8 ms·

Why would the company need to exclusively sell to the US? Is the supply expected to be limited? Once the drug is discovered, can't it be licensed around the wor

Why would the company need to exclusively sell to the US? Is the supply expected to be limited? Once the drug is discovered, can't it be licensed around the world for mass production?

onetimemanytime 7y ago
1 week delay can mean 1 million deaths
- MegaButts 7y ago
  Please share your data and calculations for this claim. I understand how exponential growth works, and I realize there is an incubation period, but this really just feels like unnecessary fear mongering considering we're at less than 6000 deaths worldwide as of now. https://talksub.com/covid19 https://talksub.com/covid19
  - Certhas 7y ago
    I agree it's hyperbolic, but the numbers are staggering and quoting the current deaths are really misleading in this respect. This will affect small percentages of everyone. A million deaths world wide, with a disease that is expected to reach 60+% of the population is not much. It's the difference in the death rate of 0.02%. In other words, if a sufficiently early intervention manages to reduce the death rate from 1% to 0.98%, that's a million lifes saved. However, the sensitive dependence on initial conditions only applies to things that happen during exponential growth. By the time a vaccine hits (according to many reputable sources about a year from now) we will be in a very different stage of the disease anyway.
  - gameswithgo 7y ago
    So you expect some mechanism to prevent the exponential growth then? Which?
- CydeWeys 7y ago
  The earliest a vaccine will come is a year from now. The good majority of deaths will happen before then. So a one week delay won't be that costly.
  - djsumdog 7y ago
    ..and it should come years from now. Hearing some researchers talk about fast tracking a SARS-cov2 vaccine in 18 ~24 months seems terribly unsafe. Vaccines need extensive animal testing following by phased human trials, less we have a repeat of the Lyme disease vaccine. General vaccines for Corona virus families should have started years ago. H1N1 had a vaccine because it was a known flu that was researched previously. It was just the ramp-up/production time that was the issue there.
    - nangz 7y ago
      The Lyme disease vaccine: "By 2001, 1.4 million doses of the vaccine had been distributed, but the FDA’s Vaccine Adverse Events Reporting System only picked up on 59 reports of arthritis." Rates of arthritis roughly at population baseline level. People who talk about going through the motions of 2 years of animal trials have zero perspective. In wartime, this pedantry needs to be chucked our the window. Do the high yield human tests asap using heroic volunteers, and do it fast.
      - Ididntdothis 7y ago
        “using heroic volunteers,” I assume you are one of them?
    - rriepe 7y ago
      Moving too fast and not being careful could be what gave us Covid-19. If it comes out that it was a product of SARS/MERS research then the tone of these "move fast" conversations will certainly change.
      - jacquesm 7y ago
        Please take your conspiracy stuff somewhere else.
radicalbyte 7y ago
If your competitor can't restart his economy but you can then you have a massive advantage over them.
- klipt 7y ago
  That sounds like a terrible way to play the iterated prisoners dilemma. If the USA tries to screw over Germany like this, Germany could equally try screw over the USA - and they're the one with the vaccine company.
  - TeMPOraL 7y ago
    China is going to win this. USA mishandles the pandemic, blocks the EU-US transit way after it could help anything, and now pulls stunts like this. Meanwhile, China is restarting their economy, and is scoring points by sending teams of doctors and hundreds of tons of medical equipment to countries around the world, including two in EU. When the dust settles, I think Europe may end up reconsidering who to side with.
    - ngcc_hk 7y ago
      All along by not stopping in earlier stage. Good lesson to learn how to eliminate your competitor in the long run are we?
      - deleted 7y ago
        [deleted]
    - agoodthrowaway 7y ago
      China’s handling of this is the reason we are all in this situation. They had a chance to contain it and they chose to shut down information that would have stopped the spread. Now the Chinese government are some kind of heroes?
      - radicalbyte 7y ago
waterside81 7y ago
Supplies for vaccinces of any kind are always subject to constraints and so deliveries are prioritized by the highest bidder. I know for example the flu vaccine gets delivered to the US and Japan first from a certain French pharmaceutical because they pay (by far) the highest prices. Of all G7 countries, Canada pays the least for the flu vaccine so they get the the vaccines last.
- radicalbyte 7y ago
  The US has a massive amount of standing capacity to produce vaccines. All they need is a license to produce it. Given the threat posed by the Corona virus this is exactly what must happen.
  - marcosdumay 7y ago
    Honestly, if the company refuses to license, nearly no country will just comply and keep watching people die. So, no not even a license is required.
    - patall 7y ago
      This so much! The technology to built such a vaccine will not be that complex, its only the information about what works and is safe that is expensive. Who ever thinks otherwise has no idea of how big pharma works and why it is expensive.
  - mgolawala 7y ago
    Agreed, but why would it need to be done "exclusively" in the U.S?
    - radicalbyte 7y ago
      That's not what I mean. There is no need for Trump to do this; once someone develops a vaccine then they should be able to license it for a normal fee. The US have a massive army of chickens ready to produce eggs which are used to produce vaccines in the order of millions per month. They just need the vaccine and they can produce it. I hope that Europe are in the same situation.
LordHumungous 7y ago
Yeah, isn't the point of a vaccine to immunize as many people as possible, not just those in one country? If you don't immunize globally it won't work as well. This administration has pulled a lot of dumb stunts but this one might take the cake.
theferalrobot 7y ago
It's unfortunately fake news, if you read the Reuters report they cite as evidence there is no mention of exclusivity just funding. In fact the exact opposite is said. > The U.S. government has spoken with many (more than 25) companies that claim they can help with a vaccine. Most of these companies already received seed funding from U.S. investors... any solution found would be shared with the world https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-germany-usa/germany-tries-to-stop-u-s-from-luring-away-firm-seeking-coronavirus-vaccine-idUSKBN2120IV https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-german...
- Abimelex 7y ago
  it's not fake news. Please read the updated article from the link you posted above: > Welt am Sonntag also quoted an unidentified German government source as saying Trump was trying to secure the scientists’ work exclusively, and would do anything to get a vaccine for the United States, “but only for the United States.”
  - theferalrobot 7y ago
    Yeah, so there is an unsubstantiated german government source and then the very next sentence the company denies it themselves: >CureVac issued a statement on Sunday, in which it said: “The company rejects current rumors of an acquisition”. Finally they give a quote from a US rep: > The U.S. government has spoken with many (more than 25) companies that claim they can help with a vaccine. Most of these companies already received seed funding from U.S. investors... any solution found would be shared with the world
    - madez 7y ago
      The company CureVac only denied rumours that it will be bought, it did nor deny claims that the Trump administration approached them and tried to buy exclusive access to the vaccine.
vsl 7y ago
Ramping up production of a new drug is typically an involved, lengthy process. Supply of any drug is going to be severely limited when needed most.

