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A lot of really stupid shit is going to happen in 2020, but if Starship makes it to orbit and Crew Dragon successfully launches astronauts, those are the only e

A lot of really stupid shit is going to happen in 2020, but if Starship makes it to orbit and Crew Dragon successfully launches astronauts, those are the only events anyone will remember in 100 years. (Come, on tell me with a straight face you remember anything else important that happened in 1903)

option 7y ago
Don’t want to sound as a fanboy, but IF (and this is a huge if) Elon succeeds on his mission to make humanity a multi-planentary species, he’ll be remembered as a greatest human who has ever lived for a very long time
- Aloha 7y ago
  I'm no Elon fan, and it's a really really big if, but - you're absolutely correct about that if he succeeds completely he'll go down in the same category as Edison or Napoleon.
  - learc83 7y ago
    Napoleon in most of the English speaking world is much more infamous/loathed than admired.
    - option 7y ago
      yes, I’m Russian and, IMHO, napaleon isn’t that far from hitler. Both were mass murderers who valued a lot of silly things above human life
- krapp 7y ago
  If humanity ever does become a multi-planetary species, it will be because Elon contributed to a process that will still require decades, if not centuries, of effort beyond his death to achieve. He will not in any way be solely responsible, or deserving of that level of recognition, although I don't doubt that his fans will consider him as such anyway.
  - option 7y ago
    of course that would be humanity’s effort. But we can only remember leaders
    - krapp 7y ago
      What I'm saying is that, by the time it happens, Elon is going to be a footnote in someone else's story.
      - option 7y ago
        maybe, I hope to see two things in my lifetime: 1) organisms (a single cell or similar) evolved not on Earth and 2) human base on Moon and/or Mars
        krapp 7y ago
        I'd like to see those too, but a base is still a long way from making us a multi-planetary species in any meaningful sense. It's a first step, but it's a first step we've been trying to take since the moon landings. If Elon gets us that far, great... but that doesn't mean he'll be remembered as the greatest human who ever lived, any more than Neil Armstrong or Yuri Gagarin are. To be a multiplanetary species, we'd need large-scale habitats with stable, complex biomes, and planet-scale geo-engineering. Spam in a can isn't going to cut it.
C14L 7y ago
Replace Crew Dragon with Starlink, and I agree.
buboard 7y ago
I still think the Voyagers 1 and 2 are bigger feats. Moon landings were cool as an indirect way to develop ballistic missile technology in such a vast scale that nowadays the world's peace relies on this kind of deterrence - Good. And they gave as huge tech advancements as added benefits. Moon landings in 2020s are vanity projects for billionaires with very diminished added benefits. The apollo program was staggering. The N-th moon landing will be 'meh'
- adventured 7y ago
  You're ignoring the value in making the moon landings routine and instead focusing on the public propaganda value of the nth landing (the "meh" part). The most important part of a technological adoption process is making a thing routine. That's where most of the value is in fact derived. That is true of all technology that is made far less inexpensive and far more routine. We're deriving drastically more value out of space now than we did with Apollo and we're spending a lot less money to do it. That will accelerate. Billionaires perfecting regularly landing on the moon would have a massive benefit of taking a hard-to-accomplish space task and turning it into a common task. It's the exact opposite of being an implied low value vanity project. The ability to then use the moon for manufacturing, storage, basing and experimentation has very large benefits to working on Mars and more broadly in space generally.
  - dwighttk 7y ago
    >You're ignoring the value in making the moon landings routine which is?
    - Paradigma11 7y ago
      Build an industrial moon base with a mass driver. Build a few thousand kinetic impactors in space. Decommision your nuclear weapons which cost 5*10^10$/year. Profit.
  - buboard 7y ago
    there is value to space travel for exploration, but space travel is currently promoted for tourist purposes. There is nothing wrong with that, but companies won't offer anything beyond that because going on a 6 month space trip to mars is torture rather than tourism.
FoxPaw 7y ago
Around that time accessible, rider-friendly bicycles that look like today's were just entering the mainstream. Besides being fun in general, they also accommodated women's fashion and benefited women's safe, solo transportation and gave them a big boost of autonomy at the time.

