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This sort of reminds me of a conversation I had with a guy with a stake in a restaurant close to a major sports arena development where I grew up. It totally ch
by save_ferris 7y ago
This sort of reminds me of a conversation I had with a guy with a stake in a restaurant close to a major sports arena development where I grew up. It totally changed the way I looked at economic impact reports on commercial developments, particularly sports arenas.
The city put up millions in taxpayer funds to get the arena built for the local high-profile college basketball team, and numerous reports were published around the positive economic impact of the stadium, citing increased spending around downtown, etc.
However, the report failed to account for "micro" details that can have a major impact on local business, like traffic congestion, entertainment capacity, etc. On game days, his restaurant is overcrowded and turning away patrons, which negatively impacts his staff and quality of experience. But there are only 15 or so games per year, and the off-season attractions are hit-or-miss in terms of attendance. And when nothing is going on, business is even more varied.
It's relatively easy to calculate how many people come to town for a big event and how much they spend, extrapolating that out to some great figure, but a restaurant can't reasonably rely on ~15 big days per year. Quite often, economic impact reports are commissioned by folks who have business or political interests at stake, thereby overlooking the potential bottlenecks that such developments expose. And because most of the public doesn't understand finance or real estate, and yet they love the basketball team, a more nuanced conversation around the topic is harder to find.
- ouid 7y agoIf you don't follow the sports schedule, then you will inevitably find yourself near some stadium at a time when sports are about to happen, or have just happened. This is a mistake that you will only make once. It sometimes takes upwards of 2 hours to drive 5 miles. Since I don't want to have to follow sports to know if it's safe to drive that route, I just never drive that route. There are good things near there, but I will never plan to do them because I don't want to have to check the arena activity to determine how good my experience will be.
- NikolaNovak 7y agoGood point, made me realize a bit of my own experience - since I moved out of downtown Toronto, the entire area has been a mental black hole to me precisely because on game nights, it can take 2-4 hours to extract yourself out of 3-4km of space, so I just don't risk it (especially since it's the kind of 2 hours that feels like 7...)
- mumblemumble 7y agoIt's a similar experience on foot. One of my favorite local hangouts is in Wrigleyville. I almost never go there, because I won't go anywhere near Wrigleyville during baseball season, and in winter I'm in cocoon mode. That said, baseball season has enough game days to actually fuel a business. Soldier Field is vaguely easier. It's still right in the middle of the city, but, being in a park, and not too far from the highway, game days don't really pose a challenge except when I've lost my mind and decided to drive to the aquarium instead of taking the train. On the other hand, I bet it's really awful for anyone whose regular routine forces them to use Lake Shore Drive or the spaghetti bowl.
- yonaguska 7y agoI actually moonlight at one of those bars in Wrigleyville, the bar closes for the fall/winter because there's literally not enough business to justify keeping it open. The only reason it's still open however is because the owners have plenty of capital from other endeavors. If anyone were to try to start a new bar there without deep pockets, they would have a hard time surviving.
- weberc2 7y agoFor me in Uptown, the Wrigleyville traffic doesn't seem too bad as long as I don't need to be _in_ Wrigleyville itself. The worst part is the Red Line--seems like game times seem to coincide with rush hour such that everyone needs to be going North at the same time. Soldier field traffic was pretty miserable when I lived in South Loop (all that traffic going to/from 90 via Roosevelt).
- enobrev 7y agoFunny, I was about to make a comment about Wrigleyville and you nailed it. We now habitually check if there's a game or concert before visiting my cousin in the neighborhood. A few years back I lived 3 blocks away from Wrigley Field. It was cool to hear the concerts and games from our back porch. But we basically locked ourselves in on game-days, since we knew it would be a pain in the ass to get anywhere.
- jgroszko 7y agoOne of my favorite single-purpose websites: http://isthereacubsgametoday.com/ http://isthereacubsgametoday.com/
- caconym_ 7y ago100%. Usually it's not even clear to me why traffic is so bad... I just have a mental heatmap of averaged-out traffic shittiness and I stay away from the hot spots. Nothing has gotten better in the 15 years I've lived here, and basically everything has gotten worse, so I don't have much incentive to give the worst areas a second chance. It means a lot of my city (Seattle) is off limits unless I'm really "going out" and not just going out for a bite or whatever.
- beerandt 7y agoBecause, as traffic and transportation research is starting to show, traffic is supply-side (capacity) dominated, given time to reach equilibrium in a growing region. It's a great example of a market with a fixed price (excluding some newer ppp toll schemes) and highly variable demand. (And where costs besides the direct price that end up controlling.)
