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I was not very surprised that Italy turned out to be the (first?) major hit in Europe. Considering the strong business connections, it had to be either us or Ge

I was not very surprised that Italy turned out to be the (first?) major hit in Europe. Considering the strong business connections, it had to be either us or Germany. We are, as much of the world, importers from China, but many enterprises here are also, somewhat, strong exporters to China (I can see it from my dayjob as industrial automation SI), and if you factor in the small average size of Italian companies requiring many individual contacts (contrast with Germany where companies on average are bigger), you can imagine that there is a strong flow of people to and fro. Maybe the small size of companies requiring more people to establish commercial links + population being more uniformly settled across the country (no huge wildland or sparsely inhabited area left in Po Valley, except maybe some parts of Piedmont?) + a certain cultural inclination for useless quarreling hindering political action + inefficiencies in the administration + an unsolved conflict of power between central gov't and periphery possibly causing some waste of time in other quarreling + having to keep the vast group of small business owners somewhat quiet has resulted in a vast spreading of the virus. The interesting thing is that, if you replace China with Germany in the paragraph above (wrt. the possible German origin of the outbreak in Italy), the consideration about business links would still apply. Another interesting thing I have just noticed is that some journalists are now openly praising the Chinese handling of the crisis. Maybe this may sound strange to an American :D but there has been for some time a growing cross-partisan movement calling for stronger links to China. In fact this movement is somewhat present in European business community, so it is not so special to Italy, but nonetheless it is interesting to see these comments of open praise.

