4 ms·

This kind of idea is being abused to argue that people are way over-reacting to covad19. There are a large number of people with these existing conditions. I do

This kind of idea is being abused to argue that people are way over-reacting to covad19. There are a large number of people with these existing conditions. I don't think this kind of information helps us. There are still lots of people under 50 getting it.

dkarl 7y ago
I feel like the Covid-19 crisis is causing people to bring out all the classic arguments for authoritarianism and present them as novel ideas generated by this context, as if there weren't centuries of history and debate attached to them.
api 7y ago
Also note that Italy has a substantial elderly population, skewing the numbers.
- wolfram74 7y ago
  And the US has a substantial obese population, which will skew their numbers.
- sparrish 7y ago
  And also the highest rate per capita of smokers in the EU.
aledalgrande 7y ago
The sample is 70+ year old, but the conclusion is not that people in that age range are the most at risk, it's that if you have a pre-existing condition, you are at risk. I don't think anyone is trying to say this is an overreaction. On the contrary, if you or any of your loved ones have a condition, you should be extra careful. At the end of the report linked by other commenters (https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Report-COVID-2019_17_marzo-v2.pdf https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Report-C...) it also says that the few <40yo people who died also had existing preconditions.
gridlockd 7y ago
This information is crucial, we need to know who to isolate in the long term. If these shutdowns continue for too long, we'll be facing a bigger economic disaster than the great depression. People will turn into animals. In contrast to that, if everybody above 70 somehow died immediately, it would be a major relief, economically speaking. If you put two and two together, if this goes on for too long, there will be no more "civil society". You may think #boomerremover is a cruel joke. I think it's quite serious.
- tsimionescu 7y ago
  The most important thing right now is to keep as many people as possible from getting the disease at once. Anything else is secondary. Also, letting the disease run rampant will not result in everybody above 70 somehow dying immediately, it will result in millions of people of all ages dying. The disease is NOT exclusive to old people, and a collapsing medical system will kill far more people than just the elderly. Compared to this, the risk to the economy, especially going by current measures (not Wuhan-style locked-in-your-home quarantine) is minimal.
  - gridlockd 7y ago
    I'm not talking about "right now", I'm talking about long term. > Also, letting the disease run rampant will not result in everybody above 70 somehow dying immediately, it will result in millions of people of all ages dying. It's a simplification, obviously. People who have a severe infection and who are not treated will die pretty much immediately, however. In Italy, where the system already collapsed and no effective treatment is possible, the vast majority is over 70, younger cases else are outliers. Of course some younger people will also die. The "people of all ages will die" narrative is important to keep people's attention up - but it's not going to work in the long run. The younger you are, the less likely you are to die, that's a fact. The younger you are, the less risk averse you, that's another fact. > Compared to this, the risk to the economy, especially going by current measures (not Wuhan-style locked-in-your-home quarantine) is minimal. That entirely depends on how long these measures are in place.
- joe_the_user 7y ago
codazoda 7y ago
High Blood Pressure is listed as one of the conditions. 100M people in the US had high blood pressure in 2018. The population was 328M. That's nearly 1/3rd of us having just one of these "serious medical conditions". https://www.heart.org/en/news/2018/05/01/more-than-100-million-americans-have-high-blood-pressure-aha-says https://www.heart.org/en/news/2018/05/01/more-than-100-milli... http://usapopulation2018.com/ http://usapopulation2018.com/
ramblerman 7y ago
I think we should present the facts we have. Your handwaving this away with unfactual info is worse imo. > There are still lots of people under 50 getting it. Getting it perhaps, but only 0.8% of deaths in Italy were under 50. [1] [1] https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Report-COVID-2019_17_marzo-v2.pdf https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Report-C...
- Reedx 7y ago
  Exactly. What's up with all this nonsense that we should hide or suppress facts. We can't make intelligent decisions without knowing them.
- joe_the_user 7y ago
  The thing is, that is Italy and arguably in the US, there are more people under 50 with serious health problems; diabetes is wide spread as just one example. I believe Italy had a much higher smoking rate someone in their 80s there could have very weak lungs, again the US profile could be different. Headline: "COVID-19: Millennials can and are falling seriously sick from coronavirus, says new data" https://nationalpost.com/news/world/covid-19-millennials-can-and-are-falling-seriously-sick-from-coronavirus-says-new-data https://nationalpost.com/news/world/covid-19-millennials-can...
  - lstroud 7y ago
    You don’t think a country where people wear masks to cope with the smog might have existing respiratory comorbidities?
rossdavidh 7y ago
I think it could be very useful if, say, we get a vaccine, but don't have near enough supply to vaccinate everyone. By knowing who is at most risk, we could target a limited supply to who is most at risk. This would be the opposite of normal thinking, which is to vaccinate the healthy people so that the unhealthiest don't have to get vaccinated, since any vaccine has some small chance of being problematic if you've already got issues. But, in this case, if we cannot produce enough vaccine fast enough, it could be that targeting those most at risk would be the right call.

