11 ms·

Oregon has first confirmed Covid-19 case

167 points by rediguanayum 7y ago

joering2 7y ago
At this point I wonder why won't the government mail everyone a N95 mask to slow down the spread. I mean IRS knows everyone address with the price of each mask of 65 cents it would be few million buck at the most. But would raise awareness across the US.
- pfdietz 7y ago
  Because they don't have 370 million N95 masks.
  - joering2 7y ago
    Most suppliers will prioritize government over civilians and I know this because I was purchasing 700 masks for my company. Besides, government can setup its own factory. I know enough how these masks are assembled to tell you its not a rocket science.
    - s1artibartfast 7y ago
      How long would it take to set up the factory and the are the source materials available?
  - adrianN 7y ago
    I wonder how long it would take to make them if we wanted to.
    - _delirium 7y ago
      China produces 200,000 N95 respirators per day [1]. So it would take China about 5 years to produce the asked-for 370 million N95 respirators. I can't find numbers for the US, but most people seem to assume that production is lower than in China. Whether that could be quickly ramped up, I also don't know. [1] https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3050717/coronavirus-chinas-surgical-mask-shortage-ripples-through https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3050717/c...
      - deleted 7y ago
        [deleted]
  - belltaco 7y ago
    They actually do. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/to-your-health/wp/2018/04/24/inside-the-secret-u-s-stockpile-meant-to-save-us-all-in-a-bioterror-attack/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/to-your-health/wp/2018/0...
    - pfdietz 7y ago
      The US Strategic National Stockpile currently has 12 million N95 masks and 30 M surgical masks.
- jedberg 7y ago
  Because n95 masks don’t really help unless you use them perfectly and most people wouldn’t even wear it anyway. What the government should be doing is drastically increase testing. Test anyone whose been to any country with a current case. And anyone they’ve been in contact with. And anyone whose been in an international airport in the last two weeks. And then pay for all those tests.
  - joering2 7y ago
    How can testing help when people don't have symptoms for 5 days during this time they can pass it on to many other people. Unless you want somehow to test all 300 mil people overnight? Masks will really help because this virus mostly is spread thru touch of soiled surface. And people tend to touch everything and then touch their face, nose, lips etc. Mask will limit that.
    - jedberg 7y ago
      Like I said you test all the people most likely to have come in contact. And that’s exactly why masks don’t work. People touch the outside of the mask to remove it and then their eyes or nose or they eat. People don’t understand you have to wash your hands after removing the mask.
      - joering2 7y ago
        I hear you. Too bad a mask cannot possible come with a manual. /s
        jedberg 7y ago
        How many people read manuals? Especially for something simple like a mask? They assume they know how to use it properly.
  - Johnny555 7y ago
    There's already community spread, it's too late to test only people who visited infected countries. Testing everyone, including asymptomatic people is not feasible, there aren't nearly enough testing supplies (right now, California has 200 test kits for the entire state). And even if they had the supplies, finding the staff to do the tests is nearly impossible.
- kebman 7y ago
  Masks primarily protect others from you, if you are sick. They generally do not protect against others having the disease. If there are aerosols with the virus nearby, a mask won't help you, because your eyes are still exposed. I agree that testing is the way to go, but there are only so many tests you can do (physically, depending on supplies), so you really have to prioritize those who have actual symptoms.
  - adrianN 7y ago
    If everybody wore a mask transmission risk would be lower, because the sick people would also wear a mask.
  - wolco 7y ago
    I've heard this repeated many times over the last few weeks. Never heard the aerosol angle. On the surface it makes sense that masks wouldn't help. The more I think about it I come to a different conclusion. Masks do cut down water vapor being absorbed through the nose/mouth. It's not 100% but this isn't anthrax where a tiny droplet could kill everyone. Many people would use it improperly but simple public service announment instruction could solve that issue. Instead they use valuable public serivce announment time to tell everyone not to use a mask. I believe they do this to get people to not buy masks because they are afraid of supply issues. If we had a huge supply of masks people would be encouraged because it would cut down on spreading.
    - frivoal 7y ago
      Some countries do have a huge mask supply: in Japan for instance, wearing a mask if you have a cold / in the cold season / in the pollen allergy season / … is very normal, and almost everybody has a box or two of masks laying around the house. If masks are even remotely useful, telling people not to were the masks they already own (because you touch your face or something) is also pretty nasty.
- Johnny555 7y ago
  Aside from the problems with training 300M people to use a mask (and guaranteed, most people won't wear them properly - a properly fitting mask is uncomfortable), it's not just "1" mask, it's at least one mask a day. So to cover the USA for 10 days, that's 3 billion masks. There aren't that many masks available.
  - 9nGQluzmnq3M 7y ago
