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This crisis is the first event in my lifetime that's given me any optimism about our ability, as a global civilization, to solve problems and get things done. I

by _bxg1 7y ago

This crisis is the first event in my lifetime that's given me any optimism about our ability, as a global civilization, to solve problems and get things done. I don't feel like we've seen humanity at its best in several decades. Shame it always takes a catastrophe (and an immediate one at that; see climate change) to bring it out.

captainbland 7y ago
I think it is basically inevitable that a cure/vaccine will be found. That's not to downplay it, obviously the teams involved will deserve huge congratulations and will have done something great and it is badly needed. But the real test is how we handle it until that cure/vaccine becomes available, which is certainly something that a lot of places are struggling with, particularly here in the UK where we spent weeks spectating on our neighbours struggling with it and racking up deaths (particularly in Italy) before realising that exponential growth also works here.
ehsankia 7y ago
I think it has the potential to, but so far, there hasn't really much of it, or have I been missing it? Obviously progress is slow, but I think there's also a lot of fluff being thrown around, so we won't really know for some time. I haven't noticed any extra amount of cooperation though between countries, more so than the usual.
- _bxg1 7y ago
  I guess I primarily mean the people on the ground. Not the politicians - the best that can be said about them is that they're getting out of the way (in some, not all cases) - but the doctors and nurses, the scientists, the grocery store workers, the companies converting their factories to make medical supplies, and yes, even the bureaucrats who are pushing this stuff through. There are still lots of people out there to be disappointed in, but we're also seeing those who do care about the greater good coming out of the woodwork and really taking real action, and it's inspiring.
  - DrAwdeOccarim 7y ago
    Not to bail Trump out because I have found his reactive leadership bad (all he had to do was get out of the way of the experts), but America--in my humble opinion--has always been bottom up. The idea that >300 million people can agree on anything always amazes me, and the design of the country is to allow as much autonomy to localities as possible while maintaining broad collaboration and cohesion. This is already shining where the US testing capacity has gone from basically zero to the highest in the world (>40k per day) in a matter of 2 weeks. Yes, the Federal government dropped the ball (tapping Scott Gottlieb instead of Pence would have made a big difference), but the private sector stepped up big. Two weeks from now I expect N95 masks, other PPE, and vents all being made in huge capacities. So back to your "people on the ground" comment. I totally agree. It's the bottom up Americanism that will get us through this, as usual. It reminds me of the famous Abba Eban quote often misattributed to Churchill, "Americans Will Always Do the Right Thing — After Exhausting All the Alternatives". This totally holds true right now, and likely always will. The really amazing thing is going to be three American companies proving through clinical trials in the next 6-8 months that we invented a new technology (genetic-based vaccines) that produced a functional vaccine by the end of the year (Moderna), that we have a potent anti-viral compound ready to use in two months (Giliad), and antibody therapy ready 8 months (Regeneron). That's nuts. If we go through the motions this time, we will be prepared to dramatically increase the speed of approvals and testing when the the next viral pandemic comes.
    - LMYahooTFY 7y ago
      >This is already shining where the US testing capacity has gone from basically zero to the highest in the world (>40k per day) in a matter of 2 weeks. Do you have any sources/links for this? I've struggled to find credible info.
      - DrAwdeOccarim 7y ago
        I found it here: https://twitter.com/johnrobb/status/1241555048540372992 https://twitter.com/johnrobb/status/1241555048540372992 But now that I look more closely, I can't find source data. Let me know if you find any more details.
- baxtr 7y ago
  Yeah, I agree, unfortunately. Best examples: To my best knowledge no other European country has pledged massive help to Italy. China did a bit.
  - IAmEveryone 7y ago
    Germany has sent a few hundred thousand masks and other equipment. But it’s obviously easier for China since they are past their peak. There are also some French patients being treated across the border, in both Switzerland and Germany.
    - odshoifsdhfs 7y ago
      This was after preventing mask supplies that were scheduled for other countries (Swiss company selling and masks travelling through Germany) to reach other countries I am 100% sure, if this didn't reach France, was an Italy/Spanish problem, the EU wouldn't give a shit about it and do nothing.
  - ArnoVW 7y ago
