7 ms·

There’s one thing I don’t think Gassée, or many of the people predicting an ARM transition for the Mac, are considering: user patience and goodwill, basically p

There’s one thing I don’t think Gassée, or many of the people predicting an ARM transition for the Mac, are considering: user patience and goodwill, basically political capital with the user base. Apple blew through an incredible amount of it on vanity projects in the 2010s, from the abandoned trashcan Mac Pro to the Touch Bar and butterfly keyboard. They’ve clearly changed course with the 16” MacBook Pro and the 2019 Mac Pro, but they’ve asked a lot of users over the past decade, and this doesn’t quite seem like the right time to ask the entire user base to please be patient once again. In other words, while there’s little question that a switch to ARM is worth the headache for Apple, the critical question is whether Apple can make the case that the switch is worth it for users.

Wowfunhappy 7y ago
You left out one important taker-of-goodwill: loss of 32bit on Catalina. But, the fact this happened just now, in 2019, makes me think Apple doesn't recognize this is a problem at all, or thinks it's too small of a problem to matter.
- solarkraft 7y ago
  I thought Mac OS had been 64 bit only for years and am amazed they kept 32 bit support for that long. When they decide on something they usually do it for real and I appreciate that, because it moves the ecosystem forward.
- raydev 7y ago
  > thinks it's too small of a problem to matter. They know. The loss of 32-bit apps means little to them, because they know it means little to users, and that's why they went through with it.
  - Wowfunhappy 7y ago
    What are you basing this assumption off of? For me, it's an enormous loss. I'm certainly not all users, but neither are you. I think it's pretty clear at this point that the Mac user base has not reacted to Catalina very well. Upgrade rates are abnormally slow. A lot of that is just due to general buggyness (also a problem!), but I think 32bit is some of it as well.
    - raydev 7y ago
      The key is they wouldn't have done it if a large enough number of users relied on 32-bit apps. Pretty obvious. > A lot of that is just due to general buggyness (also a problem!) This is the only thing you're right about. People don't care about 32-bit apps.
      - totony 7y ago
        Most non-tech people that use macs that I know of complained about apps not working anymore (old printers, tablets, etc) (and even paid me to fix it)
- mkj 7y ago
  And getting rid of Dashboard, which had no technical reason to kill even. Daily I find myself cursing that I can't quickly bring up a calendar or unit converter with the dashboard shortcut.
brnt 7y ago
Apart from sentiment, does anyone, including Apple, still care about OSX? Seems that the potential move to ARM will merely be the final nail in its coffin. Apple has removed a lot of backwards compat over the last releases, large app developers seem to not be embracing new systems/APIs, software largely isn't being ported, iOS now has the iPad pro, soon perhaps a laptop. What is the reason for macOS at this point?
- dekhn 7y ago
  to run xcode to build iOS apps. (even my friends who were long-time Mac users/developers are moving off; for many of them, it was the slowly decaying UNIX component of MacOS X, which they originally touted to me)
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
- taylodl 7y ago
  Pixar does, along with many other video/movie producers. There are also a lot of professional musicians and recording engineers using Macs as well. Not to mention all the developers using Macs for iOS app development. None of these activities are realistically viable on an iPad Pro. I think the real issue is OSs aren't very interesting at this point - they're mature and there isn't a lot of sexy sizzle to be added to them.
  - mepian 7y ago
    Doesn't Pixar mostly run Linux? [0][1] And if I remember correctly, before Linux they were an SGI shop. [0] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x9ikzGQW0ys https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x9ikzGQW0ys [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hnFSVx7NhmM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hnFSVx7NhmM
  - jdmg94 7y ago
    there's a Qemu implementation that now runs on iOS, and with services like AWS Cloud9 you can get away with developing on an ipad only setup, at least for most webdevs. Sooner than later someone is going to be able to run android on this: https://github.com/utmapp/UTM https://github.com/utmapp/UTM and then the gates will open to ARM heaven, once developers find a way to do their jobs on an ipad the rest of the industries follow
jillesvangurp 7y ago
The other thing people tend to overlook that Apple has a history of creating new categories of devices. The ipad carved out a niche for itself over time. So did the ipod back in the day. An ipad pro with the fancy keyboard cover is basically a laptop in all but name and I know a few non technical people who insist that's all they need. The next obvious move is to bridge the gap between the two software ecosystems; which is something they started doing a few years ago by allowing IOS applications to run on Mac OS. Blurring the line further, an ipad with the keyboard attached a bit more and the ability to run Mac OS software (similar to how chrome os can run linux packages) would not be that much of a stretch. So, an ARM macbook with a touch screen wouldn't necessarily be that different from an ipad with a keyboard. The hard part is basically all software. Imagine an ipad where you can install your favorite adobe tools, home brew, and an IDE. Probably a lot easier to sell than a macbook that doesn't run most of the software you are used to even though technically they aren't that different in terms of hardware and software. Also, thinking beyond their current device categories; Apple has not done a lot wit VR/AR and gaming centric experiences so far. They've done a little bit via IOS and Apple TV but they've arguably held back a little bit here.
- mark_l_watson 7y ago
  +1, think you have it just right. Apple is looking for new product lines. The Apple Watch is amazing both in design and manufacture, and also in how very useful it is. I tend to use my iPad Pro for just about everything but writing code and it can plug into my large USB-C interfaced monitor. Get XCode on it and a data plan with phone service, and it could be a single device to do everything if it is very small and lightweight and can run everything. Apple has a lot of talent and a ton of money, and I expect them to surprise us, in a good way.
raydev 7y ago
Comments like these always confuse me, because it makes the incorrect assumption that people who love Macs are willing to put up with Windows or Linux, or that Mac users will bother going anywhere else, en masse. Millions of people are still walking around with millions of 2016-2019 TouchBar MBPs. Every person or business who genuinely cares about the Mac Pro is still going to buy one if they can afford it. None of the things you're talking about actually matter to the average person. If they go with ARM, Apple will ensure apps that people use will work. You think they're going to scare off Adobe from making apps? Kill off Logic Pro? Stop the web from working? What would Apple possibly do that bothers a normal person enough that they would check out of Apple's ecosystem?
- ptah 7y ago
  the problem comes in when your apps break and the only way to fix them is to fork out even more money for software upgrades. for music production i have been badly burnt and have moved to hardware synth that will last decades and a mac with logic that will never see another upgrade ever.
icanhackit 7y ago
> user patience and goodwill, basically political capital with the user base. Or they can go down the Trojan Horse route and bolt one of their A-series chips as a co-processor to a board with an x86 CPU, begin the process of rewriting the OS and other assets in their control to run on ARM and provide some encouragement for dev's to make the switch over the next 4-5 years. By having an ARM co-processor lightening the load running system assets they could balance the parts cost by using a previous generation x86 CPU. They've already offloaded the System Management Controller, image signal processor, audio controller, and SSD controller to the T2 chip (64-bit ARMv8 A10 derivative: https://support.apple.com/en-us/HT208862 https://support.apple.com/en-us/HT208862) - the next step would be integrating T2 into a full blown CPU/SOC. Maybe T2 was the beginning of the Trojan Horse?