option 7y ago

Don’t want to sound as a fanboy, but IF (and this is a huge if) Elon succeeds on his mission to make humanity a multi-planentary species, he’ll be remembered as a greatest human who has ever lived for a very long time

Aloha 7y ago
I'm no Elon fan, and it's a really really big if, but - you're absolutely correct about that if he succeeds completely he'll go down in the same category as Edison or Napoleon.
- learc83 7y ago
  Napoleon in most of the English speaking world is much more infamous/loathed than admired.
  - option 7y ago
    yes, I’m Russian and, IMHO, napaleon isn’t that far from hitler. Both were mass murderers who valued a lot of silly things above human life
krapp 7y ago
If humanity ever does become a multi-planetary species, it will be because Elon contributed to a process that will still require decades, if not centuries, of effort beyond his death to achieve. He will not in any way be solely responsible, or deserving of that level of recognition, although I don't doubt that his fans will consider him as such anyway.
- option 7y ago
  of course that would be humanity’s effort. But we can only remember leaders
  - krapp 7y ago
    What I'm saying is that, by the time it happens, Elon is going to be a footnote in someone else's story.
    - option 7y ago
      maybe, I hope to see two things in my lifetime: 1) organisms (a single cell or similar) evolved not on Earth and 2) human base on Moon and/or Mars
      - krapp 7y ago
        I'd like to see those too, but a base is still a long way from making us a multi-planetary species in any meaningful sense. It's a first step, but it's a first step we've been trying to take since the moon landings. If Elon gets us that far, great... but that doesn't mean he'll be remembered as the greatest human who ever lived, any more than Neil Armstrong or Yuri Gagarin are. To be a multiplanetary species, we'd need large-scale habitats with stable, complex biomes, and planet-scale geo-engineering. Spam in a can isn't going to cut it.

C14L 7y ago

Replace Crew Dragon with Starlink, and I agree.

buboard 7y ago

I still think the Voyagers 1 and 2 are bigger feats. Moon landings were cool as an indirect way to develop ballistic missile technology in such a vast scale that nowadays the world's peace relies on this kind of deterrence - Good. And they gave as huge tech advancements as added benefits. Moon landings in 2020s are vanity projects for billionaires with very diminished added benefits. The apollo program was staggering. The N-th moon landing will be 'meh'

adventured 7y ago
You're ignoring the value in making the moon landings routine and instead focusing on the public propaganda value of the nth landing (the "meh" part). The most important part of a technological adoption process is making a thing routine. That's where most of the value is in fact derived. That is true of all technology that is made far less inexpensive and far more routine. We're deriving drastically more value out of space now than we did with Apollo and we're spending a lot less money to do it. That will accelerate. Billionaires perfecting regularly landing on the moon would have a massive benefit of taking a hard-to-accomplish space task and turning it into a common task. It's the exact opposite of being an implied low value vanity project. The ability to then use the moon for manufacturing, storage, basing and experimentation has very large benefits to working on Mars and more broadly in space generally.
- dwighttk 7y ago
  >You're ignoring the value in making the moon landings routine which is?
  - Paradigma11 7y ago
    Build an industrial moon base with a mass driver. Build a few thousand kinetic impactors in space. Decommision your nuclear weapons which cost 5*10^10$/year. Profit.
- buboard 7y ago
  there is value to space travel for exploration, but space travel is currently promoted for tourist purposes. There is nothing wrong with that, but companies won't offer anything beyond that because going on a 6 month space trip to mars is torture rather than tourism.

FoxPaw 7y ago

Around that time accessible, rider-friendly bicycles that look like today's were just entering the mainstream. Besides being fun in general, they also accommodated women's fashion and benefited women's safe, solo transportation and gave them a big boost of autonomy at the time.