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Easy. %20 of the cases require some type of hospitalization. %80 are mild and don't require medical attention. If you have Covid-19 rampant in your town - the

Easy. %20 of the cases require some type of hospitalization. %80 are mild and don't require medical attention. If you have Covid-19 rampant in your town - the hospitals will fill with persons experiencing a bad flu - that %20. https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-80-percent-cases-are-mild-2020-2 https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-80-percent-cases...

mdszy 7y ago
>%20 >%80 that's not how percentages are written, ever.
EthanHeilman 7y ago
Is it still the case that you have a two week latency before symptoms? If so, that would make detecting the early stages of an outbreak without testing exceptionally hard.
- jcadam 7y ago
  Last I read it was anywhere from 2 - 14 days.
- pps 7y ago
  > Current estimates of the incubation period range from 1 to 14 days with a median of 5 to 6 days, although recent case reports suggest that the incubation period may be as long as 24 days, which is longer than the 14 days that WHO and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) have been using to inform quarantine policies. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762510 https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762510
- Kliment 7y ago
  Here is some data from 1100 early cases in China. Median incubation period is 4 days, interquartile is 2-7 days. 14 days is a very distant outlier, and it's possible there was an intermediate carrier or two in those cases. https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2002032 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2002032
- lubesGordi 7y ago
  I think that's true only if transmission is possible before noticing symptoms.
  - gattilorenz 7y ago
    Relatively rare but transmission between asymptomatic people has been detected/confirmed for this virus.
matwood 7y ago
Yeah, this is more serious than the flu, but not as serious as MERS or SARS. Like the seasonal flu, the main worry is older people and/or people who are already respiratory compromised. I don't want to catch this much like I don't want to catch the flu, but my main worry is for my parents and grandparents.
- edejong 7y ago
  This is way more serious than the flu in multiple ways. First of all, estimates show that the case fatality ratio (CFR) is around 2%, which is 20x higher than the flu. This number is likely to rise when ICUs are becoming over-constrained and cannot take new patients. This is already happening in the north of Italy as we speak. Second, the transmissibility of the SARS-nCov-2019 (the virus causing COVID-19) is much higher than the seasonal flu. This means the period within which a demand will be made on healthcare services will be much shorter and much more intense. Third, there are reports showing lasting damage to kidney and lung tissue (sponge-like structures). Even when surviving COVID-19, previously healthy people might become chronically ill. Fourth, in order to prevent at least part of what I am describing, very stringent measures are required. These already have a historic impact on our worldwide economy and will hit developed countries the most (since they require a worldwide infrastructure). It is very likely that the impact will become unprecedented as various continents are considering and implementing large-scale quarantine measures. Concluding, comparing COVID-19 with the regular flu is both simplistic and dangerous. Prepare yourself and your loved ones for a bumpy ride.
  - edejong 7y ago
    Care to explain the down-voting?
    - Loughla 7y ago
      I'll take a stab at why you're being down-voted.: >case fatality ratio (CFR) is around 2%, which is 20x higher than the flu. [Citation needed] >This number is likely to rise when ICUs are becoming over-constrained and cannot take new patients. This is already happening in the north of Italy as we speak. [Citation Needed] I can find citations for crowded hospitals in popular media, but nothing about the death rate increasing. >Third, there are reports showing lasting damage to kidney and lung tissue (sponge-like structures). Even when surviving COVID-19, previously healthy people might become chronically ill. [Major Citation Needed] >very stringent measures are required [Citation Needed] That's probably why. There are 4 claims you've made that need to be backed up with facts.
jerf 7y ago
I'm not sure we have the confidence to run the logic that way right now. There are still some ways to harmonize "this hit China really hard" and "this won't impact much of the rest of the world" at this point. I've seen it hypothesized since before it even spread out of China that this may happen to target some people more than others based on different levels that people express the receptor that this virus targets. There's also some reason to wonder if China is getting hammered due to widespread smoking [1], and even more widespread exposure to pollution levels that are not entirely dissimilar to smoking. If, perchance, all of these factors are true at once, then it could be that what was in China was a perfect storm for them, and it'll be just a cold for everybody else. We still don't really have the evidence in yet to know. At the moment we can fit the facts both to "everyone's in big trouble" and "it isn't that big a deal anywhere else". In some ways, the best possible news would be that it's been spreading in the US for weeks... and we didn't notice, because it's literally not noticeable because it's not that big a deal here. I'm not pitching that as "truth" at the moment, but it's on the table. [1]: https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202002.0051/v1 https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202002.0051/v1 - note this preprint disagrees with the "differential expression" theory; given it's "early days" I'm taking this merely as a data point, not proof yet. This could explain how it's a catastrophe in a high-pollution city and just "a cold" everywhere else. This scenario raises the interesting possibility that covid-19 could have started anywhere, and it simply wasn't noticed until it happened to get to Wuhan through normal mechanisms. What if "patient 0" turns out to be an asymptomatic business traveler from $NOT_CHINA? I'll call this a low-probability outcome, but what if we start widespread testing in the US only to discover that almost everyone already has it?

mdszy 7y ago

>%20 >%80 that's not how percentages are written, ever.

