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World Scientists' Warning of a Climate Emergency - Jan 2020

31 points by godelmachine 7y ago

perfunctory 7y ago
Perhaps the most encouraging graph is "total institutional assets divested". Although I'm not sure "encouraging" is the right word at this point.
busymom0 7y ago
Their letter refers to the first world climate conference of 1979. However, the letter which was written by the scientists back then to President Nixon (which led to the climate conference) said the opposite - that we were approaching an ice age: https://i.imgur.com/X0DSNU1.jpg https://i.imgur.com/X0DSNU1.jpg So I find it disturbing that they don’t mention that in this letter even though they claim they have been researching greenhouses gases causing warming since then.
- imtringued 7y ago
  CO2 research is much older than 1979 or even 1956. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.2153-3490.1956.tb01206.x https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.2153-3490.... The first paragraph: "CHAMBERLIN (1897, 1898, 1899) presented in detail the geological implications of the carbon dioxide theory. As a result of these early articles, during that eriod the carbon dioxide explanation of climatic change. In recent years the carbon dioxide theory has had relatively few adherents. Most authors have dismissed this theory with a remark similar to the following quotation from C. E. P. BROOKS (1951): the carbon dioxide theory was “abandoned when it was found that all the long-wave radiation absorbed by CO, is also absorbed by water vapor.” This often quoted conclusion is based on early, approximate calculations of the radiation flux in the atmosphere. The results of more accurate calculations of the radiation flux have recently become available. Thus it seems worthwhile to reappraise the CO2, theory of climatic change." Climate change is treated the same way it is today. People refuse to believe it, waste time doing nothing and then the pressure to ignore the problem grows with every single year fueling a vicious cycle.
  - goatinaboat 7y ago
    People refuse to believe it, The essence of the scientific method is testable predictions. When it keeps not happening, the perfectly rational - in fact scientific - response is to discount it. If you want to blame anyone blame the scientists who overegged the pudding once too often. The ice age, acid rain, holes in the ozone layer etc etc were all presented by scientists as imminent existential threats, yet none of them materialised as such. Obviously “doom fatigue” has set in amongst the general population.
    - kls 7y ago
      You are correct the essence of science is repeatable predictions. Sadly I don't think the majority demographic of HN was around to see all the other fear mongering that happened in decades past, so they just down-vote and move on, not thinking about what science actually entails. All of those real environmental issues where dealt with, in measured response and we survived. If we had listened to the extremists agendas we would have all started living in mud huts instead of taking lead out of gas and banning CFC's. There are real environmental disasters happening like the reef's dyeing near agricultural runoff and deforestation due to industrialization. These real issues get drowned out by this incessant fear mongering that cannot make an accurate prediction, because they try to conscript every disaster as being related to AGW, then the predictions go south when they try to support their claims. Fixing CO2 is not going to save the reefs, getting rid of nitrogen and phosphorus runoff from agricultural farming will. We know this for a fact, we have repeatable test that prove it conclusively. Fixing CO2 will not stop deforestation, the increase in CO2 has actually lead to a greener earth, controls on logging, returning to sane preventative burning policies and limiting growth into forest areas will.
      - goatinaboat 7y ago
        I don't think the majority demographic of HN was around to see all the other fear mongering that happened in decades past I suspect you’re correct. I remember when I was a child the children in my village were not allowed to play outside for a while because our parents had seen or read scare stories about acid rain and thought we would be burned by it! But I don’t believe there was a single case in Wales of a child being dissolved... and it rains here every day!
- tzs 7y ago
  In 1972 there were two things humans were doing that if they continued growing at the pace they were could seriously affect climate: 1. emitting CO2 and other greenhouse gases, which would cause warming, and 2. emitting air pollution in the form of particulates, which would cause cooling. Most climate scientists though that #1 would be the stronger effect, although a few thought #2 would win out. The latter got more attention in the popular press and from politicians, probably because an ice age is a more dramatic image than a world a few degrees hotter. There was a pretty big effort to address #2, for a variety of reasons. Probably the biggest is that this kind of pollution has an immediate effect. You can see it and smell it and taste it and feel it. These efforts paid off, and we greatly reduced this kind of emission.
Proven 7y ago
There is no emergency like there wasn't 10 or 20 or 30 years ago. Move on, nothing to see here.
Bantros 7y ago
Yawn
- youareostriches 7y ago
  imminent human suffering, isn’t it so passé? when’s the next javascript framework?
  - Bantros 7y ago
    Keep telling yourself that
    - youareostriches 7y ago
      tell us the future, oh mighty oracle, whose sight is beyond the limits of science and reason, so that we may be enlightened.
SamPatt 7y ago
There are many great scientists in this field and we should take heed of their warnings. But this isn't an example of that happening. This is activism dressed up as science. Their use of charts is a textbook example of how to mislead. https://twitter.com/SamuelPatt/status/1191787079820365830?s=19 https://twitter.com/SamuelPatt/status/1191787079820365830?s=...