knee-cartilage 7y ago
Italy is Iran's largest trading partner out of all the countries in the EU iirc
C19is20 7y ago
Live in n. italy. Went shopping today to large supermarket. On way, few people in cars, many people out walking though, especially with kids. Supermarket nose-wipe section hit fairly hard, but that was it. Stockers were tending to other areas (either no nose wipes left, or not bothered?). Nobody was panicking buying. There was a pa with 'keep a meter away from everybody' announce, which made my kid laugh as we'd been watching you tube video on how far a sneeze can travel. Italians are touchy-feely poeople and this scare might make them take things a bit more seriously healthwise. Friday, i have a hospital appointment for a recent leg injury - will let you know :-) as three weeks ago i was in hospital for 6 days and i got the impression they were 'preparing' for a big outbreak - very few actual doctors around, nurses stepping up, orderlies assisting nurses with basics.
- pas 7y ago
  Are you concerned about the news out of Bergamo?
  - tigroferoce 7y ago
    I am. My wife is a MD, not in Bergamo, though, but the news are quite worrying :-(
    - fredoliveira 7y ago
      I am sorry about hijacking this, but I don't know what's happening in Bergamo. Particularly hard flare of the virus, or something else? Tried searching for news, didn't get far.
      - cataflam 7y ago
        You can read this report from a doctor there (translated in English on reddit): https://www.reddit.com/r/medicine/comments/ff8hns/testimony_of_a_surgeon_working_in_bergamo_in_the/ https://www.reddit.com/r/medicine/comments/ff8hns/testimony_... (the original links in Italian are at the bottom of the post if you prefer that)
        kryogen1c 7y ago
        And long comments full of vivid imagery lile this are EXACTLY why people are dissuaded from making social media posts, exemplified by the poster: "Sorry, but to me, as a doctor, it's not reassuring that the most serious are mainly elderly people with other pathologies." This could not be less helpful or more harmful. There is no useful information (that i got to, couldnt get all the way through). This is not an letter to the who or CDC trying to affect policy. This is a goddamn reddit post to scare people, vaguely, with the feelings of hospital staff. Im glad this doctor cares about comorbid patients, but this emotional non-rational prose is what drives mass hysteria and panics. We need data and recommendations.
bilekas 7y ago
I can appreciate this, I am one good half Italian, I have old family locked up in Modena. I love Italy, I consider it home, but I will argue against the opinion. And that is what it is. An opinion. Listen, forget China, forget their words, their actions are fucking insane. In Modena, the same thing is happening, we are all in glass houses. Italy has been praised for their action. Even from the WHO, myself included with family there, know that its hard. Nobody is pointing a finger are you. Grow the fuck up. >Another interesting thing I have just noticed is that some journalists are now openly praising the Chinese handling of the crisis. Che cazzo fa. Grow the fuck up. We are all stuck in this bullshit together. You're being a drama cunt. I would like to write more, but you already know it.
- ccmcarey 7y ago
  You've responded twice to this comment in insulting and rude ways.
  - bilekas 7y ago
    Yeah, because the original comment was completely shitty. - I don't think I'm an asshole, but I might come across as one, so hear me out and I'll hear you out. This context of the OP is not the same.
  - bilekas 7y ago
    Are you done yet flower? So much for discussion.
Angostura 7y ago
China has seen massive decline in the number of new cases in Hubei. It’s no surprise the response is being praised.
- jpxw 7y ago
  Can they be believed?
  - PKop 7y ago
    Give this a read. Supposedly verified by on the ground outside sources https://twitter.com/AbraarKaran/status/1236680328875474944 https://twitter.com/AbraarKaran/status/1236680328875474944
  - SpicyLemonZest 7y ago
    The CCP claims new cases are almost eliminated outside of Wuhan city limits; that'd be a hard thing to fake if it were really churning along at peak strength.
    - allovernow 7y ago
      They also have been using doctored numbers from day 1. And suppressing whistleblowers and scrubbing videos, as typical for an authoritarian socialist/communist regime. Nothing out of China can be trusted, unfortunately. If it's good news it's likely exaggerated, if it's bad news it's likely downplayed. This outbreak made that quite clear.
    - starfallg 7y ago
      This is actually the hardest to believe. The virus has run it course in Wuhan and it is likely dieing down as a significant number of people having developed immunity to it. But outside of Wuhan, there is likely a number of infected persons in the population still transmitting it and waiting to resurface into more serious cases after people get back to work.
      - FooBarWidget 7y ago
bilekas 7y ago
Another thing that bother me is you make no mention of tourists. Only mention business export/import (well done, everyone has that) There is a huge amount of tourism from Asia, but you just papered away from that, kinda gives a bit of nonsense to your toxic message.
bilekas 7y ago
> I was not very surprised that Italy turned out to be the (first?) major hit in Europe. Considering the strong business connection Just be honest and say that it did happen from tourism. It's ok to say that moron. You so full of shit it's unreal. If what you said was true, America would be dead my by now. Hahah I'll pull myself. That is more truth than your words.
- procinct 7y ago
  This sort of comment really isn’t appropriate for HN.
  - bilekas 7y ago
    I'll edit them to remove certain language, but I still think the OP of the comment was baiting. And clearly you all lap it up. Good to know/
- ccmcarey 7y ago
  Comments like yours have no place on HN. I don't know how, but someone should ping dang / other admin to address this.
  - bilekas 7y ago
    No no no, I genuinely ask.. Why is it okay for the popular message to get the favour, yeah Italy is extending it, but shitty information is supposed to be the antithesis of HN.
  - bilekas 7y ago
    It's okay to say tourism spread corona.
    - bilekas 7y ago
      Jesus even this is refused.. Whut ?
  - bilekas 7y ago
bilekas 7y ago
I genuinely wanna argue this out with you privately. Email me or STFU.
