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Non-negligible vs non-existent. Are there any proven, even weak, signs of intelligent space-traveling aliens? If so, then yes we should work on that too. The
by nopinsight 7y ago
Non-negligible vs non-existent.
Are there any proven, even weak, signs of intelligent space-traveling aliens? If so, then yes we should work on that too.
The leaderboards above and pervasive computer vision and equity trading systems are some signs.
- nradov 7y agoThe leaderboards above and pervasive computer vision systems are impressive parlor tricks to be sure, but they don't constitute even weak proof of forward progress toward AGI. Some people claim to have seen intelligent space-travelling aliens. Personally I think they're nuts, but it's impossible to absolutely prove that their claims are false.
- nopinsight 7y agoHow about AlphaStar and OpenAI Five, both of which approach human-champion levels in relatively complex environments that take talented people years to train to achieve similar results? There are obvious disadvantages to the current machine approaches, but they nonetheless achieve very good results and beat the vast majority of players of those games.
- nradov 7y agoThose environments are not at all complex. They are highly simplified and constrained with simple rules that bear little relationship to the real world.
- nopinsight 7y agoI wouldn’t say that an environment that takes humans years to master and many hours to comprehend most interactions therein in detail is simple. The rules are not that complex but the interactions between game elements as well as agents are. Those AIs also need to deal with highly trained human opponents. Real-world relevance is orthogonal to complexity.
- scarejunba 7y agoYou’re not going to believe this but I’ve got an AI that can multiply 26 digit numbers way faster than humans who’ve trained for years at the task.
- nopinsight 7y agoThe Kolmogorov complexities of the best programs to solve those two classes of problems, digit multiplication vs Starcraft, are quite different. Edit: We don’t know the best programs, but we can approximate the bounds with some confidence that, unless some paradigm-changing discovery is made, the programs to solve digit multiplication would be significantly simpler. (This is not a formal argument, but the intuition is very strong for most people who study the problems seriously.)
- YeGoblynQueenne 7y agoHow did you calculate the Kolmogorov complexity of those two classes of program?
- neurocline 7y agoI wrote a decent fraction of the code in the original Starcraft, so, yes, I can assure you the Kolmogorov complexity of Starcraft is leaps and bounds above that of multiplication :)
- YeGoblynQueenne 7y agoBut how did you calculate the Kolmogorov complexity of your code? Kolmogorov complexity is a distinct quantity. How did you compute this quantity?
- neurocline 7y agoYou write code. You write the smallest possible amount of code that can solve the problem. The smallest multiprecision multiply is pretty small; I’ve written that. Just for Starcraft pathing alone (the most complex of all the code I wrote in Starcraft) is orders of magnitude more code, even for the smallest possible version that’s not tuned for efficiency. If you’re a purist, you write the programs in MIX and you count ops. Or whatever your preferred Turing Machine is.
- ChuckMcM 7y agoNo sign of aliens, but many other low probability high threat events. Asteroid strike, solar flare, super volcano eruption, interstellar object collision (including wandering brown dwarf stars).