8 ms·

I had a chance to use one of the Meta headsets (Magic’s primary competitor) a few months before they went under. Don’t get me wrong, it was pretty cool to walk

by thrav 7y ago

I had a chance to use one of the Meta headsets (Magic’s primary competitor) a few months before they went under. Don’t get me wrong, it was pretty cool to walk around a 3D model wearing a headset, but the UX was nowhere close to practically useable and the picture quality was too faint to do anything serious. There’s undoubtedly some kind of value in the tech and IP, but I can’t see these things being used for much anytime soon. VR is light years ahead in terms of practical potential, and it’s not really getting off the ground either. I can’t see them getting anything remotely close to $10B.

seanmcdirmid 7y ago
The Oculus Quest has pretty much gone mainstream at this point, they even had supply shortages during Xmas that has yet to be recovered from (but mostly thanks to Corona).
- MegaButts 7y ago
  Let's say they sold 200,000 for the Xmas season - that would put Oculus Quest sales at around 600,000. https://gamedaily.biz/article/1337/report-oculus-quest-has-sold-400000-units-will-leapfrog-pc-headsets-superdata https://gamedaily.biz/article/1337/report-oculus-quest-has-s... And it seems VR sales (EDIT: shipments) are hovering at around 6,000,000 a year (this tends to include the crappy VR headsets that are sometimes given away for free with high end phones). https://www.androidcentral.com/nearly-half-all-vr-headsets-sold-2019-were-oculus-quest https://www.androidcentral.com/nearly-half-all-vr-headsets-s... This sounds like a lot...but it might not be. To put things in perspective, the Kinect sold around 20,000,000 units and was considered a failure by Microsoft which is why they abandoned it. I think the parallels between the Kinect and VR is worth noting, since most are really accessories to something else (or used for very niche purposes). VR definitely isn't mainstream yet, but it might get there in a few years. I think Half Life Alyx will be an interesting juncture and maybe even a make-or-break point for VR.
  - jrs95 7y ago
    Kinect was also bundled with the Xbox One at launch though, and it was mandatory
    - mikepurvis 7y ago
      A lot also got bought up by roboticists and hackers, though in the grand scheme of things, those users were probably still just a drop in the bucket.
  - seanmcdirmid 7y ago
    People expecting a half life gaming experience have been disappointed while the rest of us are too busy playing Beat Saber. It is going down just like mobile gaming did, in a different direction from hardcore gaming. AngryBirds wasn’t half-life either. I don’t really game on my Quest, but I do use it for a one hour workout everyday. My system is pretty beat up too, if it stopped working tomorrow I would get a replacement immediately.
    - Jasper_ 7y ago
      One of the hardest problems in VR has been locomotion -- how do you move from place to place in a way that's seamless and fluid? Even Half-Life Alyx struggles hard with this. You'll notice that whenever anything cool is going on, they have you put your hand on some pillar or controller to keep you from wandering off. Beat Saber is probably the best app for VR, because it solves that problem by not having any locomotion. The world locomotes to you. But that works well for an abstract rhythm game. I don't know how well that works for anything else.
      - seanmcdirmid 7y ago
        I basically use it for kickboxing, and the lack of locomotion in my apartment is a feature, not a bug. One reason I haven’t really gotten into thrill of the fight is because it involves actual moving, and I’ve found that isn’t really safe unless you have the space for it. Instead, I have to duck, lean, and weave enough with boxvr, and that is good enough for a lower body workout. I’ve never used the knobs and triggers on my VR controller for anything beyond game selection. In fact, I think Oculus would do better just to put out additional simplified controllers meant for fitness gaming. Nothing wrong with rhythm games if they can help you drop 40 pounds. The space problem is easy to solve with....space. A VR gym setup could easily solve it by putting you in a racket court with an appropriate guardian, and then let the VR system do the rest. Otherwise we will have to wait for Omni directional treadmill tech to get better.
gautamcgoel 7y ago
Part of the issue with VR/AR is that smartphones are already ubiquitous. Yes, I could wear your dorky looking headset and look like a complete fucken nerd, or I could just pull my phone out of my pocket like everyone else and get a lot of the same functionality.
- lreeves 7y ago
  I don't necessarily disagree with you but I'm old enough to remember a time when mobile phones were the dorkiest possible thing to pull out one's pocket (or bag in the case of the bag phones).
  - StaticRedux 7y ago
    Not to disregard your own experience, but I too am old enough to remember the start of mobile phones, and no one I ever knew thought they were dorky. Douchy maybe, but that was mostly bc the early adopters were wealthy businessmen and finance jerks (no offense to anyone if you are one). But not dorky.
- bayofpigs 7y ago