soneil 7y ago
> Another interesting thing I have just noticed is that some journalists are now openly praising the Chinese handling of the crisis. I think this is a very interesting effect. China has a fantastic ability to mobilize as one when needed. The vast majority of the time, the insane amount of control this requires, is something we're simply not comfortable with giving to governments. But sometimes, just sometimes, the results are worth it. The closest equivalence I could think of that'd be familiar to American ears, would be the WW2 war effort. It's not how most of us would want a country run day-to-day, but the ability to do so when needed is incredibly powerful. Pumping a hospital out in a week or a battleship out in a month aren't dissimilar in national focus. And they're both achievements. What makes China feel alien to us is that this is their default stance. (And that said, there's plenty to be critical of in the earlier days of China's response. But in the interest of sharing data and research, we're catching more flies with honey.)
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
- Polylactic_acid 7y ago
  >What makes China feel alien to us is that this is their default stance. Isn't having a massive military Americas default stance as well?
  - kelnos 7y ago
    Parent's comment had nothing to do with military, but with an authoritarian executive's power to unilaterally get things done quickly, if they so desire. The US was sometimes able to mobilize quickly in response to extraordinary circumstances (WWII production being an example), but that isn't really our default state, and requires consensus-building rather than orders from on high. But sadly our ability to do so even in extraordinary circumstances has atrophied.
    - dwohnitmok 7y ago
      It's perhaps worth noting that even in the U.S., these wartime mobilizations have often been carried out by comparatively authoritarian governments (especially in comparison to peacetime U.S. government), e.g. the suspension of habeas corpus and mass arrests during the U.S. Civil War, German internment and the Espionage and Sedition Acts of World War 1, and mass Japanese internment camps and the Office of Censorship during World War 2.
tobiasreissner 7y ago
> I was not very surprised that Italy turned out to be the (first?) major hit in Europe. It’s not surprising. Out of the EU members, Italy and Greece are the most disorganized. Germany is the most organized, culturally and economically, and probably best prepared for this.
jdietrich 7y ago
>We are, as much of the world, importers from China, but many enterprises here are also, somewhat, strong exporters to China Italy also has a surprisingly large number of Chinese migrant workers, mainly in the fashion and leather goods sector. Skilled Chinese workers in Milan and Prato provide the kudos of the "Made in Italy" label at considerably lower cost. https://www.economist.com/special-report/2018/05/17/long-term-chinese-immigrants-in-italy https://www.economist.com/special-report/2018/05/17/long-ter...
- perrywky 7y ago
  Many of them are from Zhejiang province of China, and since the outbreak in Italy, Zhejiang now have 7 "imported cases" from Italy. http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-03/03/c_138838575.htm http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-03/03/c_138838575.htm
- starfallg 7y ago
  You hit the nail on the head. In addition to the fashion industry, Italy is a favourite destination for Chinese tourists for sightseeing as well as buying luxury and said fashion goods.
hatenberg 7y ago
There is good evidence the initial cases in Italy were tourism related. As for praising the Chinese response - I think the reasons will be very clear soon to most people - without a very decisive and heavy handed response the health care systems in most developed countries will face very severe consequences or collapse. We are at the denial stage still with people finding excuses why Italy is different, etc, etc The US is 8 days behind Italy is 8 days behind Korea.
- dx034 7y ago
  Yes, not only are Chinese and Italian cases related, most southern German cases are also related to those in Italy.
deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
cjbprime 7y ago
Italy also has the second-oldest population in the world, after Japan. And a below average number of hospital beds available per capita.
- ncallaway 7y ago
  I'm not sure what country you're from. If you're from the States (where I see a lot of denialism): Italy has 3.18 beds per 1,000 people. The United States has 2.77 beds per 1,000 people. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_OECD_countries_by_hospital_beds https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_OECD_countries_by_hosp...
  - cjbprime 7y ago
    Yes. Both Italy and the US are below average. South Korea and Japan, currently taking extremely drastic measures like mass-closing schools, have around 5x as many beds as either. I'm in the US, but if you think that makes me think the US is prepared, you have it backwards. I'd guess that if we're not in worse shape than Italy in two weeks, we'll be very lucky.
    - pmayrgundter 7y ago
      Agreed. For the country as a whole, I have it at 20 days until we run out of beds. Like Italy, seems reasonable to expect some areas will hit it sooner. Here's my growth equation: BedsNeeded = CurrentCases * DailyGrowthRate ^ DaysOfGrowth * SevereAndCriticalRate 708 = CurrentCases, the number of COVID-19 cases in the US as of March 9, 2020. [1] 1.6 = DailyGrowthRate, Number of today's cases / Number of yesterday's cases. [2] 20 = DaysOfGrowth, how many days to run the simulation. 0.1 = SevereAndCriticalRate, the percentage of cases requiring a hospital bed. [3] 855,919 = BedsNeeded This is based on the above-quoted 2.77 beds per 1000 people, and a US population of 327.2M people, for 906,344 beds available. [1] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ [2] Ibid, rough average of last week's growth rate [3] Rough guess from above comments and other reading. Working sheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15CRanm0MHyappT_3J1qclzPzSCoEw2ucVlzvT3euB2w/edit?usp=sharing https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15CRanm0MHyappT_3J1qc...
rawoke083600 7y ago
Who is "us" ? Hackernews are being read from around the world. I'm for example from South Africa.
- stbn 7y ago
  Us Italians

