5 ms·

How much can we trust the data coming out of China?

by dannyw 7y ago

mothsonasloth 7y ago
We can't but it doesn't matter anymore, the data from South Korea, Italy and Japan will be the most interesting for the next week or so. Then I would imagine each country will be gathering a lot more data as it spreads further in another generation.
- distantaidenn 7y ago
  I wouldn't put too much faith in the data coming out of Japan at the moment. People are being told to only report to doctors if they are showing serious symptoms associated with the illness. Japan has a "gaman" (perseverance) culture, so I'm worried a lot of cases are gonna be people sitting at home trying to power through what they think is just the run of the mill flu.
- munkiefish 7y ago
  Indonesia on the other hand seems to have decided not to tell the world or their people how many cases there have been - when clearly they must have some by now.
lucian1900 7y ago
How much can we trust the data coming from the American CDC? Why exactly would you distrust China, besides racism?
- mattmoose21 7y ago
  lol
- Terretta 7y ago
  The governing construct has nothing to do with race. A government that detains initial sources of ‘rumors’ of untreatable pneumonia should be trusted about as, say, a social network company governance that deletes non-proganda-aligned informational posts about spread of that pneumonia, or an election year government that reduced infectious disease control budgets and says nothing to see here move along. Nothing to do with race.
- fullstop 7y ago
  > Why exactly would you distrust China, besides racism? Because, historically, they have not been trustworthy with this sort of thing? Not trusting the Chinese government is way different than not trusting a Chinese person.
- netsharc 7y ago
  Not OP, but: https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/02/coronavirus-and-blindness-authoritarianism/606922/ https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/02/coron... I personally have trust that at least in the US, a whistleblower would speak out to media if the official announcement doesn't agree with the records s/he can see. Maybe this is also blind faith that the system still works in the US. Who knows if Trump has installed loyalists that deep, who will only report good news: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/feb/26/johnny-mcentee-trump-purge-civil-service-deep-state https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/feb/26/johnny-mcent...
  - iknowalot 7y ago
    US government has been lying to its population for centuries. For example, all of the bioweapons testing on the domestic US population was done without consent and no whistleblower came forth until the programs were declassified. On the world stage, the US may lie more than China, review our last dozen or so manufactured narratives to engage in regime change...mostly propaganda. We don't seem to use the same ruler to measure the honesty of both countries. Historically speaking, a lot more people end up dead when the US lies. See Iraq, Iran, Yemen, Vietnam, Syria, Korea, a lot of South/Central American countries, etc....
- vonquant 7y ago
  Oh let me see, perhaps it has something to do with China being a one-party state with a ripe history of human rights atrocities and pervasive censorship. Just look at SARS for an example of where trusting the official information from China made for a terrible idea.
  - lucian1900 7y ago
    And the US isn't a two party state with a ripe history (and present) of human rights atrocities and pervasive censorship? Your view of China is almost entirely defined by US media, owned by capitalists. Perhaps consider they have an incentive to lie.
    - marcosdumay 7y ago
      There is a discontinuity there. A two party system is many orders of magnitude more reliable than a single party system, even if not ideal. The US also has a much smaller history of hiding facts and persecuting the Press.
      - lucian1900 7y ago
        The two US parties are almost completely identical in behaviour. They have both continued brutal imperialism. They have both demonised countries that opposed said imperialism and persecuted the few in the US (press or otherwise) that were also opposed. There is also no democratic control of the people over the US press, it's privately owned by only a few. The press has an extremely long history of hiding and fabricating facts, particularly against anti-capitalists. More importantly, there is no democratic control over production and distribution. It is almost all privately owned. The US's history of brutality and manipulation is unmatched.
- hutzlibu 7y ago
  Maybe because the virus was downplayed from the beginning and the doctors who discovered it, were punished and told to be quiet instead of getting support? Now sure, the chinese government changed their tactic, but it would take a while for me, to trust them on anything.
mytailorisrich 7y ago
They might be 'massaging' the numbers, or maybe they aren't, but considering the importance of the issue for China and the world, and how many eyes are watching, their interest is still to report factual trends and overall situation. At this point they cannot afford to claim that everything is fine if it isn't. I'm more worried about Iran than China.
- microcolonel 7y ago
  > their interest is still to report factual trends and overall situation Unfortunately it isn't. They are trying to put people back to work and reopen trade because of the damage it is doing to their economy, and massaging the numbers is one crucial element of making that happen.
  - mytailorisrich 7y ago
    This is FUD. They are not in a vacuum. Business and travel will resume only if the situation is demonstrably resolved, or close to. They cannot afford to fake it and re-open factories and lift quarantines just for mass contamination to occur, which would be very public and screw them internationally for good. Edit: Everyone, from all impacted countries say that they are still open for business because they don't want everything to stop and people to be spooked. The country is not all under quarantine. That has nothing to do with faking numbers.
    - microcolonel 7y ago
      Dude, they are literally releasing videos from officials telling some businesspeople that they're still open for business. Don't shoot the messenger, I know it's a dumb idea, but how surprised can you be that the CCP is trying to do something dumb after all the dumb things they've done? Maybe instead of declaring something "FUD", which to me sounds like you're saying I'm here in bad faith, consider that I meant what I said.
      - qzx_pierri 7y ago
samvher 7y ago
Not a direct answer to your question but related: https://www.vox.com/2020/1/27/21082354/coronavirus-outbreak-wuhan-china-early-on-lancet https://www.vox.com/2020/1/27/21082354/coronavirus-outbreak-... TL;DR: The beginning was not great, but it seems better now.
ggreer 7y ago
Let's look at China's flu death stats to get an idea of how honest the government tends to be. From a 2018 article in a CCP-owned newspaper[1]: > The total number of flu deaths last year was 144, compared with 56 in 2016 and 41 in 2017. A recent article in The Global Times (a tabloid owned by the CCP's official newspaper) gives similar figures.[2] So China lies about flu deaths by 2-3 orders of magnitude. Who knows how much they're juking the stats on covid-19 deaths. 1. https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/201902/22/WS5c6f11daa3106c65c34eaaf7.html https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/201902/22/WS5c6f11daa3106c65... 2. https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1177725.shtml https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1177725.shtml
- oefrha 7y ago
  Can’t you see the word “reported” next to the stats? Most flu hospitalizations and deaths aren’t reported. I encourage you to read U.S. CDC’s explanations on how they estimate flu hospitalizations and deaths. Only a small percentage is ever reported even in the U.S. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/how-cdc-estimates.htm https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/how-cdc-estimates.htm
  - ggreer 7y ago
    In the same article about 144 reported flu deaths, they cite the comparable Hong Kong flu stats (226 dead) despite Hong Kong having 0.5% of the population of China. Nowhere in that article do they mention differences in methodologies of reported vs estimated. My point is that if the China CDC is counting covid-19 cases the way they count flu cases, that means the actual numbers are much worse. They underreport the number of flu cases by a factor of 50. eg: They claim 700,000 cases in 2018, which is less than 0.1% of the population. (In developed countries, around 5% of the population gets the flu each year.) Then they juke the stats to claim fewer flu deaths than there actually are (144 deaths instead of 150,000). I don't think the numbers for covid-19 are off by two orders of magnitude, but my point is that the China CDC loves to publish numbers that amount to outright lies.
    - oefrha 7y ago
      > Yes, my point is blah blah Yes, and that’s a ridiculous “point” however you interpret it.
chippy 7y ago
The line within China is that they made a big mistake with the figures initially, but those responsible (e.g. Wuhan officials) have been dealt with and everything is now more truthful.