    It's even worse than that: regular surgical masks are only effective for 4 hours or so.
    - Johnny555 7y ago
      I was assuming an N95 respirator and some sources say they can be used for a workday as long as they haven't become contaminated from direct exposure to bodily fluids -- there's no point in equipping the country with surgical masks since they won't offer any significant protection from the virus anyway.
  - endogui 7y ago
    In shortage situations, one mask reused properly is better than no mask. I work at a medical center in Korea and we are under the following instructions: 1. Place masks for reuse in a specific place to avoid cross contamination. 2. Treat the outside of the mask as contaminated. Don't touch. 3. Wash hands after wearing a reused mask. 4. Throw out masks if they get wet, damaged, or (N95 only) folded.
hn_throwaway_99 7y ago
With now 3 cases of unknown origin, it's pretty obvious that widespread community transmission is inevitable - because it's already happening. SXSW is scheduled to start in Austin in 2 weeks. There will be tens of thousands of people flying into Austin, many of whom will be coming from places where coronavirus is circulating in the community. They will hang out with tens of thousands of other people from around the world, often in packed-to-the-gills music venues where they are at various levels of intoxication. They will all fly home to their places of origin a week later.
- avocado4 7y ago
  I'm expecting a cancellation announcement for SXSW in the next days.
  - teruakohatu 7y ago
    I really hope they do. In reality they will probably only cancel if they can get insurance to pay out. Does anyone know if event insurance pays out for "not a pandemic but actually it is"? My hunch would be they don't.
- abootstrapper 7y ago
  I haven't been in ages, but the "SXSW Crud" used to be a common concept. Too much booze, lack of sleep, lots of handshaking, + cold and flu. It knocked me out hard 2 years in a row. After that I started getting the flu shot yearly and avoiding physical touching at events. Hosting SXSW during this inevitable pandemic is a terrible terrible idea.
  - mike_d 7y ago
    We generically refer to this in the security community as "ConFlu," because it happens at every conference.
    - Izkata 7y ago
      At fan conventions (gaming, anime, etc), "Con Crud".
marklacey 7y ago
[removed due to state change]
- melling 7y ago
  The Washington Post says it has been confirmed: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/02/28/coronavirus-live-updates/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/02/28/coronavirus-...
- anonsivalley652 7y ago
  No, it's confirmed. https://www.oregon.gov/oha/PH/DISEASESCONDITIONS/DISEASESAZ/Pages/emerging-respiratory-infections.aspx https://www.oregon.gov/oha/PH/DISEASESCONDITIONS/DISEASESAZ/...
mperham 7y ago
My son attends that school. We literally got the call while hosting an evening party for him and several friends. Gonna be a rough week.
- marklacey 7y ago
  Sorry to hear that and hope it’s not too stressful!
- jacquesm 7y ago
  Oh that sucks. I'm so sorry to hear that. Every day I drop one of my children off at school and I feel like I'm playing a very macabre form of lottery. But it's illegal here to keep your children out of school and of course there will have to be some disaster first before they will close the schools.
  - cjbprime 7y ago
    For what it's worth, I was surprised to see not just that there's age skew in mortality (no children have died) but also age skew in diagnosed infection (far fewer children are reporting symptoms than you'd expect). Of course, we can still worry about children infecting high-risk groups, etc.
    - maxden 7y ago
      but how would you know if you have covid-19 if you have symptoms of a common cold and you haven't been exposed to the reported high risk items. Although as it gets more widespread it could come from anywhere. Will we get to a point where if we have cold like symptoms we are expected to consider the virus and act accordingly?
      - allannienhuis 7y ago
        Well, isn't that the case today with the flu? We always think 'it's just a cold, I'll tough it out', but we could be (and often are) fighting the first symptoms of influenza. Shouldn't we treat it as such, to avoid spreading it to the most at-risk? Influenza is basically as deadly as this new virus, and a much more present danger. But we don't treat it with anywhere near the same degree of caution. Why is that?
anonsivalley652 7y ago
And, at the present time: 76 under monitoring (people who may have been exposed) 2 under investigation (similar symptoms but unconfirmed)
empath75 7y ago
I think pretty much anyone that’s not living in an isolated part of the us should assume that it’s spreading near where you are. The only reason we haven’t found cases in the us is that we haven’t been testing. There’s probably 100 people for every person that they’ve tested positive at this point, maybe more.
- brewdad 7y ago
  I think this is 100% true for the west coast. We know this virus has been in the wild for at least two weeks, likely more. It's more likely than not that most large cities nationwide have been exposed at this point.
burgerzzz 7y ago
Live in the Portland area and am coming down with a bad cold that started this morning and is getting progressively worse. I know I’m in a state of paranoia, from checking the news too often, but I can’t help but to have fears of the worst.
- microcolonel 7y ago
  It's good to pay attention. Be alert, but do not panic. Don't fall into the trap of thinking "it couldn't happen to me". It can happen to you, so pay attention, and figure out what your best course of action is while you are able.
- _bxg1 7y ago
  Do you have a thermometer? The cold usually doesn't cause a fever and the Coronavirus definitely does.
