6 ms·

But China is making rather good progress so far so maybe something is able to stop the spread?

sulam 7y ago
China is now seeing a wave of secondary infections as they relax travel restrictions and as people enter the country from elsewhere. They have not stopped the spread, they simply slowed it down.
- CydeWeys 7y ago
  And that in itself is a huge accomplishment that will save many lives.
- Spooky23 7y ago
  That's the whole point. If you slow it down you can avoid the rapid spike in severe cases that overwhelm the system. It's like traffic -- once you surpass a certain volume, the system locks up and throughput drops.
- jessriedel 7y ago
  What is your source? I can't see anything visible in the Hopkins data, and all news stories seem to be about continued stability in China.
- wholien 7y ago
  source? China seems to have very low numbers of new infections right now
  - sulam 7y ago
    I work for a company with significant manufacturing in China, our source is people on the ground. So, Anecdata, but well-connected anecdata.
- ummonk 7y ago
  I think the point was to do a controlled restart while making sure the rate of secondary infections remains low enough that the impact of the coronavirus remains less than the flu.
filoleg 7y ago
Minor correction, China REPORTS making rather good progress. While I am neither a tinfoil hat wearer nor have anything against China, the fact that they were silencing a Wuhan doctor who was trying to alert people and authorities to the virus all the way back in December makes me skeptical of their reported status.
- CydeWeys 7y ago
  China isn't an information blackhole nor do they have perfect censorship. If the outbreak were still accelerating in an exponential fashion it'd be impossible to hide it from the world. They have successfully hit the inflection point on their logistics curve of viral spread (for now, anyway).
  - matwood 7y ago
    And China is reportedly sending equipment to Italy - not something they would do if the infections were still growing. Their actions seem to align with their message.
    - smohare 7y ago
      That’s a rather baseless claim.
    - filoleg 7y ago
      Genuine question, do you happen to have a source? Not that I don't believe you, I am just curious about the details, such as how many units, for how much (is it free?), etc.
      - goesup12 7y ago
        Here is some info about this. https://www.ansa.it/english/news/2020/03/10/2-mn-masks-1000-ventilators-coming-from-china-5_be78418e-ee39-4c2f-8012-5203372d3a46.html https://www.ansa.it/english/news/2020/03/10/2-mn-masks-1000-...
allovernow 7y ago
How do we know that the numbers are trustworthy? They weren't for the first two months and China has clamped down on any information leakage. Meanwhile as of last week their factories were still at around 50% capacity or less (check pollution maps online) and now I'm hearing rumors that they're forcing uighurs to work the factories that migrants are refusing to go back to. I'm not convinced yet. This would not be the first time a communist authoritarian regime lied about a bad situation - far from it, it's standard if you look at history in the Soviet Union for example. Authoritarian regimes cannot work without being respected and/or feared by the people, so they are incentivesed to lie to save face and simultaneously punish anyone who questions the lies. Especially considering that the longer this drags on, the more likely nations and corporations alike are to pull production from China permanently.
will_pseudonym 7y ago
Steps like welding doors shut [0] is not something I can see happening in the Western world. [0] https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/08/china-ill-not-only-coronavirus-communist-party-control https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/08/china-...
- samsolomon 7y ago
  I cannot see that happening in the U.S. without armed confrontations. Like guns or not, that's the 2nd Amendment at work.
  - Eric_WVGG 7y ago
    Is it? Unless you have some sort of evidence that “they didn’t try this because guns,” that’s less than speculation.
    - deleted 7y ago
      [deleted]
    - samsolomon 7y ago
      That is ridiculous. I was commenting on a hypothetical situation. People own guns for defense. There's reason to believe that if people are being trapped in a building against their will, they may use them.
- swader999 7y ago
  I imagine that was done on some doors not all, just to better funnel people to the remaining open exits where they had their manned check points.
- earthtourist 7y ago
  Rather scary how massive apartment buildings in China, where most people live, are able to be turned into prisons so quickly.
rm_-rf_ 7y ago
What I would encourage people to consider is whether this virus is at the level that we would all be happy to allow military enforced city-wide quarantines or travel restrictions... I understand that this is NOT the flu, but it seems like the best data we have puts the most pessimistic CFR at about 0.6% if you look at the South Korean data (who have done, by far, the best job testing en masse). I agree that slowing the spread of the virus to help our health care workers avoid being inundated with admissions to the ICU is worth while, but I'm extremely skeptical of embracing what China has done.
- ummonk 7y ago
  > but it seems like the best data we have puts the most pessimistic CFR at about 0.6% if you look at the South Korean data Check your stats. 0.77% of South Koreans who tested positive for the virus have died already, and more of them will die in the future. The CFR is likely to be above 1%.
  - rm_-rf_ 7y ago
    Right now the best information I've heard from several epidemiologists who study pandemics is that we are still seeing the results of severity bias, in that people with absolutely no symptoms will be far less likely to get tested. Also, South Korea is not seeing anything close to an exponential increase in cases. When those same experts see numbers coming out of Italy, they believe very strongly that the number of infected is far higher than being reported because testing is not as widespread.
- jacobolus 7y ago
  CFR changes dramatically depending on whether people can get hospital care.
- hcknwscommenter 7y ago
  We can embrace what China has done, or what S. Korea has done, or what Singapore has done, or what Italy has finally started doing. Any of those would have a dramatically positive effect. Right now, we (U.S.) haven't done any of that. That is the problem.
smohare 7y ago
Uh, that’s not clear at all given how they report cases.
hcknwscommenter 7y ago
Many people here are conflating "stop" with "make it non-exponential". "Stop" just ain't going to happen, and hasn't happened anywhere (Vietnam reports they have, but come on). China reports bending the curve away from exponential. That is the goal. It is a very important one.
- learc83 7y ago
  It's not just no longer exponential. The number of active cases is China is in decline. How long they can keep that going is debatable. But as of right now they are effectively stopping it.
  - hcknwscommenter 7y ago
    That is not stopping. Extrapolating your trend to infinity suggests stopping is plausible. Latest data I see is 134 new cases per day in China. Let's take those numbers at face value and believe them (no sarcasm intended). However, these are just known cases. China is not testing everyone. As managing the spread becomes more successful it becomes cost and manpower prohibitive to test enough people to catch them before they spread significantly.
    - learc83 7y ago
      China has moved the R0 below 1 through some combination of behavior changes, else the number of active cases wouldn't be going down. If they can keep it below 1, it will die out. It's possible there are many more unknown cases, but if unknown cases are increasing, confirmed cases should be too.