Why would the company need to exclusively sell to the US? Is the supply expected to be limited? Once the drug is discovered, can't it be licensed around the world for mass production?

onetimemanytime 7y ago

1 week delay can mean 1 million deaths

MegaButts 7y ago
Please share your data and calculations for this claim. I understand how exponential growth works, and I realize there is an incubation period, but this really just feels like unnecessary fear mongering considering we're at less than 6000 deaths worldwide as of now. https://talksub.com/covid19 https://talksub.com/covid19
- Certhas 7y ago
  I agree it's hyperbolic, but the numbers are staggering and quoting the current deaths are really misleading in this respect. This will affect small percentages of everyone. A million deaths world wide, with a disease that is expected to reach 60+% of the population is not much. It's the difference in the death rate of 0.02%. In other words, if a sufficiently early intervention manages to reduce the death rate from 1% to 0.98%, that's a million lifes saved. However, the sensitive dependence on initial conditions only applies to things that happen during exponential growth. By the time a vaccine hits (according to many reputable sources about a year from now) we will be in a very different stage of the disease anyway.
- gameswithgo 7y ago
  So you expect some mechanism to prevent the exponential growth then? Which?
CydeWeys 7y ago
The earliest a vaccine will come is a year from now. The good majority of deaths will happen before then. So a one week delay won't be that costly.
- djsumdog 7y ago
  ..and it should come years from now. Hearing some researchers talk about fast tracking a SARS-cov2 vaccine in 18 ~24 months seems terribly unsafe. Vaccines need extensive animal testing following by phased human trials, less we have a repeat of the Lyme disease vaccine. General vaccines for Corona virus families should have started years ago. H1N1 had a vaccine because it was a known flu that was researched previously. It was just the ramp-up/production time that was the issue there.
  - nangz 7y ago
    The Lyme disease vaccine: "By 2001, 1.4 million doses of the vaccine had been distributed, but the FDA’s Vaccine Adverse Events Reporting System only picked up on 59 reports of arthritis." Rates of arthritis roughly at population baseline level. People who talk about going through the motions of 2 years of animal trials have zero perspective. In wartime, this pedantry needs to be chucked our the window. Do the high yield human tests asap using heroic volunteers, and do it fast.
    - Ididntdothis 7y ago
      “using heroic volunteers,” I assume you are one of them?
  - rriepe 7y ago
    Moving too fast and not being careful could be what gave us Covid-19. If it comes out that it was a product of SARS/MERS research then the tone of these "move fast" conversations will certainly change.
    - jacquesm 7y ago
      Please take your conspiracy stuff somewhere else.