  - burgerzzz 7y ago
    Girlfriend is picking one up at the store right now. A little surprised how hard and fast this came on. Was at a launch party (unfortunately) four hours ago and just had the scratchy throat. Thanks for the concern!
    - hanklazard 7y ago
      Even if you get a fever, still more likely influenza than this coronavirus (though that can still be pretty terrible!). Drink lots of fluids and get plenty of rest. Call your doc tomorrow if you’re getting significantly worse. I hope you feel better.
      - asveikau 7y ago
        Additionally the flu virus going around this season is a particularly bad one.
        7y ago
erentz 7y ago
And two presumptive cases in Washington (Snohomish and King counties) just announced at an 8pm press briefing. One a high schooler with unknown origin. The other a person returning from Korea on Tuesday. https://www.oregonlive.com/health/2020/02/2-new-coronavirus-cases-in-washington-state.html https://www.oregonlive.com/health/2020/02/2-new-coronavirus-...
edoceo 7y ago
Some in WA too. If you're a hot news junkie Reddit has a dedicated sub https://www.reddit.com/r/coronavirus/ https://www.reddit.com/r/coronavirus/
- yskchu 7y ago
  There is actually at least three subs on reddit: r/Coronavirus and r/China_Flu initially, but both are kind of out of control with drama Then the same mods spun off r/covid19, which is heavily moderated to remove all the drama and focus on science only
- DoreenMichele 7y ago
  Can you link to a piece about WA? I'm in Washington. Edit: I found this: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/2-new-coronavirus-cases-confirmed-in-washington/ar-BB10xIwv?PC=EMMX20 https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/2-new-coronavirus-cases-co...
  - tjalfi 7y ago
    [0] is the Washington state Department of Public Health's page. [0] https://www.doh.wa.gov/Emergencies/Coronavirus https://www.doh.wa.gov/Emergencies/Coronavirus
    - DoreenMichele 7y ago
      Thank you.
  - Reelin 7y ago
    The recording of the press release is on YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kILL-maWoJw https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kILL-maWoJw).
  - Scipio_Afri 7y ago
    Someone above posted https://www.oregonlive.com/health/2020/02/2-new-coronavirus-cases-in-washington-state.html https://www.oregonlive.com/health/2020/02/2-new-coronavirus-...
nodesocket 7y ago
So far it seems to be isolated to the west coast. Unfortunately I don't expect it to stay there. At some point (if not already happened), somebody will get on a plane headed to the midwest, south, or east coast and spread it.
- UncleOxidant 7y ago
  In this case the person was showing symptoms back on the 19th - 9 days ago. They could have been exposed up to 2 weeks before that. No way this is isolated to the West Coast now.
yodsanklai 7y ago
I really don't get why people get so worried about this. Especially on a science oriented forum like HN. At this moment, even if we assume that there are 100 times more unreported cases than reported cases, the odds are so low that there is simply no reason to be worried, even if attending an international conference. It's true that people do get sick, and die, and it can happen to anyone. But people also get into all types of unlikely accidents, and we don't let this affect our daily life. Besides, symptoms are mild for most people. We're not talking about Ebola here. I'm blaming the media. They make a "good" job at reporting each new individual case, making you feel that "this could be you" but IMHO this is noise. What I want to know is, how are countries prepared, what steps will be followed if this gets out of control, what is currently the probability of catching the virus, what do we know about the virus, how could the situation evolve in one week, one month and so on.... There are effective ways to mitigate the virus propagation other than canceling all events and stopping our economy, with all the adverse consequences we can imagine. For instance, starting by following the recommendations from health organisations. Such as stay home when showing symptoms, washing hands and so on. This is not followed by most people in Europe (and I suspect the US too). I see people coughing all the time in public transportation (compared with Asia where people wear masks). EDIT: I'm not saying that we shouldn't be concerned or prepared, but I wouldn't go beyond the recommendations from the CDC, and I think that catching the virus now is extremely unlikely.
- echelon 7y ago
  > I really don't get why people get so worried about this. Especially on a science oriented forum like HN. Because of the death rate. We're basing what we know on China, but can we really trust their numbers? We'll soon have more reliable figures from Japan, Korea, and Italy. Iran has reported a death rate of up to 17%. Healthy people are dying too. Young people. And if the medical system gets overwhelmed, those that develop pneumonia will be fucked. (I'll chase down citations and edit my post to include them.)
  - tobias2014 7y ago
    But what about selection bias? The mortality rate is an upper limit at the moment. Is it just wishful thinking that maybe in reality 100 times more people are infected but show no to very little symptoms? The number of people that can be tested is very limited, so only the cases are tested which are above a certain threshold in severity.
runawaybottle 7y ago
Does anyone know what the official criteria is for Pandemic classification?
- protomyth 7y ago
  Read the Risk Assessment part https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/summary.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/summary.html
deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
