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I have in-laws in Nigeria. We just tipped them off a couple of days ago that now might be a good time to buy some Chloroquine and keep at the house, in case the

I have in-laws in Nigeria. We just tipped them off a couple of days ago that now might be a good time to buy some Chloroquine and keep at the house, in case the situation gets worse. This is a commonly known medicine down there, that you can get from pharmacies without prescription. But based on what we're seeing so far, it seems plausible that this virus prefers cooler northern climates. So hopefully it will turn out to be an unnecessary precaution.

WhiteSage 7y ago
In the east coast of Spain we have had great weathee (25+ degrees celsius) and it didn't seem to greatly influence transmission speed :(
- devdas 7y ago
  The numbers so far suggest you need tropical heat and humidity to slow down transmission speed. That would need to be 35C+ weather, and no air conditioning.
  - whatch 7y ago
    Before I've read you message I was sure that dry air slows down transmission speed. But indeed, it's humidity https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3551767 https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3551767
stareatgoats 7y ago
The rapid transmission in industrialized countries is most likely helped by the daily indoor concentration of people in the big cities, during commute, in large schools and workplaces. Large cities in Africa will surely get it to some extent, but the spread might be slower since Africans don't spend as much time indoors, and the rural communities are already practicing "social distancing" to some degree.
- kabouseng 7y ago
  I think you have a very Hollywood view of African societies...
  - stareatgoats 7y ago
    Having lived in African countries for more than 5 years I don't rely on Hollywood for my sources.
- dmos62 7y ago
  I'd offer the Ebola outbreak as a counter-example.
  - stareatgoats 7y ago
    Ebola is different: It does not spread over air like the Corona virus. The Ebola virus " spreads to people initially through direct contact with the blood, body fluids and tissues of animals. Ebola virus then spreads to other people through direct contact with body fluids of a person who is sick with or has died from EVD". [0] [0] https://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/about.html https://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/about.html
  - maxerickson 7y ago
    Only 2 Ebola outbreaks have had more than 1000 infected people. This thing is in the early stages still and there are already 7x more recorded cases than the largest Ebola outbreak.
- greggman3 7y ago
  Nirobi, Metro Area Population 10 million https://www.civitatis.com/en/nairobi/ https://www.civitatis.com/en/nairobi/ Compare: Largest cities in Africa https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cities_in_Africa_by_population https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cities_in_Africa_by_po... Vs Largest cities in USA https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_cities_by_population#United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_cities_b...
ianai 7y ago
Citation needed on it preferring colder climates. My own quick glimpse of the global numbers showed plenty of equatorial cases per capita. Many aren’t rigorously tested populations, too.
- codebolt 7y ago
  It's something I first read from the Goldman Sachs client call notes that has been circulating: https://www.forbes.com/sites/abrambrown/2020/03/16/the-private-goldman-sachs-coronavirus-meeting-thats-setting-the-internet-on-fire/#18155bc950dd https://www.forbes.com/sites/abrambrown/2020/03/16/the-priva... Certainly not the best citation, and I have no idea where GS gets their analyses, but seems plausible enough that I'm at least hoping there could be some truth to it. See e.g. India, the virus doesn't seem to have taken off there despite a few early cases. If it's wrong, I fear things could get really bad, especially in heavily populated cities like Lagos.
- matwood 7y ago
  I think this presentation is a great source of facts. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1DqfSnlaW6N3GBc5YKyBOCGPfdqOsqk1G/view https://drive.google.com/file/d/1DqfSnlaW6N3GBc5YKyBOCGPfdqO... Weather: Maybe 10 oF increases the doubling time 2x (steady-state reduction in exterior virus levels by 50% per Pubmed 22312351, plus reducing time × concentration of people indoors). I don't think a paper about SARS-CoV-2 and temperature has been written yet (that I've seen), but people are hoping it reacts like SARS-CoV. See here: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22312351 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22312351 Keep in mind, that doesn't mean zero cases in hot weather, just that it is less contagious.
  - ianai 7y ago
    “ It may also explain why some Asian countries in tropical area (such as Malaysia, Indonesia or Thailand) with high temperature and high relative humidity environment did not have major community outbreaks of SARS.” Iirc, Maylasia has a pretty strong breakout on its hands. They recorded their first death today and are at something like 670 cases. I think their double rate was 2-3 days. Edit-it’s 1 day today. See link. Not good news I think for the hypothesis. https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
swader999 7y ago
Sorry, I'm now picturing email offers from Nigerians that I would openly welcome.
blaser-waffle 7y ago
> But based on what we're seeing so far, it seems plausible that this virus prefers cooler northern climates. So hopefully it will turn out to be an unnecessary precaution. Wuhan has temps around 50F-75F (~15C-22C). Certainty not hot, but not a cooler climate given how it's still winter in this hemisphere. Italy and Spain aren't known for being especially cold either, mountainous areas notwithstanding.
- vinay427 7y ago
  All of these locations are still cooler northern climates. I agree that they're not exactly cold.

