6 ms·

It is scary to see how much more China and the CCP can get away with, I'm looking forward to seeing where it will all end up. Probably not in a good place. Mone

by Knufen 7y ago

It is scary to see how much more China and the CCP can get away with, I'm looking forward to seeing where it will all end up. Probably not in a good place. Money talks, morals? Not so much.

dekhn 7y ago
Right now the leadership in China is terrified! They've been able to get away with a lot, basically using their economic power to get other countries to look the other way with regards to their behavior (suppressing their people, stealing IP, bullying smaller nations). but the moment they got called on it and people started moving their operations to other countries (previously considered "impossible"), they saw the economic impact. And they realized that they can't get away with what they're doing if they aren't providing their citizens with a constantly growing economy, their citizens are going to start getting angry again. It's clear now much of the Chinese leadership were a paper tiger and now that the heat is on, they don't really have a strategy. They just never expect enough people to call them out publicly and embarass them. Maybe they'll keep hold of their own country by suppressing information flow, countrywide surveillance, but whatever power they had over the global economy: severely diminished.
- BrandonMarc 7y ago
  Indeed. The "decoupling" phenomenon has their attention.
- Dumblydorr 7y ago
  Their economy is also massively indebted, they got hooked on debt to a degree many here would consider reckless. They've wasted a tremendous amount of money on useless construction, which may be one downfall of a planned economy.
  - dekhn 7y ago
    Agreed. I had a bunch of friends who visited ~5 years ago and were claiming US was so far behind in building that China was going to take over the world. Several went back recently and said "so many ghost towns, what happened?"
  - srajabi 7y ago
    I was intrigued by your comment, so I went looking around: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_external_debt https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_external_... It looks like their debt is only 15% of their GDP? I've heard the China <> Debt thing before and I don't understand it. Could you explain what you mean?
    - bzbarsky 7y ago
      I'm by no means an expert, but my understanding is that China's debt problem is not external debt, but internal debt. To put what the more negative takes are saying in US-related terms it's as if the mortgage-lending practices of the mid-2000s were done on a much larger scale (involving not just housing loans but almost everything funded by borrowing, including industry, infrastructure, etc) and for a much longer time. As a result, there are lots of loans on the books that will never be paid off as things stand, and unlike the US there is no mechanism in the financial system to acknowledge any of that on a gradual basis (loan writedowns, etc), so the loans keep being rolled over instead. At some point, reality will need to be faced, at which point there will be either massive financial system issues, much worse than what the US had going on in 2008, or huge government bailouts. And in the latter case, that implies even more financial repression or taxation, or both, than is already going on, with resulting decreases in economic well-being for urban areas in China, which is the thing that _really_ worries the CCP. If the economy grows faster than the "bad loan" burden, then this problem is basically temporary, and rolling the loans over until the economy has grown enough to just deal with the issue is the right strategy. It's hard to come by plausibly correct (or even unbiased) estimates of either economic growth or the size of the "bad loan" burden, but almost all the estimates I've seen seem to agree that for a long time the "bad loan" burden was growing faster than the economy. Whether that's still the case, I don't know.