unityByFreedom 7y ago
Wash your hands often, don't touch your face, and carry alcohol sanitizer. Maintain your mental health as well. Remember you have far less chance of catching this than the common flu, and most people will recover from both.
- adrianN 7y ago
  You have a much lower chance of catching in right now. Wait a few weeks and that might change.
  - unityByFreedom 7y ago
    Most likely you'll be aware of any increased risk, from reports like this, before you come near it. Control the things you can, wash your hands and keep a healthy mental state.
    - adrianN 7y ago
      I'm a lot more worried about the economic effects of the pandemic than about the actual disease as I'm young and healthy. But I think now is the time to buy a big sack of rice and beans, just in case.
      - unityByFreedom 7y ago
        If your portfolio is diversified, e.g. via an index following the S&P 500, I don't see a reason to worry. Trying to time the whole market with short-term bets is a gamble, not a long-term strategy.
        TheAdamAndChe 7y ago
        The stock market is not the economy. Many businesses and schools will be closed down. That massively impacts people who often don't even have a few hundred dollars on hand for an emergency.
finaliteration 7y ago
I live in the Portland area and I’m doing my very best to not panic. My family has stocked up on a couple weeks worth of food and medicine gradually over the last few weeks and we have an “earthquake kit” that we already had in place. I feel like we’re relatively prepared for a quarantine situation if it comes down to it. The main reason I’m anxious, however, is that I have asthma and one of my biggest fears is suffocating to death. I remember going to the ER as a kid and blacking out because I basically stopped breathing. I still have nightmares about it. This is not a great time for someone with anxiety. If you’re like me, please remember to take deep breaths, get enough sleep, and remember that in the vast majority of cases things will be okay. But also please, please, please wash your hands.
- otachack 7y ago
  Wash your hands for 20 seconds*!
  - Aachen 7y ago
    I read that somewhere (couple weeks before the first reports from Wuhan actually, a toilet in our office building in Germany had it on a poster) but I don't know why this works. Why isn't it sufficient to rub over every part (between fingers, back of your hand, etc.)? Soap isn't anti-viral, what does longer exposure do? Am I supposed to just rub over every part of my hand N times until 20-30s have passed or does it just need to sit there for the time?
    - thinkingemote 7y ago
      Soap is mechanical. So you need to rub every part of surface it's not about time.
      - TheAdamAndChe 7y ago
        The soap also takes time to work. Soap binds to or encapsulates nonpolar molecules in a polar envelope, allowing nonpolar things to be washed away by water. That encapsulation takes a little bit of time.
Taniwha 7y ago
I have a feeling that at this point more people have put more time into planning for zombie virus attacks than real actual virus attacks ... it may be we have to study zombie attack plans to figure out what to do next ..... In related news, apparently I don't have enough shotguns
chvid 7y ago
How does testing and quarantine work for people in the US who are not insured? I am seeing stories around the web of people having to pay 2-3.000 USD for a test and also facing major bills for hospital quarantine?
- totalZero 7y ago
  If you make a working-class wage in the USA and you don't have health insurance, it's pretty unlikely you'll check in to a hospital for any reason that doesn't scare the hell out of you. In addition to being expensive, medical costs in the USA vary wildly between different hospitals, cannot be predicted based on symptoms alone, and are essentially not discoverable during an emergency. Even if you have insurance, some parts of the medical attention you receive will be covered but others may not. For example, you may have a procedure that is covered by your insurance company, but the diagnostics needed to address an urgent complication of that procedure may not be covered. More specifically to the present viral outbreak...imagine paying $3k for a test just to find out that the result is negative. That happened to this guy in Florida: https://www.miamiherald.com/news/health-care/article240476806.html https://www.miamiherald.com/news/health-care/article24047680...
  - chvid 7y ago
    Given that. I don't understand how the US can fight a viral epidemic. You have the best medical services in the world; but if a significant part of the population is not going to use that because of the threat of financial ruin, then you are never going to get on top of an epidemic.
    - NicoJuicy 7y ago
      The best medical service is also an affordable one. That aside, I see a lot of health operation shopping to Leuven ( Belgium), but I have never met someone doing a surgery at the US because "they are the best", so I don't agree with your standpoint.
    - thephyber 7y ago
      We don’t have the best medical in the world. That’s just marketing. A doctor in the US can prescribe an expensive medication or a generic, but they are completely unable to inform you of the price difference. And their employer is contractually prevented from posting the prices that an insured patient would pay. American patients probably suffer as much from dealing with errors in hospital bills, debt collections, insurance companies denying claims, etc as they do from disease. And our health care system is entirely fee-for-service rather than optimized for outcomes. Doctors may be idealistic, but I don’t see how they can do more good than harm in our current parasitic industry.

