7 ms·

Italy is a country of 60M+ people and the 8th largest economy in the world, with a very high national debt and that significantly relies on tourism for its econ

by fosk 7y ago

Italy is a country of 60M+ people and the 8th largest economy in the world, with a very high national debt and that significantly relies on tourism for its economy. Above and beyond the Coronavirus, this can terribly affect the long-term solvency of the country.

ThisIsTheWay 7y ago
Fully agreed, this is a big concern of mine as well. We've got a 2 week trip planned to Italy in May, but that is likely to get cancelled this week based on the growing concerns throughout the country. I am fully expecting to reschedule our same trip later in the year, but until the virus starts to slow down significantly, I'm not comfortable rebooking.
- wpasc 7y ago
  have a trip scheduled first 2 weeks in june, also unsure of what to do
  - ThisIsTheWay 7y ago
    We had a cutoff-date approaching for refundability of one of our bookings, otherwise we would have waited to see what happens over the next few weeks. If you can afford to wait, I'd ride it out a bit longer.
  - pmontra 7y ago
    My gut feeling from Italy: May, difficult. June, maybe. But expect that this disease expands to almost everywhere so what's going to be the status of your country by then, regardless where you are from? I'm not expecting to be able to travel much this summer, not because I'm from Italy but because every country is going to have its own share of problems.
    - dsiegel2275 7y ago
      Thoughts on the UK? I'm supposed to go on a vacation to England for a week starting April 1st
      - gambiting 7y ago
        You might as well roll some dice at this point - going to be as reliable for advice.
      - wolco 7y ago
        The plane flight/airport will be the biggest risk.
      - pjc50 7y ago
        I live in the UK and have no idea. It's quite likely that we delay quarantine until too late, but when that actually is or how bad is anyone's guess.
      - cycrutchfield 7y ago
        Even if the flight isn't canceled, that's going to be a pretty unpleasant vacation. Make contingency plans and expect that there will be a change fee waiver for you to rebook your trip to later.
      - TeMPOraL 7y ago
        I'm supposed to start a short contract there end of March, and I'm considering cancelling. UK seems to be <del>4-6 weeks</del>(EDIT: 2-3 weeks) behind Italy now, and I don't want to get stuck in a different country than the rest of my family, without even an insurance number (apparently, it takes more than a month to acquire one; end of April, I'm betting the country will be in total lockdown).
        tome 7y ago
        The UK is only two weeks behind Italy. Look at the numbers. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_outbreak_in_Italy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_outbreak_in_I... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_outbreak_in_the_United_Kingdom https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_outbreak_in_t...
    - toyg 7y ago
      > May, difficult I have an interest in this (I booked a business trip to Italy end of May / beginning of June), but my gut feeling is that the country will not stand for two months of complete lockdown. Two weeks, sure; a month, probably; two months is a very long time to keep so many things on hold. Italy is not China. I expect some measures will stay in place (particularly about large gatherings), but not all.
      - cull 7y ago
        I have been thinking about this for a week while monitoring travel alerts. I have two business trips scheduled—-one in May and the other in June. My employer just canceled my May trip today and I feel that the same is going to happen for June. While I can always reschedule, I fear that my colleagues and friends in Italy, whose families depend on visitors during the months of May and June, will not recover from this.
  - asjw 7y ago
    Living in Milan. Given the nature of this outbreak the real issue is not 'when' it is gonna happen anywhere else, but 'when'. Italy has been hit first and I must say the reaction of the regions has been uneven, but in the future if the virus doesn't stop with the warmer weather, maybe your country is gonna keep people from flying abroad, so I think it's very difficult to make proper plans right now and, as far as tourism is concerned, 2020 is gone.
- awslattery 7y ago
  Mid-April. But booked well before it got crazy. Looks like I'll be SoL unless the US places full travel restrictions.
- TeMPOraL 7y ago
  Had one end of March. Booked well before COVID-19 was a thing, paid for before it was in Europe. Already cancelled, now we're fighting with the travel agency to waive the cancellation fee.
paganel 7y ago
