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It will be interesting how Boeing/Airbus/traditional carriers react when China fully enters the market with Comac-built/branded planes. Commercial flights of it

It will be interesting how Boeing/Airbus/traditional carriers react when China fully enters the market with Comac-built/branded planes. Commercial flights of its first plane, the C919 are slated for 2021. The whole 737 MAX fiasco really came at a bad time for the US aerospace industry, and if the other comments about Airbus being just as bad culture-wise are true (profits/jobs over serious engineering), then China could really be set up to take a lot of commercial aircraft market share over the coming decades.

seanmcdirmid 7y ago
China is still heavily dependent on Western jet engines and avionics. But they are getting experience building airframes, and they could potentially catch up in a generation or two on that given how slowly that part evolves. They won’t be able to build a 787/350 or even a 777 style carbon fiber airframe overnight, however. There is no reason for the USA to block out Comac if they are flying with Pratt&Whitney or GE/CMF engines or Honeywell flight controls.
- pinkfoot 7y ago
  Yip, and Western sales targets are getting heavily dependent on Chinese purchases.
adventured 7y ago
What happens in that case is simple and obvious: the existing global trade barriers and protectionism will get worse. The US will move to lock Airbus and China out of its massive, wildly profitable domestic airline market through protectionism. Which is exactly what China is guaranteed to do, either directly or indirectly, as it pushes its own airplane manufacturing efforts to the forefront in the pursuit of its economic self-interest. How many Soviet-made jet planes did the US buy from 1950 to 1990?
- igravious 7y ago
  The world was divided into two economic spheres during the Cold War. The difference now with that China is that though some would say that China is capitalist in name only (and they wouldn't be completely inaccurate) it is part of the WTO and thus part of the global capitalist system to some extent. Consider for a moment that exports account for a greater % of its GDP than does the US. Arguably China is much more like Japan of the 80s and Korea of the 90s than the soviets of the 50s. Now, if you look at the parts going into the Comac C919, a huge proportion of the parts are non-Chinese: https://www.scmp.com/business/companies/article/2092656/china-schedules-maiden-flight-c919-passenger-jet-friday https://www.scmp.com/business/companies/article/2092656/chin... Basically the tail, wings, radar cover, fuselage, interior, and assembly is Chinese – everything else is US and EU. (The C929 being co-developed with Russia has a greater percentage of parts home-made – this is exactly how China is ramping up its aircraft carrier development, methodically and incrementally bringing more and more expertise onshore). Buying the C919 when it hits mass production will be like buying a very familiar but cheaper Airbus or Boeing equivalent. Neither Japan nor Korea nor Russia have ever managed to pull this off. Who knows what will happen. Time will tell. Looking to the Soviet past is not a good indicator of what is coming down the pike imho.
- gumby 7y ago
  Well TBF the soviet planes always looked scary even on the ground and my experiences as a passenger on them were not reassuring either. I don't expect the same of 21st century Chinese aircraft.* In addition the US and EU may short-sightedly try to protect their aircraft manufacturers but US+EU are less than 45% of world GDP. Plenty of people will be perfectly satisfied with a Chinese plane when their only choices are all foreign manufacturers. * This isn't to say I want to be first -- I typically wait a few years before flying with a new model, though it's hardly a perfect heuristic: I had no idea the 737-Max wasn't really just another 737.
- jariel 7y ago
  "Which is exactly what China is guaranteed to do" China already de-facto does this in almost every market, so there's nothing new here, really. It'd be nice to have WTO rules actually followed, but I don't think it will be this way.
mensetmanusman 7y ago
It will be blocked from purchase in the U.S. https://www.wired.com/story/us-china-cybertheft-su-bin/ https://www.wired.com/story/us-china-cybertheft-su-bin/
- Iwan-Zotow 7y ago
  So china won't buy boeings (for safety or other reasons), us won't by comacs, seems fair...
  - jessriedel 7y ago
    It's not fair because countries are made of individuals. The Chinese government won't let Chinese companies buy American planes and the American government won't let American companies buy Chinese planes. Both restrictions are unjustified regardless of the existence of the other.
    - jersey 7y ago
      Those Chinese planes are produced by a company wholly owned by the Chinese Communist Party.
- nine_zeros 7y ago
  But the rest of the world (larger than the US) might just want a cheap deal with companies from business friendly countries?
  - mensetmanusman 7y ago
    Yes, China has found it is incredibly effective to just pay individual leaders in Africa to get their business and win bids. I don’t see how the west wins this one
- pinkfoot 7y ago
  You are assuming China cares. Boeing themselves values the Chinese commercial aircraft market at $3T and 8,000 aircraft over over 20 years. Of that 6,000 are single-aisle (737, A320, C919). https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/17/boeing-says-china-needs-to-spend-almost-3-trillion-on-new-planes.html https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/17/boeing-says-china-needs-to-s... Once its certified, they will instruct their companies to buy the C919 in the thousands.
briandear 7y ago
A Chinese airliner? I’d feel safer on a 737 Max flown by a powered parachute pilot.
- dang 7y ago
  Please don't post unsubstantive comments and/or flamebait to HN. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
- mk89 7y ago
  Why? Are they unsafe?
blahyawnblah 7y ago
Does that plane actually fly? The stealth fighter jet they revealed years ago (made from various manufacturer's stolen plans) was nowhere near flying
- yyhhsj0521 7y ago
  Which one are you talking about? The J-20 or FC-31? The J-20 has appeared (and flied and demonstrated its weapon bay) on multiple public air shows where foreign medias were invited. I believe they also have a few squadrons in service already.
  - blahyawnblah 7y ago
    Not sure. I wasn't aware that they have two
inferiorhuman 7y ago
It will be interesting how Boeing/Airbus/traditional carriers react when China fully enters the market with Comac-built/branded planes. Commercial flights of its first plane, the C919 are slated for 2021. Eh, the Chinese aren't a threat despite what McNerney thought. If nothing else the C919 isn't Comac's first attempt at an airliner, the ARJ21 was. Airliners are extremely complex. Take a look at Mitsubishi. They've got experience building planes, turbines, etc. Yet Mitsubishi is still struggling with the MRJ, in large part because the MRJ is the first Japanese built airliner in an extraordinarily long time. As for the Chinese, McDonnell-Douglas sold tooling to the SAIC (now Comac) so that they could build licensed MD-80s (some of which are flying in the US). The tooling was eventually used to develop the ARJ21 and Comac still couldn't make it work well. There are a few ARJs flying in China, but even the domestic airlines don't want them. The Canadians tried their hand at a modern airliner with the C-series, and that pretty much bankrupted Bombardier. China could really be set up to take a lot of commercial aircraft market share over the coming decades. Even if (or when) Comac were magically able to produce a competitive airliner, there's more to selling planes than just building them. Support is a huge issue. The Russians have significant experience successfully building airliners and yet even with western turbofans Sukhoi couldn't find a market for their SuperJet. They sold a few to the Belgians and the Mexicans but those have largely stopped flying. Why? There's no support. Boeing and Airbus have huge support networks all over the globe. Comac has absolutely nothing like this in the works or in place.

