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> I think when this all comes to an end, China will be one of the countries that dealt with the virus the best. Countries without authoritarian governments like

> I think when this all comes to an end, China will be one of the countries that dealt with the virus the best. Countries without authoritarian governments likely don't have the means to effectively quarantine major cities and shut down massive portions of their economy immediately without major problems arising. China's authoritarian government is largely responsible for the severity of the initial outbreak. Their extreme quarantine efforts happened more than a month and a half after the first case was detected, well after it was too late to effectively contain, and only when covering up the situation proved impossible. The government sponsored a 100,000 person banquet with shared plates 3 miles from the epicenter with people who travelled to get there/would travel back while it was arresting doctors and media reporters for talking about the virus. If major sectors in freer countries weren't shut down until weeks after it spreads, it would be an improvement over China. Here is a succinct summary of the timeline: https://youtu.be/hSIt496d82s?t=62 https://youtu.be/hSIt496d82s?t=62 Last time I checked they were still barring members of the CDC from going into China to help asses the situation. Crucial information such as mortality rate and recovery rate are only being discovered now, as the numbers from China are not accurate. This virus appears to be something any government would have difficulty containing due to the long incubation period, and some of the false statistics coming out of China are simply a result of a system that has become overwhelmed. Any system in a similar situation as the Chinese now find themselves in would have trouble dealing with this, and I think it may have reached currently levels even with a more transparent system that tried to contain it earlier, but I heavily disagree with your statement. They were extremely irresponsible about early containment during the crucial period when containment had the best chance of working.

oefrha 7y ago
> Last time I checked they were still barring members of the CDC from going into China to help asses the situation. I checked and the WHO team led by a Canadian epidemiologist has been working in China for more than two weeks, since Feb 10. I fail to see why they are obligated to allow in a team from a nation that’s been openly hostile for a long time just because they asked and used the word “help”. Sounds like arrogance to me.
- allovernow 7y ago
  This is not an event for petty emotions. Also in high likelihood those who are there on behalf of the CDC are keeping quiet in order not to be kicked out. But you bet there's espionage going on. The Chinese government doesn't mess around. And in this case it'd be justified. You're talking about the rest of the world at stake. This is no place for cover-ups and minimization. Transparency is critical.
  - oefrha 7y ago
    > This is not an event for petty emotions. If only “openly hostile” was limited to “petty emotions” that can be waved away.
    - ng12 7y ago
      Welcome to international politics. The US and Russia were in the UN together throughout the cold war -- cooperating on some issues while being at odds over others.
    - fastball 7y ago
      If only "openly hostile" was true. "open hostilities" generally means outright war or pretty close to it. Clearly something that has not been very close to happening.
  - Johnny555 7y ago
    If the outbreak started in the USA, would you expect the USA to welcome a team of Chinese Government epidemiologists?
    - grandmczeb 7y ago
      I expect they would be allowed. The US also allows international observers for its elections as well.
      - pbhjpbhj 7y ago
yibg 7y ago
China can be held responsible for the slow early response and attempt to cover things up as well as being praised for the decisive efforts at containment later on. I don’t want to let them off the hook for down playing this thing early on but I’m not sure how much more effective containment would’ve been if this happened in another dense country. Say Japan, India or somewhere in Europe.
- iCarrot 7y ago
  Or say the US. In 2009 pandemic, the influenza A H1N1 pdm-09 originated from Mexico, spread to the US, and then to the world.
  - Retric 7y ago
    By comparison pdm-09 would have killed somewhere between 8 and 60 people with ~78,064 infections not 2,715 and counting. Thus reasonably getting a vastly lower response.
hoseja 7y ago
Thank you, feels like 50-cent army found this thread or something, it's disturbing.
jariel 7y ago
"more than a month and a half after the first case was detected, " The 'first case' of what exactly though? Nobody knew it's effects, transmissibility, etc. etc.. I actually believe that even if said doctors were not sanctioned, not much would have really changed. I think the delay to the authoritarian clamp-down would have been roughly the same. In the West, we have responsible actors but they're neither entirely knowledgable (nobody is) neither do they have the widespread authority to do what China is able to do. But much worse are places like India, Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines ... these to me are the scary spots with high concentrations of people, crude medical practices, not a ton of gear, and no legit central authority to really turn the wheels on the disease. And since the cat is out of the bag ... it doesn't look good.
- rorykoehler 7y ago
  Not sure I’d lump Malaysia in with this lot but otherwise I agree. No cases on Indonesia? No chance
  - TravelN0mad 7y ago
    No confirmed cases, that is. The thing is, that Indonesia mostly doesn't have the means to detect the disease, or only in specialized labs. Also, if no "known" cases are present in a specific country, the awareness to check for specific symptoms is probably lower. That's also the curious thing about why usually the detection rate in a country rises fast in the beginning - when the first infected patient has been found, as by then doctors start to specifically test for the virus.
yread 7y ago
> Their extreme quarantine efforts happened more than a month and a half after the first case was detected I do agree that China and especially Wuhan could have acted faster - perhaps by 2 weeks though not month and a half. 1st December there was a case of pneumonia admitted to a hospital - that happens probably more than millions times a year. After 3 days it was clear that it's a viral pneumonia. That's more severe but still not uncommon. Only by the middle of the month it became clear to doctors that there are more and more such cases - but still spread through different hospitals of the 11 million Wuhan. Obviously it takes time for this information to get to the bureaucrats. They should have done something - but then again, what? There are perhaps ~50 cases of viral pneumonia in a city the size of small country during an influenza season. If China hasn't gone through SARS it would take months to act on this information.
- tremon 7y ago
  They should have done something - but then again, what? Well, arresting the doctors that were comparing cases in a group chat seems like a good start. /s
  - toyg 7y ago
    That's actually the critical difference. Incompetence and carelessness are normal - public administration and epidemiological control are difficult activities in any country - but active repression of medical personnel is not.
deleted 7y ago
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oefrha 7y ago