I hope (and suspect) that the ECB (and Europe as a whole) will financially stand behind Italy, no questions asked (I'm a fellow European).
- tanilama 7y ago
  I am not European, but I hope EU can act jointly to handle this. Otherwise, EU's future is jeopardy.
- PeterStuer 7y ago
  You seem to forget that the ECB is there for the banks, not for the people or their countries.
  - ohazi 7y ago
    The financial stakeholders in these banks and in Europe as a whole have a powerful motivation to contain this pandemic.
  - kspacewalk2 7y ago
    You seem to forget that [ insert deeply ideological sloganeering / extremely arguable value judgment ].
    - andrei_says_ 7y ago
      I wish everyone was addressing trolling face on, like you. Thank you.
  - nutjob2 7y ago
    Yes, the ECB is there to support and regulate the banks, that is its job. There is a very good reason for this: if you don't have stable and healthy banks you don't have a functioning economy. People of your ideological ilk see this as some sort of negative but it's absolutely vital. You may think of banks as evil and having a lot of money, but that money is not theirs but "the people's."
oarabbus_ 7y ago
The ripple effect of potential Italian bank defaults will ripple throughout the EU and the USA as well.
- tiborsaas 7y ago
  The ripple effect is already in place. Flybe airline just defaulted, I've read a post on Linkedin that a small catering firm is suffering in Hungary due to cancelled events and other companies in the food chain will probably suffer a lot more especially if they operate with a razor thin margin. After the human factor, the virus will hit the economy hard. It's probably only a matter of time till it triggers a serious recession. I'd really like to be wrong here.
  - kjakm 7y ago
    > Flybe airline just defaulted Although they tried to blame this on Coronavirus that's a small part of it most likely. They nearly folded a few months ago and the government promised them massive tax subsidies which it appears they never followed through on. Regardless my point is that Flybe collapsing his little to nothing to do with Coronavirus. It just accelerated things ever so slightly.
    - toyg 7y ago
      I agree - Flybe is the British Alitalia, they would have cracked at the first crisis anyway. Still, I'm happy to bet that, by June, they will not be the only airline to have folded.
      - cycrutchfield 7y ago
        Most national flagship carriers will get bailed out, you can bet on that.
        onlyrealcuzzo 7y ago
        Is this something British people support? Or just something you see as inevitable?
thefz 7y ago
I would not worry, past governments have already terribly affected the long-term solvency of the country.
fspeech 7y ago
National debt is merely a number's game. ECB can simply eat it. They are suffering from deflation after all and they could use some inflationary move. Debt accounting for the national governments is there to enforce financial discipline in normal times. Right now it is much more akin to war time. Evenly distributing the pain through bond and currency holders will be seen as just compared to the lives that can be saved through decisive actions.
- handedness 7y ago
  National debt may be a numbers game, but it's not merely that. There's nothing simple about any ECB decision on monetary policy, and the composition of the EU when combined with the nature of the Euro is such that pain almost by definition can't be evenly distributed.
  - fspeech 7y ago
    ECB already implicitly backs every country's bonds. They just need to stick to their stance. After the crisis is over there will be time to work out the cost sharing among European countries.
    - handedness 7y ago
      That is a completely hollow guarantee, though. The ECB's balance sheets are bad enough as it is, and one country's "cost sharing" is another country's forced-austerity to bail out another country's bad loans. The Eurosystem has serious issues that are about to get even worse. The ECB is practically insolvent by their own standards, and would be technically insolvent by American standards.
agumonkey 7y ago
I guess this will be the final straw. The whole planet has to assemble and invent a plan to smooth out the bubble.
bilekas 7y ago
> relies on tourism for its economy Yup, but I got destroyed for that. We will be fine. Just keep your hands clean ffs.
ilugaslifk 7y ago
It seems a little silly to talk about how some particular instance of desperate measures will effect some particular polity, without considering the context of that these measures and the devastation that's tied to them will be present absolutely everywhere within 1-2 months.
simonebrunozzi 7y ago
You would be right; Italy's private savings are in the ballpark of $10T+, which means a "patrimoniale" (tax on wealth) would be the last resort to avoid bankrupcy.

