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The bull case for Tesla is clear. Aside from Nissan with the Leaf, who recently loss their galvanizing CEO and who's market cap has tanked since, what major aut
by 40acres 7y ago
The bull case for Tesla is clear. Aside from Nissan with the Leaf, who recently loss their galvanizing CEO and who's market cap has tanked since, what major automaker has anywhere near the success of Tesla with EV?
No doubt execution has been an issue in the past, but recent sales trends, completion of gigafactory, and Chinese expansion show that they are on the right trend.
Tesla's were confined to the luxury market, but the Model 3 is doing well and Tesla is being allowed to come out with more and more SKUs while the other big auto's are still finding their footing.
The branding is on point without the need to advertise, like the iPhone, Tesla's are becoming just a feature of everyday life (at least in large metro's). Finally, and this is absolutely non-empirical, I just believe in Elon. Tesla might be one of those companies that simply fades away once a galvanizing leader leaves, but as long as his heart is beating I'll hold.
- xkjkls 7y agoTesla still lost $800 million this year and has never had a profitable year, on both record car sales and record regulatory credit sales. What about that indicates sustainability?
- trhway 7y ago$800M loss on $25B sales (which are growing YoY while R&D actually resulting in new models and features is maintained stable) is a noise at this point.
- neosat 7y agoAgree. Given the growth numbers and their market leadership in the EV area, there's a strong case to be made that this 'loss' is more of an 'investment' to set up for future revenue growth and consequently profits that come with increasing maturity and operational cost reductions.
- xkjkls 7y agoThey have shrunk in sales YoY in the US and Norway, their two largest markets. They managed to grow globally by finding the most advantageous subsidies for them to take advantage of. However, even that only gave them 1% growth of the past year.
- woodandsteel 7y agoThe low growth was because of production problems and because they maxed out their single factory. Now they have another factory producing and a third under construction. As to subsidies, governments are pushing ev's harder and harder. The EU has continually-increasing fleet standards that can be met only by adding more ev's, and China has continually increasing ev production standards. Ev sales are going to keep increasing, and Tesla makes the best ev's. Sales, revenues and profits are going to keep going up.
- xkjkls 7y agoWhy were they able to meet a run rate or 500k cars a year in Q4 of last year and not sustain it if their factory was maxed out? And why would they claim in projections that their factory was capable of producing that if they didn’t meet that? Companies are rarely production constrained. Many claim they are, but the fact that Tesla sales in their two largest markets declined doesn’t indicate to me that production is their number one issue.
- woodandsteel 7y agoAt 500k per year they were still nowhere near meeting global demand, and they decided to move sales away from markets they were already well-established in, and into new ones. The nice thing about this disagreement we are having is it will be settled by what happens in the next year. I say Tesla's sales will go up strongly now that it has another factory. I take it you think they won't, and all that new capacity will go unsold.
- xeromal 7y ago
- xkjkls 7y agoR&D isn’t even meeting depreciation though. Either these factories are some how never before seen in accounting history or this company is underinvesting in its futures
- zaroth 7y agoActually there’s a third option which has been discussed on their financial calls. Their capital efficiency has markedly increased. To put it less glamorously, they burned boatloads of money chasing “alien dreadnaught” style fully automated production, and after recognizing that failure (better late than never) they now find they are able to build out new production lines at a fraction of the first line’s cost.
- xkjkls 7y agoMaybe. My bet is that they have been underinvesting in order to meet financial results, and that that will catch up to them. Looking at other financial statement history, this seems like a safe bet.
- optimiz3 7y agoOur TSLA brokerage accounts thank you and your /r/RealTesla brethren for your sacrifice.
- woodandsteel 7y agoBecause it has overcome the problems that lead to the losses, and it is set in a number of ways to be highly profitable this year and into the future.
- xkjkls 7y agoThis company has been unprofitable for ten consecutive years as a public company. That’s a record. I’ll hold my breath on people saying the future will be different.
- rjdagost 7y agoThis is what a speculative bubble looks like. Enjoy popcorn on the sidelines until people start pricing in financial reality. Manias sometimes take a while to fizzle out. Year over year revenue growth is actually flat to slightly negative for the past 2 quarters. If top-line revenue growth continues to stall out, that's often a catalyst for corrections.
- xkjkls 7y agoYeah, it will be hard for Q1 to be as bad as last year, but it doesn’t look pretty from there.
