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Uber Announces Results for Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2019

130 points by gok 7y ago

tmh79 7y ago
Forecasting EBITDA profitability by Q4 2020
- nappy-doo 7y ago
  EBITDA profitability isn't profitability. It's profitability on all but accounting expenses, which are real expenses. It would be like saying, "I made 100k last year, before I paid my taxes, my mortgage, and my health insurance; but, I still made 100k!!!!!" EBITDA is a terrible accounting metric that people use to hide REAL costs to doing business. (Note there are reasons to use EBITDA, but in non-comparison environment [ie, an environment where you're talking about absolute metrics], it makes no sense.)
  - intuitionist 7y ago
    This is maybe a bad example because it is exactly how people talk about compensation. I’ve never heard anybody say “oh I made $70k last year after taxes and rent.”
    - vbtemp 7y ago
      They would if people were cash-flow producing assets to be bought and sold.
    - sdinsn 7y ago
      > I’ve never heard anybody say “oh I made $70k last year after taxes and rent.” Really? That's pretty much how I and everyone I know talks about compensation.
      - function_seven 7y ago
        They subtract their rent? Really? Taxes I understand. Or even 401(k), or benefits, or whatever else is between Gross and Net. But I've never heard someone deducting certain categories they spent their income on. Maybe this is a regional thing?
    - inerte 7y ago
      I think nappy-doo's point is what happens when taxes, mortgage, health insurance, food, shopping, etc is NOT taken into account. If you make $100k but spend $150k you're in the red, doesn't matter how effusively you celebrate making $100k.
    - hangonhn 7y ago
      Damn. That actually would be a better way of talking about compensation. It would seriously deflate some of the SV compensations and make other locations look more attractive.
    - richardknop 7y ago
      I think nobody would say I made $70k after rent last year. But net salary is what people often mention or look at when considering offers. So, my net salary / take home pay is $X is what is normally talked about between people etc.
  - roel_v 7y ago
    "(Note there are reasons to use EBITDA" What are those reasons? I've taken several accounting and "business from legal pov" classes in my life, and still I don't really understand why it's such a prominent metric. Like, either you use proper profit, or you use turnover - EBITDA has always seemed such an artificial inbetween to me.
    - nappy-doo 7y ago
      EBITDA is a metric that's meaningful if you owned the whole business from the prospective of a larger company swallowing a smaller. For example, EBITDA says, "ok, if I were to price this whole business, and my cost of capital didn't change, I can use this metric to compare it to rewards of ownership of another." It allows you to "divide out" the accounting details of a business. (eg, I can borrow cheaper, or, I can use economies of scale to decrease some amortization cost, etc.) It is largely bogus when discussing the overall metrics of a business, or using it in isolation.
      - roel_v 7y ago
        Thank you, that clears it up for me.
deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
misun78 7y ago
"Rides produced $742 million in EBITDA, up some 281%" Time for the narrative of Uber burning VC money/subsidizing rides/selling-$2 bills-for-$1 to die?
- tryptophan 7y ago
  It hasn't been true for a while. On a per-ride basis in their developed service areas they have been profitable for a long time.
  - disgruntledphd2 7y ago
    And yet they are still losing money. Odd, that.
    - n_o_u 7y ago
      growth tends to do that.
      - ProAm 7y ago
        How long does a company need to grow for? They are 11 years old and there is arguably only 1 competitor.
        robryan 7y ago
        They operate in so many markets though, many competitors in many markets. For example in Australia Ola is generally cheaper (especially so when there is Uber surge pricing). It probably isn't sustainable for Ola either, but at the same time, can Uber afford to give up those users, even in the short term?
        treebornfrog 7y ago
        Exactly.
        harryh 7y ago
        Amazon was essentially break even for longer than that. Worked out ok there.
newfeatureok 7y ago
I wonder how Uber would do if the 2008 financial crisis were to repeat in say, 2022. Tech companies in particular are in for a surprise if a recession of that magnitude happens again.
- nemothekid 7y ago
  I think a company like Uber would probably do well. The whole gig economy was born out of the 2008 financial crisis
- tmh79 7y ago
  a lot of the markets they operate in have had large recessions that they have done well in (IE Brazil). Operating theory is that on the margin, (for riders) people decide to own cars less and use alternatives more as cars are expensive and require large upfront costs but things like uber do not and (on the driver side) people have less alternatives to make money (higher paying, more stable jobs with benefits) so the uber driver gig is more appealing and driver acquisition costs are lower.