by fosk 7y ago

ThisIsTheWay 7y ago

Fully agreed, this is a big concern of mine as well. We've got a 2 week trip planned to Italy in May, but that is likely to get cancelled this week based on the growing concerns throughout the country. I am fully expecting to reschedule our same trip later in the year, but until the virus starts to slow down significantly, I'm not comfortable rebooking.

wpasc 7y ago
have a trip scheduled first 2 weeks in june, also unsure of what to do
- ThisIsTheWay 7y ago
  We had a cutoff-date approaching for refundability of one of our bookings, otherwise we would have waited to see what happens over the next few weeks. If you can afford to wait, I'd ride it out a bit longer.
- pmontra 7y ago
  My gut feeling from Italy: May, difficult. June, maybe. But expect that this disease expands to almost everywhere so what's going to be the status of your country by then, regardless where you are from? I'm not expecting to be able to travel much this summer, not because I'm from Italy but because every country is going to have its own share of problems.
  - dsiegel2275 7y ago
    Thoughts on the UK? I'm supposed to go on a vacation to England for a week starting April 1st
    - gambiting 7y ago
      You might as well roll some dice at this point - going to be as reliable for advice.
    - wolco 7y ago
      The plane flight/airport will be the biggest risk.
    - pjc50 7y ago
      I live in the UK and have no idea. It's quite likely that we delay quarantine until too late, but when that actually is or how bad is anyone's guess.
    - cycrutchfield 7y ago
      Even if the flight isn't canceled, that's going to be a pretty unpleasant vacation. Make contingency plans and expect that there will be a change fee waiver for you to rebook your trip to later.
    - TeMPOraL 7y ago
      I'm supposed to start a short contract there end of March, and I'm considering cancelling. UK seems to be <del>4-6 weeks</del>(EDIT: 2-3 weeks) behind Italy now, and I don't want to get stuck in a different country than the rest of my family, without even an insurance number (apparently, it takes more than a month to acquire one; end of April, I'm betting the country will be in total lockdown).
      - tome 7y ago
        The UK is only two weeks behind Italy. Look at the numbers. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_outbreak_in_Italy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_outbreak_in_I... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_outbreak_in_the_United_Kingdom https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_outbreak_in_t...
  - toyg 7y ago
    > May, difficult I have an interest in this (I booked a business trip to Italy end of May / beginning of June), but my gut feeling is that the country will not stand for two months of complete lockdown. Two weeks, sure; a month, probably; two months is a very long time to keep so many things on hold. Italy is not China. I expect some measures will stay in place (particularly about large gatherings), but not all.
    - cull 7y ago
      I have been thinking about this for a week while monitoring travel alerts. I have two business trips scheduled—-one in May and the other in June. My employer just canceled my May trip today and I feel that the same is going to happen for June. While I can always reschedule, I fear that my colleagues and friends in Italy, whose families depend on visitors during the months of May and June, will not recover from this.
- asjw 7y ago
  Living in Milan. Given the nature of this outbreak the real issue is not 'when' it is gonna happen anywhere else, but 'when'. Italy has been hit first and I must say the reaction of the regions has been uneven, but in the future if the virus doesn't stop with the warmer weather, maybe your country is gonna keep people from flying abroad, so I think it's very difficult to make proper plans right now and, as far as tourism is concerned, 2020 is gone.
awslattery 7y ago
Mid-April. But booked well before it got crazy. Looks like I'll be SoL unless the US places full travel restrictions.
TeMPOraL 7y ago
Had one end of March. Booked well before COVID-19 was a thing, paid for before it was in Europe. Already cancelled, now we're fighting with the travel agency to waive the cancellation fee.

paganel 7y ago

I hope (and suspect) that the ECB (and Europe as a whole) will financially stand behind Italy, no questions asked (I'm a fellow European).