China is now seeing a wave of secondary infections as they relax travel restrictions and as people enter the country from elsewhere. They have not stopped the spread, they simply slowed it down.

CydeWeys 7y ago
And that in itself is a huge accomplishment that will save many lives.
Spooky23 7y ago
That's the whole point. If you slow it down you can avoid the rapid spike in severe cases that overwhelm the system. It's like traffic -- once you surpass a certain volume, the system locks up and throughput drops.
jessriedel 7y ago
What is your source? I can't see anything visible in the Hopkins data, and all news stories seem to be about continued stability in China.
wholien 7y ago
source? China seems to have very low numbers of new infections right now
- sulam 7y ago
  I work for a company with significant manufacturing in China, our source is people on the ground. So, Anecdata, but well-connected anecdata.
ummonk 7y ago
I think the point was to do a controlled restart while making sure the rate of secondary infections remains low enough that the impact of the coronavirus remains less than the flu.

filoleg 7y ago

Minor correction, China REPORTS making rather good progress. While I am neither a tinfoil hat wearer nor have anything against China, the fact that they were silencing a Wuhan doctor who was trying to alert people and authorities to the virus all the way back in December makes me skeptical of their reported status.

CydeWeys 7y ago
China isn't an information blackhole nor do they have perfect censorship. If the outbreak were still accelerating in an exponential fashion it'd be impossible to hide it from the world. They have successfully hit the inflection point on their logistics curve of viral spread (for now, anyway).
- matwood 7y ago
  And China is reportedly sending equipment to Italy - not something they would do if the infections were still growing. Their actions seem to align with their message.
  - smohare 7y ago
    That’s a rather baseless claim.
  - filoleg 7y ago
    Genuine question, do you happen to have a source? Not that I don't believe you, I am just curious about the details, such as how many units, for how much (is it free?), etc.
    - goesup12 7y ago
      Here is some info about this. https://www.ansa.it/english/news/2020/03/10/2-mn-masks-1000-ventilators-coming-from-china-5_be78418e-ee39-4c2f-8012-5203372d3a46.html https://www.ansa.it/english/news/2020/03/10/2-mn-masks-1000-...

