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All interesting but you just can't compare a Flu in 1918 with today. The list is endless of what we didn't have in 1918, from computers to do DNA sequencing to
by sschueller 7y ago
All interesting but you just can't compare a Flu in 1918 with today.
The list is endless of what we didn't have in 1918, from computers to do DNA sequencing to even testing the way we do today.
- matwood 7y agoJust basic hygiene is much better than in 1918. I think it's instructive to look at the Spanish Flu, but I agree that too many people are using it to draw direct comparisons. With respect to viral spread, many things are greatly improved today as you mention, but some are worse (such as the ease of global travel).
- poooogles 7y ago>The list is endless of what we didn't have in 1918, from computers to do DNA sequencing to even testing the way we do today. And the vast majority is useless to people when you've got 100x more patients than you can deal with.
- sschueller 7y agoChina was able to build a 645,000-square-foot medical facility in 10 days with 30 ICU units and 1000 beds. Coordinating such a feat in such a short time would not have been possible in 1918.
- jfkebwjsbx 7y agoKeyword: China. Not many countries (any?) have the capability to build things as fast as China does. And even if a country has them, China is the source of so many supplies that they will simply keep them for themselves. Let this be a lesson to avoid dependencies on a single entity.
- TheNorthman 7y ago> that they will simply keep them for themselves Not true, China has sent, and are continuing to do so, aid to, amongst others, Italy and Spain [1], including 100k respirators [2]. [1]: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-spain-aid/china-offers-aid-to-spain-to-fight-coronavirus-spanish-government-source-idUSKBN20Z27G https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-spain-... [2]: https://www.corriere.it/politica/20_marzo_10/coronavirus-mille-respiratori-cina-telefonata-maio-wang-yi-faa5f50a-62b6-11ea-a693-c7191bf8b498.shtml https://www.corriere.it/politica/20_marzo_10/coronavirus-mil...
- Xelbair 7y agoIt kinda simpler to do if you have all the manufacturing under your control(as west moved all production to china), and have construction companies used to such rapid development(building useless buildings for sole purpose of keeping people employed)
- fock 7y agowell, the ICU units are the main problem here. I guess other countries would choose to upgrade existing rooms here. And a 1000 beds in rooms with drywall separation - we did this in Germany for the refugees and (maybe contrary to China) we have a relative abundance of existing superstructures (communal gyms, old military sites)...
- hef19898 7y agoWe also have tons of old, maybe obsolete I don't knw, military and emergency stuff sitting in warehouses for things like that from the cold war. My impression is that all measures currently being taken are there make sure we don't need to go to these extremes.
- Someone 7y agoThat’s less than one bed per million heads, country-wise. I think the militaries of many rich countries can do the same today, scaled for population (they will use containers, but that’s what was used for that Chinese hospital, too) I also think many countries could do something similar (ignoring technical progress) in 1918, given they had had ample practice in world war 1.
- onetimemanytime 7y ago>> China was able to build a 645,000-square-foot medical facility in 10 days with 30 ICU units and 1000 beds. Coordinating such a feat in such a short time would not have been possible in 1918. While its a great feat--and China is prob the only country that can do it--that's nothing if we get hundreds of millions infected with a virulent version. 30 ICU units might serve a town with 35000 people
- gvjddbnvdrbv 7y agoOf course it was. We built battleships in weeks then.
- greedo 7y agoNot quite. We built Liberty ships in extremely fast timeframes, but more substantial ships took far longer. The long lead time components could take a year or more.
- bart_spoon 7y agoWell the US is struggling just figuring out how to test for the disease on anything but the smallest of scales, so I doubt anything like that is replicable here.
- ethbro 7y agoGenetic sequencing and RT-PCR are still pretty useful. You're essentially making the claim that having electricity is worthless, if there isn't enough for everyone to run a heater. Apples and oranges.
- TheOtherHobbes 7y agoHaving electricity is worthless if there isn't enough for anyone to run a heater, because it's all being used to run a protein folding simulation no one needs. It's about intelligent use of strategic resources, not the fact that those resources exist at all. It's not obvious that we're better at intelligent use of strategic resources than we were a century ago. Our economic systems promote brutal winner-takes-all internal competition, not strategic cooperation, and that makes them ridiculously brittle when they have to deal with an unexpected stressor.