EthanHeilman 7y ago

Is it still the case that you have a two week latency before symptoms? If so, that would make detecting the early stages of an outbreak without testing exceptionally hard.

jcadam 7y ago
Last I read it was anywhere from 2 - 14 days.
pps 7y ago
> Current estimates of the incubation period range from 1 to 14 days with a median of 5 to 6 days, although recent case reports suggest that the incubation period may be as long as 24 days, which is longer than the 14 days that WHO and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) have been using to inform quarantine policies. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762510 https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762510
Kliment 7y ago
Here is some data from 1100 early cases in China. Median incubation period is 4 days, interquartile is 2-7 days. 14 days is a very distant outlier, and it's possible there was an intermediate carrier or two in those cases. https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2002032 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2002032
lubesGordi 7y ago
I think that's true only if transmission is possible before noticing symptoms.
- gattilorenz 7y ago
  Relatively rare but transmission between asymptomatic people has been detected/confirmed for this virus.

matwood 7y ago

Yeah, this is more serious than the flu, but not as serious as MERS or SARS. Like the seasonal flu, the main worry is older people and/or people who are already respiratory compromised. I don't want to catch this much like I don't want to catch the flu, but my main worry is for my parents and grandparents.

edejong 7y ago
This is way more serious than the flu in multiple ways. First of all, estimates show that the case fatality ratio (CFR) is around 2%, which is 20x higher than the flu. This number is likely to rise when ICUs are becoming over-constrained and cannot take new patients. This is already happening in the north of Italy as we speak. Second, the transmissibility of the SARS-nCov-2019 (the virus causing COVID-19) is much higher than the seasonal flu. This means the period within which a demand will be made on healthcare services will be much shorter and much more intense. Third, there are reports showing lasting damage to kidney and lung tissue (sponge-like structures). Even when surviving COVID-19, previously healthy people might become chronically ill. Fourth, in order to prevent at least part of what I am describing, very stringent measures are required. These already have a historic impact on our worldwide economy and will hit developed countries the most (since they require a worldwide infrastructure). It is very likely that the impact will become unprecedented as various continents are considering and implementing large-scale quarantine measures. Concluding, comparing COVID-19 with the regular flu is both simplistic and dangerous. Prepare yourself and your loved ones for a bumpy ride.
- edejong 7y ago
  Care to explain the down-voting?
  - Loughla 7y ago
    I'll take a stab at why you're being down-voted.: >case fatality ratio (CFR) is around 2%, which is 20x higher than the flu. [Citation needed] >This number is likely to rise when ICUs are becoming over-constrained and cannot take new patients. This is already happening in the north of Italy as we speak. [Citation Needed] I can find citations for crowded hospitals in popular media, but nothing about the death rate increasing. >Third, there are reports showing lasting damage to kidney and lung tissue (sponge-like structures). Even when surviving COVID-19, previously healthy people might become chronically ill. [Major Citation Needed] >very stringent measures are required [Citation Needed] That's probably why. There are 4 claims you've made that need to be backed up with facts.

jerf 7y ago

I'm not sure we have the confidence to run the logic that way right now. There are still some ways to harmonize "this hit China really hard" and "this won't impact much of the rest of the world" at this point. I've seen it hypothesized since before it even spread out of China that this may happen to target some people more than others based on different levels that people express the receptor that this virus targets. There's also some reason to wonder if China is getting hammered due to widespread smoking [1], and even more widespread exposure to pollution levels that are not entirely dissimilar to smoking. If, perchance, all of these factors are true at once, then it could be that what was in China was a perfect storm for them, and it'll be just a cold for everybody else. We still don't really have the evidence in yet to know. At the moment we can fit the facts both to "everyone's in big trouble" and "it isn't that big a deal anywhere else". In some ways, the best possible news would be that it's been spreading in the US for weeks... and we didn't notice, because it's literally not noticeable because it's not that big a deal here. I'm not pitching that as "truth" at the moment, but it's on the table. [1]: https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202002.0051/v1 https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202002.0051/v1 - note this preprint disagrees with the "differential expression" theory; given it's "early days" I'm taking this merely as a data point, not proof yet. This could explain how it's a catastrophe in a high-pollution city and just "a cold" everywhere else. This scenario raises the interesting possibility that covid-19 could have started anywhere, and it simply wasn't noticed until it happened to get to Wuhan through normal mechanisms. What if "patient 0" turns out to be an asymptomatic business traveler from $NOT_CHINA? I'll call this a low-probability outcome, but what if we start widespread testing in the US only to discover that almost everyone already has it?