allovernow 7y ago

How do we know that the numbers are trustworthy? They weren't for the first two months and China has clamped down on any information leakage. Meanwhile as of last week their factories were still at around 50% capacity or less (check pollution maps online) and now I'm hearing rumors that they're forcing uighurs to work the factories that migrants are refusing to go back to. I'm not convinced yet. This would not be the first time a communist authoritarian regime lied about a bad situation - far from it, it's standard if you look at history in the Soviet Union for example. Authoritarian regimes cannot work without being respected and/or feared by the people, so they are incentivesed to lie to save face and simultaneously punish anyone who questions the lies. Especially considering that the longer this drags on, the more likely nations and corporations alike are to pull production from China permanently.

will_pseudonym 7y ago

Steps like welding doors shut [0] is not something I can see happening in the Western world. [0] https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/08/china-ill-not-only-coronavirus-communist-party-control https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/08/china-...

samsolomon 7y ago
I cannot see that happening in the U.S. without armed confrontations. Like guns or not, that's the 2nd Amendment at work.
- Eric_WVGG 7y ago
  Is it? Unless you have some sort of evidence that “they didn’t try this because guns,” that’s less than speculation.
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]
  - samsolomon 7y ago
    That is ridiculous. I was commenting on a hypothetical situation. People own guns for defense. There's reason to believe that if people are being trapped in a building against their will, they may use them.
swader999 7y ago
I imagine that was done on some doors not all, just to better funnel people to the remaining open exits where they had their manned check points.
earthtourist 7y ago
Rather scary how massive apartment buildings in China, where most people live, are able to be turned into prisons so quickly.

rm_-rf_ 7y ago

What I would encourage people to consider is whether this virus is at the level that we would all be happy to allow military enforced city-wide quarantines or travel restrictions... I understand that this is NOT the flu, but it seems like the best data we have puts the most pessimistic CFR at about 0.6% if you look at the South Korean data (who have done, by far, the best job testing en masse). I agree that slowing the spread of the virus to help our health care workers avoid being inundated with admissions to the ICU is worth while, but I'm extremely skeptical of embracing what China has done.

ummonk 7y ago
> but it seems like the best data we have puts the most pessimistic CFR at about 0.6% if you look at the South Korean data Check your stats. 0.77% of South Koreans who tested positive for the virus have died already, and more of them will die in the future. The CFR is likely to be above 1%.
- rm_-rf_ 7y ago
  Right now the best information I've heard from several epidemiologists who study pandemics is that we are still seeing the results of severity bias, in that people with absolutely no symptoms will be far less likely to get tested. Also, South Korea is not seeing anything close to an exponential increase in cases. When those same experts see numbers coming out of Italy, they believe very strongly that the number of infected is far higher than being reported because testing is not as widespread.
jacobolus 7y ago
CFR changes dramatically depending on whether people can get hospital care.
hcknwscommenter 7y ago
We can embrace what China has done, or what S. Korea has done, or what Singapore has done, or what Italy has finally started doing. Any of those would have a dramatically positive effect. Right now, we (U.S.) haven't done any of that. That is the problem.

smohare 7y ago

Uh, that’s not clear at all given how they report cases.

hcknwscommenter 7y ago

Many people here are conflating "stop" with "make it non-exponential". "Stop" just ain't going to happen, and hasn't happened anywhere (Vietnam reports they have, but come on). China reports bending the curve away from exponential. That is the goal. It is a very important one.

learc83 7y ago
It's not just no longer exponential. The number of active cases is China is in decline. How long they can keep that going is debatable. But as of right now they are effectively stopping it.
- hcknwscommenter 7y ago
  That is not stopping. Extrapolating your trend to infinity suggests stopping is plausible. Latest data I see is 134 new cases per day in China. Let's take those numbers at face value and believe them (no sarcasm intended). However, these are just known cases. China is not testing everyone. As managing the spread becomes more successful it becomes cost and manpower prohibitive to test enough people to catch them before they spread significantly.
  - learc83 7y ago
    China has moved the R0 below 1 through some combination of behavior changes, else the number of active cases wouldn't be going down. If they can keep it below 1, it will die out. It's possible there are many more unknown cases, but if unknown cases are increasing, confirmed cases should be too.