5 ms·

It will be cancelled. Mathematic models made by epidemiologist experts from Harvard and prediction from John Hopkins guys are giving huge numbers between 40 a

by DrJaws 7y ago

It will be cancelled. Mathematic models made by epidemiologist experts from Harvard and prediction from John Hopkins guys are giving huge numbers between 40 and 70% world adult population will be infected in one year and numbers of deaths will be between 30 and 150 million if their predictions are correct and china didn't lie with the 2% death rate Read the threads from their twitters, the situation is much much worse than the media is telling constantly with the influenza comparison, and this guys are not nuts, they are top minds of epidemic control. A brief from their conversations and information would be: - It is absolutely impossible to stop covid and will be a pandemic - The death rate could hit 10% in some countries - Expect between 30 and 70% of the world to be infected - millions of deaths - Governments duty now is not to stop the disease as they can't, but try to slow it until we understand it better, have real numbers (chinese ones cannot to be trusted), and we develop a vaccine so the R0 can be <1 - Governments are likely going to adopt the hardest restrictions they can get away, expect quarantines on every country - Health services on third world countries will collapse, first world will have problems as we are not prepared - CDC is already saying the virus will be with us more than one season - hope we can avoid more deadly mutations https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1228373884027592704.html?refreshed=1582681665 https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1228373884027592704.html?... https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1231425805898657795.html https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1231425805898657795.html https://ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/research/ncov-making-sense-of-an-epidemic/ https://ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/research/ncov-making-sense-of-... https://twitter.com/T_Inglesby https://twitter.com/T_Inglesby https://twitter.com/DrEricDing https://twitter.com/DrEricDing https://twitter.com/mlipsitch https://twitter.com/mlipsitch