  I thought where you were going with this is that since smartphones are so ubiquitous any sort of AR system should utilize the phone for its primary processing. A headset is needed though for AR, it just has to be much smaller and lighter before they become mainstream.
modeless 7y ago
Meta was a joke. Magic Leap's technology has always been far better, and their primary competition is Microsoft and Facebook (and maybe Apple if rumors are true). Unfortunately for Magic Leap, it's just too early for AR headsets to be viable. The technology needs another decade or so to mature before it can be truly mainstream, probably. It can only survive in research labs with funding from some other source, not as a standalone business. Timing is everything for startups and Magic Leap was too early. I've been saying it for years: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17829798 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17829798
- derangedHorse 7y ago
  Using the Magic Leap One was an underwhelming experience. It was like using the first version of Microsoft's Hololens except with higher expectations. Truly disappointing.
- janoc 7y ago
  Their problem hasn't been timing. Microsoft's Hololens has been on the market even earlier, with worse specs - and was flying off the shelves in the industry, because they have targeted it well and provided reasonable support for it. ML problems was hype, hype and more HYPE. And then under-delivering, the device was in many ways actually worse than the first gen Hololens, despite costing more and coming to the market later. Oh and also the confused messages straight from the top - is ML a hardware company? A software platform? Services platform? Marketing to professionals? (then why those game demos and not some more pro oriented?) Marketing to retail? (then that price is a non-starter). Etc etc etc ...
  - modeless 7y ago
    Hololens is not "flying off the shelves". It would not be viable as a standalone business either. None of Magic Leap's many problems would have mattered if there was actually a market for the product to sell into. But the market needs a product that's better than any available technology allows today.
    - 7y ago
nikofeyn 7y ago
> VR is light years ahead in terms of practical potential i agree VR is light years away (it's been just around the corner for years), but i don't even understand its potential. what are the big applications? i just can't get around its usefulness for anything but maybe video games.
- fsloth 7y ago
  VR and AR are/will be huge in AEC. Digital design in general. For example, people using Quill can create animations incredibly rapidly.
  - zeta0x10 7y ago
    Excuse me, but can you explain what "AEC" is?
    - notoes 7y ago
      Architecture, Engineering and Construction.
    - deleted 7y ago
      [deleted]
- janoc 7y ago
  Then you aren't looking hard enough. Our company has more projects than we can take on, all for professional VR applications. Procedure training, safety training, risk assessment, ergonomics, medical applications ... There are ton of applications both in use and being developed. That you don't see it hyped on TV doesn't mean it is not there. Industrial applications are not advertised and marketed the same way as video games.
  - nikofeyn 7y ago
    > Then you aren't looking hard enough. > That you don't see it hyped on TV doesn't mean it is not there. no need to be condescending. and who watches t.v. or ads? your response doesn't elaborate on anything. i don't know what your company is. and just because you say you have lots of projects doesn't give me any information. can you elaborate? i humbly asked what the actual applications are, and you just listed a bunch of potential fields of use. because i have heard of various applications in those fields, but i don't get the overall usefulness that matches the hype. for example, in medical, how is VR useful? don't you need to be able to see what's actually going on and not be in VR land? if one is getting a live camera feed with overlays, is that really considered VR? i have seen applications of 3D viewing, but i don't see how that's better than using a monitor with improved input devices. in the case of practical immersive activities, i suppose i could have listed that as useful.
fsloth 7y ago
"it’s not really getting off the ground either" Actually it's off the ground and becoming commoditized in those fields where it makes sense - AEC, digital design, training. The reason they might not be familiar to you is that they are niches. There is no reason for everybody to use VR, but there are very good uses for some professionals. If phone is a hammer (everybody has use for it) then VR kit is an arc welding tool - extremely practical for some uses, but not for all. Or, pencil vs. oil paints. Oil paints are an essential product category, yet since the professionals who use them know them already and the market segment isn't that huge the non-artistically inclined consumer is likely not familiar with them due to lack of marketing dollars and hence media exposure.
- hef19898 7y ago