- three_seagrass 7y ago
  Uber would do well because there would be a flood of people with more free time and looking to make quick cash with their cars.
  - benburleson 7y ago
    Is that good for them? Is there currently a shortage of drivers?
    - three_seagrass 7y ago
      Yes, it would be, since it gives them the freedom to drop costs (supply and demand). There doesn't need to be an existing shortage of drivers for this to be beneficial.
    - nemothekid 7y ago
      >Is there currently a shortage of drivers? Most of the money Uber is burning is to recruit drivers. If there are more drivers around, there's less of a reason to burn $100MMs to recruit drivers.
nknealk 7y ago
My highlights from the accounting statements (disclaimer: I'm 2 years into my MBA): * They put up $1.2B as collateral for some kind of insurance (looks like rider insurance, but it's unclear). From the footnotes: "In Q4 2019, James River Group withdrew all funds held in trust as collateral for current and future claim settlement obligations under the indemnification agreement. The $1.2 billion of operating cash outflow for 2019 represents this withdrawal of collateral from restricted cash. This change in the form of collateral had no impact on our claim settlement obligations or insurance reserves." Sounds like maybe their insurer dropped them? * Under "Reconciliations of Non-GAAP Measures" -- the driver incentives are unreal. To deliver $734M of gross revenue on Eats in Q4, they paid out $315M in driver incentives. From the "Segment Adjusted EBITDA" at the top, Eats had EBITDA of (461). As a SWAG, for $1 in sales, they pay out about $0.42 in driver incentives and another $1.20 in all other costs (ie. the restaurant's cut for the food itself, operations support, marketing, normal driver's fees, etc). * As a counter point to the above, to render $3B in rides revenue they paid $0.007B in driver incentives.
- three_seagrass 7y ago
  Did they put that much up for insurance though? The delta between 18 and 19 is only about $200M. Uber also tripled it's R&D budget, which may be a good sign for the company, but it looks like it's primarily stock-based compensation.
tmh79 7y ago
RE: eats incentive spend. Its a cash bonfire with Doordash and UE competing domestically, and a lot of other softbank funded delivery groups including uber eats competing in south america. It seems like that late stage financing has dried up so likely to see rationalization in this vertical.
- rconti 7y ago
  At least with ride hailing we got cheap, convenient rides for a subsidized price. For food delivery, we get overpriced (upcharged) food, plus a delivery fee, for cold food that takes forever to show up.
  - wpietri 7y ago
    It really does amaze me how much worse the delivery experience has gotten in the last few years. Prices are way up, and the additional complexity means deliveries are less reliable and less predictable. Which makes a lot of sense, really. If a restaurant advertised delivery previously, they had delivery employees and treated it like an important aspect of their experience. Now it's really not clear who, if anybody, is responsible for ensuring a good experience.
    - WC3w6pXxgGd 7y ago
      Uber is responsible for the delivery experience, the restaurant is responsible for the food experience.
      - ethbro 7y ago
        As any restaurant cook can tell you that there's a lot of steps they have no control over that directly impact food experience.
        WC3w6pXxgGd 7y ago
        How does that relate to my comment?
smoyer 7y ago
Still bearish on Uber stock
- fusdgsaf 7y ago
  Same. I think about the profits up until judgement day - right now I do not see it, and anybody saying "self-driving" will make it profitable will realize, self-driving will shift the entire paradigm and that's too much uncertainty for me. I'm not comfortable saying "if X leads to Y, leads to Z"the stock wins.
throwawayb1z3 7y ago
Uber/UberEats driver here with a few thousand rides. I'm retired from a technical professional career in California. I don't want to give out more info because I don't want to get deactivated. It's a fun job and I love talking to people and being out having a look around. Uber shot itself in the foot in two ways in regard to that big percentage going towards driver incentives A. Uber trained people not to tip so only 10% of them do. B. Uber drivers do both ride share and Eats in the same app. They can turn off one or the other or do both. There often aren't enough Eats drivers as a result (more to follow) A cont... ~~~~~~ People always used to tip taxi drivers, but Uber said "hey you don't need to tip on Uber" and implied or outright said tips are included. Often rides are not profitable without a tip, so drivers refuse them or cancel them. For example, driving 10 miles to give someone a 2 mile ride. So Uber has to gamify and pay incentives for consecutive rides or whatever (I ignore the games, because I do Lyft as well. I make more doing both, rather than playing the games) Here's what Uber has said over the years about tipping: March 30, 2014 https://web.archive.org/web/20140330002844/https://www.uber.com/ https://web.archive.org/web/20140330002844/https://www.uber.... From the rider landing page: CASHLESS & CONVENIENT You don't need cash when you ride with Uber. Once you arrive at your destination, your fare is automatically charged to your credit card on file – no need to tip. We’ll also e-mail you a receipt. From the help: Tipping Drivers Being Uber means there is no need to tip. Mar 31, 2017 https://web.archive.org/web/20170331040415/http://www.uber.com/ride/how-uber-works/ https://web.archive.org/web/20170331040415/http://www.uber.c... Do I need to tip? The Uber app cannot include a tip when billing you for a trip fare... In most cities, Uber is a cashless experience. Tipping is voluntary. Tips are not included in the fare, nor are they expected or required. As a rider, you are not obligated to offer your driver a gratuity in cash. If you decide you would like to tip, your driver is welcome to accept. Today Can my driver ask for a tip? Drivers may request tips at their discretion. Drivers care about rider ratings and do their best to create an ideal trip experience. While Uber does not require riders to offer drivers a tip, you are welcome to do so in cash, through the app, on riders.uber.com, or from your emailed trip receipt. Please note that the trip fare charged to your payment account does not include a gratuity. B cont... ~~~~~~ By doing UberEats in the same app and subjecting Eats drivers to the more stringent standards required of passenger carrying drivers (nice car, spotless background check) they eliminate a lot of Eats drivers, who may have an older car or minor traffic citation. Not only that, but why do Eats when Uber rideshare is busy? (and Lyft is busy, since most drivers do both) With Eats, you have to get out of the car, fight your way into a busy restaurant (Fri,Sat night) deal with surly restaurant personnel. Then, drive to some apartment complex, get out and look for the apartment in the maze, or drive to a house on a dark street and look for the right house number, which is barely visible in the dark or doesn't exist. Then try to find the front door (some will come out and meet you, but not many) Then on top of that not get a tip. You don't have to tip Uber, remember. Eats tip rate is a little higher. Conclusion: Because Uber had told people that they didn't have to tip and that got into the zeitgeist, only 10% of them tip. Uber has to offer bigger driver incentives as a result. Would less people use Uber if they felt they had to tip? Yes, that's why Uber said people don't have to tip. At the time, there were less drivers and I hear anecdotally from other drivers that the money was better than now, even without the tips. Waiters, Bar tenders, many others make good tip money, but that horse has left the barn for Uber and now they can't retrain people to tip. UberEats is a second class job for Uber/Lyft drivers. It would be better as it's own app with less stringent rules. There would be more drivers and they would get there faster. If I am wrong about any of this, I welcome someone pointing that out. Thanks for reading.
nojvek 7y ago
> Airport business outgrows overall Rides - In Q4 2019 our Airport business outgrew overall Rides. We now serve over 650 airports globally and continue to see our airport riders prefer our premium products. In 2020, we will continue to roll out our PIN product (riders receive a PIN and take it to the driver next in line rather than seeking out a specific driver), which has been well-received by riders and by airports. Didn’t realize Airports would be such big business. Overall it seems Uber is growing >20% in rides, trips and active users. I remember when Facebook was valued at 100B without profits and I thought it was absurd. Now they’re a money raining machine with 500B valuation. Year 2019 Total trips: 6.9 Billion Total bookings: $65 Billion Net revenue: $12.8 Billion So they’re taking ~20% cut from every trip. If Uber can reduce burn and be profitable this year, I’m willing to bet $1000, they’ll be >100B by end of 2021. Uber eats and freight grew 70%. Wow! Overall I think if Uber can maintain their market dominance for another decade or so while self driving cars really become viable and people trust them, I can see Uber easily being as large as Facebook.
- BossingAround 7y ago
  > Didn’t realize Airports would be such big business. Typically, I can expense rides to and from airport if I'm traveling for work, so I can be more generous and order a better car.
  - Scoundreller 7y ago
    That and the auto-emailing of a receipt in $YourLanguage billed in $YourCurrency makes expensing it a breeze. Dunno why the receipts are ~500kb though.
- hyperbovine 7y ago
  Facebook is a software business. Its cost for acquiring new users is zero, and every new user makes them money. Uber is a traditional company with traditional expenses that wants you to believe it’s a software company. Big difference.
  - listenallyall 7y ago
Kiro 7y ago
Look at all the all the completely erroneous forecasts dominating the top comments in threads for previous results (often exaggerating the impending doom). This is the first thread where people seem positive about profitability, so maybe it's time to short.