- RangerScience 7y ago
  I'm interested in your opinion. Sources?
  - dekhn 7y ago
    A collection of mainstream news sources, various government reports, and speculation.
    - RangerScience 7y ago
      Sorry, I mean, "I am interested in also reading your sources. Do you have any links that come to mind?"
      - dekhn 7y ago
        Mostly Google News, NY Times, I never read Huffington (progressive propaganda) and I read Breitbart to see what the people voting for Trump are rambling about.
busterarm 7y ago
I think long-term it's maybe okay. All of this is a sign that the CCP is losing control of things. Of course their reaction is to tighten up and things are going to get worse before they get better. Unfortunately I do think this means we're going to see some action in the South China Sea region. China has problems to deal with in Hong Kong, Taiwan, North Korea, Xinjiang, Tibet, etc. Eventually one of its neighbors is going to get aspirations and will poke the bear. Hopefully China is spread too-thin to deal with it, although that will mean conflict. Violence will be necessary here.
sp332 7y ago
I don't suppose the lack of legitimacy of the CCP will make anyone more likely to recognize Taiwan? Anybody? Oh, well.
- nobodyandproud 7y ago
  I feel for Taiwan. Whatever hopes the borderline pro-China Taiwanese harbored must’ve been shattered by what is happening in Hong Kong this past year. The true character of China has been revealed: The CCP is power-hungry and don’t feel constrained at all. I would consider it a fight or die situation in slow motion from here on out.
tremblane 7y ago
CCP? What does EVE Online have to do with this?
- mzg 7y ago
  CCP == Chinese Communist Party in this context.
  - tremblane 7y ago
    a) woosh b) It wouldn't be unreasonable to think somebody might mention another MMO developer. thatsthejoke.jpg
    - dvt 7y ago
      Side note: what's going on HN lately with all this pun/troll/meme nonsense? Please leave that stuff on reddit.
      - yellowapple 7y ago
        Side note: what's going on with people believing reddit has some monopoly on puns/trolls/memes and that hacker-types (like the folks who presumably frequent Hacker News) would never find them amusing?
        dvt 7y ago
        I visit HN because it provides more or less serious and intellectually-stimulating conversation with a diverse group of people that have diverse (and sometimes opposing) viewpoints. It's not that funny stuff isn't amusing, it's that it's counter to what HN might be trying to achieve.
        tremblane 7y ago
        A discussion of how this type of event could affect other large MMO developers, such as CCP, could be relevant. There's a large Chinese playerbase in EVE Online. > It's not that funny stuff isn't amusing, it's that it's counter to what HN might be trying to achieve. So, keep it serious. No Having fun. Gotchya.
556343throwaway 7y ago
I would bet their wish would be to have the power to sanction a country and then forbid any other country from doing business with them. Even going as far as being able to arrest foreign executives that break those sanctions.