31 points by godelmachine 7y ago

Perhaps the most encouraging graph is "total institutional assets divested". Although I'm not sure "encouraging" is the right word at this point.

busymom0 7y ago

Their letter refers to the first world climate conference of 1979. However, the letter which was written by the scientists back then to President Nixon (which led to the climate conference) said the opposite - that we were approaching an ice age: https://i.imgur.com/X0DSNU1.jpg https://i.imgur.com/X0DSNU1.jpg So I find it disturbing that they don’t mention that in this letter even though they claim they have been researching greenhouses gases causing warming since then.

imtringued 7y ago
CO2 research is much older than 1979 or even 1956. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.2153-3490.1956.tb01206.x https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.2153-3490.... The first paragraph: "CHAMBERLIN (1897, 1898, 1899) presented in detail the geological implications of the carbon dioxide theory. As a result of these early articles, during that eriod the carbon dioxide explanation of climatic change. In recent years the carbon dioxide theory has had relatively few adherents. Most authors have dismissed this theory with a remark similar to the following quotation from C. E. P. BROOKS (1951): the carbon dioxide theory was “abandoned when it was found that all the long-wave radiation absorbed by CO, is also absorbed by water vapor.” This often quoted conclusion is based on early, approximate calculations of the radiation flux in the atmosphere. The results of more accurate calculations of the radiation flux have recently become available. Thus it seems worthwhile to reappraise the CO2, theory of climatic change." Climate change is treated the same way it is today. People refuse to believe it, waste time doing nothing and then the pressure to ignore the problem grows with every single year fueling a vicious cycle.
- goatinaboat 7y ago
  People refuse to believe it, The essence of the scientific method is testable predictions. When it keeps not happening, the perfectly rational - in fact scientific - response is to discount it. If you want to blame anyone blame the scientists who overegged the pudding once too often. The ice age, acid rain, holes in the ozone layer etc etc were all presented by scientists as imminent existential threats, yet none of them materialised as such. Obviously “doom fatigue” has set in amongst the general population.
  - kls 7y ago
    You are correct the essence of science is repeatable predictions. Sadly I don't think the majority demographic of HN was around to see all the other fear mongering that happened in decades past, so they just down-vote and move on, not thinking about what science actually entails. All of those real environmental issues where dealt with, in measured response and we survived. If we had listened to the extremists agendas we would have all started living in mud huts instead of taking lead out of gas and banning CFC's. There are real environmental disasters happening like the reef's dyeing near agricultural runoff and deforestation due to industrialization. These real issues get drowned out by this incessant fear mongering that cannot make an accurate prediction, because they try to conscript every disaster as being related to AGW, then the predictions go south when they try to support their claims. Fixing CO2 is not going to save the reefs, getting rid of nitrogen and phosphorus runoff from agricultural farming will. We know this for a fact, we have repeatable test that prove it conclusively. Fixing CO2 will not stop deforestation, the increase in CO2 has actually lead to a greener earth, controls on logging, returning to sane preventative burning policies and limiting growth into forest areas will.
    - goatinaboat 7y ago
      I don't think the majority demographic of HN was around to see all the other fear mongering that happened in decades past I suspect you’re correct. I remember when I was a child the children in my village were not allowed to play outside for a while because our parents had seen or read scare stories about acid rain and thought we would be burned by it! But I don’t believe there was a single case in Wales of a child being dissolved... and it rains here every day!
tzs 7y ago
In 1972 there were two things humans were doing that if they continued growing at the pace they were could seriously affect climate: 1. emitting CO2 and other greenhouse gases, which would cause warming, and 2. emitting air pollution in the form of particulates, which would cause cooling. Most climate scientists though that #1 would be the stronger effect, although a few thought #2 would win out. The latter got more attention in the popular press and from politicians, probably because an ice age is a more dramatic image than a world a few degrees hotter. There was a pretty big effort to address #2, for a variety of reasons. Probably the biggest is that this kind of pollution has an immediate effect. You can see it and smell it and taste it and feel it. These efforts paid off, and we greatly reduced this kind of emission.

Proven 7y ago

There is no emergency like there wasn't 10 or 20 or 30 years ago. Move on, nothing to see here.

Bantros 7y ago

Yawn

youareostriches 7y ago
imminent human suffering, isn’t it so passé? when’s the next javascript framework?
- Bantros 7y ago
  Keep telling yourself that
  - youareostriches 7y ago
    tell us the future, oh mighty oracle, whose sight is beyond the limits of science and reason, so that we may be enlightened.

SamPatt 7y ago

There are many great scientists in this field and we should take heed of their warnings. But this isn't an example of that happening. This is activism dressed up as science. Their use of charts is a textbook example of how to mislead. https://twitter.com/SamuelPatt/status/1191787079820365830?s=19 https://twitter.com/SamuelPatt/status/1191787079820365830?s=...