  Training is a serious thing for VR, as is development. I had chat last year with a guy running a VR event space / escpe room. Seemed to run rather well. What kind of stunned me was, when I asked whether or not he had thought about branching out into training, he said they re not interessted in that. I came from a stint at a company doing consulting and training for the defense sector mong other things. Considering the prices they asled, and got, from the government that is a big market. Adding some VR based training scenarios for the military, or emergency services, police, whatever, looks at frst glance interessting enough to at least dig deeper into. But no interesst. No idea why.
  - KineticLensman 7y ago
    > Adding some VR based training scenarios for the military, or emergency services, police, whatever, looks at frst glance interessting enough to at least dig deeper into. But no interesst. No idea why Military acquisition cycles can last for years, which slows down tech intro. Interaction with the wider training tech ecosystem is also a factor. For example, course authors need good VR environment editors to create usable scenarios, scoring tools, etc. They would have to be able to import their large libraries of existing vehicle and weapon models. Anecdotally, it can take an hour of scenario editing to get a minute of usable scenario One route in would be if an existing vendor of military sims (e.g. [0]) added a VR plug-in to an existing COTS sim already used widely by the military, and the military users then got a funding opportunity (e.g. a new platform with a fresh training budget) to enhance their existing kit. [0] https://bisimulations.com/products/vbs3 https://bisimulations.com/products/vbs3
jimmySixDOF 7y ago
Don't write off VR just yet. Qualcomm's Snapdragon XR2 chipset might raise the performance bar enough to matter and headsets start hitting the ground this summer (without a supply chain disruption).
moron4hire 7y ago
Meta was in no way ever a "primary competitor". Meta was a straight-up scam. If that's all the experience with headset-based AR that you've had, that's like trying to make comments about VR if you've only experienced Google Cardboard.
tootie 7y ago
Having tested both the Magic Leap and HoloLens, the biggest problem by a mile is field of view. Everything in this magical holographic world cuts off within a very narrow band of focus. The image is also not very sharp, bright or opaque. Trying to achieve both opaque images and a transparent screen is extremely difficult. As is the processing power to push enough pixels in battery-operated piece of eyeware. It's possible that microLED can bridge that gap, but it's just starting to creep into commercial production. Even with the current limited technology, I have yet to see any remotely plausible mainstream use cases for this kind of device.
- leetrout 7y ago
  I think retinal projectors are going to be the answer we're just not there yet. I'm big fan of the magic leap for gaming. It looks and feels really good. I'm a big fan of the HoloLens for work because it's easier to navigate and works more like expected for business applications. I have not gotten to try the HL2 yet but I am excited for the broader FOV.
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]
  - BostonEnginerd 7y ago
    I recently tried on a headset which had eye projection. It was extremely disorienting to wear. The Hololens was a lot easier to work with -- pretty magical!
netcan 7y ago
It's off the ground. Headset sales (mostly gaming) are somewhere in the low millions of units pa.
2OEH8eoCRo0 7y ago
Apple should just buy them with their $200B cash on hand.
- chipotle_coyote 7y ago
  Alternatively, Apple could not buy them and save the money. Less flippantly, while Apple seems to be heavily invested in AR, they're... well, already heavily invested in AR. There would need to be a compelling argument that buying Magic Leap would jump them farther ahead than they could get on their own.
- ogre_codes 7y ago
  Google and Microsoft are the kings of multi-billion dollar acquisitions (which generally end up a waste of money). Apple rarely drops more than a hundred million on an acquisition and when they do, it's for a foundational technology. Even PA Semi which is the foundation of their chip architecture was a sub-billion dollar acquisition. Notably, their two big $1B+ acquisitions were Beats and Next.
vertis 7y ago
Having tried to use the original Meta, and never quite managing to get my hands on the second version. It was unapproachable for developers as well. One of the really annoying habits of all of these companies in both VR and AR is they want developers to pay $$$ as early adopters and then also have an expectation around those same developers building all the experiences. The one exception I've seen to that rule was Valve. Valve sent me multiple HTC Vive headsets, even shipped them to Australia, so we could build against and demo their early VR, from nothing more than a meeting at their office. And we showed those headsets to thousands of people at our office and tradeshows (Real Estate). I can only hope that it repaid that generosity.
hogFeast 7y ago
The music has stopped. The $10bn price is nothing to do with the product, it is just a negotiating tactic meant to the hold up the price. If they are lucky, they will sell for $2bn, and whoever buys them will end up writing down to $100m or so. It is over.

