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A vaccine was developed in haste for an outbreak of swine flu in 1976 (CDC feared it was a repeat of 1918 flu) and about 45 million Americans received it but 45

A vaccine was developed in haste for an outbreak of swine flu in 1976 (CDC feared it was a repeat of 1918 flu) and about 45 million Americans received it but 450 people developed GBS (Guillaine-Barre Syndrome) as a result. Going on a hunch or unproven stuff is simply going to give the anti-vaxxer idiots further ammo

ApolloFortyNine 7y ago
Taking your numbers as fact, that would be a .001% death rate. Coronavirus has a death rate ranging from .6-2% (overall), varying drastically to upwards of 20% with age. It's not a hard call to make.
- tibbydudeza 7y ago
  https://www.discovermagazine.com/health/the-public-health-legacy-of-the-1976-swine-flu-outbreak https://www.discovermagazine.com/health/the-public-health-le... An abject failure all because of one President's obsession on getting re-elected ... kind of reminds me of the current occupant in the WH.
- wtallis 7y ago
  > Taking your numbers as fact, that would be a .001% death rate. Death rate for GBS is more like 7.5%, not 100%. Though for today's challenge, the relevant stat may be that ~15% of GBP patients end up needing a ventilator. But even that wouldn't be a problem if we had such a vaccine for this coronavirus.
gnulinux 7y ago
I don't think even a scientific study would be effective against odds as small as 450 out of 45 million. Vaccines are tested by hundreds, or thousands of people before mass produced. Catching an event as unlikely as this doesn't seem possible. One would hope animal models would be helpful, but what if vaccine only causes GBS to humans?
pbhjpbhj 7y ago
That's a pretty good rate, ~10x GBS than you would expect deaths from regular flu. GBS is listed as a side-effect of UK's Fluenztetra flu shot IIRC. Most people reportedly fully recover from GBS.
nradov 7y ago
I suspect people who don't understand vaccines may have reflexively downvoted your comment but in fact this is a real risk. There is also concern over repeating the debacle with the respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). Vaccine development will continue but certain steps can't be rushed.

ApolloFortyNine 7y ago

Taking your numbers as fact, that would be a .001% death rate. Coronavirus has a death rate ranging from .6-2% (overall), varying drastically to upwards of 20% with age. It's not a hard call to make.

tibbydudeza 7y ago
https://www.discovermagazine.com/health/the-public-health-legacy-of-the-1976-swine-flu-outbreak https://www.discovermagazine.com/health/the-public-health-le... An abject failure all because of one President's obsession on getting re-elected ... kind of reminds me of the current occupant in the WH.
wtallis 7y ago
> Taking your numbers as fact, that would be a .001% death rate. Death rate for GBS is more like 7.5%, not 100%. Though for today's challenge, the relevant stat may be that ~15% of GBP patients end up needing a ventilator. But even that wouldn't be a problem if we had such a vaccine for this coronavirus.

gnulinux 7y ago

I don't think even a scientific study would be effective against odds as small as 450 out of 45 million. Vaccines are tested by hundreds, or thousands of people before mass produced. Catching an event as unlikely as this doesn't seem possible. One would hope animal models would be helpful, but what if vaccine only causes GBS to humans?

pbhjpbhj 7y ago

That's a pretty good rate, ~10x GBS than you would expect deaths from regular flu. GBS is listed as a side-effect of UK's Fluenztetra flu shot IIRC. Most people reportedly fully recover from GBS.

nradov 7y ago

I suspect people who don't understand vaccines may have reflexively downvoted your comment but in fact this is a real risk. There is also concern over repeating the debacle with the respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). Vaccine development will continue but certain steps can't be rushed.