4 ms·

If Italy is the second oldest country in the world after Japan, how do they have 800 deaths compared to 16 in Japan? Something about those numbers seems off. Is

If Italy is the second oldest country in the world after Japan, how do they have 800 deaths compared to 16 in Japan? Something about those numbers seems off. Is it because Japan's elderly population tend to live in rural areas compared to Italy's or something else societally related?

DyslexicAtheist 7y ago
meh. I've been married to a Japanese for over 2 decades now, and lived in Tokyo for many years including when Fukushima happened. I wouldn't trust Japanese politicians with their reported numbers any more as I'd trust China or the US. There is one difference in Japan to Italy that might explain the lower infection rates: it's socially accepted to wear face masks (not only since covid but since the 90ies actually!)
- magicsmoke 7y ago
  Even if the numbers aren't reliable, reports of Japanese intensive care units being overrun aren't easy to hide, but Japanese hospitals don't seem to be under the same pressure as hospitals in Italy. Making mask wearing more acceptable might be a cultural adjustment humanity has to make as we become more urbanized and globalized if it'll help reduce the severity of disease transmission. Looks like Japan's stumbled onto a very useful societal adaptation.
  - Aeolun 7y ago
    Japan has a lot of intensive care units. I guess it comes with having a generally older population.
    - tooltalk 7y ago
      but not compared to other developed countries (except England): [1] [2] Germany 3.7 24.6 France 3.3 9.3 England 2.7 3.3 USA 2.4 20 Canada 2.4 13.5 Japan 2.2 4 to 5 1. Ratio of physicians to patients (per 1,000 population) 2. Number of ICU beds (per 100,000 population)
      - Aeolun 7y ago
        Where did you get these numbers? I’m fairly certain I’ve seen Japan being ridiculously high in these numbers before. Edit: Never mind, that was total number of hospital beds. The number of ICU units is really small. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00134-015-4165-7 https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00134-015-4165-...
      - zjs 7y ago
        Do you have a source for those numbers? They differ significantly from https://stats.oecd.org/index.aspx?queryid=30183 https://stats.oecd.org/index.aspx?queryid=30183, but perhaps your source is more reliable. Edit: nevermind, I misunderstood the definition of "Curative care (acute care) beds in hospitals".
        Al-Khwarizmi 7y ago
        Now that you understood it, can you explain what the difference is? It's not obvious to me either.
  - tooltalk 7y ago
    Japan's problem is a bit different -- it's estimated that there are 30+K old folks dying unnoticed in solitude every year (Kodokushi) in Japan, even without the Wuhan virus. As cynical as it may sound, that may be why Japan doesn't even bother testing their citizens for the virus. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/30/world/asia/japan-lonely-deaths-the-end.html https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/30/world/asia/japan-lonely-d...
- jeeeeb 7y ago
  FWIW. My wife is Japanese and I lived in Japan through Fukushima as well. A lot of people seem to think that Japan must somehow have a higher infection rate but I haven't seen any evidence that this is true. For all the docileness of the mainstream media and the lame-duck politics it is a free and democratic society. The government couldn't hide a mass outbreak of corona virus anymore than it has been able to hide any other scandal. In fact almost certainly less given the levels of public interest. The Ministry of Health and Welfare publishes updated statistics daily (https://www.mhlw.go.jp/stf/seisakunitsuite/bunya/0000164708_00001.html https://www.mhlw.go.jp/stf/seisakunitsuite/bunya/0000164708_... -- in Japanese). looking at the current stats published there's not really any obvious problems. They're seeing about an 8% positive rate on corona virus tests and 1.8% of those with confirmed infections have died. This is well below the rates seen in Iran, Italy, America and China suggesting they've been relatively thorough in catching infections, although less so than South Korea. In truth the Japanese healthcare system is probably the best in the world at providing population level care. Since long before Corona virus standards of hygiene have been very high. Masks and hand sanitizer bottles have been a common site for a long time, hand washing and gargling is heavily encouraged, and direct contact (hand shakes, hugs, back pats .etc.) is very restrained. Whats more for all the criticism it copped the Japanese government has been pretty decisive in responding to corona virus. It's shut down schools. It's shut down public spaces (museums, libraries .etc.). It's discouraged crowds. It's encourage working from home. It's restricted travel from hot spots. It's isolated those with infections. Also most age homes seem to have gone into lock down weeks ago.
joe_the_user 7y ago
I'd speculate that Japan isn't in the situation of the infection getting out of control. But none of posts should be construed as "Joe's complete model of Coronavirus dynamics." There are many things we don't know and can't predict. My main argument is every country needs much testing and much surveillance of the situation - IE, the Korean model is good, that is all.
MiguelVieira 7y ago
That, and Japan's first recorded infection was almost two months ago.
elorant 7y ago
Sanitisation habits. https://jakubmarian.com/a-study-reveals-how-many-europeans-wash-their-hands-with-soap/ https://jakubmarian.com/a-study-reveals-how-many-europeans-w...
- brigandish 7y ago
  I'd be surprised if 57% of Japanese men washed their hands properly, judging by what I see when I'm in a mens room in Japan. I'm inclined to go with the other comment nearby that says not to trust any figures coming out of Japan as a better explanation for the disparity.
stevenwoo 7y ago
Japan for whatever reason has a pretty low testing rate. It's impossible to know if that is a confounding factor or not at this point. Their infection count/death count and test count are remarkably similar to the USA. https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/3/12/21175034/coronavirus-covid-19-testing-usa https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/3/12/21175034/co...