- mikepurvis 7y ago> starting to show I mean, it's good that it's finally hitting the mainstream, but induced demand has been a recognized phenomenon for literally decades: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Induced_demand#History https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Induced_demand#History The reverse of this is what justifies a lot of ped/cycle infrastructure projects even in areas where there don't currently seem to be a lot of people out walking or on foot— "build it and they will come".
- beerandt 7y agoThat's true, but having GPS and being able to do studies that are based on actually tracking vehicles has been a game changer (instead of just point traffic counts or driver questionnaires).
- enobrev 7y agoSeattle's roads were most definitely not built for the amount of traffic they see. I remember watching from my porch as cars spent an hour inching their way through the mile to the 99 when I was living in Lower Queen Anne. This was five years ago. I went back recently and things were far worse.
- thomascgalvin 7y agoI live relatively close to Patriot Stadium, and as a rule I never go down there on Sundays; I try to plan my Trader Joe's runs for Tuesday nights or some other time I'm relatively certain sportsball isn't going to make it a madhouse.
- pcurve 7y agoAs a non-sports person, I never understood our country's obsession, preferential treatment, and worshiping of anything that has to do with NFL, NBA, NHL, and MLB, be it tax subsidies of stadium, cable bundling of sports channel, or looking down on people who are not into sports.
- beart 7y agoI can imagine some Roman citizen saying the same thing at the local market thousands of years ago, in reference to the games.
- TomFrink 7y agoReminds of Juvenal's Satire X: ... Already long ago, from when we sold our vote to no man, the People have abdicated our duties; for the People who once upon a time handed out military command, high civil office, legions — everything, now restrains itself and anxiously hopes for just two things: bread and circuses
- cmrdporcupine 7y agoPolitics itself has become sports, too. Red team or blue team. From up here in Canada the weird fusion of school and sport down there is also bizarre. Yes, people play sports in our schools... but wow is it cultish down there.
- ratsmack 7y agoThis describes the majority of voters which do not have a clue as to what they are voting for, or the platform that their favorite candidate stand on. The just blindly vote the party ticket because that's their team. Generally, it is the swing voters that are more informed on politics and don't necessarily vote the party ticket.
- taborj 7y agoI heard this argument a lot, and perhaps the people I find myself around are abnormal, but I'm trying and failing to come up with people I know who vote along party lines simply because it's one party or the other. Just about everyone has at least one major issue that keeps them from voting the other way, and most have multiple reasons. I guess I have seen something like it, now that I'm thinking about it -- but it's generally a negative condition, i.e. "I'm not voting for X simply because they are part of party Y." They're not necessarily voting for their party because it's their party, but they're doing it because it's not another party, or more specifically, not a particular candidate.
- brenden2 7y agoOne of my favourite examples of how the government moves the goalposts around to make the economy numbers go up is how they removed housing prices from the CPI in 1985. Inflation is often used as a benchmark for economic health, but it completely ignores one of the biggest sources of inflation: the price of homes. The utility of a house never increases (unless you make upgrades), so if the price goes up it's not really more valuable, assuming it rises at the same rate as nearby homes. It's not like you could sell and move into a fancier house nearby.
- wasdfff 7y agoSelling and moving to a fancier place nearby is what many people do. You free up that equity and suddenly you can afford a sizable down payment on a nicer place that you couldn’t otherwise had you been renting the whole time.
- brenden2 7y agoThis is only because most home purchases are fueled by debt.
- rmah 7y agoHousing prices are included in the CPI both for owners and renters. Here's how => https://www.bls.gov/cpi/factsheets/owners-equivalent-rent-and-rent.pdf https://www.bls.gov/cpi/factsheets/owners-equivalent-rent-an...
- hokumguru 7y agoIt's funny - you're describing the city that I'm currently living in, right down to the arena and businesses around it. We've gotten past that phase and now all the local businesses downtown are shutting down because the 2-ish companies that own all the real estate are raising the prices to absurd levels. Our end goal, in the likely near future, is them declaring bankruptcy so we can bail them out as a city and re-zone the retail/entertainment districts to business as originally lobbied.
- ur-whale 7y agohttps://reason.com/tag/stadiums/ https://reason.com/tag/stadiums/ specifically this one: https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=fb3HcuFyDFQ&feature=emb_logo https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=fb3HcuFyDFQ&... With that in mind, there is however a huge difference between a tax break and a govt subsidies.