dkarl 7y ago

I feel like the Covid-19 crisis is causing people to bring out all the classic arguments for authoritarianism and present them as novel ideas generated by this context, as if there weren't centuries of history and debate attached to them.

api 7y ago

Also note that Italy has a substantial elderly population, skewing the numbers.

wolfram74 7y ago
And the US has a substantial obese population, which will skew their numbers.
sparrish 7y ago
And also the highest rate per capita of smokers in the EU.

aledalgrande 7y ago

The sample is 70+ year old, but the conclusion is not that people in that age range are the most at risk, it's that if you have a pre-existing condition, you are at risk. I don't think anyone is trying to say this is an overreaction. On the contrary, if you or any of your loved ones have a condition, you should be extra careful. At the end of the report linked by other commenters (https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Report-COVID-2019_17_marzo-v2.pdf https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Report-C...) it also says that the few <40yo people who died also had existing preconditions.

gridlockd 7y ago

This information is crucial, we need to know who to isolate in the long term. If these shutdowns continue for too long, we'll be facing a bigger economic disaster than the great depression. People will turn into animals. In contrast to that, if everybody above 70 somehow died immediately, it would be a major relief, economically speaking. If you put two and two together, if this goes on for too long, there will be no more "civil society". You may think #boomerremover is a cruel joke. I think it's quite serious.

tsimionescu 7y ago
The most important thing right now is to keep as many people as possible from getting the disease at once. Anything else is secondary. Also, letting the disease run rampant will not result in everybody above 70 somehow dying immediately, it will result in millions of people of all ages dying. The disease is NOT exclusive to old people, and a collapsing medical system will kill far more people than just the elderly. Compared to this, the risk to the economy, especially going by current measures (not Wuhan-style locked-in-your-home quarantine) is minimal.
- gridlockd 7y ago
  I'm not talking about "right now", I'm talking about long term. > Also, letting the disease run rampant will not result in everybody above 70 somehow dying immediately, it will result in millions of people of all ages dying. It's a simplification, obviously. People who have a severe infection and who are not treated will die pretty much immediately, however. In Italy, where the system already collapsed and no effective treatment is possible, the vast majority is over 70, younger cases else are outliers. Of course some younger people will also die. The "people of all ages will die" narrative is important to keep people's attention up - but it's not going to work in the long run. The younger you are, the less likely you are to die, that's a fact. The younger you are, the less risk averse you, that's another fact. > Compared to this, the risk to the economy, especially going by current measures (not Wuhan-style locked-in-your-home quarantine) is minimal. That entirely depends on how long these measures are in place.
joe_the_user 7y ago

codazoda 7y ago

High Blood Pressure is listed as one of the conditions. 100M people in the US had high blood pressure in 2018. The population was 328M. That's nearly 1/3rd of us having just one of these "serious medical conditions". https://www.heart.org/en/news/2018/05/01/more-than-100-million-americans-have-high-blood-pressure-aha-says https://www.heart.org/en/news/2018/05/01/more-than-100-milli... http://usapopulation2018.com/ http://usapopulation2018.com/

ramblerman 7y ago

I think we should present the facts we have. Your handwaving this away with unfactual info is worse imo. > There are still lots of people under 50 getting it. Getting it perhaps, but only 0.8% of deaths in Italy were under 50. [1] [1] https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Report-COVID-2019_17_marzo-v2.pdf https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Report-C...

Reedx 7y ago
Exactly. What's up with all this nonsense that we should hide or suppress facts. We can't make intelligent decisions without knowing them.
joe_the_user 7y ago
The thing is, that is Italy and arguably in the US, there are more people under 50 with serious health problems; diabetes is wide spread as just one example. I believe Italy had a much higher smoking rate someone in their 80s there could have very weak lungs, again the US profile could be different. Headline: "COVID-19: Millennials can and are falling seriously sick from coronavirus, says new data" https://nationalpost.com/news/world/covid-19-millennials-can-and-are-falling-seriously-sick-from-coronavirus-says-new-data https://nationalpost.com/news/world/covid-19-millennials-can...
- lstroud 7y ago
  You don’t think a country where people wear masks to cope with the smog might have existing respiratory comorbidities?

rossdavidh 7y ago

I think it could be very useful if, say, we get a vaccine, but don't have near enough supply to vaccinate everyone. By knowing who is at most risk, we could target a limited supply to who is most at risk. This would be the opposite of normal thinking, which is to vaccinate the healthy people so that the unhealthiest don't have to get vaccinated, since any vaccine has some small chance of being problematic if you've already got issues. But, in this case, if we cannot produce enough vaccine fast enough, it could be that targeting those most at risk would be the right call.