    While this is true, I wonder if this is not partly because the European countries were quite busy organising themselves and were anticipating an urgent but unknown need for their own population. China has a retrospective of three months and has stabilized the situation. They know what they are facing and the resources needed, and have even started to dismantle the temporary hospitals they set up in January. What can the individual European countries offer? They, like the Americans, have outsourced their production to China. Any masks, nurses or respirators they have, they will need themselves. They can offer 'money', which may not buy more masks but can help against the economic impacts. And this is what is happening. The EU has both released monetary aids, and indicated that fiscal restraint rules will be waived.
    - baxtr 7y ago
      You are probably right. I think they could have sent at least doctors and nurses to prepare for their own epidemic.
vkou 7y ago
> This crisis is the first event in my lifetime that's given me any optimism about our ability, as a global civilization, to solve problems and get things done. Based on what? What I see is the same scenario play out over and over again, from one country to another, delayed by a week, or two, or three, with most of them making the same mistakes that their predecessors made. Nobody in the West lifted a finger to prepare themselves until mid-February. We didn't jump-start mask production. We didn't start building hospitals. We didn't start building ventilators. If this is what the world's reaction to global crisis is going to be like, my sole reassurance is that I'll likely be dead before the worst of climate change hits.
- hnick 7y ago
  Too little too late sums it up in Australia. Schools are still open (there are good reasons, but by the time those reasons become not-good, it will be too late). At least the states and cities are taking over leadership where the federal level has failed.
  - to1y 7y ago
    What was expected? We've seen time and time again our politicians are incapable of action. Any moderately unexpected situation seems to be brushed under the rug or gets palmed off to the capable Canadians. The true 'dole bludgers' who have metastasized themselves in the sea of bullshit bureaucracy. Fine they steal from the country and waste tax payers funds incessantly. If they could atleast be capable of making decisions.
  - lern_too_spel 7y ago
    At the very least, absences should be excused for students whose parents are at home to watch them. Parents who must still go to work for essential jobs will still have some place to put their kids, but the amount of spreading going on in schools would be lower. Instead in California, absences were unexcused except for children already showing symptoms from sickness all the way until the day that schools were closed for everyone.
IAmEveryone 7y ago
Watching the US (from afar, luckily) is giving me “Rome is burning, while Nero watches (and/or sadistically tortures random servants)” vibes. Seeing that the Presidents approval rates are actually increasing gets me close to switching sides and rooting for the virus. At least some of the racists and the “Q” losers and the it’s-a-media-hoax-believers should end up winning Darwin Awards. Britain is basically run by someone uncomfortably close to, well, me, i. e. the sort of guy really into slatestarcodex, always willing to have some contrarian theory that is just a tiny bit too smart for itself (or, in their case, others) Meanwhile, the authoritarian ultra-capitalists have two months less to prepare, far lower GDP, and still manage better than all others. Yes, it’s encouraging to see people helping each other. Maybe some homegrown ventilators even work. But the latter just should not have been necessary, and I can’t shake the feeling that the believe you can build these machines from what’s left after your last trip to IKEA is fundamentally the same overconfidence and disdain for expertise that made people elect these populist idiots killing them now.
- selimthegrim 7y ago
  Taiwan is authoritarian ultra capitalist?
  - kevingadd 7y ago
    Taiwan was super authoritarian in recent memory [1], so it's understandable that someone would think it's still true (of course, it's not). Maybe the confusion is because some of their disease mitigation strategies were authoritarian, but that's pretty common in war/disaster scenarios. Every country turns authoritarian when they need people to shelter in place or need to force factories to retool to build war equipment or medical essentials. [1] In the late 1980s and early 1990s, the ROC transitioned from a one-party military dictatorship to a multi-party democracy with a semi-presidential system.
    - TeMPOraL 7y ago
      > Every country turns authoritarian when they need people to shelter in place or need to force factories to retool to build war equipment or medical essentials. Those who survive this pandemic will look back and wish it was true. Right now, neither the US nor the EU are authoritarian enough. There should have been lockdowns in place a week ago, actually enforced by the military. I'm surprised to find myself believing this, but at this point I think that, were a few of the mass gatherings in defiance of social distancing met with batons, and were one of two cases of breaking quarantine met with a bullet, the madness would stop and countries in the West would have a much better chance of containing the virus.
nikofeyn 7y ago