It will be interesting how Boeing/Airbus/traditional carriers react when China fully enters the market with Comac-built/branded planes. Commercial flights of its first plane, the C919 are slated for 2021. The whole 737 MAX fiasco really came at a bad time for the US aerospace industry, and if the other comments about Airbus being just as bad culture-wise are true (profits/jobs over serious engineering), then China could really be set up to take a lot of commercial aircraft market share over the coming decades.

seanmcdirmid 7y ago

China is still heavily dependent on Western jet engines and avionics. But they are getting experience building airframes, and they could potentially catch up in a generation or two on that given how slowly that part evolves. They won’t be able to build a 787/350 or even a 777 style carbon fiber airframe overnight, however. There is no reason for the USA to block out Comac if they are flying with Pratt&Whitney or GE/CMF engines or Honeywell flight controls.

pinkfoot 7y ago
Yip, and Western sales targets are getting heavily dependent on Chinese purchases.

adventured 7y ago

What happens in that case is simple and obvious: the existing global trade barriers and protectionism will get worse. The US will move to lock Airbus and China out of its massive, wildly profitable domestic airline market through protectionism. Which is exactly what China is guaranteed to do, either directly or indirectly, as it pushes its own airplane manufacturing efforts to the forefront in the pursuit of its economic self-interest. How many Soviet-made jet planes did the US buy from 1950 to 1990?