130 points by gok 7y ago

tmh79 7y ago

Forecasting EBITDA profitability by Q4 2020

nappy-doo 7y ago
EBITDA profitability isn't profitability. It's profitability on all but accounting expenses, which are real expenses. It would be like saying, "I made 100k last year, before I paid my taxes, my mortgage, and my health insurance; but, I still made 100k!!!!!" EBITDA is a terrible accounting metric that people use to hide REAL costs to doing business. (Note there are reasons to use EBITDA, but in non-comparison environment [ie, an environment where you're talking about absolute metrics], it makes no sense.)
- intuitionist 7y ago
  This is maybe a bad example because it is exactly how people talk about compensation. I’ve never heard anybody say “oh I made $70k last year after taxes and rent.”
  - vbtemp 7y ago
    They would if people were cash-flow producing assets to be bought and sold.
  - sdinsn 7y ago
    > I’ve never heard anybody say “oh I made $70k last year after taxes and rent.” Really? That's pretty much how I and everyone I know talks about compensation.
    - function_seven 7y ago
      They subtract their rent? Really? Taxes I understand. Or even 401(k), or benefits, or whatever else is between Gross and Net. But I've never heard someone deducting certain categories they spent their income on. Maybe this is a regional thing?
  - inerte 7y ago
    I think nappy-doo's point is what happens when taxes, mortgage, health insurance, food, shopping, etc is NOT taken into account. If you make $100k but spend $150k you're in the red, doesn't matter how effusively you celebrate making $100k.
  - hangonhn 7y ago
    Damn. That actually would be a better way of talking about compensation. It would seriously deflate some of the SV compensations and make other locations look more attractive.
  - richardknop 7y ago
    I think nobody would say I made $70k after rent last year. But net salary is what people often mention or look at when considering offers. So, my net salary / take home pay is $X is what is normally talked about between people etc.
- roel_v 7y ago
  "(Note there are reasons to use EBITDA" What are those reasons? I've taken several accounting and "business from legal pov" classes in my life, and still I don't really understand why it's such a prominent metric. Like, either you use proper profit, or you use turnover - EBITDA has always seemed such an artificial inbetween to me.
  - nappy-doo 7y ago
    EBITDA is a metric that's meaningful if you owned the whole business from the prospective of a larger company swallowing a smaller. For example, EBITDA says, "ok, if I were to price this whole business, and my cost of capital didn't change, I can use this metric to compare it to rewards of ownership of another." It allows you to "divide out" the accounting details of a business. (eg, I can borrow cheaper, or, I can use economies of scale to decrease some amortization cost, etc.) It is largely bogus when discussing the overall metrics of a business, or using it in isolation.
    - roel_v 7y ago
      Thank you, that clears it up for me.

deleted 7y ago

[deleted]

misun78 7y ago

"Rides produced $742 million in EBITDA, up some 281%" Time for the narrative of Uber burning VC money/subsidizing rides/selling-$2 bills-for-$1 to die?

tryptophan 7y ago
It hasn't been true for a while. On a per-ride basis in their developed service areas they have been profitable for a long time.
- disgruntledphd2 7y ago
  And yet they are still losing money. Odd, that.
  - n_o_u 7y ago
    growth tends to do that.
    - ProAm 7y ago
      How long does a company need to grow for? They are 11 years old and there is arguably only 1 competitor.
      - robryan 7y ago
        They operate in so many markets though, many competitors in many markets. For example in Australia Ola is generally cheaper (especially so when there is Uber surge pricing). It probably isn't sustainable for Ola either, but at the same time, can Uber afford to give up those users, even in the short term?
      - treebornfrog 7y ago
        Exactly.
      - harryh 7y ago
        Amazon was essentially break even for longer than that. Worked out ok there.

newfeatureok 7y ago

I wonder how Uber would do if the 2008 financial crisis were to repeat in say, 2022. Tech companies in particular are in for a surprise if a recession of that magnitude happens again.