> This crisis is the first event in my lifetime that's given me any optimism about our ability, as a global civilization, to solve problems and get things done. would you mind elaborating? because i find it extremely difficult how one could hold such an optimistic and apparent naive opinion. from where i sit, this crisis is showing the exact opposite. there is very little international communication and cooperation, and even internal to countries, like in the u.s., there is very little communication and cooperation. aside from a few outliers, the while thing has just been wave after wave of delayed and reactive actions that were underprepared to begin with. people keep thinking we'll solve this with technology (the typical human way), but what would have been better is if everyone simply communicated, listened, and cooperated. the human race could not face a dumber enemy. think about it. if everyone on earth just sat still for a couple of weeks, this thing would just vanish. can you imagine a more simple foe? and yet, this thing is crippling econmies, healthcare, and more.
- funcDropShadow 7y ago
  If you are focused on the U.S., then I understand your sentiment. But if you look beyond, it is really promising. Medical science and biology are producing new scientific knowledge about CoViD-19 and SARS-Cov2 at break neck speed. That alone is amazing to see. On the other hand, you really see that people get it and that they have to do social distancing to help them and everybody else. On top of that you see, e.g. China helping European countries in their crisis. That is unprecedented. The outlook for the U.S. might be more grim, at least as seen from Europe. It seems pretty obvious that medicine as a business is not the right setup to tackle a pandemic. Germany moved into that direction into the last 20 years. And everybody is realizing the downsides of that move, now. Although it could be seen for 20 years if you bothered to look. Back to the U.S., I find it deeply worrying that people started to buy guns. Do they believe they could shoot the virus? Or do they expect looting and civil uproar? That would be the worst people could do in such a crisis. I hope it doesn't come to that. And finally, Trump. I think I don't have to write anything about him by now.
  - gingerlime 7y ago
    I know it’s OT but would love to understand more about the health insurance situation in Germany and what’s happened in the last 20 years. Ideally in English which is a big ask I guess. Moved to Germany in 2011 and still can’t work out the whole insurance thing (and don’t understand German enough to read and figure those nuances)
kevingadd 7y ago
This crisis has mostly been a massive demonstration of how capitalism undermines society's ability to prevent and cope with disasters. We're seeing individual people show their best while profit motive leads to people sabotaging others' hope of success. A few examples: * A particular politician prioritizing low numbers (to look good) over actual infection reduction * A particular government not issuing orders for needed equipment - we still haven't placed orders and handed money to for-profit ventilator manufacturers, so they can't afford to just manufacture more * A particular government failing to fund ongoing mask manufacturing to guarantee a stockpile in advance for pandemics despite being advised to do so, as a result manufacturers had to cut staff and lower capacity * For-profit hospitals being on the verge of running out of money due to treatment for uninsured patients not being funded * Governments having to contemplate sending out massive checks to citizens and/or provide financial assistance in exchange for employers not laying off all their staff * Price gouging for emergency essentials like masks and hand sanitizer, forcing local governments and marketplaces to act aggressively to punish it * Government officials delaying necessary containment measures like closing beaches or banning gatherings as an attempt to preserve local businesses at the expense of public health * Cruise ships... just cruise ships in general. The idea that they are still operational as floating incubators for hundreds of new cases is just obscene. * COVID-19 spreading more rapidly among the elderly in WA because care home workers have to work multiple jobs to pay rent, resulting in them taking it between care homes Other less-capitalist nations are still struggling with COVID-19 but capitalist responses to it have so far been wildly insufficient.
- TeMPOraL 7y ago
  It will be also a big blow for individual freedoms worldwide. When those of us who survive will look back at it, they won't be able to ignore the fact that sending police to beat up people at a few mass gathering on beaches and streets, and then putting military out to enforce quarantine measures, would result in exponentially less loss of life and damage to the economy.
  - kevingadd 7y ago
    Yeah, that is a very good point. The emergency reactions to societal failure (not entirely due to capitalism, but in some cases due to capitalism) are by nature very authoritarian, which leads to the erosion of normal governance. My home country is already putting in place emergency measures that are likely to last until after the emergency is over and are conveniently very useful for maintaining a grip on power. We've been looking at deploying the military too, which at the very least is going to increase tensions and potentially lead to unrest. I mourn the potential damage to democracy almost as much as I mourn the lives lost because democracy being severely damaged by this incident will hurt future generations.