- hef19898 7y agoAssuming that we are as stupid at using strategic resources as our ancestors back in 1918, we do have a lot more of them. With much easier coordination and communication. and mch higher degree of automation, requiring an order of magnitude smaller work force to keep things running.
- dsun180 7y agoAlso we have some disadvantages we didn't had 1918. Like most people living in dense cities. Or it is harder to force people into quarantine.
- falcor84 7y ago>harder to force people into quarantine I don't think that's true, case in point being the (eventual) Chinese response in Wuhan, which appears to be extremely effective (if you trust their figures). It's all about government determination, which is mostly missing now, just as it was then, based on the article.
- usrusr 7y agoAnd supply chains! There are many things that a 1918 city could manufacture in an emergency that a 2020 city can't.
- fock 7y agoexample? I guess if you wanted it, the 2020 city can manufacture anything it could in 1918...
- leadingthenet 7y agoCould it? We often no longer have random factories waiting around, ready to be repurposed. Neither do we have well functioning internal supply chains for the needed raw materials. I don't think people truly understand just how dependent any given country is on global trade (and especially Chinese manufacturing).
- avip 7y agoWhat make the diff is sanitation and effective communication, not DNA sequencing.
- deleted 7y ago[deleted]
- DSingularity 7y agoAs the article notes, most the deaths of the Spanish flu were due to the bacterial infections which subsequently emerged in the patients. These would be prevented by modern antibiotics.
- jeltz 7y agoNot all of them. People die in the west even today from bacterial pneumonia caused by the flu.
- ethbro 7y ago"Not all of them" is a pretty odd spin on the difference of discovering Penicillin. The antibacterial drugs we have nowadays are fundamentally different than the whole lack thereof in 1918.
- blaser-waffle 7y agoThey sure do, but in small numbers. Mostly the old or infirm. A nasty flu virus like COVID will push those numbers but they're still outliers, doubly so with modern medicine.
- deleted 7y ago[deleted]
- Fragoel2 7y agoI think this article sums up quite effectively the differences between now and then: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/07/coronavirus-reasons-to-be-reassured https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/07/coronavirus-re...
- everybodyknows 7y ago> This article was amended on 7 March 2020. An earlier version wrongly stated that “a solution of ethanol, hydrogen peroxide and bleach will disinfect surfaces" Hydrogen peroxide and ethanol, when sprayed into a combustion chamber, make a dandy rocket propellant. Mix 4:1, H2O2:ethanol. Theoretical specific impulse of 245 seconds. Source: table from poster published by Rocketdyne division of North American Aviation Inc, early '60s (gift from Dad) Reader confidence in the author's scientific chops somewhat diminished.
- nitrogen 7y agoIt was probably supposed to be "OR" rather than "AND".
- OscarTheGrinch 7y agoYes, but we are now more populous and densely packed, somewhat negating out technological progress.
- heavenlyblue 7y agoIt was World War I raging at the time, how more densely packed can you be than a bunch of soldiers sitting in a mudded trench?
- bluGill 7y agoWhile we are more populous, because of smaller families and urban sprawl we are less densely packed. The above applies to the US, and to a lesser extent Europe. In Asia is probably isn't true for various reasons.
- DyslexicAtheist 7y agocounterpoint: what percentage of the world population has access to that?
- coldtea 7y agoWhen you die from a disease it doesn't really matter what gadgetry is available in your era though...
- COGlory 7y agoNot to mention influenza has a segmented genome that makes it exceptionally good at mutating, whereas Corona viruses have much more stable genomes, comparatively.
- notacoward 7y agoYes, you can compare. There are differences - there are always differences - but there are also similarities. Any reasonably smart person can pick out some signal from the noise, if they just try. Meanwhile, those who do not learn the lessons of history, etc. And contrarians (using the polite term) are gonna do their thing too, no matter how injurious, because its fun for them.
- koheripbal 7y agoThis thread is too vague to be meaningful.
- pas 7y agoThe basics are the same. If it spreads (R0 > 1) and the number of sick people in the hospitals grow beyond some limit you will have a lot of problems. No fancy high-tech thing is going to help if it isn't a rapidly deployable cure. Plus, on top of all that tech the good old politics seems the same. Many countries botched testing, too little too late. So great we had its RNA code online in a matter of days, and even had success stories here and there if some dickheads can't mange the coordinated response.
- nogabebop23 7y agoIt was also far easier to prevent global travel, specifically individuals, like we have today. The changes cut both ways...