> Last time I checked they were still barring members of the CDC from going into China to help asses the situation. I checked and the WHO team led by a Canadian epidemiologist has been working in China for more than two weeks, since Feb 10. I fail to see why they are obligated to allow in a team from a nation that’s been openly hostile for a long time just because they asked and used the word “help”. Sounds like arrogance to me.

allovernow 7y ago
This is not an event for petty emotions. Also in high likelihood those who are there on behalf of the CDC are keeping quiet in order not to be kicked out. But you bet there's espionage going on. The Chinese government doesn't mess around. And in this case it'd be justified. You're talking about the rest of the world at stake. This is no place for cover-ups and minimization. Transparency is critical.
- oefrha 7y ago
  > This is not an event for petty emotions. If only “openly hostile” was limited to “petty emotions” that can be waved away.
  - ng12 7y ago
    Welcome to international politics. The US and Russia were in the UN together throughout the cold war -- cooperating on some issues while being at odds over others.
  - fastball 7y ago
    If only "openly hostile" was true. "open hostilities" generally means outright war or pretty close to it. Clearly something that has not been very close to happening.
- Johnny555 7y ago
  If the outbreak started in the USA, would you expect the USA to welcome a team of Chinese Government epidemiologists?
  - grandmczeb 7y ago
    I expect they would be allowed. The US also allows international observers for its elections as well.
    - pbhjpbhj 7y ago

yibg 7y ago

China can be held responsible for the slow early response and attempt to cover things up as well as being praised for the decisive efforts at containment later on. I don’t want to let them off the hook for down playing this thing early on but I’m not sure how much more effective containment would’ve been if this happened in another dense country. Say Japan, India or somewhere in Europe.

iCarrot 7y ago
Or say the US. In 2009 pandemic, the influenza A H1N1 pdm-09 originated from Mexico, spread to the US, and then to the world.
- Retric 7y ago
  By comparison pdm-09 would have killed somewhere between 8 and 60 people with ~78,064 infections not 2,715 and counting. Thus reasonably getting a vastly lower response.

hoseja 7y ago

Thank you, feels like 50-cent army found this thread or something, it's disturbing.

jariel 7y ago

"more than a month and a half after the first case was detected, " The 'first case' of what exactly though? Nobody knew it's effects, transmissibility, etc. etc.. I actually believe that even if said doctors were not sanctioned, not much would have really changed. I think the delay to the authoritarian clamp-down would have been roughly the same. In the West, we have responsible actors but they're neither entirely knowledgable (nobody is) neither do they have the widespread authority to do what China is able to do. But much worse are places like India, Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines ... these to me are the scary spots with high concentrations of people, crude medical practices, not a ton of gear, and no legit central authority to really turn the wheels on the disease. And since the cat is out of the bag ... it doesn't look good.

rorykoehler 7y ago
Not sure I’d lump Malaysia in with this lot but otherwise I agree. No cases on Indonesia? No chance
- TravelN0mad 7y ago
  No confirmed cases, that is. The thing is, that Indonesia mostly doesn't have the means to detect the disease, or only in specialized labs. Also, if no "known" cases are present in a specific country, the awareness to check for specific symptoms is probably lower. That's also the curious thing about why usually the detection rate in a country rises fast in the beginning - when the first infected patient has been found, as by then doctors start to specifically test for the virus.

yread 7y ago

> Their extreme quarantine efforts happened more than a month and a half after the first case was detected I do agree that China and especially Wuhan could have acted faster - perhaps by 2 weeks though not month and a half. 1st December there was a case of pneumonia admitted to a hospital - that happens probably more than millions times a year. After 3 days it was clear that it's a viral pneumonia. That's more severe but still not uncommon. Only by the middle of the month it became clear to doctors that there are more and more such cases - but still spread through different hospitals of the 11 million Wuhan. Obviously it takes time for this information to get to the bureaucrats. They should have done something - but then again, what? There are perhaps ~50 cases of viral pneumonia in a city the size of small country during an influenza season. If China hasn't gone through SARS it would take months to act on this information.

tremon 7y ago
They should have done something - but then again, what? Well, arresting the doctors that were comparing cases in a group chat seems like a good start. /s
- toyg 7y ago
  That's actually the critical difference. Incompetence and carelessness are normal - public administration and epidemiological control are difficult activities in any country - but active repression of medical personnel is not.

deleted 7y ago

[deleted]