5 ms·

WHO daily sitreps provide very clear stats on transmission outside China. The latest one for Feb 17: https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situat

by oefrha 7y ago

WHO daily sitreps provide very clear stats on transmission outside China. The latest one for Feb 17: https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200217-sitrep-28-covid-19.pdf https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situati... Japan (excluding the cruise ship): 59 confirmed cases (6 new), 26 cases with travel history to China, 33 cases (6 new) without (what they call “with possible or confirmed transmission outside China”).

theseadroid 7y ago
just wanna add to the discussion that there is a peer reviewed paper published today suggesting asymptomatic transmission is very likely. https://academic.oup.com/jid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/infdis/jiaa077/5739751 https://academic.oup.com/jid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/inf...
- _rrnv 7y ago
  Which is interesting because various sources reported very likely asymptotic transmission as far as 2 weeks ago. But proper research takes time. This virus is fast and unknown, and most likely will test every part of our world system in a very dramatic, Hollywood way.
  - dekhn 7y ago
    it's hardly as remarkable or dramatic as you describe it (Hollywood). That's mainly the media upping the severity/alert level of the situation.
- pmoriarty 7y ago
  Even if asymptomatic people transmit the virus "asymptomatic transmission likely plays a minor role in the epidemic overall, WHO says. People who cough or sneeze are more likely to spread the virus, the agency wrote"[1] [1] - https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/02/paper-non-symptomatic-patient-transmitting-coronavirus-wrong https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/02/paper-non-symptomati...
  - mantap 7y ago
    This sounds reassuring until you realise that "People who cough and sneeze" = all humans.
    - Brave-Steak 7y ago
      It is reassuring. You can avoid and protect yourself against coughing/sneezing humans. You can't really avoid an invisible carrier.
      - mantap 7y ago
        You are shadow banned btw. Since this comment: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22316460 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22316460
        Amarok 7y ago
        He looks alright to me
        blaser-waffle 7y ago
        New to the party -- what does that mean and how do you know they're shadow banned?
        mantap 7y ago
        HN has an infamous feature called shadowbanning whereby mods can ban a user in such a way that they can't tell that their account is banned. As far as the user is concerned they are not banned, but the comments they submit are immediately marked as dead when they are posted and hidden. This feature is supposed to be used for cases such as spam bots or crazy people. However for whatever reason sometimes normal users end up shadowbanned. You can tell if a user is shadowbanned if you have showdead on and most of their comments are dead for seemingly no reason. Yet they continue to post new comments unaware that they are banned.
downerending 7y ago
Much better link, if you want to see the most up-to-date sitreps: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports/ https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2...
hef19898 7y ago
Sadly I can upvote you once. This link should be the top comment on any thread about the Corona outbreak.
- hombre_fatal 7y ago
  Another great resource is this map: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.h... put together by John Hopkins University.
  - hef19898 7y ago
    I learned about that one on HN, agree, it's a great resource as well!
Insanity 7y ago
Semi-related, but the map surprised me. In my euro-centric world most maps I see have Europe at the center with the US at the left. Took me a second to realize the US was actually on there. :)
- umanwizard 7y ago
  Similarly, in the US, world maps also usually (or at least "often enough that it doesn't look weird to me") put the Americas in the center.
- mkl 7y ago
  Splitting down the Atlantic is normal in much of the world, possibly even the majority by population.
- hef19898 7y ago
  Kind of like looking at British D-Day maps. They show France at the top, so upside down! But they are driving on the wrong side of the road, so...
  - capableweb 7y ago
    You have any examples of that? Feels like it could be a urban legend and searching for "British D-Day maps" on Google Images show all the maps with France being below UK.
    - hef19898 7y ago
      Not at hand, but way back the day I saw some in old books covering D-Day. My uncle had one lying around where it was shown this way, no idea what the title was. But I remember it, I always turned it upside down to understand the map and then back again to read the text. Not sure if that was something that was down after the war or already during d-day, so.
- benibela 7y ago
  Semi-related, here is a map of Japan: U+1F5FE It is the only country that has a map in unicode afaik (and HN does not support unicode?)
mjw1007 7y ago
The chart showing cases outside China by date of onset of symptoms (Figure 2) looks reasonably reassuring: the peak seems to have remained in the same place (the end of January) for a week or so now. On the other hand, they also say that this data is available for only about a quarter of the known cases.
- rambojazz 7y ago
  Where is Figure 2? There ain't no pictures in the article. Edit: oh sorry you were replying to another comment, not the original article. Figure2 is here: https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200217-sitrep-28-covid-19.pdf https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situati...
jobigoud 7y ago
> very clear stats on transmission outside China Nobody knows the transmission outside China because nobody is testing anyone unless they are coming from China and show symptoms. Even people with the right symptoms aren't tested, because the general assumption is that it's being contained. But we know it can spread before symptoms show up.

by oefrha 7y ago

theseadroid 7y ago

just wanna add to the discussion that there is a peer reviewed paper published today suggesting asymptomatic transmission is very likely. https://academic.oup.com/jid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/infdis/jiaa077/5739751 https://academic.oup.com/jid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/inf...