nemothekid 7y ago
I think a company like Uber would probably do well. The whole gig economy was born out of the 2008 financial crisis
tmh79 7y ago
a lot of the markets they operate in have had large recessions that they have done well in (IE Brazil). Operating theory is that on the margin, (for riders) people decide to own cars less and use alternatives more as cars are expensive and require large upfront costs but things like uber do not and (on the driver side) people have less alternatives to make money (higher paying, more stable jobs with benefits) so the uber driver gig is more appealing and driver acquisition costs are lower.
three_seagrass 7y ago
Uber would do well because there would be a flood of people with more free time and looking to make quick cash with their cars.
- benburleson 7y ago
  Is that good for them? Is there currently a shortage of drivers?
  - three_seagrass 7y ago
    Yes, it would be, since it gives them the freedom to drop costs (supply and demand). There doesn't need to be an existing shortage of drivers for this to be beneficial.
  - nemothekid 7y ago
    >Is there currently a shortage of drivers? Most of the money Uber is burning is to recruit drivers. If there are more drivers around, there's less of a reason to burn $100MMs to recruit drivers.

nknealk 7y ago

My highlights from the accounting statements (disclaimer: I'm 2 years into my MBA): * They put up $1.2B as collateral for some kind of insurance (looks like rider insurance, but it's unclear). From the footnotes: "In Q4 2019, James River Group withdrew all funds held in trust as collateral for current and future claim settlement obligations under the indemnification agreement. The $1.2 billion of operating cash outflow for 2019 represents this withdrawal of collateral from restricted cash. This change in the form of collateral had no impact on our claim settlement obligations or insurance reserves." Sounds like maybe their insurer dropped them? * Under "Reconciliations of Non-GAAP Measures" -- the driver incentives are unreal. To deliver $734M of gross revenue on Eats in Q4, they paid out $315M in driver incentives. From the "Segment Adjusted EBITDA" at the top, Eats had EBITDA of (461). As a SWAG, for $1 in sales, they pay out about $0.42 in driver incentives and another $1.20 in all other costs (ie. the restaurant's cut for the food itself, operations support, marketing, normal driver's fees, etc). * As a counter point to the above, to render $3B in rides revenue they paid $0.007B in driver incentives.

three_seagrass 7y ago
Did they put that much up for insurance though? The delta between 18 and 19 is only about $200M. Uber also tripled it's R&D budget, which may be a good sign for the company, but it looks like it's primarily stock-based compensation.

tmh79 7y ago

RE: eats incentive spend. Its a cash bonfire with Doordash and UE competing domestically, and a lot of other softbank funded delivery groups including uber eats competing in south america. It seems like that late stage financing has dried up so likely to see rationalization in this vertical.

rconti 7y ago
At least with ride hailing we got cheap, convenient rides for a subsidized price. For food delivery, we get overpriced (upcharged) food, plus a delivery fee, for cold food that takes forever to show up.
- wpietri 7y ago
  It really does amaze me how much worse the delivery experience has gotten in the last few years. Prices are way up, and the additional complexity means deliveries are less reliable and less predictable. Which makes a lot of sense, really. If a restaurant advertised delivery previously, they had delivery employees and treated it like an important aspect of their experience. Now it's really not clear who, if anybody, is responsible for ensuring a good experience.
  - WC3w6pXxgGd 7y ago
    Uber is responsible for the delivery experience, the restaurant is responsible for the food experience.
    - ethbro 7y ago
      As any restaurant cook can tell you that there's a lot of steps they have no control over that directly impact food experience.
      - WC3w6pXxgGd 7y ago
        How does that relate to my comment?

smoyer 7y ago

Still bearish on Uber stock

fusdgsaf 7y ago
Same. I think about the profits up until judgement day - right now I do not see it, and anybody saying "self-driving" will make it profitable will realize, self-driving will shift the entire paradigm and that's too much uncertainty for me. I'm not comfortable saying "if X leads to Y, leads to Z"the stock wins.

