7 ms·

A few good takes, but China becoming the dominant global power? Not a good take. China is fairly good at a few things, namely lending money and manufacturing g

A few good takes, but China becoming the dominant global power? Not a good take. China is fairly good at a few things, namely lending money and manufacturing goods. What they aren’t good at is making people happy. See Hong Kong for the last 6 months. I don’t think the United States is becoming increasingly isolationist. I think we’ve seen a brief period of these attitudes, but it’s not indicative of the next decade imo. And the author seems to think China will be able to rapidly adapt to change, pointing to global warming. China is the world’s worst source of pollution. I don’t think they’re going to 180, especially since their economy is built on it.

arnaudsm 7y ago
I agree except with your last sentence. They have the biggest total pollution, but their pollution per capita is actually low compared to eastern countries, and they are investing and legislating aggressively for clean tech.
- Phenomenit 7y ago
  Yeah but in this case absolut numbers seem more relevant, per capita will always be low if you're a billion population nation.
  - pulverizer 7y ago
    Since we all live on earth surface, per land area could be a good measure. US ~500 China ~1100 UK ~1500 Germany ~2000 Japan ~2000 South Korea ~4000
- bobx11 7y ago
  That is a logical stat I never hear about and it looks they they are indeed lower than USA and Canada (and the worst, Middle East): https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_... However it’s still far worse than most European countries in the list.
- pedalpete 7y ago
  Furthermore to your point, I don't think we need to look at pollution from a more holistic point of view. How much of the pollution in China is due to them manufacturing and "recycling" goods for the west? Can we look at pollution that has been "offshored" and calculate that into the mix?
  - Vomzor 7y ago
    Mapped: The world’s largest CO2 importers and exporters https://www.carbonbrief.org/mapped-worlds-largest-co2-importers-exporters https://www.carbonbrief.org/mapped-worlds-largest-co2-import... "Despite the large total of CO2 imports and exports, US emissions are only 6% higher and Chinese emissions are 13% lower when CO2 transfers are taken into account." Energy related carbon dioxide emissions peaked in 2007 in the United States [1]. They didn't just get hidden by imports replacing domestic manufacturing. Even incorporating imports into the national balance, US emissions are down from the peak. This is largely due to efficient combined cycle gas turbines replacing coal plants and -- to a lesser but growing extent -- a larger proportion of renewable electricity in the national electricity mix. Chinese carbon dioxide emissions have not peaked yet. As of 2017 (referenced above), 87% of Chinese emissions are attributable to domestic consumption. That should moderate hopes that Chinese emission trends could be reversed by CO2 tariffs. It should also moderate anxiety that Chinese emissions are "really" the offshored emissions of Western consumers. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_gas_emissions_by_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_gas_emissions_by_th... copy/pasted from another thread
asdfasgasdgasdg 7y ago
None of 4, 5, or 6 are at all likely either.
- teleforce 7y ago
  Funny that IMHO prediction 5 is the most likely and followed by prediction 2. Prediction 5 is two decades overdue and Amazon Wavelength it just the beginning. Currently I'm working with on a problem that needs 1 TB RAM data processing and analysis. Given that's not raw data, but if a compulsary real-time technology similar to eVLBI (real-time optional), but it requires immediate processing of raw data that will probably be the killer application for the edge or fog computing. Typical web server hosting has transfer limit of few TB of data per month and Amazon cloud is charging by the bandwidth, the only way forward is to move to the edge. Prediction 2 is quite self evident with the sudden rise of popularity of Elizabeth Warren with her proposed plan for wealthy citizen 2 percents tax [1]. [1]https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/31/2020-dream-candidate-elizabeth-warren-democrats https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/31/2020-d...
jayd16 7y ago
Another interesting aspect is they might need to transition into a focus on their middle class or risk pricing themselves out of the labor market. Politically, I would think thats a bit of a catch 22 for the party. Empowering a large group would weaken the party, I would think.
PacketPaul 7y ago
Watch a lecture by Peter Zeihan on YouTube. His entire thesis is the US is becoming isolationist. But yea I agree with you about China.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
LeftHandPath 7y ago
A lot of the article seems to be based on liberal ideals, which include a less prominent America, the promotion of Veganism, and embracing the fall of the West. For the most part, the author’s expectations about crypto are mistaken in that they assume financiers in the west trust China enough to buy into its digital currency. We are bordering on a Cold War; we aren’t about to trust them to keep their promises on crypto. I think a more moderate take would be suggesting a straddle of the EU - either it strangles itself with clunky bureaucracy, or it becomes more closely unified and a world power in the likes of the US, Russia, or China. Furthermore, I think we could see the United States grow with the additions of Guam, Puerto Rico, and/or Greenland.
- Fauntleroy 7y ago
  In theory the US could add Guam and Puerto Rico... but how would that ever be politically viable? There's no way this is going to happen if one party in a two party system knows it will lead to their doom.
  - burfog 7y ago
    Add two at once. Possibilities include creating West California, West Washington, South Virginia, and South Illinois.
    - bobthepanda 7y ago
      That works for balancing the Senate, but not really the House. Adding PR to the House would significantly reduce the odds of a Republican House given that the current GOP makes a lot of noises that often seem like they're racist against Hispanics.