by _bxg1 7y ago

captainbland 7y ago

I think it is basically inevitable that a cure/vaccine will be found. That's not to downplay it, obviously the teams involved will deserve huge congratulations and will have done something great and it is badly needed. But the real test is how we handle it until that cure/vaccine becomes available, which is certainly something that a lot of places are struggling with, particularly here in the UK where we spent weeks spectating on our neighbours struggling with it and racking up deaths (particularly in Italy) before realising that exponential growth also works here.

ehsankia 7y ago

I think it has the potential to, but so far, there hasn't really much of it, or have I been missing it? Obviously progress is slow, but I think there's also a lot of fluff being thrown around, so we won't really know for some time. I haven't noticed any extra amount of cooperation though between countries, more so than the usual.

_bxg1 7y ago
I guess I primarily mean the people on the ground. Not the politicians - the best that can be said about them is that they're getting out of the way (in some, not all cases) - but the doctors and nurses, the scientists, the grocery store workers, the companies converting their factories to make medical supplies, and yes, even the bureaucrats who are pushing this stuff through. There are still lots of people out there to be disappointed in, but we're also seeing those who do care about the greater good coming out of the woodwork and really taking real action, and it's inspiring.
- DrAwdeOccarim 7y ago
  Not to bail Trump out because I have found his reactive leadership bad (all he had to do was get out of the way of the experts), but America--in my humble opinion--has always been bottom up. The idea that >300 million people can agree on anything always amazes me, and the design of the country is to allow as much autonomy to localities as possible while maintaining broad collaboration and cohesion. This is already shining where the US testing capacity has gone from basically zero to the highest in the world (>40k per day) in a matter of 2 weeks. Yes, the Federal government dropped the ball (tapping Scott Gottlieb instead of Pence would have made a big difference), but the private sector stepped up big. Two weeks from now I expect N95 masks, other PPE, and vents all being made in huge capacities. So back to your "people on the ground" comment. I totally agree. It's the bottom up Americanism that will get us through this, as usual. It reminds me of the famous Abba Eban quote often misattributed to Churchill, "Americans Will Always Do the Right Thing — After Exhausting All the Alternatives". This totally holds true right now, and likely always will. The really amazing thing is going to be three American companies proving through clinical trials in the next 6-8 months that we invented a new technology (genetic-based vaccines) that produced a functional vaccine by the end of the year (Moderna), that we have a potent anti-viral compound ready to use in two months (Giliad), and antibody therapy ready 8 months (Regeneron). That's nuts. If we go through the motions this time, we will be prepared to dramatically increase the speed of approvals and testing when the the next viral pandemic comes.
  - LMYahooTFY 7y ago
    >This is already shining where the US testing capacity has gone from basically zero to the highest in the world (>40k per day) in a matter of 2 weeks. Do you have any sources/links for this? I've struggled to find credible info.
    - DrAwdeOccarim 7y ago
      I found it here: https://twitter.com/johnrobb/status/1241555048540372992 https://twitter.com/johnrobb/status/1241555048540372992 But now that I look more closely, I can't find source data. Let me know if you find any more details.
baxtr 7y ago
Yeah, I agree, unfortunately. Best examples: To my best knowledge no other European country has pledged massive help to Italy. China did a bit.
- IAmEveryone 7y ago
  Germany has sent a few hundred thousand masks and other equipment. But it’s obviously easier for China since they are past their peak. There are also some French patients being treated across the border, in both Switzerland and Germany.
  - odshoifsdhfs 7y ago
    This was after preventing mask supplies that were scheduled for other countries (Swiss company selling and masks travelling through Germany) to reach other countries I am 100% sure, if this didn't reach France, was an Italy/Spanish problem, the EU wouldn't give a shit about it and do nothing.
- ArnoVW 7y ago
  While this is true, I wonder if this is not partly because the European countries were quite busy organising themselves and were anticipating an urgent but unknown need for their own population. China has a retrospective of three months and has stabilized the situation. They know what they are facing and the resources needed, and have even started to dismantle the temporary hospitals they set up in January. What can the individual European countries offer? They, like the Americans, have outsourced their production to China. Any masks, nurses or respirators they have, they will need themselves. They can offer 'money', which may not buy more masks but can help against the economic impacts. And this is what is happening. The EU has both released monetary aids, and indicated that fiscal restraint rules will be waived.
  - baxtr 7y ago
    You are probably right. I think they could have sent at least doctors and nurses to prepare for their own epidemic.