radicalbyte 7y ago

If your competitor can't restart his economy but you can then you have a massive advantage over them.

klipt 7y ago
That sounds like a terrible way to play the iterated prisoners dilemma. If the USA tries to screw over Germany like this, Germany could equally try screw over the USA - and they're the one with the vaccine company.
- TeMPOraL 7y ago
  China is going to win this. USA mishandles the pandemic, blocks the EU-US transit way after it could help anything, and now pulls stunts like this. Meanwhile, China is restarting their economy, and is scoring points by sending teams of doctors and hundreds of tons of medical equipment to countries around the world, including two in EU. When the dust settles, I think Europe may end up reconsidering who to side with.
  - ngcc_hk 7y ago
    All along by not stopping in earlier stage. Good lesson to learn how to eliminate your competitor in the long run are we?
    - deleted 7y ago
      [deleted]
  - agoodthrowaway 7y ago
    China’s handling of this is the reason we are all in this situation. They had a chance to contain it and they chose to shut down information that would have stopped the spread. Now the Chinese government are some kind of heroes?
    - radicalbyte 7y ago

waterside81 7y ago

Supplies for vaccinces of any kind are always subject to constraints and so deliveries are prioritized by the highest bidder. I know for example the flu vaccine gets delivered to the US and Japan first from a certain French pharmaceutical because they pay (by far) the highest prices. Of all G7 countries, Canada pays the least for the flu vaccine so they get the the vaccines last.

radicalbyte 7y ago
The US has a massive amount of standing capacity to produce vaccines. All they need is a license to produce it. Given the threat posed by the Corona virus this is exactly what must happen.
- marcosdumay 7y ago
  Honestly, if the company refuses to license, nearly no country will just comply and keep watching people die. So, no not even a license is required.
  - patall 7y ago
    This so much! The technology to built such a vaccine will not be that complex, its only the information about what works and is safe that is expensive. Who ever thinks otherwise has no idea of how big pharma works and why it is expensive.
- mgolawala 7y ago
  Agreed, but why would it need to be done "exclusively" in the U.S?
  - radicalbyte 7y ago
    That's not what I mean. There is no need for Trump to do this; once someone develops a vaccine then they should be able to license it for a normal fee. The US have a massive army of chickens ready to produce eggs which are used to produce vaccines in the order of millions per month. They just need the vaccine and they can produce it. I hope that Europe are in the same situation.

LordHumungous 7y ago

Yeah, isn't the point of a vaccine to immunize as many people as possible, not just those in one country? If you don't immunize globally it won't work as well. This administration has pulled a lot of dumb stunts but this one might take the cake.

theferalrobot 7y ago

It's unfortunately fake news, if you read the Reuters report they cite as evidence there is no mention of exclusivity just funding. In fact the exact opposite is said. > The U.S. government has spoken with many (more than 25) companies that claim they can help with a vaccine. Most of these companies already received seed funding from U.S. investors... any solution found would be shared with the world https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-germany-usa/germany-tries-to-stop-u-s-from-luring-away-firm-seeking-coronavirus-vaccine-idUSKBN2120IV https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-german...

Abimelex 7y ago
it's not fake news. Please read the updated article from the link you posted above: > Welt am Sonntag also quoted an unidentified German government source as saying Trump was trying to secure the scientists’ work exclusively, and would do anything to get a vaccine for the United States, “but only for the United States.”
- theferalrobot 7y ago
  Yeah, so there is an unsubstantiated german government source and then the very next sentence the company denies it themselves: >CureVac issued a statement on Sunday, in which it said: “The company rejects current rumors of an acquisition”. Finally they give a quote from a US rep: > The U.S. government has spoken with many (more than 25) companies that claim they can help with a vaccine. Most of these companies already received seed funding from U.S. investors... any solution found would be shared with the world
  - madez 7y ago
    The company CureVac only denied rumours that it will be bought, it did nor deny claims that the Trump administration approached them and tried to buy exclusive access to the vaccine.

vsl 7y ago

Ramping up production of a new drug is typically an involved, lengthy process. Supply of any drug is going to be severely limited when needed most.