How much can we trust the data coming out of China?

by dannyw 7y ago

How much can we trust the data coming out of China?

We can't but it doesn't matter anymore, the data from South Korea, Italy and Japan will be the most interesting for the next week or so. Then I would imagine each country will be gathering a lot more data as it spreads further in another generation.

distantaidenn 7y ago
I wouldn't put too much faith in the data coming out of Japan at the moment. People are being told to only report to doctors if they are showing serious symptoms associated with the illness. Japan has a "gaman" (perseverance) culture, so I'm worried a lot of cases are gonna be people sitting at home trying to power through what they think is just the run of the mill flu.
munkiefish 7y ago
Indonesia on the other hand seems to have decided not to tell the world or their people how many cases there have been - when clearly they must have some by now.

lucian1900 7y ago

How much can we trust the data coming from the American CDC? Why exactly would you distrust China, besides racism?

mattmoose21 7y ago
lol
Terretta 7y ago
The governing construct has nothing to do with race. A government that detains initial sources of ‘rumors’ of untreatable pneumonia should be trusted about as, say, a social network company governance that deletes non-proganda-aligned informational posts about spread of that pneumonia, or an election year government that reduced infectious disease control budgets and says nothing to see here move along. Nothing to do with race.
fullstop 7y ago
> Why exactly would you distrust China, besides racism? Because, historically, they have not been trustworthy with this sort of thing? Not trusting the Chinese government is way different than not trusting a Chinese person.
netsharc 7y ago
Not OP, but: https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/02/coronavirus-and-blindness-authoritarianism/606922/ https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/02/coron... I personally have trust that at least in the US, a whistleblower would speak out to media if the official announcement doesn't agree with the records s/he can see. Maybe this is also blind faith that the system still works in the US. Who knows if Trump has installed loyalists that deep, who will only report good news: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/feb/26/johnny-mcentee-trump-purge-civil-service-deep-state https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/feb/26/johnny-mcent...
- iknowalot 7y ago
  US government has been lying to its population for centuries. For example, all of the bioweapons testing on the domestic US population was done without consent and no whistleblower came forth until the programs were declassified. On the world stage, the US may lie more than China, review our last dozen or so manufactured narratives to engage in regime change...mostly propaganda. We don't seem to use the same ruler to measure the honesty of both countries. Historically speaking, a lot more people end up dead when the US lies. See Iraq, Iran, Yemen, Vietnam, Syria, Korea, a lot of South/Central American countries, etc....
vonquant 7y ago
Oh let me see, perhaps it has something to do with China being a one-party state with a ripe history of human rights atrocities and pervasive censorship. Just look at SARS for an example of where trusting the official information from China made for a terrible idea.
- lucian1900 7y ago
  And the US isn't a two party state with a ripe history (and present) of human rights atrocities and pervasive censorship? Your view of China is almost entirely defined by US media, owned by capitalists. Perhaps consider they have an incentive to lie.
  - marcosdumay 7y ago
    There is a discontinuity there. A two party system is many orders of magnitude more reliable than a single party system, even if not ideal. The US also has a much smaller history of hiding facts and persecuting the Press.
    - lucian1900 7y ago
      The two US parties are almost completely identical in behaviour. They have both continued brutal imperialism. They have both demonised countries that opposed said imperialism and persecuted the few in the US (press or otherwise) that were also opposed. There is also no democratic control of the people over the US press, it's privately owned by only a few. The press has an extremely long history of hiding and fabricating facts, particularly against anti-capitalists. More importantly, there is no democratic control over production and distribution. It is almost all privately owned. The US's history of brutality and manipulation is unmatched.
hutzlibu 7y ago
Maybe because the virus was downplayed from the beginning and the doctors who discovered it, were punished and told to be quiet instead of getting support? Now sure, the chinese government changed their tactic, but it would take a while for me, to trust them on anything.