      - ianai 7y ago
        They don’t seem racist. They ARE racist. They enact racist policies/laws every election and chance they get.
  - thatcat 7y ago
bsder 7y ago
Yeah, the worst thing that could happen to China now is that Li Xinping lives a long life. We have seen over and over in history that an individual dictator fairly quickly diverges from rational paths.
- mistermann 7y ago
  Many patterns have been observed in nature, until an exception occurs that breaks the pattern.
  - bsder 7y ago
    This pattern has, sadly, been pretty reliable over more than 2000 years. In addition, Li Xinping has shown very little enlightenment toward those who would oppose him irrespective of their correctness. This is always the first step down a long dark path.
    - mistermann 7y ago
      Could you convert "pretty reliable" into a percentage?
joyjoyjoy 7y ago
"What they aren’t good at is making people happy. See Hong Kong for the last 6 months." Wrong Chinese people are very happy. In some rankings they belong to the happiest people. Here they are medium range: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2013/09/10/a-fascinating-map-of-the-worlds-happiest-and-least-happy-countries/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2013/09/10... My prediction: We will see an economic depression, also caused by energy problems. The current quantitative easing is actually the first sign of the problems with energy: https://ourfiniteworld.com/2019/09/12/our-energy-and-debt-predicament-in-2019/ https://ourfiniteworld.com/2019/09/12/our-energy-and-debt-pr... PS: The US is also pretty good at making other countries unhappy. Iraq, Afghanistan, Iran to name a few :-)
- hbt 7y ago
  difficult to know the truth when the population answers surveys by picking the right answer instead of giving their true opinion.
- Baeocystin 7y ago
  "How's life in soviet russia?" "Can't complain!" This is the mistake you're making regarding China. Source: grew up there
  - Faark 7y ago
    I mean, yeah, being against those in power isn't a good idea in authoritarian regimes. At the same time, people describe living in former east germany as the most easy-going / carefree time of their life. Being taken care of as long as you do as your told isn't all bad and probably was the default state of the smaller communities in the past. Whish we would find ways to achieve this without the authoritarian aspects.
    - Baeocystin 7y ago
      >At the same time, people describe living in former east germany as the most easy-going / carefree time of their life. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_German_uprising_of_1953 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_German_uprising_of_1953 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Escape_attempts_and_victims_of_the_inner_German_border https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Escape_attempts_and_victims_of... People made the best of the situation they had. There is a reason the links above happened, though, and it wasn't because the system people lived in was easy-going and carefree. Keep in mind that the transitional years, after the governmental collapse, but before western institutions stepped in, were worse than regular life when the eastern systems were functional. Balance that against the thought that the eastern system was unsustainable, and had the west not been able to step in when it did, the results would have been far worse. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Chinese_Famine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Chinese_Famine for an example of what happened in a centralized system that didn't have outside assistance when things collapsed.
qaq 7y ago
China is good at things we are really bad at: building up modern infrastructure fast and at reasonable cost, investing in long term projects (payoff in decades so meaningless for election cycle driven politics in other countries).
- proc0 7y ago
  I doubt China has good infrastructure, which is why they build it so fast. Also it helps to absolute control over your workforce.
  - elamje 7y ago
    They have now have 2/3 of the worlds high speed rail despite starting incredibly late in the game, and not having a ton of people that can afford it. Turns out, in a communist government you can cut through red tape incredibly easily to advance your goals for the party/country. This is common for communist govs, and not democracies. When you believe land ownership should be private, and everyone has a super strong opinion about things, it’s hard to advance infrastructure at a speed commensurate with societies needs. Not an argument for communism, just an observation. Likely lacks some nuance, but just do a bit of research on China’s infra, and their heavy investment in that space.
- thedudeabides5 7y ago
  Also good at giving death penalties for white collar crime. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-27/china-sentences-ex-chairman-of-troubled-hengfeng-bank-to-death https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-27/china-sen... Keep up America!
  - matthewdgreen 7y ago
    Extreme (death penalty) sentencing for corruption is generally not something you see in regimes that have highly effective regimes of anti-corruption enforcement.
    - 7y ago
agumonkey 7y ago
I can never get what China is doing. One day you hear about solar boost then you see more coal. Strange.
Gatsky 7y ago
Are you seriously talking about the China of today? This critique belongs in the 1980s. You can't ignore demographics, just look where the population is. I think it is very hard for us outside of Hong Kong to understand the problem. Speaking to people that live there, (with no reason to be beholden to the PRC), they think it is mainly disenfranchised youth causing problems and dressing up like ninjas (their words not mine) rather than the noble rebellion as portrayed by the media.

arnaudsm 7y ago

I agree except with your last sentence. They have the biggest total pollution, but their pollution per capita is actually low compared to eastern countries, and they are investing and legislating aggressively for clean tech.