Wowfunhappy 7y ago

You left out one important taker-of-goodwill: loss of 32bit on Catalina. But, the fact this happened just now, in 2019, makes me think Apple doesn't recognize this is a problem at all, or thinks it's too small of a problem to matter.

solarkraft 7y ago
I thought Mac OS had been 64 bit only for years and am amazed they kept 32 bit support for that long. When they decide on something they usually do it for real and I appreciate that, because it moves the ecosystem forward.
raydev 7y ago
> thinks it's too small of a problem to matter. They know. The loss of 32-bit apps means little to them, because they know it means little to users, and that's why they went through with it.
- Wowfunhappy 7y ago
  What are you basing this assumption off of? For me, it's an enormous loss. I'm certainly not all users, but neither are you. I think it's pretty clear at this point that the Mac user base has not reacted to Catalina very well. Upgrade rates are abnormally slow. A lot of that is just due to general buggyness (also a problem!), but I think 32bit is some of it as well.
  - raydev 7y ago
    The key is they wouldn't have done it if a large enough number of users relied on 32-bit apps. Pretty obvious. > A lot of that is just due to general buggyness (also a problem!) This is the only thing you're right about. People don't care about 32-bit apps.
    - totony 7y ago
      Most non-tech people that use macs that I know of complained about apps not working anymore (old printers, tablets, etc) (and even paid me to fix it)
mkj 7y ago
And getting rid of Dashboard, which had no technical reason to kill even. Daily I find myself cursing that I can't quickly bring up a calendar or unit converter with the dashboard shortcut.

brnt 7y ago

Apart from sentiment, does anyone, including Apple, still care about OSX? Seems that the potential move to ARM will merely be the final nail in its coffin. Apple has removed a lot of backwards compat over the last releases, large app developers seem to not be embracing new systems/APIs, software largely isn't being ported, iOS now has the iPad pro, soon perhaps a laptop. What is the reason for macOS at this point?

