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Saying that covid-19 caused the crash is like saying that the assassination of the archduke caused WW1. The accuracy of these kinds of statements depends on ho

Saying that covid-19 caused the crash is like saying that the assassination of the archduke caused WW1. The accuracy of these kinds of statements depends on how you define "causation". If you follow this down, it turns into a deep philosophical question. Also, consider that there are always people (especially on HN) predicting stock market crashes. I'm not sure it makes sense to ascribe the ability to predict the market to people who happened to be right.

freehunter 7y ago
That’s a great analogy. The assassination caused a military fight that wouldn’t have happened otherwise, but the conflicting alliances and leaders itching to use their new military power would have caused a major war anyway. The spark didn’t matter as much as the real systemic issues, but for a layman it’s a good enough cause. Something would have popped the bubble, and I’d argue the real cause of the start of the downturn was OPEC and the bottom falling out of the oil market. Then COVID set in and made things a million times worse, making a quick recovery nearly impossible. That’s what will be remembered by lay people, while experts will hopefully remember you can only pop a bubble if there is a bubble to be popped. And OPEC/COVID didn’t create the bubble, they just popped it.
- dustingetz 7y ago
  It would have happened otherwise
  - freehunter 7y ago
    The July Ultimatum would have happened, or WWI in general would have happened? I’m not arguing that WWI would have been avoided, in fact I said it would have happened regardless. The July Ultimatum could have been avoided, but again if you read through my entire comment you’ll see I believe WWI would have happened anyway.
    - dustingetz 7y ago
      You're right I jumped you sorry
- NikolaeVarius 7y ago
  "The assassination caused a military fight that wouldn’t have happened otherwise, but the conflicting alliances and leaders itching to use their new military power would have caused a major war anyway." 1) Europe was a powder keg. The assassination was a single item is a list of reasons a war happened. 2) The escalation of war to involve multiple countries happened only after multiple attempts at de-escalation. Saying generally that leaders wanted to go to war is a massive oversimplification of the start of the war
mywittyname 7y ago
In situations like this, many people realize that we are in a mutual game of hot potato. The people involved are each trying to figure out what everyone else is using as a timer, so they aren't the ones left holding the bag. Everyone knows about the student debt crisis. Everyone knows that public companies were borrowing to pay for stock buybacks. Everyone knows about the rampant de-regulation and rent seeking. And nobody thinks any of these issues will be addressed in the coming years. It's going to be the 1980s all over again.
- michaelt 7y ago
  I have a theory that in a democracy, a status quo that takes $10 from every citizen to give $100,000 to a much smaller fixed subset of citizens will never be changed. Because the small subset have a lot of motivation to advocate for the status quo, and each individual outside the subset has only a small motivation to advocate against it.
  - SpicyLemonZest 7y ago
    I don't know if that has much to do with democracy. In many historical countries, it was seen as the God-given right of aristocrats to take $10 from every citizen so they can have $100,000.
    - arthurcolle 7y ago
      Sounds like governments now
- ilaksh 7y ago
  Reminds me of the line from Margin Call when the boss says he doesn't hear anything anymore, so the music must have stopped.
JPKab 7y ago
I don't necessarily agree with the assessment that Covid was just a spark. Certainly there are many underlying factors, but a massive change in consumer behavior with a somewhat open-ended timeline is itself much worse than many of the other issues in the economy.
- slantaclaus 7y ago
  But, there is the fact that right now stores are running out of everything. Online sales must be very strong right now as well. Sales are booming?
  - taborj 7y ago
    I'm not a financial...well, anything, but it's my interpretation that most large stock market drops are due to massive selloffs. Basically, people who own the stock are trying to unload it before something bad happens to those stocks. The result is something bad happens to those stocks, and things start crashing. Like in Sneakers: People think a bank is financially shaky Consequence: people start to withdraw their money Result: Pretty soon it is financially shaky In other words, stores running out of things and/or online sales being strong aren't, by themselves, the cause of major market movements right now; it's speculation about what'll happen tomorrow, and making sure you don't own any of the stocks if & when it tanks. Which incidentally causes the stocks to tank.
    - arthurcolle 7y ago
      Don't even ask the question. The answer is yes, it's priced in. Think Amazon will beat the next earnings? That's already been priced in. You work at the drive thru for Mickey D's and found out that the burgers are made of human meat? Priced in. You think insiders don't already know that? The market is an all powerful, all encompassing being that knows the very inner workings of your subconscious before you were even born. Your very existence was priced in decades ago when the market was valuing Standard Oil's expected future earnings based on population growth that would lead to your birth, what age you would get a car, how many times you would drive your car every week, how many times you take the bus/train, etc. Anything you can think of has already been priced in, even the things you aren't thinking of. You have no original thoughts. Your consciousness is just an illusion, a product of the omniscent market. Free will is a myth. The market sees all, knows all and will be there from the beginning of time until the end of the universe (the market has already priced in the heat death of the universe). So please, before you make a post somewhere asking whether AAPL has priced in earpods 11 sales or whatever, know that it has already been priced in and don't ask such a dumb fucking question again.
deleted 7y ago
[deleted]