_rrnv 7y ago
Which is interesting because various sources reported very likely asymptotic transmission as far as 2 weeks ago. But proper research takes time. This virus is fast and unknown, and most likely will test every part of our world system in a very dramatic, Hollywood way.
- dekhn 7y ago
  it's hardly as remarkable or dramatic as you describe it (Hollywood). That's mainly the media upping the severity/alert level of the situation.
pmoriarty 7y ago
Even if asymptomatic people transmit the virus "asymptomatic transmission likely plays a minor role in the epidemic overall, WHO says. People who cough or sneeze are more likely to spread the virus, the agency wrote"[1] [1] - https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/02/paper-non-symptomatic-patient-transmitting-coronavirus-wrong https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/02/paper-non-symptomati...
- mantap 7y ago
  This sounds reassuring until you realise that "People who cough and sneeze" = all humans.
  - Brave-Steak 7y ago
    It is reassuring. You can avoid and protect yourself against coughing/sneezing humans. You can't really avoid an invisible carrier.
    - mantap 7y ago
      You are shadow banned btw. Since this comment: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22316460 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22316460
      - Amarok 7y ago
        He looks alright to me
      - blaser-waffle 7y ago
        New to the party -- what does that mean and how do you know they're shadow banned?
        mantap 7y ago
        HN has an infamous feature called shadowbanning whereby mods can ban a user in such a way that they can't tell that their account is banned. As far as the user is concerned they are not banned, but the comments they submit are immediately marked as dead when they are posted and hidden. This feature is supposed to be used for cases such as spam bots or crazy people. However for whatever reason sometimes normal users end up shadowbanned. You can tell if a user is shadowbanned if you have showdead on and most of their comments are dead for seemingly no reason. Yet they continue to post new comments unaware that they are banned.

downerending 7y ago

Much better link, if you want to see the most up-to-date sitreps: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports/ https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2...

hef19898 7y ago

Sadly I can upvote you once. This link should be the top comment on any thread about the Corona outbreak.

hombre_fatal 7y ago
Another great resource is this map: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.h... put together by John Hopkins University.
- hef19898 7y ago
  I learned about that one on HN, agree, it's a great resource as well!

Insanity 7y ago

Semi-related, but the map surprised me. In my euro-centric world most maps I see have Europe at the center with the US at the left. Took me a second to realize the US was actually on there. :)

umanwizard 7y ago
Similarly, in the US, world maps also usually (or at least "often enough that it doesn't look weird to me") put the Americas in the center.
mkl 7y ago
Splitting down the Atlantic is normal in much of the world, possibly even the majority by population.
hef19898 7y ago
Kind of like looking at British D-Day maps. They show France at the top, so upside down! But they are driving on the wrong side of the road, so...
- capableweb 7y ago
  You have any examples of that? Feels like it could be a urban legend and searching for "British D-Day maps" on Google Images show all the maps with France being below UK.
  - hef19898 7y ago
    Not at hand, but way back the day I saw some in old books covering D-Day. My uncle had one lying around where it was shown this way, no idea what the title was. But I remember it, I always turned it upside down to understand the map and then back again to read the text. Not sure if that was something that was down after the war or already during d-day, so.
benibela 7y ago
Semi-related, here is a map of Japan: U+1F5FE It is the only country that has a map in unicode afaik (and HN does not support unicode?)

mjw1007 7y ago

The chart showing cases outside China by date of onset of symptoms (Figure 2) looks reasonably reassuring: the peak seems to have remained in the same place (the end of January) for a week or so now. On the other hand, they also say that this data is available for only about a quarter of the known cases.

rambojazz 7y ago
Where is Figure 2? There ain't no pictures in the article. Edit: oh sorry you were replying to another comment, not the original article. Figure2 is here: https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200217-sitrep-28-covid-19.pdf https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situati...

jobigoud 7y ago

> very clear stats on transmission outside China Nobody knows the transmission outside China because nobody is testing anyone unless they are coming from China and show symptoms. Even people with the right symptoms aren't tested, because the general assumption is that it's being contained. But we know it can spread before symptoms show up.