- jussij 7y agoThe financial results from the link don't show a $800 million loss for this year. From that document in the FINANCIAL SUMMARY section there are these quarterly profit/loss number: Income (loss) from operations Q1-2019 Q2-2019 Q3-2019 Q4-2019 -522 -167 261 359 So for the first half of the year Tesla did lose 689 million dollars. But for the whole year that was only a loss of 69 million dollars. I think what the market likes is the Tesla cash position. If you look at those it would appear Tesla is no longer burning cash. Cash and cash equivalents Q4-2018 Q1-2019 Q2-2019 Q3-2019 Q4-2019 QoQ YoY 3,686 2,198 4,955 5,338 6,268 17% 70% The fact that the year on year cash position grew by 70% would be pretty comforting to shareholders.
- xkjkls 7y agoYou’re using non-GAAP numbers. By GAAP standards, they lost $800 million
- blaser-waffle 7y agoLOL, it was ONLY ~$70 million. How does this stack up to last year, and forecasts for next year? If they were in the hole $120MM last year and now only 69, with forecasts for ~20MM or less next year then there is a clear road to profitability and I might be willing to do the Long thing.
- lazyjones 7y agoHere's a different opinion: https://edition.cnn.com/2020/01/29/business/tesla-earnings/index.html https://edition.cnn.com/2020/01/29/business/tesla-earnings/i...
- xkjkls 7y agoUsing non-GAAP numbers. Non-GAAP gives you substantial lee-way to not charge things to your bottom line. I don't think you get to claim to run a profitable business just because you started paying your employees completely in stock.
- Sohcahtoa82 7y agoOther car manufacturers are missing what makes Tesla do so well. It's a lot of things, really. Range, performance, the hope of self-driving, the supercharging network (Which is much bigger than people think!), and of course, the fact that they look like normal cars. Most other EVs like the Leaf are either incredibly lacking in range and performance, or they're incredibly ugly like the BMW i3. Then you've got cars like the Mullen Qiantu K50 [0] that try to be something special, but other than looks are incredibly lackluster and overpriced. $125K, and its performance and range are on par with a $48K Model 3 LR AWD. They're trying to brand it like a supercar, but it's only a supercar in the looks. It's crazy to me that other makers can't even get charging done well. Most public CHAdeMO or CCS chargers are only up to 50 kW, while Tesla superchargers are usually 72 kW and sometimes up to 150 kW. Being able to charge quickly is a must when one of your biggest barriers to getting customers is overcoming their range anxiety. [0] https://mullenusa.com/reserve-qiantu-k50/ https://mullenusa.com/reserve-qiantu-k50/
- CraftThatBlock 7y agoThe logo for Mullen is incredibly similar to Tesla's. Also, Supercharger v3 goes up to 250kW
- simonebrunozzi 7y ago250? That's insane! Do you know what the timeline is? Can we assume all charging stations will be upgraded, or will there be a limitation in capacity?
- speedgoose 7y agoMany EVs have a good enough range and more than good enough performances. Sure a ipace or etron don't drive as far as a equivalent Tesla, but sometimes you don't need that. Also, we are many to love the i3 look. It's a matter of tastes.
- jonplackett 7y agoI realised awhile back how my brain works when I buy stuff. Most of my happiness with something I buy is based on regret or not. I know that if I buy an electric car that isn’t a Tesla, whenever that car bugs me, I will think ‘damn it, I wish I bought a Tesla’ But if I buy a Tesla, I’m not going to think it wish ‘I’d bought a leaf’ That’s just me. I don’t even have an electric car yet. But my name is down for the cybertruck.
- throwaway5752 7y agoGM? Bolt is a great car and GM has enormous production capability. Well aware of the difference in sales figures, but having driven both, I prefer it to the Model S. I think battery tech will end up deciding the market, though, and GM would have to pivot harder that I think they are able to in order to beat Tesla. I am very curious about their internal R&D pipeline for the Maxwell technology.
- primrose 7y agoWhy do you prefer the Bolt? From my perspective the Bolt is: -Ugly -Less safe -Slower -Doesn't drive itself, or will be capable in the future Worst of all the Bolt's infotainment system is horrible. https://www.chevrolet.com/content/dam/chevrolet/na/us/english/index/vehicles/2020/cars/bolt-ev/gallery/interior/2020-bolt-ev-int-gal-04.jpg?imwidth=1440 https://www.chevrolet.com/content/dam/chevrolet/na/us/englis...