WhiteSage 7y ago

In the east coast of Spain we have had great weathee (25+ degrees celsius) and it didn't seem to greatly influence transmission speed :(

devdas 7y ago
The numbers so far suggest you need tropical heat and humidity to slow down transmission speed. That would need to be 35C+ weather, and no air conditioning.
- whatch 7y ago
  Before I've read you message I was sure that dry air slows down transmission speed. But indeed, it's humidity https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3551767 https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3551767

stareatgoats 7y ago

The rapid transmission in industrialized countries is most likely helped by the daily indoor concentration of people in the big cities, during commute, in large schools and workplaces. Large cities in Africa will surely get it to some extent, but the spread might be slower since Africans don't spend as much time indoors, and the rural communities are already practicing "social distancing" to some degree.

kabouseng 7y ago
I think you have a very Hollywood view of African societies...
- stareatgoats 7y ago
  Having lived in African countries for more than 5 years I don't rely on Hollywood for my sources.
dmos62 7y ago
I'd offer the Ebola outbreak as a counter-example.
- stareatgoats 7y ago
  Ebola is different: It does not spread over air like the Corona virus. The Ebola virus " spreads to people initially through direct contact with the blood, body fluids and tissues of animals. Ebola virus then spreads to other people through direct contact with body fluids of a person who is sick with or has died from EVD". [0] [0] https://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/about.html https://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/about.html
- maxerickson 7y ago
  Only 2 Ebola outbreaks have had more than 1000 infected people. This thing is in the early stages still and there are already 7x more recorded cases than the largest Ebola outbreak.
greggman3 7y ago
Nirobi, Metro Area Population 10 million https://www.civitatis.com/en/nairobi/ https://www.civitatis.com/en/nairobi/ Compare: Largest cities in Africa https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cities_in_Africa_by_population https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cities_in_Africa_by_po... Vs Largest cities in USA https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_cities_by_population#United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_cities_b...

ianai 7y ago

Citation needed on it preferring colder climates. My own quick glimpse of the global numbers showed plenty of equatorial cases per capita. Many aren’t rigorously tested populations, too.

codebolt 7y ago
It's something I first read from the Goldman Sachs client call notes that has been circulating: https://www.forbes.com/sites/abrambrown/2020/03/16/the-private-goldman-sachs-coronavirus-meeting-thats-setting-the-internet-on-fire/#18155bc950dd https://www.forbes.com/sites/abrambrown/2020/03/16/the-priva... Certainly not the best citation, and I have no idea where GS gets their analyses, but seems plausible enough that I'm at least hoping there could be some truth to it. See e.g. India, the virus doesn't seem to have taken off there despite a few early cases. If it's wrong, I fear things could get really bad, especially in heavily populated cities like Lagos.
matwood 7y ago
I think this presentation is a great source of facts. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1DqfSnlaW6N3GBc5YKyBOCGPfdqOsqk1G/view https://drive.google.com/file/d/1DqfSnlaW6N3GBc5YKyBOCGPfdqO... Weather: Maybe 10 oF increases the doubling time 2x (steady-state reduction in exterior virus levels by 50% per Pubmed 22312351, plus reducing time × concentration of people indoors). I don't think a paper about SARS-CoV-2 and temperature has been written yet (that I've seen), but people are hoping it reacts like SARS-CoV. See here: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22312351 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22312351 Keep in mind, that doesn't mean zero cases in hot weather, just that it is less contagious.
- ianai 7y ago
  “ It may also explain why some Asian countries in tropical area (such as Malaysia, Indonesia or Thailand) with high temperature and high relative humidity environment did not have major community outbreaks of SARS.” Iirc, Maylasia has a pretty strong breakout on its hands. They recorded their first death today and are at something like 670 cases. I think their double rate was 2-3 days. Edit-it’s 1 day today. See link. Not good news I think for the hypothesis. https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

swader999 7y ago

Sorry, I'm now picturing email offers from Nigerians that I would openly welcome.

blaser-waffle 7y ago

> But based on what we're seeing so far, it seems plausible that this virus prefers cooler northern climates. So hopefully it will turn out to be an unnecessary precaution. Wuhan has temps around 50F-75F (~15C-22C). Certainty not hot, but not a cooler climate given how it's still winter in this hemisphere. Italy and Spain aren't known for being especially cold either, mountainous areas notwithstanding.

vinay427 7y ago
All of these locations are still cooler northern climates. I agree that they're not exactly cold.