knee-cartilage 7y ago

Italy is Iran's largest trading partner out of all the countries in the EU iirc

C19is20 7y ago

Live in n. italy. Went shopping today to large supermarket. On way, few people in cars, many people out walking though, especially with kids. Supermarket nose-wipe section hit fairly hard, but that was it. Stockers were tending to other areas (either no nose wipes left, or not bothered?). Nobody was panicking buying. There was a pa with 'keep a meter away from everybody' announce, which made my kid laugh as we'd been watching you tube video on how far a sneeze can travel. Italians are touchy-feely poeople and this scare might make them take things a bit more seriously healthwise. Friday, i have a hospital appointment for a recent leg injury - will let you know :-) as three weeks ago i was in hospital for 6 days and i got the impression they were 'preparing' for a big outbreak - very few actual doctors around, nurses stepping up, orderlies assisting nurses with basics.

pas 7y ago
Are you concerned about the news out of Bergamo?
- tigroferoce 7y ago
  I am. My wife is a MD, not in Bergamo, though, but the news are quite worrying :-(
  - fredoliveira 7y ago
    I am sorry about hijacking this, but I don't know what's happening in Bergamo. Particularly hard flare of the virus, or something else? Tried searching for news, didn't get far.
    - cataflam 7y ago
      You can read this report from a doctor there (translated in English on reddit): https://www.reddit.com/r/medicine/comments/ff8hns/testimony_of_a_surgeon_working_in_bergamo_in_the/ https://www.reddit.com/r/medicine/comments/ff8hns/testimony_... (the original links in Italian are at the bottom of the post if you prefer that)
      - kryogen1c 7y ago
        And long comments full of vivid imagery lile this are EXACTLY why people are dissuaded from making social media posts, exemplified by the poster: "Sorry, but to me, as a doctor, it's not reassuring that the most serious are mainly elderly people with other pathologies." This could not be less helpful or more harmful. There is no useful information (that i got to, couldnt get all the way through). This is not an letter to the who or CDC trying to affect policy. This is a goddamn reddit post to scare people, vaguely, with the feelings of hospital staff. Im glad this doctor cares about comorbid patients, but this emotional non-rational prose is what drives mass hysteria and panics. We need data and recommendations.

bilekas 7y ago

I can appreciate this, I am one good half Italian, I have old family locked up in Modena. I love Italy, I consider it home, but I will argue against the opinion. And that is what it is. An opinion. Listen, forget China, forget their words, their actions are fucking insane. In Modena, the same thing is happening, we are all in glass houses. Italy has been praised for their action. Even from the WHO, myself included with family there, know that its hard. Nobody is pointing a finger are you. Grow the fuck up. >Another interesting thing I have just noticed is that some journalists are now openly praising the Chinese handling of the crisis. Che cazzo fa. Grow the fuck up. We are all stuck in this bullshit together. You're being a drama cunt. I would like to write more, but you already know it.

ccmcarey 7y ago
You've responded twice to this comment in insulting and rude ways.
- bilekas 7y ago
  Yeah, because the original comment was completely shitty. - I don't think I'm an asshole, but I might come across as one, so hear me out and I'll hear you out. This context of the OP is not the same.
- bilekas 7y ago
  Are you done yet flower? So much for discussion.