tanilama 7y ago
I am not European, but I hope EU can act jointly to handle this. Otherwise, EU's future is jeopardy.
PeterStuer 7y ago
You seem to forget that the ECB is there for the banks, not for the people or their countries.
- ohazi 7y ago
  The financial stakeholders in these banks and in Europe as a whole have a powerful motivation to contain this pandemic.
- kspacewalk2 7y ago
  You seem to forget that [ insert deeply ideological sloganeering / extremely arguable value judgment ].
  - andrei_says_ 7y ago
    I wish everyone was addressing trolling face on, like you. Thank you.
- nutjob2 7y ago
  Yes, the ECB is there to support and regulate the banks, that is its job. There is a very good reason for this: if you don't have stable and healthy banks you don't have a functioning economy. People of your ideological ilk see this as some sort of negative but it's absolutely vital. You may think of banks as evil and having a lot of money, but that money is not theirs but "the people's."

oarabbus_ 7y ago

The ripple effect of potential Italian bank defaults will ripple throughout the EU and the USA as well.

tiborsaas 7y ago
The ripple effect is already in place. Flybe airline just defaulted, I've read a post on Linkedin that a small catering firm is suffering in Hungary due to cancelled events and other companies in the food chain will probably suffer a lot more especially if they operate with a razor thin margin. After the human factor, the virus will hit the economy hard. It's probably only a matter of time till it triggers a serious recession. I'd really like to be wrong here.
- kjakm 7y ago
  > Flybe airline just defaulted Although they tried to blame this on Coronavirus that's a small part of it most likely. They nearly folded a few months ago and the government promised them massive tax subsidies which it appears they never followed through on. Regardless my point is that Flybe collapsing his little to nothing to do with Coronavirus. It just accelerated things ever so slightly.
  - toyg 7y ago
    I agree - Flybe is the British Alitalia, they would have cracked at the first crisis anyway. Still, I'm happy to bet that, by June, they will not be the only airline to have folded.
    - cycrutchfield 7y ago
      Most national flagship carriers will get bailed out, you can bet on that.
      - onlyrealcuzzo 7y ago
        Is this something British people support? Or just something you see as inevitable?

thefz 7y ago

I would not worry, past governments have already terribly affected the long-term solvency of the country.

fspeech 7y ago

National debt is merely a number's game. ECB can simply eat it. They are suffering from deflation after all and they could use some inflationary move. Debt accounting for the national governments is there to enforce financial discipline in normal times. Right now it is much more akin to war time. Evenly distributing the pain through bond and currency holders will be seen as just compared to the lives that can be saved through decisive actions.

handedness 7y ago
National debt may be a numbers game, but it's not merely that. There's nothing simple about any ECB decision on monetary policy, and the composition of the EU when combined with the nature of the Euro is such that pain almost by definition can't be evenly distributed.
- fspeech 7y ago
  ECB already implicitly backs every country's bonds. They just need to stick to their stance. After the crisis is over there will be time to work out the cost sharing among European countries.
  - handedness 7y ago
    That is a completely hollow guarantee, though. The ECB's balance sheets are bad enough as it is, and one country's "cost sharing" is another country's forced-austerity to bail out another country's bad loans. The Eurosystem has serious issues that are about to get even worse. The ECB is practically insolvent by their own standards, and would be technically insolvent by American standards.

agumonkey 7y ago

I guess this will be the final straw. The whole planet has to assemble and invent a plan to smooth out the bubble.

bilekas 7y ago

> relies on tourism for its economy Yup, but I got destroyed for that. We will be fine. Just keep your hands clean ffs.

ilugaslifk 7y ago

It seems a little silly to talk about how some particular instance of desperate measures will effect some particular polity, without considering the context of that these measures and the devastation that's tied to them will be present absolutely everywhere within 1-2 months.

simonebrunozzi 7y ago

You would be right; Italy's private savings are in the ballpark of $10T+, which means a "patrimoniale" (tax on wealth) would be the last resort to avoid bankrupcy.