Phenomenit 7y ago
Yeah but in this case absolut numbers seem more relevant, per capita will always be low if you're a billion population nation.
- pulverizer 7y ago
  Since we all live on earth surface, per land area could be a good measure. US ~500 China ~1100 UK ~1500 Germany ~2000 Japan ~2000 South Korea ~4000
bobx11 7y ago
That is a logical stat I never hear about and it looks they they are indeed lower than USA and Canada (and the worst, Middle East): https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_... However it’s still far worse than most European countries in the list.
pedalpete 7y ago
Furthermore to your point, I don't think we need to look at pollution from a more holistic point of view. How much of the pollution in China is due to them manufacturing and "recycling" goods for the west? Can we look at pollution that has been "offshored" and calculate that into the mix?
- Vomzor 7y ago
  Mapped: The world’s largest CO2 importers and exporters https://www.carbonbrief.org/mapped-worlds-largest-co2-importers-exporters https://www.carbonbrief.org/mapped-worlds-largest-co2-import... "Despite the large total of CO2 imports and exports, US emissions are only 6% higher and Chinese emissions are 13% lower when CO2 transfers are taken into account." Energy related carbon dioxide emissions peaked in 2007 in the United States [1]. They didn't just get hidden by imports replacing domestic manufacturing. Even incorporating imports into the national balance, US emissions are down from the peak. This is largely due to efficient combined cycle gas turbines replacing coal plants and -- to a lesser but growing extent -- a larger proportion of renewable electricity in the national electricity mix. Chinese carbon dioxide emissions have not peaked yet. As of 2017 (referenced above), 87% of Chinese emissions are attributable to domestic consumption. That should moderate hopes that Chinese emission trends could be reversed by CO2 tariffs. It should also moderate anxiety that Chinese emissions are "really" the offshored emissions of Western consumers. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_gas_emissions_by_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_gas_emissions_by_th... copy/pasted from another thread

asdfasgasdgasdg 7y ago

None of 4, 5, or 6 are at all likely either.

teleforce 7y ago
Funny that IMHO prediction 5 is the most likely and followed by prediction 2. Prediction 5 is two decades overdue and Amazon Wavelength it just the beginning. Currently I'm working with on a problem that needs 1 TB RAM data processing and analysis. Given that's not raw data, but if a compulsary real-time technology similar to eVLBI (real-time optional), but it requires immediate processing of raw data that will probably be the killer application for the edge or fog computing. Typical web server hosting has transfer limit of few TB of data per month and Amazon cloud is charging by the bandwidth, the only way forward is to move to the edge. Prediction 2 is quite self evident with the sudden rise of popularity of Elizabeth Warren with her proposed plan for wealthy citizen 2 percents tax [1]. [1]https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/31/2020-dream-candidate-elizabeth-warren-democrats https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/31/2020-d...

jayd16 7y ago

Another interesting aspect is they might need to transition into a focus on their middle class or risk pricing themselves out of the labor market. Politically, I would think thats a bit of a catch 22 for the party. Empowering a large group would weaken the party, I would think.

PacketPaul 7y ago

Watch a lecture by Peter Zeihan on YouTube. His entire thesis is the US is becoming isolationist. But yea I agree with you about China.

deleted 7y ago
[deleted]

LeftHandPath 7y ago

A lot of the article seems to be based on liberal ideals, which include a less prominent America, the promotion of Veganism, and embracing the fall of the West. For the most part, the author’s expectations about crypto are mistaken in that they assume financiers in the west trust China enough to buy into its digital currency. We are bordering on a Cold War; we aren’t about to trust them to keep their promises on crypto. I think a more moderate take would be suggesting a straddle of the EU - either it strangles itself with clunky bureaucracy, or it becomes more closely unified and a world power in the likes of the US, Russia, or China. Furthermore, I think we could see the United States grow with the additions of Guam, Puerto Rico, and/or Greenland.