dekhn 7y ago
to run xcode to build iOS apps. (even my friends who were long-time Mac users/developers are moving off; for many of them, it was the slowly decaying UNIX component of MacOS X, which they originally touted to me)
deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
taylodl 7y ago
Pixar does, along with many other video/movie producers. There are also a lot of professional musicians and recording engineers using Macs as well. Not to mention all the developers using Macs for iOS app development. None of these activities are realistically viable on an iPad Pro. I think the real issue is OSs aren't very interesting at this point - they're mature and there isn't a lot of sexy sizzle to be added to them.
- mepian 7y ago
  Doesn't Pixar mostly run Linux? [0][1] And if I remember correctly, before Linux they were an SGI shop. [0] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x9ikzGQW0ys https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x9ikzGQW0ys [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hnFSVx7NhmM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hnFSVx7NhmM
- jdmg94 7y ago
  there's a Qemu implementation that now runs on iOS, and with services like AWS Cloud9 you can get away with developing on an ipad only setup, at least for most webdevs. Sooner than later someone is going to be able to run android on this: https://github.com/utmapp/UTM https://github.com/utmapp/UTM and then the gates will open to ARM heaven, once developers find a way to do their jobs on an ipad the rest of the industries follow

jillesvangurp 7y ago

The other thing people tend to overlook that Apple has a history of creating new categories of devices. The ipad carved out a niche for itself over time. So did the ipod back in the day. An ipad pro with the fancy keyboard cover is basically a laptop in all but name and I know a few non technical people who insist that's all they need. The next obvious move is to bridge the gap between the two software ecosystems; which is something they started doing a few years ago by allowing IOS applications to run on Mac OS. Blurring the line further, an ipad with the keyboard attached a bit more and the ability to run Mac OS software (similar to how chrome os can run linux packages) would not be that much of a stretch. So, an ARM macbook with a touch screen wouldn't necessarily be that different from an ipad with a keyboard. The hard part is basically all software. Imagine an ipad where you can install your favorite adobe tools, home brew, and an IDE. Probably a lot easier to sell than a macbook that doesn't run most of the software you are used to even though technically they aren't that different in terms of hardware and software. Also, thinking beyond their current device categories; Apple has not done a lot wit VR/AR and gaming centric experiences so far. They've done a little bit via IOS and Apple TV but they've arguably held back a little bit here.

mark_l_watson 7y ago
+1, think you have it just right. Apple is looking for new product lines. The Apple Watch is amazing both in design and manufacture, and also in how very useful it is. I tend to use my iPad Pro for just about everything but writing code and it can plug into my large USB-C interfaced monitor. Get XCode on it and a data plan with phone service, and it could be a single device to do everything if it is very small and lightweight and can run everything. Apple has a lot of talent and a ton of money, and I expect them to surprise us, in a good way.

raydev 7y ago

Comments like these always confuse me, because it makes the incorrect assumption that people who love Macs are willing to put up with Windows or Linux, or that Mac users will bother going anywhere else, en masse. Millions of people are still walking around with millions of 2016-2019 TouchBar MBPs. Every person or business who genuinely cares about the Mac Pro is still going to buy one if they can afford it. None of the things you're talking about actually matter to the average person. If they go with ARM, Apple will ensure apps that people use will work. You think they're going to scare off Adobe from making apps? Kill off Logic Pro? Stop the web from working? What would Apple possibly do that bothers a normal person enough that they would check out of Apple's ecosystem?

ptah 7y ago
the problem comes in when your apps break and the only way to fix them is to fork out even more money for software upgrades. for music production i have been badly burnt and have moved to hardware synth that will last decades and a mac with logic that will never see another upgrade ever.

icanhackit 7y ago

> user patience and goodwill, basically political capital with the user base. Or they can go down the Trojan Horse route and bolt one of their A-series chips as a co-processor to a board with an x86 CPU, begin the process of rewriting the OS and other assets in their control to run on ARM and provide some encouragement for dev's to make the switch over the next 4-5 years. By having an ARM co-processor lightening the load running system assets they could balance the parts cost by using a previous generation x86 CPU. They've already offloaded the System Management Controller, image signal processor, audio controller, and SSD controller to the T2 chip (64-bit ARMv8 A10 derivative: https://support.apple.com/en-us/HT208862 https://support.apple.com/en-us/HT208862) - the next step would be integrating T2 into a full blown CPU/SOC. Maybe T2 was the beginning of the Trojan Horse?