167 points by rediguanayum 7y ago

At this point I wonder why won't the government mail everyone a N95 mask to slow down the spread. I mean IRS knows everyone address with the price of each mask of 65 cents it would be few million buck at the most. But would raise awareness across the US.

pfdietz 7y ago
Because they don't have 370 million N95 masks.
- joering2 7y ago
  Most suppliers will prioritize government over civilians and I know this because I was purchasing 700 masks for my company. Besides, government can setup its own factory. I know enough how these masks are assembled to tell you its not a rocket science.
  - s1artibartfast 7y ago
    How long would it take to set up the factory and the are the source materials available?
- adrianN 7y ago
  I wonder how long it would take to make them if we wanted to.
  - _delirium 7y ago
    China produces 200,000 N95 respirators per day [1]. So it would take China about 5 years to produce the asked-for 370 million N95 respirators. I can't find numbers for the US, but most people seem to assume that production is lower than in China. Whether that could be quickly ramped up, I also don't know. [1] https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3050717/coronavirus-chinas-surgical-mask-shortage-ripples-through https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3050717/c...
    - deleted 7y ago
      [deleted]
- belltaco 7y ago
  They actually do. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/to-your-health/wp/2018/04/24/inside-the-secret-u-s-stockpile-meant-to-save-us-all-in-a-bioterror-attack/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/to-your-health/wp/2018/0...
  - pfdietz 7y ago
    The US Strategic National Stockpile currently has 12 million N95 masks and 30 M surgical masks.
jedberg 7y ago
Because n95 masks don’t really help unless you use them perfectly and most people wouldn’t even wear it anyway. What the government should be doing is drastically increase testing. Test anyone whose been to any country with a current case. And anyone they’ve been in contact with. And anyone whose been in an international airport in the last two weeks. And then pay for all those tests.
- joering2 7y ago
  How can testing help when people don't have symptoms for 5 days during this time they can pass it on to many other people. Unless you want somehow to test all 300 mil people overnight? Masks will really help because this virus mostly is spread thru touch of soiled surface. And people tend to touch everything and then touch their face, nose, lips etc. Mask will limit that.
  - jedberg 7y ago
    Like I said you test all the people most likely to have come in contact. And that’s exactly why masks don’t work. People touch the outside of the mask to remove it and then their eyes or nose or they eat. People don’t understand you have to wash your hands after removing the mask.
    - joering2 7y ago
      I hear you. Too bad a mask cannot possible come with a manual. /s
      - jedberg 7y ago
        How many people read manuals? Especially for something simple like a mask? They assume they know how to use it properly.
- Johnny555 7y ago
  There's already community spread, it's too late to test only people who visited infected countries. Testing everyone, including asymptomatic people is not feasible, there aren't nearly enough testing supplies (right now, California has 200 test kits for the entire state). And even if they had the supplies, finding the staff to do the tests is nearly impossible.
kebman 7y ago
Masks primarily protect others from you, if you are sick. They generally do not protect against others having the disease. If there are aerosols with the virus nearby, a mask won't help you, because your eyes are still exposed. I agree that testing is the way to go, but there are only so many tests you can do (physically, depending on supplies), so you really have to prioritize those who have actual symptoms.
- adrianN 7y ago
  If everybody wore a mask transmission risk would be lower, because the sick people would also wear a mask.
- wolco 7y ago
  I've heard this repeated many times over the last few weeks. Never heard the aerosol angle. On the surface it makes sense that masks wouldn't help. The more I think about it I come to a different conclusion. Masks do cut down water vapor being absorbed through the nose/mouth. It's not 100% but this isn't anthrax where a tiny droplet could kill everyone. Many people would use it improperly but simple public service announment instruction could solve that issue. Instead they use valuable public serivce announment time to tell everyone not to use a mask. I believe they do this to get people to not buy masks because they are afraid of supply issues. If we had a huge supply of masks people would be encouraged because it would cut down on spreading.
  - frivoal 7y ago
    Some countries do have a huge mask supply: in Japan for instance, wearing a mask if you have a cold / in the cold season / in the pollen allergy season / … is very normal, and almost everybody has a box or two of masks laying around the house. If masks are even remotely useful, telling people not to were the masks they already own (because you touch your face or something) is also pretty nasty.
Johnny555 7y ago
Aside from the problems with training 300M people to use a mask (and guaranteed, most people won't wear them properly - a properly fitting mask is uncomfortable), it's not just "1" mask, it's at least one mask a day. So to cover the USA for 10 days, that's 3 billion masks. There aren't that many masks available.
- 9nGQluzmnq3M 7y ago
  It's even worse than that: regular surgical masks are only effective for 4 hours or so.
  - Johnny555 7y ago
    I was assuming an N95 respirator and some sources say they can be used for a workday as long as they haven't become contaminated from direct exposure to bodily fluids -- there's no point in equipping the country with surgical masks since they won't offer any significant protection from the virus anyway.
- endogui 7y ago
  In shortage situations, one mask reused properly is better than no mask. I work at a medical center in Korea and we are under the following instructions: 1. Place masks for reuse in a specific place to avoid cross contamination. 2. Treat the outside of the mask as contaminated. Don't touch. 3. Wash hands after wearing a reused mask. 4. Throw out masks if they get wet, damaged, or (N95 only) folded.

