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Stanford cancels in-person classes for rest of the quarter
- brown9-2 7y agoSeems worth noting that the quarter would end in two weeks anyway.
- whatevertrevor 7y agoStanford cancels in-person classes for the next two weeks doesn't sound as dramatic though.
- meritt 7y agoI look forward to HN's resident statistics gurus to explain how the traditional flu and drunk driving kill more people per year than the paltry 14 deaths in the US and therefore everyone is overreacting. Edit: Apparently my sarcasm wasn't thick enough so let me make my point crystal: COVID-19 is a real, genuine threat that's just getting started, but HN is filled with armchair fuckwits [1][2] who dismiss it because they lack simple math skills. [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22507532 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22507532 [2] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22508819 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22508819
- ryeights 7y agoWell, seems you’ve done it already!
- spicyramen 7y agoAgree, do we know those 14 deaths age and medical history?
- vikramkr 7y agoThis while "not that many people have died stop overreacting" stuff makes no sense to me. The whole point is to stop it before more people die. We have testing shortages and world leaders such as in China and Iran buried need about the disease, which has led to thousands of deaths. If we wait for 1-3% of the world population to die before deciding it meets some statistical threshold to start reacting - then that just makes no sense. We're trying to stop people from dying - we can't bring people back after they're gone.
- _-___________-_ 7y ago> We're trying to stop people from dying - we can't bring people back after they're gone. All of the coronavirus deaths have been people that were going to die anyway. (Edited to clarify: we all do, at least currently.) The vast majority of them have been people that were going to die soon, if not of coronavirus then of something else. Is the mass panic really sensible in the face of this?
- fishtacos 7y ago"All of the coronavirus deaths have been people that were going to die anyway." Life is a terminal condition, Jack Handey.
- _-___________-_ 7y agoExactly, although I suspect the sentence may be being read to mean something else by the downvoters...
- fishtacos 7y agoI suspect my response may be being read to mean something else by you, as well. Anyway, this isn't Reddit and I'll refrain from further responses so as to be respectful to the netiquette of this site.
- pbourke 7y ago> to be respectful to the netiquette of this site. Which is to deeply inhale one’s own farts and declare them delightful.
- dang 7y agoI try not to lose sleep over aspects of HN that are true of humans in general. He had reason to believe the stercoraceous flavour, condemned by prejudice as a stink, was, in fact, most agreeable to the organs of smelling; for, that every person who pretended to nauseate the smell of another’s excretions, snuffed up his own with particular complacency; for the truth of which he appealed to all the ladies and gentlemen then present. https://www.gutenberg.org/files/2160/2160-h/2160-h.htm https://www.gutenberg.org/files/2160/2160-h/2160-h.htm
- vikramkr 7y agoThere are well over 3000 deaths worldwide. The point is to stop the death toll from getting worse. For example, the death toll from smoking is very low in a population of people that don't smoke. The number of dead people killed by coronavirus is also low in the US because most people don't have it yet. The whole point is to keep it that way. And given the enormous amount of investment we as a society put into mitigating deaths from car accidents and the flu (safety features and testing, vaccinations, etc), cancelling classes to stop the spread of a disease more deadly than the flu without a vaccine is not an overreaction. We have a major testing kit shortage right now. China and Iran have been covering up how bad the case was and suppressed information about it's spread early on. We haven't been reacting enough. What we need right now is a clear eyed understanding of the risks this causes for the health of the populace (just because it's only so far proving a particularly dangerous concern in the elderly and people with pre-existing conditions doesn't mean those deaths count any less and that reactions should be any less strong). We're already seeing the economic impacts as work and exports grind to a halt as people are staying in quarantine if they are sick to avoid putting the vulnerable in danger. And these testing shortages mean we don't know the full extent of the disease spread. So no, we aren't overreacting. If the response is successful, then we'll max out at a couple dozen dead. That doesn't mean the disease wasn't a big deal, that means that the reaction worked to contain it.