by Knufen 7y ago

It is scary to see how much more China and the CCP can get away with, I'm looking forward to seeing where it will all end up. Probably not in a good place. Money talks, morals? Not so much.

dekhn 7y ago

Right now the leadership in China is terrified! They've been able to get away with a lot, basically using their economic power to get other countries to look the other way with regards to their behavior (suppressing their people, stealing IP, bullying smaller nations). but the moment they got called on it and people started moving their operations to other countries (previously considered "impossible"), they saw the economic impact. And they realized that they can't get away with what they're doing if they aren't providing their citizens with a constantly growing economy, their citizens are going to start getting angry again. It's clear now much of the Chinese leadership were a paper tiger and now that the heat is on, they don't really have a strategy. They just never expect enough people to call them out publicly and embarass them. Maybe they'll keep hold of their own country by suppressing information flow, countrywide surveillance, but whatever power they had over the global economy: severely diminished.

BrandonMarc 7y ago
Indeed. The "decoupling" phenomenon has their attention.
Dumblydorr 7y ago
Their economy is also massively indebted, they got hooked on debt to a degree many here would consider reckless. They've wasted a tremendous amount of money on useless construction, which may be one downfall of a planned economy.
- dekhn 7y ago
  Agreed. I had a bunch of friends who visited ~5 years ago and were claiming US was so far behind in building that China was going to take over the world. Several went back recently and said "so many ghost towns, what happened?"
- srajabi 7y ago
  I was intrigued by your comment, so I went looking around: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_external_debt https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_external_... It looks like their debt is only 15% of their GDP? I've heard the China <> Debt thing before and I don't understand it. Could you explain what you mean?
  - bzbarsky 7y ago
    I'm by no means an expert, but my understanding is that China's debt problem is not external debt, but internal debt. To put what the more negative takes are saying in US-related terms it's as if the mortgage-lending practices of the mid-2000s were done on a much larger scale (involving not just housing loans but almost everything funded by borrowing, including industry, infrastructure, etc) and for a much longer time. As a result, there are lots of loans on the books that will never be paid off as things stand, and unlike the US there is no mechanism in the financial system to acknowledge any of that on a gradual basis (loan writedowns, etc), so the loans keep being rolled over instead. At some point, reality will need to be faced, at which point there will be either massive financial system issues, much worse than what the US had going on in 2008, or huge government bailouts. And in the latter case, that implies even more financial repression or taxation, or both, than is already going on, with resulting decreases in economic well-being for urban areas in China, which is the thing that _really_ worries the CCP. If the economy grows faster than the "bad loan" burden, then this problem is basically temporary, and rolling the loans over until the economy has grown enough to just deal with the issue is the right strategy. It's hard to come by plausibly correct (or even unbiased) estimates of either economic growth or the size of the "bad loan" burden, but almost all the estimates I've seen seem to agree that for a long time the "bad loan" burden was growing faster than the economy. Whether that's still the case, I don't know.
RangerScience 7y ago
I'm interested in your opinion. Sources?
- dekhn 7y ago
  A collection of mainstream news sources, various government reports, and speculation.
  - RangerScience 7y ago
    Sorry, I mean, "I am interested in also reading your sources. Do you have any links that come to mind?"
    - dekhn 7y ago
      Mostly Google News, NY Times, I never read Huffington (progressive propaganda) and I read Breitbart to see what the people voting for Trump are rambling about.

busterarm 7y ago

I think long-term it's maybe okay. All of this is a sign that the CCP is losing control of things. Of course their reaction is to tighten up and things are going to get worse before they get better. Unfortunately I do think this means we're going to see some action in the South China Sea region. China has problems to deal with in Hong Kong, Taiwan, North Korea, Xinjiang, Tibet, etc. Eventually one of its neighbors is going to get aspirations and will poke the bear. Hopefully China is spread too-thin to deal with it, although that will mean conflict. Violence will be necessary here.

sp332 7y ago

I don't suppose the lack of legitimacy of the CCP will make anyone more likely to recognize Taiwan? Anybody? Oh, well.

nobodyandproud 7y ago
I feel for Taiwan. Whatever hopes the borderline pro-China Taiwanese harbored must’ve been shattered by what is happening in Hong Kong this past year. The true character of China has been revealed: The CCP is power-hungry and don’t feel constrained at all. I would consider it a fight or die situation in slow motion from here on out.

tremblane 7y ago

CCP? What does EVE Online have to do with this?

mzg 7y ago
CCP == Chinese Communist Party in this context.
- tremblane 7y ago
  a) woosh b) It wouldn't be unreasonable to think somebody might mention another MMO developer. thatsthejoke.jpg
  - dvt 7y ago
    Side note: what's going on HN lately with all this pun/troll/meme nonsense? Please leave that stuff on reddit.
    - yellowapple 7y ago
      Side note: what's going on with people believing reddit has some monopoly on puns/trolls/memes and that hacker-types (like the folks who presumably frequent Hacker News) would never find them amusing?
      - dvt 7y ago
        I visit HN because it provides more or less serious and intellectually-stimulating conversation with a diverse group of people that have diverse (and sometimes opposing) viewpoints. It's not that funny stuff isn't amusing, it's that it's counter to what HN might be trying to achieve.
        tremblane 7y ago
        A discussion of how this type of event could affect other large MMO developers, such as CCP, could be relevant. There's a large Chinese playerbase in EVE Online. > It's not that funny stuff isn't amusing, it's that it's counter to what HN might be trying to achieve. So, keep it serious. No Having fun. Gotchya.

556343throwaway 7y ago

I would bet their wish would be to have the power to sanction a country and then forbid any other country from doing business with them. Even going as far as being able to arrest foreign executives that break those sanctions.