- throwaway5752 7y agoI preferred the Bolt because it had similar and adequate range, adequate recharge capability, better drive, felt substantially roomier in the interior, and I preferred the higher seating. I have no use for an infotainment system in any vehicle (give me a hotspot and I'll bring my own devices). I disliked the Tesla center mounted tablet console dashboard, though that's subjective. I don't think the Tesla drives itself, does it? That was not a factor for me, and if anything would be a mild negative at the current level of self-driving tech maturity. At any rate, the Bolt had some useful driver assist packages for safety, though they are upgrades. I think they both have fairly similar safety ratings. And speed isn't a consideration for me, as long as it goes fast enough for highway. Nor is appearance, within reason. I really am thrilled for Tesla's success and don't think there is a "right car" but a "right car for you". The Bolt is a good car, though.
- primrose 7y ago> would be a mild negative at the current level of self-driving tech maturity Tesla's more or less take over on the freeway. They are also on their way to mastering traffic lights. > center mounted tablet console dashboard Yeah, that's a little weird. > the Bolt had some useful driver assist packages for safety, though they are upgrades Tesla's are the safest cars on the road now.
- ninth_ant 7y agoWhat you describe would be the “bull case” dozens of billions in valuation ago. Right now we are quite disconnected from that, in my analysis. To justify their current valuation, the “bull case” is for them to dominate the entire automative industry (not just the EV segment) and do an Amazon-like turnaround of losses into profitability. Anything short of that, their valuation is ludicrous.
- 300bps 7y agoTesla is not just a car manufacturer though right? They are a solar company and battery company too. They could conceivably have astronomical growth in both of those segments.
- andrewmunsell 7y agoThe valuation of Tesla also seems very high to me at first, but given their growth in the other segments such as energy storage and generation, I absolutely think that the valuation could be justified. Tesla owns the entire vertical from battery cell manufacturing, using those cells to do work (automotive), home and grid energy storage, and solar generation. Throw in the rest of Elon’s companies and you also get the transportation network itself (Boring) and even the data provider for these cars that need to be highly connected (Starlink). And if you really want to believe Elon, some weird, someday a pressurized version of the Cybertruck might become the transportation off of this planet.
- beamatronic 7y agoOther car manufacturers would be smart to source their batteries from Tesla.
- grecy 7y agoI doubt Tesla will sell to them, Elon has said a few times their vehicle output is constrained by how many battery cells they can make. If they sell those cells to other manufacturers, they won't be able to make so many cars themselves.
- chemmail 7y agoThe problem is that all old car manufacturers are treating EV like the enemy, which it is to their old ways. Same thing happened with Kodak. Imagine your art, your soul, your heritage of combustion engines ripped away. You spend decades, centuries even, perfecting the internal combustion engine. Your pride and joy is now obsolete. You can see why it was so hard for everyone to switch over. Almost all your cumulative knowledge, obsolete. Everything back to the drawing board. It is why Toyota, with their insanely successful Prius, who knew full an well how transformative the EV side is, dragged their heals until to this very day. Most of the Germans have delayed their EVs for mass market in the US from 2021 to 2022. Even Hyundai, who is the closets to Tesla in efficiency, is frought with delays. "We are X* we will have no problem making an EV" they said! *Daimler, Volkswagon, Audi
- Kbelicius 7y ago> The problem is that all old car manufacturers are treating EV like the enemy, which it is to their old ways. In what way are they treating EV like the enemy? > Same thing happened with Kodak. No it did not. What happened to Kodak was that its primary source of profit, film, was threatened by new technological developments. That is in no way comparable with the situation of car manufacturers. > You spend decades, centuries even, perfecting the internal combustion engine. Your pride and joy is now obsolete. You can see why it was so hard for everyone to switch over. It was hard to switch over because it was thought that it wasn't profitable. Now that it is apparent that it is profitable nobody has any problems switching over at least not any problems of the kind you are talking about. > Almost all your cumulative knowledge, obsolete. Almost all knowledge is obsolete... wtf. Are EVs not vehicles and haven't we been making vehicles for a long time? > It is why Toyota, with their insanely successful Prius, who knew full an well how transformative the EV side is, dragged their heals until to this very day. Because they were concentrating on hydrogen cars. > Most of the Germans have delayed their EVs for mass market in the US from 2021 to 2022. Even Hyundai, who is the closets to Tesla in efficiency, is frought with delays. "We are X* we will have no problem making an EV" they said! And how many delays did Tesla have?
- AtlasBarfed 7y ago
- tonyedgecombe 7y agoI still think the other manufacturers aren't going to stay behind forever. VW in particular seem to be betting the company on their MEB platform.