hn_throwaway_99 7y ago

With now 3 cases of unknown origin, it's pretty obvious that widespread community transmission is inevitable - because it's already happening. SXSW is scheduled to start in Austin in 2 weeks. There will be tens of thousands of people flying into Austin, many of whom will be coming from places where coronavirus is circulating in the community. They will hang out with tens of thousands of other people from around the world, often in packed-to-the-gills music venues where they are at various levels of intoxication. They will all fly home to their places of origin a week later.

avocado4 7y ago
I'm expecting a cancellation announcement for SXSW in the next days.
- teruakohatu 7y ago
  I really hope they do. In reality they will probably only cancel if they can get insurance to pay out. Does anyone know if event insurance pays out for "not a pandemic but actually it is"? My hunch would be they don't.
abootstrapper 7y ago
I haven't been in ages, but the "SXSW Crud" used to be a common concept. Too much booze, lack of sleep, lots of handshaking, + cold and flu. It knocked me out hard 2 years in a row. After that I started getting the flu shot yearly and avoiding physical touching at events. Hosting SXSW during this inevitable pandemic is a terrible terrible idea.
- mike_d 7y ago
  We generically refer to this in the security community as "ConFlu," because it happens at every conference.
  - Izkata 7y ago
    At fan conventions (gaming, anime, etc), "Con Crud".

marklacey 7y ago

[removed due to state change]

melling 7y ago
The Washington Post says it has been confirmed: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/02/28/coronavirus-live-updates/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/02/28/coronavirus-...
anonsivalley652 7y ago
No, it's confirmed. https://www.oregon.gov/oha/PH/DISEASESCONDITIONS/DISEASESAZ/Pages/emerging-respiratory-infections.aspx https://www.oregon.gov/oha/PH/DISEASESCONDITIONS/DISEASESAZ/...

mperham 7y ago

My son attends that school. We literally got the call while hosting an evening party for him and several friends. Gonna be a rough week.

marklacey 7y ago
Sorry to hear that and hope it’s not too stressful!
jacquesm 7y ago
Oh that sucks. I'm so sorry to hear that. Every day I drop one of my children off at school and I feel like I'm playing a very macabre form of lottery. But it's illegal here to keep your children out of school and of course there will have to be some disaster first before they will close the schools.
- cjbprime 7y ago
  For what it's worth, I was surprised to see not just that there's age skew in mortality (no children have died) but also age skew in diagnosed infection (far fewer children are reporting symptoms than you'd expect). Of course, we can still worry about children infecting high-risk groups, etc.
  - maxden 7y ago
    but how would you know if you have covid-19 if you have symptoms of a common cold and you haven't been exposed to the reported high risk items. Although as it gets more widespread it could come from anywhere. Will we get to a point where if we have cold like symptoms we are expected to consider the virus and act accordingly?
    - allannienhuis 7y ago
      Well, isn't that the case today with the flu? We always think 'it's just a cold, I'll tough it out', but we could be (and often are) fighting the first symptoms of influenza. Shouldn't we treat it as such, to avoid spreading it to the most at-risk? Influenza is basically as deadly as this new virus, and a much more present danger. But we don't treat it with anywhere near the same degree of caution. Why is that?

anonsivalley652 7y ago

And, at the present time: 76 under monitoring (people who may have been exposed) 2 under investigation (similar symptoms but unconfirmed)

empath75 7y ago

I think pretty much anyone that’s not living in an isolated part of the us should assume that it’s spreading near where you are. The only reason we haven’t found cases in the us is that we haven’t been testing. There’s probably 100 people for every person that they’ve tested positive at this point, maybe more.

brewdad 7y ago
I think this is 100% true for the west coast. We know this virus has been in the wild for at least two weeks, likely more. It's more likely than not that most large cities nationwide have been exposed at this point.

burgerzzz 7y ago

Live in the Portland area and am coming down with a bad cold that started this morning and is getting progressively worse. I know I’m in a state of paranoia, from checking the news too often, but I can’t help but to have fears of the worst.