igravious 7y ago
The world was divided into two economic spheres during the Cold War. The difference now with that China is that though some would say that China is capitalist in name only (and they wouldn't be completely inaccurate) it is part of the WTO and thus part of the global capitalist system to some extent. Consider for a moment that exports account for a greater % of its GDP than does the US. Arguably China is much more like Japan of the 80s and Korea of the 90s than the soviets of the 50s. Now, if you look at the parts going into the Comac C919, a huge proportion of the parts are non-Chinese: https://www.scmp.com/business/companies/article/2092656/china-schedules-maiden-flight-c919-passenger-jet-friday https://www.scmp.com/business/companies/article/2092656/chin... Basically the tail, wings, radar cover, fuselage, interior, and assembly is Chinese – everything else is US and EU. (The C929 being co-developed with Russia has a greater percentage of parts home-made – this is exactly how China is ramping up its aircraft carrier development, methodically and incrementally bringing more and more expertise onshore). Buying the C919 when it hits mass production will be like buying a very familiar but cheaper Airbus or Boeing equivalent. Neither Japan nor Korea nor Russia have ever managed to pull this off. Who knows what will happen. Time will tell. Looking to the Soviet past is not a good indicator of what is coming down the pike imho.
gumby 7y ago
Well TBF the soviet planes always looked scary even on the ground and my experiences as a passenger on them were not reassuring either. I don't expect the same of 21st century Chinese aircraft.* In addition the US and EU may short-sightedly try to protect their aircraft manufacturers but US+EU are less than 45% of world GDP. Plenty of people will be perfectly satisfied with a Chinese plane when their only choices are all foreign manufacturers. * This isn't to say I want to be first -- I typically wait a few years before flying with a new model, though it's hardly a perfect heuristic: I had no idea the 737-Max wasn't really just another 737.
jariel 7y ago
"Which is exactly what China is guaranteed to do" China already de-facto does this in almost every market, so there's nothing new here, really. It'd be nice to have WTO rules actually followed, but I don't think it will be this way.

mensetmanusman 7y ago

It will be blocked from purchase in the U.S. https://www.wired.com/story/us-china-cybertheft-su-bin/ https://www.wired.com/story/us-china-cybertheft-su-bin/

Iwan-Zotow 7y ago
So china won't buy boeings (for safety or other reasons), us won't by comacs, seems fair...
- jessriedel 7y ago
  It's not fair because countries are made of individuals. The Chinese government won't let Chinese companies buy American planes and the American government won't let American companies buy Chinese planes. Both restrictions are unjustified regardless of the existence of the other.
  - jersey 7y ago
    Those Chinese planes are produced by a company wholly owned by the Chinese Communist Party.
nine_zeros 7y ago
But the rest of the world (larger than the US) might just want a cheap deal with companies from business friendly countries?
- mensetmanusman 7y ago
  Yes, China has found it is incredibly effective to just pay individual leaders in Africa to get their business and win bids. I don’t see how the west wins this one
pinkfoot 7y ago
You are assuming China cares. Boeing themselves values the Chinese commercial aircraft market at $3T and 8,000 aircraft over over 20 years. Of that 6,000 are single-aisle (737, A320, C919). https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/17/boeing-says-china-needs-to-spend-almost-3-trillion-on-new-planes.html https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/17/boeing-says-china-needs-to-s... Once its certified, they will instruct their companies to buy the C919 in the thousands.

briandear 7y ago

A Chinese airliner? I’d feel safer on a 737 Max flown by a powered parachute pilot.

dang 7y ago
Please don't post unsubstantive comments and/or flamebait to HN. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
mk89 7y ago
Why? Are they unsafe?

blahyawnblah 7y ago

Does that plane actually fly? The stealth fighter jet they revealed years ago (made from various manufacturer's stolen plans) was nowhere near flying

yyhhsj0521 7y ago
Which one are you talking about? The J-20 or FC-31? The J-20 has appeared (and flied and demonstrated its weapon bay) on multiple public air shows where foreign medias were invited. I believe they also have a few squadrons in service already.
- blahyawnblah 7y ago
  Not sure. I wasn't aware that they have two

inferiorhuman 7y ago

It will be interesting how Boeing/Airbus/traditional carriers react when China fully enters the market with Comac-built/branded planes. Commercial flights of its first plane, the C919 are slated for 2021. Eh, the Chinese aren't a threat despite what McNerney thought. If nothing else the C919 isn't Comac's first attempt at an airliner, the ARJ21 was. Airliners are extremely complex. Take a look at Mitsubishi. They've got experience building planes, turbines, etc. Yet Mitsubishi is still struggling with the MRJ, in large part because the MRJ is the first Japanese built airliner in an extraordinarily long time. As for the Chinese, McDonnell-Douglas sold tooling to the SAIC (now Comac) so that they could build licensed MD-80s (some of which are flying in the US). The tooling was eventually used to develop the ARJ21 and Comac still couldn't make it work well. There are a few ARJs flying in China, but even the domestic airlines don't want them. The Canadians tried their hand at a modern airliner with the C-series, and that pretty much bankrupted Bombardier. China could really be set up to take a lot of commercial aircraft market share over the coming decades. Even if (or when) Comac were magically able to produce a competitive airliner, there's more to selling planes than just building them. Support is a huge issue. The Russians have significant experience successfully building airliners and yet even with western turbofans Sukhoi couldn't find a market for their SuperJet. They sold a few to the Belgians and the Mexicans but those have largely stopped flying. Why? There's no support. Boeing and Airbus have huge support networks all over the globe. Comac has absolutely nothing like this in the works or in place.