- duxup 7y agoThe whole sports economic impact mantra is pervasive. I went to a college bowl game recently. They actually printed the amount of economic impact calculated ... on my ticket. And ran those numbers across the jubmotron a number of times. I don't know who they're selling that to because I'm not local or approving anything, so I guess that's what I'm contributing to? yay? I was mildly amused.
- nugget 7y agoIf you build an arena and only use it for 15 games per year then the problem may be the poor design or under-utilization of the asset, not the asset in the first place. There is a huge and lucrative market for all sorts of private and corporate events, and arenas would seem to be desirable venues.
- bluedino 7y agoOur local NFL arena has plenty of off-season events. Football season just ended (since we didn't make the playoffs) But there will be concerts, motorcross, monster trucks, a bridal convention... Not to mention there are a handful of high school/college football events at the stadium
- unapologetic 7y agoIf the arena was actually a profitable/smart enterprise then the billionaires wouldn't mind paying for them.
- kaibee 7y agoI wonder how much of that "increased spending around downtown" came at the cost of decreased spending in the surrounding area(s).
- Koremat6666 7y agoIt eventually boils down to the fact that the whole economy is a very complex thing that can not be planned and secondary impacts are mostly unpredictable.
- npo9 7y agoI wonder what the difference between having an NFL stadium and having a MLB stadium is. MLB plays multiple games a week during a large part of the year, which might provide a more steady bump in traffic instead of occasional tsunamis of people.
- beerandt 7y agoI'm mostly against subsidizing sports venues with public money... That said, you make a mostly valid point, except for one major consideration: most arenas have dozens of smaller events throughout the year: boat shows, rodeos, high school championships, concerts, etc. If he's not drawing in appropriate sized crowds for those events, then it might just be his restaurant is viewed as a novelty or one of last resort. Business owners love to explain how there's nothing wrong with their business model, it's the the externalities or market that's wrong. It can be true, but often it's just self-denial.
- mlyle 7y ago> However, the report failed to account for "micro" details that can have a major impact on local business, like traffic congestion, entertainment capacity, etc. On game days, his restaurant is overcrowded and turning away patrons, which negatively impacts his staff and quality of experience. But there are only 15 or so games per year, and the off-season attractions are hit-or-miss in terms of attendance. And when nothing is going on, business is even more varied. It all depends on the project. Lots of sports arenas are put near business districts that generate a lot of restaurant traffic during weekday lunch but less on the weekends and evenings. In turn, a sporting arena can fill in those times, both with the big games and with other events. > But there are only 15 or so games per year I think you're talking about football, where you can expect 8 games per year at home plus some pre-season, possibly post-season, exhibition, etc. This is unusual, though-- baseball plays 81 games per year at home, basketball plays 41, hockey plays 41, soccer plays 17-- plus preseason, postseason, and exhibition.
- beat 7y agoIn Minneapolis, there's a great bbq place that is right across the street from Vikings Stadium. I'm sure it's great game days, but it's a pain to reach any other time. They're abandoning that location and moving into my residential neighborhood. I'm sure that being in walking distance will change it from a 2-3x/year treat for me to a 2-3x/month treat - and their business will be far more stable.
- bediger4000 7y agoThis was true of downtown Denver, specifically the "LoDo" neighborhood, when the Colorado Rockies baseball team moved to Coors Stadium. Baseball's a little different, there's 76 home games or something, but restaurants were overwhelmed prior to the game, scaring people away. I think Denver has adjusted to this by now. Your points stand, however. 2nd order effects, which we're not used to considering, can be very large sometimes.
- newguy1234 7y agoAs the old saying goes. If the project is not economically viable then you get out of the project building business and get into the selling products/service/labor to the government business. You make more money selling the products/services/labor to the government than you would ever make actually building and owning the asset outright. Which is funny because in countries that have high levels of corruption (Russia), you see those countries building the most expensive roads, stadiums and bridges in the world. More money spent doesn't mean a better road to say the least.
- redis_mlc 7y ago> numerous reports were published around the positive economic impact of the stadium Those are always lies. I follow the Santa Clara City stadium fiasco ... Try dividing $1.2 billion by 116,000 city residents. How do you like those apples? :) To give the voters credit, they only authorized a $400 million bond, but the city council took them for a ride. Shout-out to the York family. Hope you're enjoying your free billion-dollar stadium. I sure would! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Santa_Clara,_California https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Santa_Clara,_California