Fauntleroy 7y ago
In theory the US could add Guam and Puerto Rico... but how would that ever be politically viable? There's no way this is going to happen if one party in a two party system knows it will lead to their doom.
- burfog 7y ago
  Add two at once. Possibilities include creating West California, West Washington, South Virginia, and South Illinois.
  - bobthepanda 7y ago
    That works for balancing the Senate, but not really the House. Adding PR to the House would significantly reduce the odds of a Republican House given that the current GOP makes a lot of noises that often seem like they're racist against Hispanics.
    - ianai 7y ago
      They don’t seem racist. They ARE racist. They enact racist policies/laws every election and chance they get.
- thatcat 7y ago

bsder 7y ago

Yeah, the worst thing that could happen to China now is that Li Xinping lives a long life. We have seen over and over in history that an individual dictator fairly quickly diverges from rational paths.

mistermann 7y ago
Many patterns have been observed in nature, until an exception occurs that breaks the pattern.
- bsder 7y ago
  This pattern has, sadly, been pretty reliable over more than 2000 years. In addition, Li Xinping has shown very little enlightenment toward those who would oppose him irrespective of their correctness. This is always the first step down a long dark path.
  - mistermann 7y ago
    Could you convert "pretty reliable" into a percentage?

joyjoyjoy 7y ago

"What they aren’t good at is making people happy. See Hong Kong for the last 6 months." Wrong Chinese people are very happy. In some rankings they belong to the happiest people. Here they are medium range: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2013/09/10/a-fascinating-map-of-the-worlds-happiest-and-least-happy-countries/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2013/09/10... My prediction: We will see an economic depression, also caused by energy problems. The current quantitative easing is actually the first sign of the problems with energy: https://ourfiniteworld.com/2019/09/12/our-energy-and-debt-predicament-in-2019/ https://ourfiniteworld.com/2019/09/12/our-energy-and-debt-pr... PS: The US is also pretty good at making other countries unhappy. Iraq, Afghanistan, Iran to name a few :-)

hbt 7y ago
difficult to know the truth when the population answers surveys by picking the right answer instead of giving their true opinion.
Baeocystin 7y ago
"How's life in soviet russia?" "Can't complain!" This is the mistake you're making regarding China. Source: grew up there
- Faark 7y ago
  I mean, yeah, being against those in power isn't a good idea in authoritarian regimes. At the same time, people describe living in former east germany as the most easy-going / carefree time of their life. Being taken care of as long as you do as your told isn't all bad and probably was the default state of the smaller communities in the past. Whish we would find ways to achieve this without the authoritarian aspects.
  - Baeocystin 7y ago
    >At the same time, people describe living in former east germany as the most easy-going / carefree time of their life. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_German_uprising_of_1953 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_German_uprising_of_1953 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Escape_attempts_and_victims_of_the_inner_German_border https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Escape_attempts_and_victims_of... People made the best of the situation they had. There is a reason the links above happened, though, and it wasn't because the system people lived in was easy-going and carefree. Keep in mind that the transitional years, after the governmental collapse, but before western institutions stepped in, were worse than regular life when the eastern systems were functional. Balance that against the thought that the eastern system was unsustainable, and had the west not been able to step in when it did, the results would have been far worse. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Chinese_Famine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Chinese_Famine for an example of what happened in a centralized system that didn't have outside assistance when things collapsed.

qaq 7y ago

China is good at things we are really bad at: building up modern infrastructure fast and at reasonable cost, investing in long term projects (payoff in decades so meaningless for election cycle driven politics in other countries).

proc0 7y ago
I doubt China has good infrastructure, which is why they build it so fast. Also it helps to absolute control over your workforce.
- elamje 7y ago
  They have now have 2/3 of the worlds high speed rail despite starting incredibly late in the game, and not having a ton of people that can afford it. Turns out, in a communist government you can cut through red tape incredibly easily to advance your goals for the party/country. This is common for communist govs, and not democracies. When you believe land ownership should be private, and everyone has a super strong opinion about things, it’s hard to advance infrastructure at a speed commensurate with societies needs. Not an argument for communism, just an observation. Likely lacks some nuance, but just do a bit of research on China’s infra, and their heavy investment in that space.
thedudeabides5 7y ago
Also good at giving death penalties for white collar crime. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-27/china-sentences-ex-chairman-of-troubled-hengfeng-bank-to-death https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-27/china-sen... Keep up America!
- matthewdgreen 7y ago
  Extreme (death penalty) sentencing for corruption is generally not something you see in regimes that have highly effective regimes of anti-corruption enforcement.
  - 7y ago

agumonkey 7y ago

I can never get what China is doing. One day you hear about solar boost then you see more coal. Strange.

Gatsky 7y ago

Are you seriously talking about the China of today? This critique belongs in the 1980s. You can't ignore demographics, just look where the population is. I think it is very hard for us outside of Hong Kong to understand the problem. Speaking to people that live there, (with no reason to be beholden to the PRC), they think it is mainly disenfranchised youth causing problems and dressing up like ninjas (their words not mine) rather than the noble rebellion as portrayed by the media.