Angostura 7y ago

China has seen massive decline in the number of new cases in Hubei. It’s no surprise the response is being praised.

jpxw 7y ago
Can they be believed?
- PKop 7y ago
  Give this a read. Supposedly verified by on the ground outside sources https://twitter.com/AbraarKaran/status/1236680328875474944 https://twitter.com/AbraarKaran/status/1236680328875474944
- SpicyLemonZest 7y ago
  The CCP claims new cases are almost eliminated outside of Wuhan city limits; that'd be a hard thing to fake if it were really churning along at peak strength.
  - allovernow 7y ago
    They also have been using doctored numbers from day 1. And suppressing whistleblowers and scrubbing videos, as typical for an authoritarian socialist/communist regime. Nothing out of China can be trusted, unfortunately. If it's good news it's likely exaggerated, if it's bad news it's likely downplayed. This outbreak made that quite clear.
  - starfallg 7y ago
    This is actually the hardest to believe. The virus has run it course in Wuhan and it is likely dieing down as a significant number of people having developed immunity to it. But outside of Wuhan, there is likely a number of infected persons in the population still transmitting it and waiting to resurface into more serious cases after people get back to work.
    - FooBarWidget 7y ago

bilekas 7y ago

Another thing that bother me is you make no mention of tourists. Only mention business export/import (well done, everyone has that) There is a huge amount of tourism from Asia, but you just papered away from that, kinda gives a bit of nonsense to your toxic message.

bilekas 7y ago

> I was not very surprised that Italy turned out to be the (first?) major hit in Europe. Considering the strong business connection Just be honest and say that it did happen from tourism. It's ok to say that moron. You so full of shit it's unreal. If what you said was true, America would be dead my by now. Hahah I'll pull myself. That is more truth than your words.

procinct 7y ago
This sort of comment really isn’t appropriate for HN.
- bilekas 7y ago
  I'll edit them to remove certain language, but I still think the OP of the comment was baiting. And clearly you all lap it up. Good to know/
ccmcarey 7y ago
Comments like yours have no place on HN. I don't know how, but someone should ping dang / other admin to address this.
- bilekas 7y ago
  No no no, I genuinely ask.. Why is it okay for the popular message to get the favour, yeah Italy is extending it, but shitty information is supposed to be the antithesis of HN.
- bilekas 7y ago
  It's okay to say tourism spread corona.
  - bilekas 7y ago
    Jesus even this is refused.. Whut ?
- bilekas 7y ago

bilekas 7y ago

I genuinely wanna argue this out with you privately. Email me or STFU.

soneil 7y ago

> Another interesting thing I have just noticed is that some journalists are now openly praising the Chinese handling of the crisis. I think this is a very interesting effect. China has a fantastic ability to mobilize as one when needed. The vast majority of the time, the insane amount of control this requires, is something we're simply not comfortable with giving to governments. But sometimes, just sometimes, the results are worth it. The closest equivalence I could think of that'd be familiar to American ears, would be the WW2 war effort. It's not how most of us would want a country run day-to-day, but the ability to do so when needed is incredibly powerful. Pumping a hospital out in a week or a battleship out in a month aren't dissimilar in national focus. And they're both achievements. What makes China feel alien to us is that this is their default stance. (And that said, there's plenty to be critical of in the earlier days of China's response. But in the interest of sharing data and research, we're catching more flies with honey.)

deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
Polylactic_acid 7y ago
>What makes China feel alien to us is that this is their default stance. Isn't having a massive military Americas default stance as well?
- kelnos 7y ago
  Parent's comment had nothing to do with military, but with an authoritarian executive's power to unilaterally get things done quickly, if they so desire. The US was sometimes able to mobilize quickly in response to extraordinary circumstances (WWII production being an example), but that isn't really our default state, and requires consensus-building rather than orders from on high. But sadly our ability to do so even in extraordinary circumstances has atrophied.
  - dwohnitmok 7y ago
    It's perhaps worth noting that even in the U.S., these wartime mobilizations have often been carried out by comparatively authoritarian governments (especially in comparison to peacetime U.S. government), e.g. the suspension of habeas corpus and mass arrests during the U.S. Civil War, German internment and the Espionage and Sedition Acts of World War 1, and mass Japanese internment camps and the Office of Censorship during World War 2.