DyslexicAtheist 7y ago

meh. I've been married to a Japanese for over 2 decades now, and lived in Tokyo for many years including when Fukushima happened. I wouldn't trust Japanese politicians with their reported numbers any more as I'd trust China or the US. There is one difference in Japan to Italy that might explain the lower infection rates: it's socially accepted to wear face masks (not only since covid but since the 90ies actually!)

magicsmoke 7y ago
Even if the numbers aren't reliable, reports of Japanese intensive care units being overrun aren't easy to hide, but Japanese hospitals don't seem to be under the same pressure as hospitals in Italy. Making mask wearing more acceptable might be a cultural adjustment humanity has to make as we become more urbanized and globalized if it'll help reduce the severity of disease transmission. Looks like Japan's stumbled onto a very useful societal adaptation.
- Aeolun 7y ago
  Japan has a lot of intensive care units. I guess it comes with having a generally older population.
  - tooltalk 7y ago
    but not compared to other developed countries (except England): [1] [2] Germany 3.7 24.6 France 3.3 9.3 England 2.7 3.3 USA 2.4 20 Canada 2.4 13.5 Japan 2.2 4 to 5 1. Ratio of physicians to patients (per 1,000 population) 2. Number of ICU beds (per 100,000 population)
    - Aeolun 7y ago
      Where did you get these numbers? I’m fairly certain I’ve seen Japan being ridiculously high in these numbers before. Edit: Never mind, that was total number of hospital beds. The number of ICU units is really small. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00134-015-4165-7 https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00134-015-4165-...
    - zjs 7y ago
      Do you have a source for those numbers? They differ significantly from https://stats.oecd.org/index.aspx?queryid=30183 https://stats.oecd.org/index.aspx?queryid=30183, but perhaps your source is more reliable. Edit: nevermind, I misunderstood the definition of "Curative care (acute care) beds in hospitals".
      - Al-Khwarizmi 7y ago
        Now that you understood it, can you explain what the difference is? It's not obvious to me either.
- tooltalk 7y ago
  Japan's problem is a bit different -- it's estimated that there are 30+K old folks dying unnoticed in solitude every year (Kodokushi) in Japan, even without the Wuhan virus. As cynical as it may sound, that may be why Japan doesn't even bother testing their citizens for the virus. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/30/world/asia/japan-lonely-deaths-the-end.html https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/30/world/asia/japan-lonely-d...
jeeeeb 7y ago
FWIW. My wife is Japanese and I lived in Japan through Fukushima as well. A lot of people seem to think that Japan must somehow have a higher infection rate but I haven't seen any evidence that this is true. For all the docileness of the mainstream media and the lame-duck politics it is a free and democratic society. The government couldn't hide a mass outbreak of corona virus anymore than it has been able to hide any other scandal. In fact almost certainly less given the levels of public interest. The Ministry of Health and Welfare publishes updated statistics daily (https://www.mhlw.go.jp/stf/seisakunitsuite/bunya/0000164708_00001.html https://www.mhlw.go.jp/stf/seisakunitsuite/bunya/0000164708_... -- in Japanese). looking at the current stats published there's not really any obvious problems. They're seeing about an 8% positive rate on corona virus tests and 1.8% of those with confirmed infections have died. This is well below the rates seen in Iran, Italy, America and China suggesting they've been relatively thorough in catching infections, although less so than South Korea. In truth the Japanese healthcare system is probably the best in the world at providing population level care. Since long before Corona virus standards of hygiene have been very high. Masks and hand sanitizer bottles have been a common site for a long time, hand washing and gargling is heavily encouraged, and direct contact (hand shakes, hugs, back pats .etc.) is very restrained. Whats more for all the criticism it copped the Japanese government has been pretty decisive in responding to corona virus. It's shut down schools. It's shut down public spaces (museums, libraries .etc.). It's discouraged crowds. It's encourage working from home. It's restricted travel from hot spots. It's isolated those with infections. Also most age homes seem to have gone into lock down weeks ago.

joe_the_user 7y ago

I'd speculate that Japan isn't in the situation of the infection getting out of control. But none of posts should be construed as "Joe's complete model of Coronavirus dynamics." There are many things we don't know and can't predict. My main argument is every country needs much testing and much surveillance of the situation - IE, the Korean model is good, that is all.

MiguelVieira 7y ago

That, and Japan's first recorded infection was almost two months ago.

elorant 7y ago

Sanitisation habits. https://jakubmarian.com/a-study-reveals-how-many-europeans-wash-their-hands-with-soap/ https://jakubmarian.com/a-study-reveals-how-many-europeans-w...

brigandish 7y ago
I'd be surprised if 57% of Japanese men washed their hands properly, judging by what I see when I'm in a mens room in Japan. I'm inclined to go with the other comment nearby that says not to trust any figures coming out of Japan as a better explanation for the disparity.

stevenwoo 7y ago

Japan for whatever reason has a pretty low testing rate. It's impossible to know if that is a confounding factor or not at this point. Their infection count/death count and test count are remarkably similar to the USA. https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/3/12/21175034/coronavirus-covid-19-testing-usa https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/3/12/21175034/co...