- tanilama 7y agoNobody is overreacting drinking or driving causes death through the year, while covid19 is like a DDOS to the health system. Expect to be neglected if you get caught by a huge outbreak, thus the fear. Not to mention if the outbreak escalated it will become Spanish-flu V2 then we are talking about 10 of millions people dying, and hundreds of thousands dying in US alone. COVID19 is probably the most disastrous disease in our lives, assuming most of us haven’t been through Spanish flu. It almost felt like this virus is tailored to live with us. I will take no chance and do the protections from my part as careful as possible
- thrav 7y agoIf there’s any truth in the fringes, this virus might in fact have been tailored.
- _-___________-_ 7y agoThese people are not "fuckwits", they just have a more balanced viewpoint than you.
- meritt 7y agoI disagree. When someone looks at an epidemic that just made landfall a month ago and compares those numbers on an absolute basis to a virus (seasonal flu) that's completely embedded in the fabric of the entire US, and concludes that since A<B, it's not a threat, they are indeed a complete fuckwit.
- _-___________-_ 7y agoI read the two comments you linked and it does not appear that either of them are doing what you say they are.
- elorenz 7y agoTo make your argument convincing, you should explain the difference between the coronavirus and the seasonal flu, and why is it invalid to compare the mortality rates of the two.
- stopping 7y agoHow would you characterize the current public response to COVID-19? What aspects do you think indicate under-preparation? What aspects do you think are hysterical or overly cautious? To what extent do you believe it is prudent and reasonable to shut down businesses, schools, and other public places to prevent the spread of the disease? How do you weigh the cost of constricting economic and social activity compared to the cost of the disease itself? Anybody who is willing to pass (IMHO) bad-faith judgments on well-intentioned users should be also willing to answer these sorts of questions.
- mjevans 7y agoI heard the University of Washington (WA state) has done that too. Edit: Citation: https://www.washington.edu/news/2020/03/06/press-conference-university-of-washingtons-response-to-covid-19/ https://www.washington.edu/news/2020/03/06/press-conference-...
- divbzero 7y agoYes, I think UW cancelled on-site classes Friday morning when a staff member tested positive. [1] [1]: https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/university-of-washington-suspends-in-person-classes-in-response-to-coronavirus/ https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/university-of-wash...
- zaroth 7y agoUniversity of Washington at least had a single positive COVID case in an employee. Stanford seems to have canceled two weeks of classes and quarter-finals without even a single presumptive case on campus? Presumably all these kids are still living in dorms together and eating together in dining halls...
- ISL 7y agoStanford is smart. Closing up before cases appear is the very definition of a precaution. Source: I work at UW, was very perturbed that classes/operations hadn't been cancelled when it was quite clear that a case would eventually appear.
- _-___________-_ 7y agoShall we close everything up then, just in case? Maybe then we should keep everything closed, as a precaution against other infectious diseases, including as-yet-unknown future ones?
- ISL 7y agoWhen UW's own researchers had shown that there were likely to be at least a few hundred cases in the Seattle area and only tens had been found, the probability that the outbreak would end without reaching campus was already slim.
- narrator 7y agoWith the CDC director saying that this thing is going to be a regular seasonal visitor[1], it makes me wonder what long-term impact this is going to have on society. [1] https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/13/health/coronavirus-cdc-robert-redfield-gupta-intv/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/13/health/coronavirus-cdc-robert...
- ReptileMan 7y agoNot that high. After all it kills best old people with comorbidities. So it competes with the flu and heart attacks. While a lot of people will die from corona complications I don't expect total mortality to increase that much. You can die only once ..
- _-___________-_ 7y agoThat entirely depends on whether society decides to have the current panic wave every year, or deals with it in a more reasonable manner. Hopefully after people see how much they overreacted this time, they won't be inclined to next season.
- ehsankia 7y agoOnce a vaccine is created, couldn't the people the most at danger get vaccinated and everyone else too, created herd immunity?
- Ozzie_osman 7y agoI'd actually be curious. Is it the type of thing where a vaccine ends it? Or will it be like the flu where it's always mutating and so the vaccine helps but it's still always out there in some form.
- sterlind 7y agoNot an expert, but creating a perennial vaccine depends on the mutation rate and which highly-conserved regions can be targeted. One of the potential vaccines enrolling trial patients is made of mRNA that codes for the spike protein needed for entry to cells. [0] If that spike protein turns out to be highly-conserved, then the vaccine will have sticking power. If it's not, but there turn out to be evolutionary trade-offs to adapting around it, it could push the virus to become less aggressive. 0. https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04283461 https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04283461
- isjustaguy 7y ago$250,000 for an elite education and one virus has sunken Stanford to University of Phoenix lows. Totally slumming it.