mytailorisrich 7y ago

They might be 'massaging' the numbers, or maybe they aren't, but considering the importance of the issue for China and the world, and how many eyes are watching, their interest is still to report factual trends and overall situation. At this point they cannot afford to claim that everything is fine if it isn't. I'm more worried about Iran than China.

microcolonel 7y ago
> their interest is still to report factual trends and overall situation Unfortunately it isn't. They are trying to put people back to work and reopen trade because of the damage it is doing to their economy, and massaging the numbers is one crucial element of making that happen.
- mytailorisrich 7y ago
  This is FUD. They are not in a vacuum. Business and travel will resume only if the situation is demonstrably resolved, or close to. They cannot afford to fake it and re-open factories and lift quarantines just for mass contamination to occur, which would be very public and screw them internationally for good. Edit: Everyone, from all impacted countries say that they are still open for business because they don't want everything to stop and people to be spooked. The country is not all under quarantine. That has nothing to do with faking numbers.
  - microcolonel 7y ago
    Dude, they are literally releasing videos from officials telling some businesspeople that they're still open for business. Don't shoot the messenger, I know it's a dumb idea, but how surprised can you be that the CCP is trying to do something dumb after all the dumb things they've done? Maybe instead of declaring something "FUD", which to me sounds like you're saying I'm here in bad faith, consider that I meant what I said.
    - qzx_pierri 7y ago

samvher 7y ago

Not a direct answer to your question but related: https://www.vox.com/2020/1/27/21082354/coronavirus-outbreak-wuhan-china-early-on-lancet https://www.vox.com/2020/1/27/21082354/coronavirus-outbreak-... TL;DR: The beginning was not great, but it seems better now.

ggreer 7y ago

Let's look at China's flu death stats to get an idea of how honest the government tends to be. From a 2018 article in a CCP-owned newspaper[1]: > The total number of flu deaths last year was 144, compared with 56 in 2016 and 41 in 2017. A recent article in The Global Times (a tabloid owned by the CCP's official newspaper) gives similar figures.[2] So China lies about flu deaths by 2-3 orders of magnitude. Who knows how much they're juking the stats on covid-19 deaths. 1. https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/201902/22/WS5c6f11daa3106c65c34eaaf7.html https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/201902/22/WS5c6f11daa3106c65... 2. https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1177725.shtml https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1177725.shtml

oefrha 7y ago
Can’t you see the word “reported” next to the stats? Most flu hospitalizations and deaths aren’t reported. I encourage you to read U.S. CDC’s explanations on how they estimate flu hospitalizations and deaths. Only a small percentage is ever reported even in the U.S. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/how-cdc-estimates.htm https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/how-cdc-estimates.htm
- ggreer 7y ago
  In the same article about 144 reported flu deaths, they cite the comparable Hong Kong flu stats (226 dead) despite Hong Kong having 0.5% of the population of China. Nowhere in that article do they mention differences in methodologies of reported vs estimated. My point is that if the China CDC is counting covid-19 cases the way they count flu cases, that means the actual numbers are much worse. They underreport the number of flu cases by a factor of 50. eg: They claim 700,000 cases in 2018, which is less than 0.1% of the population. (In developed countries, around 5% of the population gets the flu each year.) Then they juke the stats to claim fewer flu deaths than there actually are (144 deaths instead of 150,000). I don't think the numbers for covid-19 are off by two orders of magnitude, but my point is that the China CDC loves to publish numbers that amount to outright lies.
  - oefrha 7y ago
    > Yes, my point is blah blah Yes, and that’s a ridiculous “point” however you interpret it.

chippy 7y ago

The line within China is that they made a big mistake with the figures initially, but those responsible (e.g. Wuhan officials) have been dealt with and everything is now more truthful.