Alex3917 7y ago
> china didn't lie with the 2% death rate Keep in mind that 2% is just a guess, of people officially diagnosed the death rate is supposedly 4.8%: https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/f9134d/48_fatality_rate_50k_study/ https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/f9134d/48_fatality...
- DrJaws 7y ago
  We need to take into account also the asymptomatic people that will never report the disease
  - raducu 7y ago
    Just as the majority of people who catch the flu don't get tested for it, only the serious cases do. So we know covid19 spreads much easier than the flu and is orders of magnitude deadlier than the flu for those that get tested/confirmed compared to those that get tested/confirmed with the flu.
    - im3w1l 7y ago
      The flu has been around for so long that I would assume we have very reliable estimates of how common it is.
- puranjay 7y ago
  We also have to keep in mind that that 2% rate is in a fairly developed country with robust medical infrastructure and a decently young population. You can't expect the same death rate in a country with poor medical infrastructure (say, Afghanistan) or an old and vulnerable population (say, Japan) If this thing truly hits the predicted scale, even good medical infrastructure won't help if it is stretched too thin.
- timr 7y ago
  That is not true. Of people officially diagnosed in Wuhan, the death rate is the 2.3% being widely reported: http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/id/e53946e2-c6c4-41e9-9a9b-fea8db1a8f51 http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/id/e53946e2-c6c4-41e9-9...
  - Alex3917 7y ago
    The 2.3% figure comes from here: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762130?guestAccessKey=bdcca6fa-a48c-4028-8406-7f3d04a3e932&utm_source=For_The_Media&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=ftm_links&utm_content=tfl&utm_term=022420 https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762130?gu... Note that they are looking at people who were diagnosed up through Feb 11th. It normally takes people 3 - 4 weeks to die from the disease, and it hasn't even been 3 weeks from Feb 11th, so it seems like this figure is designed as a lower bound.
akiselev 7y ago
That's absolutely nonsensical paranoia. It's the equivalent of making $1000 month one of your startup, $2000 month two, and immediately claiming that by month 24 you will be making over $16 billion. Make no mistake, COVID-19 is likely to become an annual community disease. But it's not going to kill 30 million people until like 2120.
- DrJaws 7y ago
  I'm not an epidemiologist, and while I do not like to use argument from authority, I trust this guys because is their work, they do it in top institutions and they won't jeopardize their reputation for some fear-mongering tweets. They can be wrong, but they are not going to lie.
  - ImaCake 7y ago
    I know a guy who went to work as a post-doc at Harvard. He left behind experimental samples of human blood that were unlabelled, which I had to inform his former supervisor about. He also had a number of other professional failings. The takeaway is that just because someone has "Harvard" on their resume doesn't mean they are even remotely competent.
    - DrJaws 7y ago
      And I completely agree, that's why I said I don't like to use arguments of authority, but two of them are not educated in harvard, they are heads of departments and directors from harvard and john hopkins People educated in those fields with enough renown to claim those positions with a lot to lose for just writing that. And yes, while they can end being just wrong or spreading fearmongering information, they are the most trusted sources I found
  - Fomite 7y ago
    I am an epidemiologist, and Marc Lipsitch knows his business.
    - 7y ago
ImaCake 7y ago
A lot of the links you provide have alarmist titles and big claims and confusing evidence. Which is strange since the twitter authors are clearly well educated virologists/epidemiologists. But the style of language makes it difficult for me to trust what they are saying. So far I am sticking to research papers and This Week In Virology [0], where there is a lot less dramatic clickbait language and a lot more skeptical analysis of statistics. My conclusion so far is that no one knows how this will play out, but the fear seems to be more dangerous than the actual disease in many places. 0. http://www.microbe.tv/twiv/ http://www.microbe.tv/twiv/
- cylinder 7y ago
  do you use twitter much? these look like standard Twitter threads to me with standard Twitter writing style. threads from blue checkmark guys do tend towards sensational though.
- jmnicolas 7y ago
  > Which is strange since the twitter authors are clearly well educated virologists/epidemiologists. So when educated virologists/epidemiologists put alarming titles you find it strange, not concerning or alarming ?
  - bad_user 7y ago
    Internet is full of quacks. Alarming titles indicate quacks more than they indicate actual crisis and we don't have time to check the credentials and the work of the people involved to assess their credibility. Also facts speak for themselves, you don't need alarmism unless you have something to sell. Also in these instances a general panic can do much more harm than the virus can ever do — we already see fears of an economic recession. So yes, it's a huge red flag.
    - 34679 7y ago
      There are two morals to the story "The Boy Who Cried Wolf".
adrr 7y ago
Current antivirals work on it. Shown effective in animal models and now in human testing in China. A US based test, the patient made a recovery and showed significant improvement one day after dose. This is just antivirals that are already out there that being manufactured. There will be vaccines on the market in 6 to 9 months and antibody treatments shortly after.
- dillondoyle 7y ago
  Do you have research links? Or this is just internet enecdata? I have been contemplating calling in my Truvada script early and mailing a 30-60 pills to my parents but from my googling seems pointless. that Emtricitabine / Tenofovir most certainly wouldn't help? but I couldn't find much and have no idea
  - tonyztan 7y ago
    The drug being tested is remdesivir, not tenofovir. https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/24/investing/gilead-sciences-coronavirus-who-remdesivir/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/24/investing/gilead-sciences-cor... https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/06/health/coronavirus-treatments.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/06/health/coronavirus-treatm... https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001191 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001191
    - dillondoyle 7y ago
      thanks!!!

by DrJaws 7y ago

Alex3917 7y ago

> china didn't lie with the 2% death rate Keep in mind that 2% is just a guess, of people officially diagnosed the death rate is supposedly 4.8%: https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/f9134d/48_fatality_rate_50k_study/ https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/f9134d/48_fatality...

DrJaws 7y ago
We need to take into account also the asymptomatic people that will never report the disease
- raducu 7y ago
  Just as the majority of people who catch the flu don't get tested for it, only the serious cases do. So we know covid19 spreads much easier than the flu and is orders of magnitude deadlier than the flu for those that get tested/confirmed compared to those that get tested/confirmed with the flu.
  - im3w1l 7y ago
    The flu has been around for so long that I would assume we have very reliable estimates of how common it is.
puranjay 7y ago
We also have to keep in mind that that 2% rate is in a fairly developed country with robust medical infrastructure and a decently young population. You can't expect the same death rate in a country with poor medical infrastructure (say, Afghanistan) or an old and vulnerable population (say, Japan) If this thing truly hits the predicted scale, even good medical infrastructure won't help if it is stretched too thin.
timr 7y ago
That is not true. Of people officially diagnosed in Wuhan, the death rate is the 2.3% being widely reported: http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/id/e53946e2-c6c4-41e9-9a9b-fea8db1a8f51 http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/id/e53946e2-c6c4-41e9-9...
- Alex3917 7y ago
  The 2.3% figure comes from here: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762130?guestAccessKey=bdcca6fa-a48c-4028-8406-7f3d04a3e932&utm_source=For_The_Media&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=ftm_links&utm_content=tfl&utm_term=022420 https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762130?gu... Note that they are looking at people who were diagnosed up through Feb 11th. It normally takes people 3 - 4 weeks to die from the disease, and it hasn't even been 3 weeks from Feb 11th, so it seems like this figure is designed as a lower bound.