microcolonel 7y ago
It's good to pay attention. Be alert, but do not panic. Don't fall into the trap of thinking "it couldn't happen to me". It can happen to you, so pay attention, and figure out what your best course of action is while you are able.
_bxg1 7y ago
Do you have a thermometer? The cold usually doesn't cause a fever and the Coronavirus definitely does.
- burgerzzz 7y ago
  Girlfriend is picking one up at the store right now. A little surprised how hard and fast this came on. Was at a launch party (unfortunately) four hours ago and just had the scratchy throat. Thanks for the concern!
  - hanklazard 7y ago
    Even if you get a fever, still more likely influenza than this coronavirus (though that can still be pretty terrible!). Drink lots of fluids and get plenty of rest. Call your doc tomorrow if you’re getting significantly worse. I hope you feel better.
    - asveikau 7y ago
      Additionally the flu virus going around this season is a particularly bad one.
      - 7y ago

erentz 7y ago

And two presumptive cases in Washington (Snohomish and King counties) just announced at an 8pm press briefing. One a high schooler with unknown origin. The other a person returning from Korea on Tuesday. https://www.oregonlive.com/health/2020/02/2-new-coronavirus-cases-in-washington-state.html https://www.oregonlive.com/health/2020/02/2-new-coronavirus-...

edoceo 7y ago

Some in WA too. If you're a hot news junkie Reddit has a dedicated sub https://www.reddit.com/r/coronavirus/ https://www.reddit.com/r/coronavirus/

yskchu 7y ago
There is actually at least three subs on reddit: r/Coronavirus and r/China_Flu initially, but both are kind of out of control with drama Then the same mods spun off r/covid19, which is heavily moderated to remove all the drama and focus on science only
DoreenMichele 7y ago
Can you link to a piece about WA? I'm in Washington. Edit: I found this: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/2-new-coronavirus-cases-confirmed-in-washington/ar-BB10xIwv?PC=EMMX20 https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/2-new-coronavirus-cases-co...
- tjalfi 7y ago
  [0] is the Washington state Department of Public Health's page. [0] https://www.doh.wa.gov/Emergencies/Coronavirus https://www.doh.wa.gov/Emergencies/Coronavirus
  - DoreenMichele 7y ago
    Thank you.
- Reelin 7y ago
  The recording of the press release is on YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kILL-maWoJw https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kILL-maWoJw).
- Scipio_Afri 7y ago
  Someone above posted https://www.oregonlive.com/health/2020/02/2-new-coronavirus-cases-in-washington-state.html https://www.oregonlive.com/health/2020/02/2-new-coronavirus-...

nodesocket 7y ago

So far it seems to be isolated to the west coast. Unfortunately I don't expect it to stay there. At some point (if not already happened), somebody will get on a plane headed to the midwest, south, or east coast and spread it.

UncleOxidant 7y ago
In this case the person was showing symptoms back on the 19th - 9 days ago. They could have been exposed up to 2 weeks before that. No way this is isolated to the West Coast now.

yodsanklai 7y ago

I really don't get why people get so worried about this. Especially on a science oriented forum like HN. At this moment, even if we assume that there are 100 times more unreported cases than reported cases, the odds are so low that there is simply no reason to be worried, even if attending an international conference. It's true that people do get sick, and die, and it can happen to anyone. But people also get into all types of unlikely accidents, and we don't let this affect our daily life. Besides, symptoms are mild for most people. We're not talking about Ebola here. I'm blaming the media. They make a "good" job at reporting each new individual case, making you feel that "this could be you" but IMHO this is noise. What I want to know is, how are countries prepared, what steps will be followed if this gets out of control, what is currently the probability of catching the virus, what do we know about the virus, how could the situation evolve in one week, one month and so on.... There are effective ways to mitigate the virus propagation other than canceling all events and stopping our economy, with all the adverse consequences we can imagine. For instance, starting by following the recommendations from health organisations. Such as stay home when showing symptoms, washing hands and so on. This is not followed by most people in Europe (and I suspect the US too). I see people coughing all the time in public transportation (compared with Asia where people wear masks). EDIT: I'm not saying that we shouldn't be concerned or prepared, but I wouldn't go beyond the recommendations from the CDC, and I think that catching the virus now is extremely unlikely.

echelon 7y ago
> I really don't get why people get so worried about this. Especially on a science oriented forum like HN. Because of the death rate. We're basing what we know on China, but can we really trust their numbers? We'll soon have more reliable figures from Japan, Korea, and Italy. Iran has reported a death rate of up to 17%. Healthy people are dying too. Young people. And if the medical system gets overwhelmed, those that develop pneumonia will be fucked. (I'll chase down citations and edit my post to include them.)
- tobias2014 7y ago
  But what about selection bias? The mortality rate is an upper limit at the moment. Is it just wishful thinking that maybe in reality 100 times more people are infected but show no to very little symptoms? The number of people that can be tested is very limited, so only the cases are tested which are above a certain threshold in severity.

runawaybottle 7y ago

Does anyone know what the official criteria is for Pandemic classification?