by thrav 7y ago

seanmcdirmid 7y ago

The Oculus Quest has pretty much gone mainstream at this point, they even had supply shortages during Xmas that has yet to be recovered from (but mostly thanks to Corona).

MegaButts 7y ago
Let's say they sold 200,000 for the Xmas season - that would put Oculus Quest sales at around 600,000. https://gamedaily.biz/article/1337/report-oculus-quest-has-sold-400000-units-will-leapfrog-pc-headsets-superdata https://gamedaily.biz/article/1337/report-oculus-quest-has-s... And it seems VR sales (EDIT: shipments) are hovering at around 6,000,000 a year (this tends to include the crappy VR headsets that are sometimes given away for free with high end phones). https://www.androidcentral.com/nearly-half-all-vr-headsets-sold-2019-were-oculus-quest https://www.androidcentral.com/nearly-half-all-vr-headsets-s... This sounds like a lot...but it might not be. To put things in perspective, the Kinect sold around 20,000,000 units and was considered a failure by Microsoft which is why they abandoned it. I think the parallels between the Kinect and VR is worth noting, since most are really accessories to something else (or used for very niche purposes). VR definitely isn't mainstream yet, but it might get there in a few years. I think Half Life Alyx will be an interesting juncture and maybe even a make-or-break point for VR.
- jrs95 7y ago
  Kinect was also bundled with the Xbox One at launch though, and it was mandatory
  - mikepurvis 7y ago
    A lot also got bought up by roboticists and hackers, though in the grand scheme of things, those users were probably still just a drop in the bucket.
- seanmcdirmid 7y ago
  People expecting a half life gaming experience have been disappointed while the rest of us are too busy playing Beat Saber. It is going down just like mobile gaming did, in a different direction from hardcore gaming. AngryBirds wasn’t half-life either. I don’t really game on my Quest, but I do use it for a one hour workout everyday. My system is pretty beat up too, if it stopped working tomorrow I would get a replacement immediately.
  - Jasper_ 7y ago
    One of the hardest problems in VR has been locomotion -- how do you move from place to place in a way that's seamless and fluid? Even Half-Life Alyx struggles hard with this. You'll notice that whenever anything cool is going on, they have you put your hand on some pillar or controller to keep you from wandering off. Beat Saber is probably the best app for VR, because it solves that problem by not having any locomotion. The world locomotes to you. But that works well for an abstract rhythm game. I don't know how well that works for anything else.
    - seanmcdirmid 7y ago
      I basically use it for kickboxing, and the lack of locomotion in my apartment is a feature, not a bug. One reason I haven’t really gotten into thrill of the fight is because it involves actual moving, and I’ve found that isn’t really safe unless you have the space for it. Instead, I have to duck, lean, and weave enough with boxvr, and that is good enough for a lower body workout. I’ve never used the knobs and triggers on my VR controller for anything beyond game selection. In fact, I think Oculus would do better just to put out additional simplified controllers meant for fitness gaming. Nothing wrong with rhythm games if they can help you drop 40 pounds. The space problem is easy to solve with....space. A VR gym setup could easily solve it by putting you in a racket court with an appropriate guardian, and then let the VR system do the rest. Otherwise we will have to wait for Omni directional treadmill tech to get better.

gautamcgoel 7y ago

Part of the issue with VR/AR is that smartphones are already ubiquitous. Yes, I could wear your dorky looking headset and look like a complete fucken nerd, or I could just pull my phone out of my pocket like everyone else and get a lot of the same functionality.

lreeves 7y ago
I don't necessarily disagree with you but I'm old enough to remember a time when mobile phones were the dorkiest possible thing to pull out one's pocket (or bag in the case of the bag phones).
- StaticRedux 7y ago
  Not to disregard your own experience, but I too am old enough to remember the start of mobile phones, and no one I ever knew thought they were dorky. Douchy maybe, but that was mostly bc the early adopters were wealthy businessmen and finance jerks (no offense to anyone if you are one). But not dorky.
bayofpigs 7y ago
I thought where you were going with this is that since smartphones are so ubiquitous any sort of AR system should utilize the phone for its primary processing. A headset is needed though for AR, it just has to be much smaller and lighter before they become mainstream.