vkou 7y ago

> This crisis is the first event in my lifetime that's given me any optimism about our ability, as a global civilization, to solve problems and get things done. Based on what? What I see is the same scenario play out over and over again, from one country to another, delayed by a week, or two, or three, with most of them making the same mistakes that their predecessors made. Nobody in the West lifted a finger to prepare themselves until mid-February. We didn't jump-start mask production. We didn't start building hospitals. We didn't start building ventilators. If this is what the world's reaction to global crisis is going to be like, my sole reassurance is that I'll likely be dead before the worst of climate change hits.

hnick 7y ago
Too little too late sums it up in Australia. Schools are still open (there are good reasons, but by the time those reasons become not-good, it will be too late). At least the states and cities are taking over leadership where the federal level has failed.
- to1y 7y ago
  What was expected? We've seen time and time again our politicians are incapable of action. Any moderately unexpected situation seems to be brushed under the rug or gets palmed off to the capable Canadians. The true 'dole bludgers' who have metastasized themselves in the sea of bullshit bureaucracy. Fine they steal from the country and waste tax payers funds incessantly. If they could atleast be capable of making decisions.
- lern_too_spel 7y ago
  At the very least, absences should be excused for students whose parents are at home to watch them. Parents who must still go to work for essential jobs will still have some place to put their kids, but the amount of spreading going on in schools would be lower. Instead in California, absences were unexcused except for children already showing symptoms from sickness all the way until the day that schools were closed for everyone.

IAmEveryone 7y ago

Watching the US (from afar, luckily) is giving me “Rome is burning, while Nero watches (and/or sadistically tortures random servants)” vibes. Seeing that the Presidents approval rates are actually increasing gets me close to switching sides and rooting for the virus. At least some of the racists and the “Q” losers and the it’s-a-media-hoax-believers should end up winning Darwin Awards. Britain is basically run by someone uncomfortably close to, well, me, i. e. the sort of guy really into slatestarcodex, always willing to have some contrarian theory that is just a tiny bit too smart for itself (or, in their case, others) Meanwhile, the authoritarian ultra-capitalists have two months less to prepare, far lower GDP, and still manage better than all others. Yes, it’s encouraging to see people helping each other. Maybe some homegrown ventilators even work. But the latter just should not have been necessary, and I can’t shake the feeling that the believe you can build these machines from what’s left after your last trip to IKEA is fundamentally the same overconfidence and disdain for expertise that made people elect these populist idiots killing them now.

selimthegrim 7y ago
Taiwan is authoritarian ultra capitalist?
- kevingadd 7y ago
  Taiwan was super authoritarian in recent memory [1], so it's understandable that someone would think it's still true (of course, it's not). Maybe the confusion is because some of their disease mitigation strategies were authoritarian, but that's pretty common in war/disaster scenarios. Every country turns authoritarian when they need people to shelter in place or need to force factories to retool to build war equipment or medical essentials. [1] In the late 1980s and early 1990s, the ROC transitioned from a one-party military dictatorship to a multi-party democracy with a semi-presidential system.
  - TeMPOraL 7y ago
    > Every country turns authoritarian when they need people to shelter in place or need to force factories to retool to build war equipment or medical essentials. Those who survive this pandemic will look back and wish it was true. Right now, neither the US nor the EU are authoritarian enough. There should have been lockdowns in place a week ago, actually enforced by the military. I'm surprised to find myself believing this, but at this point I think that, were a few of the mass gatherings in defiance of social distancing met with batons, and were one of two cases of breaking quarantine met with a bullet, the madness would stop and countries in the West would have a much better chance of containing the virus.

