4 ms·

So based on the outcome so far (107 deaths, 63 fully recovered) the survival rate is 37%?

by adhoc32 7y ago

rapsey 7y ago
Chinese numbers are entirely untrustable.
kenneth 7y ago
Is it really that few fully recovered?
jokoon 7y ago
Isn't that too early since there are still thousands of new cases? The survival rate can improve. Most of those deaths are probably early patients who did not benefit from proper cares since at the time they did not know what it was.
christkv 7y ago
I think we should look at survival rate for patients in western care to get a better understanding of the rate of death when under better care.
- catalogia 7y ago
  I don't think there are enough cases outside China to perform that analysis yet. Of the 4474 cases, only 65 are outside China. My stats is rusty, but given that something like 2-3% of that 4474 in China have died, I think zero deaths from 65 cases outside China doesn't mean a ton.
wuschel 7y ago
I guess it is difficult to know if these are the right numbers. Elderly people, and people with a disposition (eg. COPD) are much more vulnerable to a corona virus infection. I would wait before more people have gone through the disease before making a conclusion about statistics such as case fatality rates et cetera.
christkv 7y ago
Patients outside of China do not seem to have serious illness so far. https://www.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/euvexx/current_status_of_outsidechina_patients/ https://www.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/euvexx/current_s... But there are two few confirmed cases to understand the mortality rate. Might be there are additional factors unique to China that is causing a higher death rate.
- takeda 7y ago
  Or the higher death rate in China could be due to them concealing the real number of infected people.
- swader999 7y ago
  These are the ones self reporting and getting prompt care.
chippy 7y ago
It might mean, out of those patients being treated (i.e. already very ill with it), rather than total infected? I was reading somewhere that the doubling in cases in China was mainly due to increasing capacity for hospitals to diagnose the infection rather than an actual measurement of the spread of the disease.
- adhoc32 7y ago
  that's a reasonable explanation
koheripbal 7y ago
Unfortunately, none of the numbers are reliable at this point. People are being turned away from hospitals. Dead patients are not being post-humously tested for coronavirus. Most patients hospitalized arent yet recovered (or dead) yet etc... The only rate we know so far is the dead/hospitalized rate, which is around 13% - which comperable to SARS.

So based on the outcome so far (107 deaths, 63 fully recovered) the survival rate is 37%?

rapsey 7y ago

Chinese numbers are entirely untrustable.

kenneth 7y ago

Is it really that few fully recovered?

jokoon 7y ago

Isn't that too early since there are still thousands of new cases? The survival rate can improve. Most of those deaths are probably early patients who did not benefit from proper cares since at the time they did not know what it was.

christkv 7y ago

I think we should look at survival rate for patients in western care to get a better understanding of the rate of death when under better care.

catalogia 7y ago
I don't think there are enough cases outside China to perform that analysis yet. Of the 4474 cases, only 65 are outside China. My stats is rusty, but given that something like 2-3% of that 4474 in China have died, I think zero deaths from 65 cases outside China doesn't mean a ton.

wuschel 7y ago

I guess it is difficult to know if these are the right numbers. Elderly people, and people with a disposition (eg. COPD) are much more vulnerable to a corona virus infection. I would wait before more people have gone through the disease before making a conclusion about statistics such as case fatality rates et cetera.

christkv 7y ago

Patients outside of China do not seem to have serious illness so far. https://www.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/euvexx/current_status_of_outsidechina_patients/ https://www.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/euvexx/current_s... But there are two few confirmed cases to understand the mortality rate. Might be there are additional factors unique to China that is causing a higher death rate.

takeda 7y ago
Or the higher death rate in China could be due to them concealing the real number of infected people.
swader999 7y ago
These are the ones self reporting and getting prompt care.

chippy 7y ago

It might mean, out of those patients being treated (i.e. already very ill with it), rather than total infected? I was reading somewhere that the doubling in cases in China was mainly due to increasing capacity for hospitals to diagnose the infection rather than an actual measurement of the spread of the disease.

adhoc32 7y ago
that's a reasonable explanation

koheripbal 7y ago

Unfortunately, none of the numbers are reliable at this point. People are being turned away from hospitals. Dead patients are not being post-humously tested for coronavirus. Most patients hospitalized arent yet recovered (or dead) yet etc... The only rate we know so far is the dead/hospitalized rate, which is around 13% - which comperable to SARS.