freehunter 7y ago

That’s a great analogy. The assassination caused a military fight that wouldn’t have happened otherwise, but the conflicting alliances and leaders itching to use their new military power would have caused a major war anyway. The spark didn’t matter as much as the real systemic issues, but for a layman it’s a good enough cause. Something would have popped the bubble, and I’d argue the real cause of the start of the downturn was OPEC and the bottom falling out of the oil market. Then COVID set in and made things a million times worse, making a quick recovery nearly impossible. That’s what will be remembered by lay people, while experts will hopefully remember you can only pop a bubble if there is a bubble to be popped. And OPEC/COVID didn’t create the bubble, they just popped it.

dustingetz 7y ago
It would have happened otherwise
- freehunter 7y ago
  The July Ultimatum would have happened, or WWI in general would have happened? I’m not arguing that WWI would have been avoided, in fact I said it would have happened regardless. The July Ultimatum could have been avoided, but again if you read through my entire comment you’ll see I believe WWI would have happened anyway.
  - dustingetz 7y ago
    You're right I jumped you sorry
NikolaeVarius 7y ago
"The assassination caused a military fight that wouldn’t have happened otherwise, but the conflicting alliances and leaders itching to use their new military power would have caused a major war anyway." 1) Europe was a powder keg. The assassination was a single item is a list of reasons a war happened. 2) The escalation of war to involve multiple countries happened only after multiple attempts at de-escalation. Saying generally that leaders wanted to go to war is a massive oversimplification of the start of the war

mywittyname 7y ago

In situations like this, many people realize that we are in a mutual game of hot potato. The people involved are each trying to figure out what everyone else is using as a timer, so they aren't the ones left holding the bag. Everyone knows about the student debt crisis. Everyone knows that public companies were borrowing to pay for stock buybacks. Everyone knows about the rampant de-regulation and rent seeking. And nobody thinks any of these issues will be addressed in the coming years. It's going to be the 1980s all over again.

michaelt 7y ago
I have a theory that in a democracy, a status quo that takes $10 from every citizen to give $100,000 to a much smaller fixed subset of citizens will never be changed. Because the small subset have a lot of motivation to advocate for the status quo, and each individual outside the subset has only a small motivation to advocate against it.
- SpicyLemonZest 7y ago
  I don't know if that has much to do with democracy. In many historical countries, it was seen as the God-given right of aristocrats to take $10 from every citizen so they can have $100,000.
  - arthurcolle 7y ago
    Sounds like governments now
ilaksh 7y ago
Reminds me of the line from Margin Call when the boss says he doesn't hear anything anymore, so the music must have stopped.

JPKab 7y ago

I don't necessarily agree with the assessment that Covid was just a spark. Certainly there are many underlying factors, but a massive change in consumer behavior with a somewhat open-ended timeline is itself much worse than many of the other issues in the economy.

slantaclaus 7y ago
But, there is the fact that right now stores are running out of everything. Online sales must be very strong right now as well. Sales are booming?
- taborj 7y ago
  I'm not a financial...well, anything, but it's my interpretation that most large stock market drops are due to massive selloffs. Basically, people who own the stock are trying to unload it before something bad happens to those stocks. The result is something bad happens to those stocks, and things start crashing. Like in Sneakers: People think a bank is financially shaky Consequence: people start to withdraw their money Result: Pretty soon it is financially shaky In other words, stores running out of things and/or online sales being strong aren't, by themselves, the cause of major market movements right now; it's speculation about what'll happen tomorrow, and making sure you don't own any of the stocks if & when it tanks. Which incidentally causes the stocks to tank.
  - arthurcolle 7y ago
    Don't even ask the question. The answer is yes, it's priced in. Think Amazon will beat the next earnings? That's already been priced in. You work at the drive thru for Mickey D's and found out that the burgers are made of human meat? Priced in. You think insiders don't already know that? The market is an all powerful, all encompassing being that knows the very inner workings of your subconscious before you were even born. Your very existence was priced in decades ago when the market was valuing Standard Oil's expected future earnings based on population growth that would lead to your birth, what age you would get a car, how many times you would drive your car every week, how many times you take the bus/train, etc. Anything you can think of has already been priced in, even the things you aren't thinking of. You have no original thoughts. Your consciousness is just an illusion, a product of the omniscent market. Free will is a myth. The market sees all, knows all and will be there from the beginning of time until the end of the universe (the market has already priced in the heat death of the universe). So please, before you make a post somewhere asking whether AAPL has priced in earpods 11 sales or whatever, know that it has already been priced in and don't ask such a dumb fucking question again.

deleted 7y ago

[deleted]