protomyth 7y ago
Read the Risk Assessment part https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/summary.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/summary.html

deleted 7y ago

[deleted]

unityByFreedom 7y ago

Wash your hands often, don't touch your face, and carry alcohol sanitizer. Maintain your mental health as well. Remember you have far less chance of catching this than the common flu, and most people will recover from both.

adrianN 7y ago
You have a much lower chance of catching in right now. Wait a few weeks and that might change.
- unityByFreedom 7y ago
  Most likely you'll be aware of any increased risk, from reports like this, before you come near it. Control the things you can, wash your hands and keep a healthy mental state.
  - adrianN 7y ago
    I'm a lot more worried about the economic effects of the pandemic than about the actual disease as I'm young and healthy. But I think now is the time to buy a big sack of rice and beans, just in case.
    - unityByFreedom 7y ago
      If your portfolio is diversified, e.g. via an index following the S&P 500, I don't see a reason to worry. Trying to time the whole market with short-term bets is a gamble, not a long-term strategy.
      - TheAdamAndChe 7y ago
        The stock market is not the economy. Many businesses and schools will be closed down. That massively impacts people who often don't even have a few hundred dollars on hand for an emergency.

finaliteration 7y ago

I live in the Portland area and I’m doing my very best to not panic. My family has stocked up on a couple weeks worth of food and medicine gradually over the last few weeks and we have an “earthquake kit” that we already had in place. I feel like we’re relatively prepared for a quarantine situation if it comes down to it. The main reason I’m anxious, however, is that I have asthma and one of my biggest fears is suffocating to death. I remember going to the ER as a kid and blacking out because I basically stopped breathing. I still have nightmares about it. This is not a great time for someone with anxiety. If you’re like me, please remember to take deep breaths, get enough sleep, and remember that in the vast majority of cases things will be okay. But also please, please, please wash your hands.

otachack 7y ago
Wash your hands for 20 seconds*!
- Aachen 7y ago
  I read that somewhere (couple weeks before the first reports from Wuhan actually, a toilet in our office building in Germany had it on a poster) but I don't know why this works. Why isn't it sufficient to rub over every part (between fingers, back of your hand, etc.)? Soap isn't anti-viral, what does longer exposure do? Am I supposed to just rub over every part of my hand N times until 20-30s have passed or does it just need to sit there for the time?
  - thinkingemote 7y ago
    Soap is mechanical. So you need to rub every part of surface it's not about time.
    - TheAdamAndChe 7y ago
      The soap also takes time to work. Soap binds to or encapsulates nonpolar molecules in a polar envelope, allowing nonpolar things to be washed away by water. That encapsulation takes a little bit of time.

Taniwha 7y ago

I have a feeling that at this point more people have put more time into planning for zombie virus attacks than real actual virus attacks ... it may be we have to study zombie attack plans to figure out what to do next ..... In related news, apparently I don't have enough shotguns

chvid 7y ago

How does testing and quarantine work for people in the US who are not insured? I am seeing stories around the web of people having to pay 2-3.000 USD for a test and also facing major bills for hospital quarantine?

totalZero 7y ago
If you make a working-class wage in the USA and you don't have health insurance, it's pretty unlikely you'll check in to a hospital for any reason that doesn't scare the hell out of you. In addition to being expensive, medical costs in the USA vary wildly between different hospitals, cannot be predicted based on symptoms alone, and are essentially not discoverable during an emergency. Even if you have insurance, some parts of the medical attention you receive will be covered but others may not. For example, you may have a procedure that is covered by your insurance company, but the diagnostics needed to address an urgent complication of that procedure may not be covered. More specifically to the present viral outbreak...imagine paying $3k for a test just to find out that the result is negative. That happened to this guy in Florida: https://www.miamiherald.com/news/health-care/article240476806.html https://www.miamiherald.com/news/health-care/article24047680...
- chvid 7y ago
  Given that. I don't understand how the US can fight a viral epidemic. You have the best medical services in the world; but if a significant part of the population is not going to use that because of the threat of financial ruin, then you are never going to get on top of an epidemic.
  - NicoJuicy 7y ago
    The best medical service is also an affordable one. That aside, I see a lot of health operation shopping to Leuven ( Belgium), but I have never met someone doing a surgery at the US because "they are the best", so I don't agree with your standpoint.
  - thephyber 7y ago
    We don’t have the best medical in the world. That’s just marketing. A doctor in the US can prescribe an expensive medication or a generic, but they are completely unable to inform you of the price difference. And their employer is contractually prevented from posting the prices that an insured patient would pay. American patients probably suffer as much from dealing with errors in hospital bills, debt collections, insurance companies denying claims, etc as they do from disease. And our health care system is entirely fee-for-service rather than optimized for outcomes. Doctors may be idealistic, but I don’t see how they can do more good than harm in our current parasitic industry.