throwawayb1z3 7y ago

Uber/UberEats driver here with a few thousand rides. I'm retired from a technical professional career in California. I don't want to give out more info because I don't want to get deactivated. It's a fun job and I love talking to people and being out having a look around. Uber shot itself in the foot in two ways in regard to that big percentage going towards driver incentives A. Uber trained people not to tip so only 10% of them do. B. Uber drivers do both ride share and Eats in the same app. They can turn off one or the other or do both. There often aren't enough Eats drivers as a result (more to follow) A cont... ~~~~~~ People always used to tip taxi drivers, but Uber said "hey you don't need to tip on Uber" and implied or outright said tips are included. Often rides are not profitable without a tip, so drivers refuse them or cancel them. For example, driving 10 miles to give someone a 2 mile ride. So Uber has to gamify and pay incentives for consecutive rides or whatever (I ignore the games, because I do Lyft as well. I make more doing both, rather than playing the games) Here's what Uber has said over the years about tipping: March 30, 2014 https://web.archive.org/web/20140330002844/https://www.uber.com/ https://web.archive.org/web/20140330002844/https://www.uber.... From the rider landing page: CASHLESS & CONVENIENT You don't need cash when you ride with Uber. Once you arrive at your destination, your fare is automatically charged to your credit card on file – no need to tip. We’ll also e-mail you a receipt. From the help: Tipping Drivers Being Uber means there is no need to tip. Mar 31, 2017 https://web.archive.org/web/20170331040415/http://www.uber.com/ride/how-uber-works/ https://web.archive.org/web/20170331040415/http://www.uber.c... Do I need to tip? The Uber app cannot include a tip when billing you for a trip fare... In most cities, Uber is a cashless experience. Tipping is voluntary. Tips are not included in the fare, nor are they expected or required. As a rider, you are not obligated to offer your driver a gratuity in cash. If you decide you would like to tip, your driver is welcome to accept. Today Can my driver ask for a tip? Drivers may request tips at their discretion. Drivers care about rider ratings and do their best to create an ideal trip experience. While Uber does not require riders to offer drivers a tip, you are welcome to do so in cash, through the app, on riders.uber.com, or from your emailed trip receipt. Please note that the trip fare charged to your payment account does not include a gratuity. B cont... ~~~~~~ By doing UberEats in the same app and subjecting Eats drivers to the more stringent standards required of passenger carrying drivers (nice car, spotless background check) they eliminate a lot of Eats drivers, who may have an older car or minor traffic citation. Not only that, but why do Eats when Uber rideshare is busy? (and Lyft is busy, since most drivers do both) With Eats, you have to get out of the car, fight your way into a busy restaurant (Fri,Sat night) deal with surly restaurant personnel. Then, drive to some apartment complex, get out and look for the apartment in the maze, or drive to a house on a dark street and look for the right house number, which is barely visible in the dark or doesn't exist. Then try to find the front door (some will come out and meet you, but not many) Then on top of that not get a tip. You don't have to tip Uber, remember. Eats tip rate is a little higher. Conclusion: Because Uber had told people that they didn't have to tip and that got into the zeitgeist, only 10% of them tip. Uber has to offer bigger driver incentives as a result. Would less people use Uber if they felt they had to tip? Yes, that's why Uber said people don't have to tip. At the time, there were less drivers and I hear anecdotally from other drivers that the money was better than now, even without the tips. Waiters, Bar tenders, many others make good tip money, but that horse has left the barn for Uber and now they can't retrain people to tip. UberEats is a second class job for Uber/Lyft drivers. It would be better as it's own app with less stringent rules. There would be more drivers and they would get there faster. If I am wrong about any of this, I welcome someone pointing that out. Thanks for reading.

nojvek 7y ago

> Airport business outgrows overall Rides - In Q4 2019 our Airport business outgrew overall Rides. We now serve over 650 airports globally and continue to see our airport riders prefer our premium products. In 2020, we will continue to roll out our PIN product (riders receive a PIN and take it to the driver next in line rather than seeking out a specific driver), which has been well-received by riders and by airports. Didn’t realize Airports would be such big business. Overall it seems Uber is growing >20% in rides, trips and active users. I remember when Facebook was valued at 100B without profits and I thought it was absurd. Now they’re a money raining machine with 500B valuation. Year 2019 Total trips: 6.9 Billion Total bookings: $65 Billion Net revenue: $12.8 Billion So they’re taking ~20% cut from every trip. If Uber can reduce burn and be profitable this year, I’m willing to bet $1000, they’ll be >100B by end of 2021. Uber eats and freight grew 70%. Wow! Overall I think if Uber can maintain their market dominance for another decade or so while self driving cars really become viable and people trust them, I can see Uber easily being as large as Facebook.

BossingAround 7y ago
> Didn’t realize Airports would be such big business. Typically, I can expense rides to and from airport if I'm traveling for work, so I can be more generous and order a better car.
- Scoundreller 7y ago
  That and the auto-emailing of a receipt in $YourLanguage billed in $YourCurrency makes expensing it a breeze. Dunno why the receipts are ~500kb though.
hyperbovine 7y ago
Facebook is a software business. Its cost for acquiring new users is zero, and every new user makes them money. Uber is a traditional company with traditional expenses that wants you to believe it’s a software company. Big difference.
- listenallyall 7y ago

Kiro 7y ago

Look at all the all the completely erroneous forecasts dominating the top comments in threads for previous results (often exaggerating the impending doom). This is the first thread where people seem positive about profitability, so maybe it's time to short.