modeless 7y ago

Meta was a joke. Magic Leap's technology has always been far better, and their primary competition is Microsoft and Facebook (and maybe Apple if rumors are true). Unfortunately for Magic Leap, it's just too early for AR headsets to be viable. The technology needs another decade or so to mature before it can be truly mainstream, probably. It can only survive in research labs with funding from some other source, not as a standalone business. Timing is everything for startups and Magic Leap was too early. I've been saying it for years: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17829798 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17829798

derangedHorse 7y ago
Using the Magic Leap One was an underwhelming experience. It was like using the first version of Microsoft's Hololens except with higher expectations. Truly disappointing.
janoc 7y ago
Their problem hasn't been timing. Microsoft's Hololens has been on the market even earlier, with worse specs - and was flying off the shelves in the industry, because they have targeted it well and provided reasonable support for it. ML problems was hype, hype and more HYPE. And then under-delivering, the device was in many ways actually worse than the first gen Hololens, despite costing more and coming to the market later. Oh and also the confused messages straight from the top - is ML a hardware company? A software platform? Services platform? Marketing to professionals? (then why those game demos and not some more pro oriented?) Marketing to retail? (then that price is a non-starter). Etc etc etc ...
- modeless 7y ago
  Hololens is not "flying off the shelves". It would not be viable as a standalone business either. None of Magic Leap's many problems would have mattered if there was actually a market for the product to sell into. But the market needs a product that's better than any available technology allows today.
  - 7y ago

nikofeyn 7y ago

> VR is light years ahead in terms of practical potential i agree VR is light years away (it's been just around the corner for years), but i don't even understand its potential. what are the big applications? i just can't get around its usefulness for anything but maybe video games.

fsloth 7y ago
VR and AR are/will be huge in AEC. Digital design in general. For example, people using Quill can create animations incredibly rapidly.
- zeta0x10 7y ago
  Excuse me, but can you explain what "AEC" is?
  - notoes 7y ago
    Architecture, Engineering and Construction.
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]
janoc 7y ago
Then you aren't looking hard enough. Our company has more projects than we can take on, all for professional VR applications. Procedure training, safety training, risk assessment, ergonomics, medical applications ... There are ton of applications both in use and being developed. That you don't see it hyped on TV doesn't mean it is not there. Industrial applications are not advertised and marketed the same way as video games.
- nikofeyn 7y ago
  > Then you aren't looking hard enough. > That you don't see it hyped on TV doesn't mean it is not there. no need to be condescending. and who watches t.v. or ads? your response doesn't elaborate on anything. i don't know what your company is. and just because you say you have lots of projects doesn't give me any information. can you elaborate? i humbly asked what the actual applications are, and you just listed a bunch of potential fields of use. because i have heard of various applications in those fields, but i don't get the overall usefulness that matches the hype. for example, in medical, how is VR useful? don't you need to be able to see what's actually going on and not be in VR land? if one is getting a live camera feed with overlays, is that really considered VR? i have seen applications of 3D viewing, but i don't see how that's better than using a monitor with improved input devices. in the case of practical immersive activities, i suppose i could have listed that as useful.

fsloth 7y ago

"it’s not really getting off the ground either" Actually it's off the ground and becoming commoditized in those fields where it makes sense - AEC, digital design, training. The reason they might not be familiar to you is that they are niches. There is no reason for everybody to use VR, but there are very good uses for some professionals. If phone is a hammer (everybody has use for it) then VR kit is an arc welding tool - extremely practical for some uses, but not for all. Or, pencil vs. oil paints. Oil paints are an essential product category, yet since the professionals who use them know them already and the market segment isn't that huge the non-artistically inclined consumer is likely not familiar with them due to lack of marketing dollars and hence media exposure.