nikofeyn 7y ago

> This crisis is the first event in my lifetime that's given me any optimism about our ability, as a global civilization, to solve problems and get things done. would you mind elaborating? because i find it extremely difficult how one could hold such an optimistic and apparent naive opinion. from where i sit, this crisis is showing the exact opposite. there is very little international communication and cooperation, and even internal to countries, like in the u.s., there is very little communication and cooperation. aside from a few outliers, the while thing has just been wave after wave of delayed and reactive actions that were underprepared to begin with. people keep thinking we'll solve this with technology (the typical human way), but what would have been better is if everyone simply communicated, listened, and cooperated. the human race could not face a dumber enemy. think about it. if everyone on earth just sat still for a couple of weeks, this thing would just vanish. can you imagine a more simple foe? and yet, this thing is crippling econmies, healthcare, and more.

funcDropShadow 7y ago
If you are focused on the U.S., then I understand your sentiment. But if you look beyond, it is really promising. Medical science and biology are producing new scientific knowledge about CoViD-19 and SARS-Cov2 at break neck speed. That alone is amazing to see. On the other hand, you really see that people get it and that they have to do social distancing to help them and everybody else. On top of that you see, e.g. China helping European countries in their crisis. That is unprecedented. The outlook for the U.S. might be more grim, at least as seen from Europe. It seems pretty obvious that medicine as a business is not the right setup to tackle a pandemic. Germany moved into that direction into the last 20 years. And everybody is realizing the downsides of that move, now. Although it could be seen for 20 years if you bothered to look. Back to the U.S., I find it deeply worrying that people started to buy guns. Do they believe they could shoot the virus? Or do they expect looting and civil uproar? That would be the worst people could do in such a crisis. I hope it doesn't come to that. And finally, Trump. I think I don't have to write anything about him by now.
- gingerlime 7y ago
  I know it’s OT but would love to understand more about the health insurance situation in Germany and what’s happened in the last 20 years. Ideally in English which is a big ask I guess. Moved to Germany in 2011 and still can’t work out the whole insurance thing (and don’t understand German enough to read and figure those nuances)

kevingadd 7y ago

This crisis has mostly been a massive demonstration of how capitalism undermines society's ability to prevent and cope with disasters. We're seeing individual people show their best while profit motive leads to people sabotaging others' hope of success. A few examples: * A particular politician prioritizing low numbers (to look good) over actual infection reduction * A particular government not issuing orders for needed equipment - we still haven't placed orders and handed money to for-profit ventilator manufacturers, so they can't afford to just manufacture more * A particular government failing to fund ongoing mask manufacturing to guarantee a stockpile in advance for pandemics despite being advised to do so, as a result manufacturers had to cut staff and lower capacity * For-profit hospitals being on the verge of running out of money due to treatment for uninsured patients not being funded * Governments having to contemplate sending out massive checks to citizens and/or provide financial assistance in exchange for employers not laying off all their staff * Price gouging for emergency essentials like masks and hand sanitizer, forcing local governments and marketplaces to act aggressively to punish it * Government officials delaying necessary containment measures like closing beaches or banning gatherings as an attempt to preserve local businesses at the expense of public health * Cruise ships... just cruise ships in general. The idea that they are still operational as floating incubators for hundreds of new cases is just obscene. * COVID-19 spreading more rapidly among the elderly in WA because care home workers have to work multiple jobs to pay rent, resulting in them taking it between care homes Other less-capitalist nations are still struggling with COVID-19 but capitalist responses to it have so far been wildly insufficient.

TeMPOraL 7y ago
It will be also a big blow for individual freedoms worldwide. When those of us who survive will look back at it, they won't be able to ignore the fact that sending police to beat up people at a few mass gathering on beaches and streets, and then putting military out to enforce quarantine measures, would result in exponentially less loss of life and damage to the economy.
- kevingadd 7y ago
  Yeah, that is a very good point. The emergency reactions to societal failure (not entirely due to capitalism, but in some cases due to capitalism) are by nature very authoritarian, which leads to the erosion of normal governance. My home country is already putting in place emergency measures that are likely to last until after the emergency is over and are conveniently very useful for maintaining a grip on power. We've been looking at deploying the military too, which at the very least is going to increase tensions and potentially lead to unrest. I mourn the potential damage to democracy almost as much as I mourn the lives lost because democracy being severely damaged by this incident will hurt future generations.