatalities spike here in California, we're in better shape to intensify the lockdown.
- rbritton 7y agoWashington does as of 5:00 pm PDT today.
- deleted 7y ago[deleted]
- DoreenMichele 7y agoI've dug through everything I can find. I'm feeling really stupid at the moment, but I cannot find a confirmation of that 5pm start time, though it does appear to start today and "immediately." It runs through April 6, but could be extended. Tweet is from 6:50pm: https://twitter.com/GovInslee/status/1242267557295321090 https://twitter.com/GovInslee/status/1242267557295321090 https://medium.com/wagovernor/inslee-announces-stay-home-stay-healthy-order-4891a7511f5e https://medium.com/wagovernor/inslee-announces-stay-home-sta... https://www.governor.wa.gov/sites/default/files/proclamations/20-25%20Coronovirus%20Stay%20Safe-Stay%20Healthy%20%28tmp%29%20%28002%29.pdf https://www.governor.wa.gov/sites/default/files/proclamation...
- 7y ago
- Buttons840 7y agoI fear we will be well past 10,000 deaths in the US in 2 weeks.
- hartator 7y agoWell deaths in the US only for flu were 50,000 last year. Still 5x less.
- ClumsyPilot 7y agoCorvid 19 deaths are doubling every 3 days in US and a few other countries. Do the extrapolation.
- Dylan16807 7y agoTrillions will die. You can only extrapolate so far.
- listsfrin 7y agoPeople seem like computers these days: they only think in logarithms, they "forget" to add some common sense.
- antpls 7y agoEven in Italy, the National Health Institute said that 88% of the declared "dead by covid19" had in fact at least 1 or 2 other pre-morbidities. If a 80 years old dies from heart attack and is tested positive by covid19, it will count as "dead by covid19". The numbers we see in the news of "CFR" for the covid19 are, in my opinion, inaccurate. The number only shows the spread of the infection, not its actual fatality rate.
- deleted 7y ago[deleted]
- lifthrasiir 7y agoCFR is a death rate of the population with particular medical conditions by definition. It is a correct usage. CFR doesn't translate to the additional death rate, but it does contribute to the death rate by unspecified amount. In particular high enough CFR directly translates to the additional death rate when it exceeds the original crude death rate.
- mns 7y agoEpidemiology is not putting numbers in excel and running a formula to generate a chart. Which seems like what half the world is doing now. US has already the same number of cases that Italy had one week ago when it had 4000 deaths (only 500 for US at this point). So some data is wrong and you can't model every country in the world based on data that is just plain misleading (Italy). Median age of tested people in Italy is 13.3 years higher than the general population median age, in Germany, the difference is just 0.7. Stop treating Italy as being the only point of truth and other countries (like Germany) like the anomaly.
- glofish 7y agoI think people should be allowed to express a different opinion. We should criticize and point out mistakes, but let's not demonize. The world is complex and interdependent, overreacting can be just as bad as not doing anything, what we need to find is the right balance between the two approaches. If we check back and he was right then what? You, like everyone else, will be elated. Completely dismissing certain observations early on as 100% wrong is not the right approach. One has to navigate the path balancing the tradeoffs.