hef19898 7y ago
Training is a serious thing for VR, as is development. I had chat last year with a guy running a VR event space / escpe room. Seemed to run rather well. What kind of stunned me was, when I asked whether or not he had thought about branching out into training, he said they re not interessted in that. I came from a stint at a company doing consulting and training for the defense sector mong other things. Considering the prices they asled, and got, from the government that is a big market. Adding some VR based training scenarios for the military, or emergency services, police, whatever, looks at frst glance interessting enough to at least dig deeper into. But no interesst. No idea why.
- KineticLensman 7y ago
  > Adding some VR based training scenarios for the military, or emergency services, police, whatever, looks at frst glance interessting enough to at least dig deeper into. But no interesst. No idea why Military acquisition cycles can last for years, which slows down tech intro. Interaction with the wider training tech ecosystem is also a factor. For example, course authors need good VR environment editors to create usable scenarios, scoring tools, etc. They would have to be able to import their large libraries of existing vehicle and weapon models. Anecdotally, it can take an hour of scenario editing to get a minute of usable scenario One route in would be if an existing vendor of military sims (e.g. [0]) added a VR plug-in to an existing COTS sim already used widely by the military, and the military users then got a funding opportunity (e.g. a new platform with a fresh training budget) to enhance their existing kit. [0] https://bisimulations.com/products/vbs3 https://bisimulations.com/products/vbs3

jimmySixDOF 7y ago

Don't write off VR just yet. Qualcomm's Snapdragon XR2 chipset might raise the performance bar enough to matter and headsets start hitting the ground this summer (without a supply chain disruption).

moron4hire 7y ago

Meta was in no way ever a "primary competitor". Meta was a straight-up scam. If that's all the experience with headset-based AR that you've had, that's like trying to make comments about VR if you've only experienced Google Cardboard.

tootie 7y ago

Having tested both the Magic Leap and HoloLens, the biggest problem by a mile is field of view. Everything in this magical holographic world cuts off within a very narrow band of focus. The image is also not very sharp, bright or opaque. Trying to achieve both opaque images and a transparent screen is extremely difficult. As is the processing power to push enough pixels in battery-operated piece of eyeware. It's possible that microLED can bridge that gap, but it's just starting to creep into commercial production. Even with the current limited technology, I have yet to see any remotely plausible mainstream use cases for this kind of device.

leetrout 7y ago
I think retinal projectors are going to be the answer we're just not there yet. I'm big fan of the magic leap for gaming. It looks and feels really good. I'm a big fan of the HoloLens for work because it's easier to navigate and works more like expected for business applications. I have not gotten to try the HL2 yet but I am excited for the broader FOV.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
- BostonEnginerd 7y ago
  I recently tried on a headset which had eye projection. It was extremely disorienting to wear. The Hololens was a lot easier to work with -- pretty magical!

netcan 7y ago

It's off the ground. Headset sales (mostly gaming) are somewhere in the low millions of units pa.

2OEH8eoCRo0 7y ago

Apple should just buy them with their $200B cash on hand.

chipotle_coyote 7y ago
Alternatively, Apple could not buy them and save the money. Less flippantly, while Apple seems to be heavily invested in AR, they're... well, already heavily invested in AR. There would need to be a compelling argument that buying Magic Leap would jump them farther ahead than they could get on their own.
ogre_codes 7y ago
Google and Microsoft are the kings of multi-billion dollar acquisitions (which generally end up a waste of money). Apple rarely drops more than a hundred million on an acquisition and when they do, it's for a foundational technology. Even PA Semi which is the foundation of their chip architecture was a sub-billion dollar acquisition. Notably, their two big $1B+ acquisitions were Beats and Next.

vertis 7y ago

Having tried to use the original Meta, and never quite managing to get my hands on the second version. It was unapproachable for developers as well. One of the really annoying habits of all of these companies in both VR and AR is they want developers to pay $$$ as early adopters and then also have an expectation around those same developers building all the experiences. The one exception I've seen to that rule was Valve. Valve sent me multiple HTC Vive headsets, even shipped them to Australia, so we could build against and demo their early VR, from nothing more than a meeting at their office. And we showed those headsets to thousands of people at our office and tradeshows (Real Estate). I can only hope that it repaid that generosity.

hogFeast 7y ago

The music has stopped. The $10bn price is nothing to do with the product, it is just a negotiating tactic meant to the hold up the price. If they are lucky, they will sell for $2bn, and whoever buys them will end up writing down to $100m or so. It is over.