tobiasreissner 7y ago

> I was not very surprised that Italy turned out to be the (first?) major hit in Europe. It’s not surprising. Out of the EU members, Italy and Greece are the most disorganized. Germany is the most organized, culturally and economically, and probably best prepared for this.

jdietrich 7y ago

>We are, as much of the world, importers from China, but many enterprises here are also, somewhat, strong exporters to China Italy also has a surprisingly large number of Chinese migrant workers, mainly in the fashion and leather goods sector. Skilled Chinese workers in Milan and Prato provide the kudos of the "Made in Italy" label at considerably lower cost. https://www.economist.com/special-report/2018/05/17/long-term-chinese-immigrants-in-italy https://www.economist.com/special-report/2018/05/17/long-ter...

perrywky 7y ago
Many of them are from Zhejiang province of China, and since the outbreak in Italy, Zhejiang now have 7 "imported cases" from Italy. http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-03/03/c_138838575.htm http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-03/03/c_138838575.htm
starfallg 7y ago
You hit the nail on the head. In addition to the fashion industry, Italy is a favourite destination for Chinese tourists for sightseeing as well as buying luxury and said fashion goods.

hatenberg 7y ago

There is good evidence the initial cases in Italy were tourism related. As for praising the Chinese response - I think the reasons will be very clear soon to most people - without a very decisive and heavy handed response the health care systems in most developed countries will face very severe consequences or collapse. We are at the denial stage still with people finding excuses why Italy is different, etc, etc The US is 8 days behind Italy is 8 days behind Korea.

dx034 7y ago
Yes, not only are Chinese and Italian cases related, most southern German cases are also related to those in Italy.

deleted 7y ago

[deleted]

cjbprime 7y ago

Italy also has the second-oldest population in the world, after Japan. And a below average number of hospital beds available per capita.

ncallaway 7y ago
I'm not sure what country you're from. If you're from the States (where I see a lot of denialism): Italy has 3.18 beds per 1,000 people. The United States has 2.77 beds per 1,000 people. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_OECD_countries_by_hospital_beds https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_OECD_countries_by_hosp...
- cjbprime 7y ago
  Yes. Both Italy and the US are below average. South Korea and Japan, currently taking extremely drastic measures like mass-closing schools, have around 5x as many beds as either. I'm in the US, but if you think that makes me think the US is prepared, you have it backwards. I'd guess that if we're not in worse shape than Italy in two weeks, we'll be very lucky.
  - pmayrgundter 7y ago
    Agreed. For the country as a whole, I have it at 20 days until we run out of beds. Like Italy, seems reasonable to expect some areas will hit it sooner. Here's my growth equation: BedsNeeded = CurrentCases * DailyGrowthRate ^ DaysOfGrowth * SevereAndCriticalRate 708 = CurrentCases, the number of COVID-19 cases in the US as of March 9, 2020. [1] 1.6 = DailyGrowthRate, Number of today's cases / Number of yesterday's cases. [2] 20 = DaysOfGrowth, how many days to run the simulation. 0.1 = SevereAndCriticalRate, the percentage of cases requiring a hospital bed. [3] 855,919 = BedsNeeded This is based on the above-quoted 2.77 beds per 1000 people, and a US population of 327.2M people, for 906,344 beds available. [1] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ [2] Ibid, rough average of last week's growth rate [3] Rough guess from above comments and other reading. Working sheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15CRanm0MHyappT_3J1qclzPzSCoEw2ucVlzvT3euB2w/edit?usp=sharing https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15CRanm0MHyappT_3J1qc...

rawoke083600 7y ago

Who is "us" ? Hackernews are being read from around the world. I'm for example from South Africa.

stbn 7y ago
Us Italians