akiselev 7y ago

That's absolutely nonsensical paranoia. It's the equivalent of making $1000 month one of your startup, $2000 month two, and immediately claiming that by month 24 you will be making over $16 billion. Make no mistake, COVID-19 is likely to become an annual community disease. But it's not going to kill 30 million people until like 2120.

DrJaws 7y ago
I'm not an epidemiologist, and while I do not like to use argument from authority, I trust this guys because is their work, they do it in top institutions and they won't jeopardize their reputation for some fear-mongering tweets. They can be wrong, but they are not going to lie.
- ImaCake 7y ago
  I know a guy who went to work as a post-doc at Harvard. He left behind experimental samples of human blood that were unlabelled, which I had to inform his former supervisor about. He also had a number of other professional failings. The takeaway is that just because someone has "Harvard" on their resume doesn't mean they are even remotely competent.
  - DrJaws 7y ago
    And I completely agree, that's why I said I don't like to use arguments of authority, but two of them are not educated in harvard, they are heads of departments and directors from harvard and john hopkins People educated in those fields with enough renown to claim those positions with a lot to lose for just writing that. And yes, while they can end being just wrong or spreading fearmongering information, they are the most trusted sources I found
- Fomite 7y ago
  I am an epidemiologist, and Marc Lipsitch knows his business.
  - 7y ago

ImaCake 7y ago

A lot of the links you provide have alarmist titles and big claims and confusing evidence. Which is strange since the twitter authors are clearly well educated virologists/epidemiologists. But the style of language makes it difficult for me to trust what they are saying. So far I am sticking to research papers and This Week In Virology [0], where there is a lot less dramatic clickbait language and a lot more skeptical analysis of statistics. My conclusion so far is that no one knows how this will play out, but the fear seems to be more dangerous than the actual disease in many places. 0. http://www.microbe.tv/twiv/ http://www.microbe.tv/twiv/

cylinder 7y ago
do you use twitter much? these look like standard Twitter threads to me with standard Twitter writing style. threads from blue checkmark guys do tend towards sensational though.
jmnicolas 7y ago
> Which is strange since the twitter authors are clearly well educated virologists/epidemiologists. So when educated virologists/epidemiologists put alarming titles you find it strange, not concerning or alarming ?
- bad_user 7y ago
  Internet is full of quacks. Alarming titles indicate quacks more than they indicate actual crisis and we don't have time to check the credentials and the work of the people involved to assess their credibility. Also facts speak for themselves, you don't need alarmism unless you have something to sell. Also in these instances a general panic can do much more harm than the virus can ever do — we already see fears of an economic recession. So yes, it's a huge red flag.
  - 34679 7y ago
    There are two morals to the story "The Boy Who Cried Wolf".

adrr 7y ago

Current antivirals work on it. Shown effective in animal models and now in human testing in China. A US based test, the patient made a recovery and showed significant improvement one day after dose. This is just antivirals that are already out there that being manufactured. There will be vaccines on the market in 6 to 9 months and antibody treatments shortly after.

dillondoyle 7y ago
Do you have research links? Or this is just internet enecdata? I have been contemplating calling in my Truvada script early and mailing a 30-60 pills to my parents but from my googling seems pointless. that Emtricitabine / Tenofovir most certainly wouldn't help? but I couldn't find much and have no idea
- tonyztan 7y ago
  The drug being tested is remdesivir, not tenofovir. https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/24/investing/gilead-sciences-coronavirus-who-remdesivir/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/24/investing/gilead-sciences-cor... https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/06/health/coronavirus-treatments.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/06/health/coronavirus-treatm... https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001191 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001191
  - dillondoyle 7y ago
    thanks!!!