- yumraj 7y agoI just don't understand why the schools haven't cancelled classes in the Bay area..
- wahern 7y agoFor how long? A week? A month? If widespread infection is successfully avoided in a particular region, there's no herd immunity if it circles back again, so you'd have to cancel again and again and again. How long are you willing to keep kids out of school? They could easily lose half the school year or more. Considering that serious complications seem to be confined to older adults and the elderly (as opposed to seasonal influenza, which is also dangerous for very small kids), perhaps it's better to let it burn through the population as quickly as possible. It might be easier to keep the vulnerable population confined for a short period during the burn; once there's herd immunity (assuming infection provides immunity, of course) they should be safe. Stanford students can just do distance learning. The infrastructure for primary and secondary schools just isn't in place to provide that, so they're forced to make more difficult decisions about the needs of their students and the curriculum on the one hand, and the risks to students' families and the wider population on the other hand.
- 411111111111111 7y ago> Considering that serious complications seem to be confined to older adults and the elderly This is misinformation. Its just way more likely to kill the elderly them the young. The same applies to the influenza however, and the preliminary numbers make this strain more deadly than influenza in both elderly and adults. But nevertheless: we just don't know with the virus just taking hold outside of China. Give it 3 more weeks and realistic estimates are possible.
- wahern 7y agoIt's been widely reported that there were no deaths among children 10 or younger (at least until a few days ago) despite a not insignificant number of infections among that age group, and even the CDC says that young children are low risk (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/specific-groups/children-faq.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/specific-groups/ch...). This was also the case with SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV. By contrast, children under 5 years old are at high risk for complications from seasonal influenza. (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/highrisk/children.htm https://www.cdc.gov/flu/highrisk/children.htm). And there were quite a few deaths of children during the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic, both in absolute and relative terms. (https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm5834a1.htm https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm5834a1.htm) This isn't surprising because influenza is a completely different virus from coronavirus. Of course the elderly and sick are far more at risk for any of these. All of these viruses kill by causing pneumonia--primary viral pneumonia in the case of SARS and MERS, secondary bacterial pneumonia in the case of seasonal influenza, and a seeming mix of primary and secondary pneumonia in the case of 2009 H1N1. People with cardiopulmonary problems are far more likely to succumb to pneumonia if only because their lungs are already compromised.
- mrmonkeyman 7y agoYes, instead of adapting and living with the reality of flu-like illnesses roaming around we will declare a war on nature itself and will tank our economy and with it society. Because, flu-like symptoms. The worst imaginable experience is now here. Flu.
- shaunxcode 7y agoWhat a shame it would be if this led to the realization that I person was always a waste of time.
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- myrandomcomment 7y agoIn Italy: "The national health institute said the average age of those who have died was 81, with the majority suffering from underlying health problems. An estimated 72% of all those who have died were men. According to government data, 4.25% of individuals confirmed to have the coronavirus have died, the highest rate in the world." It is really really important for people to understand the risk group and take that into account in their lives and interactions. For those that are young and health the risk is still low. The panic level of the general populous does not fit the facts at this point.
- pishpash 7y agoI don't think you want to be making guesses when you're dealing with something where there may be no modern medicine to fall back on. You're talking about a 19th century situation here.
- jacquesm 7y agoThose who are young and healthy can infect those who are older.
- tinyhouse 7y agoThat's true for flu and others. Instead of closing schools people at risk should be very cautious. The question is how much more contegious it is than flu. Unless it's order of magnitude higher, there is no reason to close schools and ban travel.
- JoeAltmaier 7y agoNot quite. Its not going to be ok if this is 'just as contagious', because outcomes are likely much worse. We'll want to be 10x more careful; closing schools is then a reasonable strategy.
- tinyhouse 7y agoMaybe. Saying the outcome is much worse is too early. There are many numbers reported that are likely incorrect. The Corona ship had around 700 people infected and less than one precent died (six people). All were 70+. We don't know if they had any pre-existing conditions but at least two of the people who died were close to 90. That's much lower than some of the numbers coming from China and Italy. But at least we can trust the numbers from the ship since it was a "controlled experiment".
- eric4smith 7y agoGonna be big changes if the outbreak continues for a longer time. Here in Vietnam, we're seeing what 2 months of school closures mean. Children go to work with their parents now. My breakfast Pho place has a little dude who man's the register and is learning how the business works from his family. Kids play in the park after morning studies at home. It's not all sun and roses of course, but it's an interesting forced experiment that's happening under our very noses. The big losers are people who see the "school building" as the only way to learn. The winners are going to be those who embrace methods and technologies that help people learn without the rote of the traditional classroom.
- mariushn 7y agoIt was about time to change! Hope this will lead to * more Khan Academy-like content * free textbooks available to everybody in the world * software companions to help children advance according to their exact needs and level (instead of being stuck in a 20-person class herd) * online teachers paid by the hour or monthly subscription available for students * less emphasis on expensive certifications and more on 'what can you accomplish' What opportunities or hopeful outcomes do you see?
- melling 7y agoIt would be great if Stanford simply recorded all their lectures in HD and released them on YouTube.
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- 101404 7y agoNot everybody is able and sufficient self controlled to self study off Khan or EdX or similar platforms.
- dougmwne 7y agoFunny, I would say that's probably the most powerful and impactful thing a person could learn. Better then being force-fed every math concept in existence. And how would people learn to self-study without incentive and opertunity?
- yodsanklai 7y agoThese types of measure are expected to slow down the propagation of the virus, which should at least help hospitals to manage the flow of patients, and overall save some time. The virus could decline naturally in the summer, or a treatment could be found. But all these containment measures will also slow down the economy, which will have a cost too. What I find interesting is that it seems a lot of people ask for greater containment (closing schools and borders, canceling events and conference), while at the same time, measures such as reducing speed limit, taxing junk food are hugely unpopular. I think it's similar in the sense that this would reduce mortality in exchange of loss of freedom and economic activity.
- the8472 7y ago> which will have a cost too Yeah, a pity that carbon certificate value will fall.
- coryfklein 7y ago> or a treatment could be found. A vaccine should not be expected for ~2 years from what I hear. Of course, not all treatments are vaccines.
- remarkEon 7y agoAs all of these closures happen we're going to see a massive stress test of the modern economy. HN has already seen a lot of comments about the remote work experiment that's currently in-progress, but the other experiment is this: what are we going to do with kids when their schools are closed and both parents work? A lot of moms work these days, and that's going to make things a lot harder for keeping kids at home. Not trying to pass any judgement on women in the workforce, just pointing out that in black swan events like this it makes reacting to it a lot harder from a social perspective. Consider for a moment if most women stayed at home: school being cancelled would be annoying, but manageable. I've already heard from friends (on the west coast) that they have no idea how to handle this (kids are grade school age, 2nd and 3rd grade) given that they're both expected to still do their jobs remotely.
- Mirioron 7y agoIt's normal here that kids aged 7-8 and up usually go to school on their own and come home on their own. Then they stay at home on (or go out to play) until their parents come home from work. So, can't you just leave the kid at home? I've heard anecdotes from the US and western Europe that this isn't done, but surely you can do that in cases like this? Edit: I don't see how this doesn't cause a massive hit to the economy though. Some workplaces will be shut down and if stuff isn't produced then the economy isn't moving.
- cydonian_monk 7y agoEven 35 years ago when I was in the 7-8 age range and still living in my childhood part of the US, being left at home all day without supervision would have resulted in a visit from Child Protective Services had anyone found out. Just being alone on weekend evenings while my (single, divorced) mom went to her second job was enough to tick off some folks. These days I'd be afraid they'd send in a SWAT team to arrest the parents and "rescue" the kids.
- yodsanklai 7y agoWhat age is considered ok for kids to be alone nowadays in the US?
- harry8 7y agoInvestors in Coursera, Udemy must be counting their blessings. Remote is good enough for Stanford fee levels.
- gdubs 7y agoRelatedly it was announced today that a faculty member at the Stanford school of Medicine tested positive: https://www.ktvu.com/news/stanford-educator-tests-positive-for-the-coronavirus https://www.ktvu.com/news/stanford-educator-tests-positive-f...