7 ms·

Chile’s attempts to move up the lithium value chain are not working

80 points by s_Hogg 7y ago

s_Hogg 7y ago
This is kind of interesting, because import substitution was what Latin America tried more or less as a whole back in the 80s. It didn't work particularly well then, which leaves the question of what to do now?
- eru 7y ago
  Didn't that also involve lots of tariffs? > It didn't work particularly well then, [...] Yes, the government (or some other institution) picking winners doesn't really have a good track record in general. > [...], which leaves the question of what to do now? Basically the same as always: simplify local regulations, lower barriers to entry both to foreign people, ideas and capital, and also to local outsider who want to break into existing industries. Or to make it shorter and more pragramatic: look at what Singapore did when they were at the same stage of development.
  - paol 7y ago
    > Didn't that also involve lots of tariffs? That's how import substitution works. > Yes, the government (or some other institution) picking winners doesn't really have a good track record in general. Import substitution isn't about picking winners, it's about forcing local industry to pick up the demand. > look at what Singapore did when they were at the same stage of development. A city-state is a completely irrelevant comparison to an entire continent. PS I don't know if import substitution was a good strategy for south american contries to follow. As pointed out, it didn't work very well for them. It did work in other places at other times.
    - thanatropism 7y ago
      Tariffs, subsidies or the State taking on equity in private corporations. Or just starting state-owned companies (wololo). As long as you can distribute the costs of propping up unprofitable business lines throughout a large unorganized mass that doesn't even know why they're poor.
    - marcosdumay 7y ago
      Import substitution is when the local population creates competitors for some steps on a production chain, replacing a foreign industry piece by piece. The process is caused by relative advantages that say that an industrializing population must create something, so a mature market is the most likely place to go. Tariffs have no direct relation to it, and are a large indirect hindrance, since the entire process requires a mature importing market.
      - eru 7y ago
        I was trying to use 'import substitution' like that as well. And that is a useful concept. But since eg Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Import_substitution_industrialization https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Import_substitution_industrial...) only uses the term in the other meaning, I'm going to concede the term. Let's find a different term to describe the process 'local population creates competitors for some steps on a production chain, replacing a foreign industry piece by piece. [...]'
    - eru 7y ago
      > A city-state is a completely irrelevant comparison to an entire continent. Well, breaking the countries on the continent up into city states might be one way to go, if you think that a smaller scale is more conductive to good policy.
  - wffurr 7y ago
    Or look at what China, the US, or basically any other industrialized nation did at the same stage of development. The government levied tariffs and gave out subsidies to support local industry even when it was less economic to do so.
    - seanmcdirmid 7y ago
      Chile has almost twice China’s gdp/capita already (15k vs 8k). Granted, Chile has been stuck in the middle income trap for a very very long time, but China could always get stuck there as well.
    - taffer 7y ago
      The argument is that those countries (e.g. Taiwan) with lower tariffs were more successful, compared to their peers at the same time.
  - Pxtl 7y ago
    Government having barriers up to foreign products and protecting industries seems to have worked out for China.
    - airstrike 7y ago
      China has a massive population (and arguably better location than Chile) so it could provide cheap labor during this most important moment in the late 20th century when economies became global And it did so by reducing local regulation so that said labor could remain cheap
      - pytester 7y ago
        It's funny that we have people in this thread arguing that the same policy worked for both Singapore and China and others arguing that Singapore is too small to be relevant to Chile's experience while China is too large.
      - Pxtl 7y ago
        Many countries have low-to-no regulation and cheap labour, and they remain poor. China also made a concerted effort to keep its currency artificially low so that Chinese labour would remain cheap and Chinese people would be discouraged from buying foreign-made goods. While more subtle than tariffs, the effect was protectionist.
        taffer 7y ago
        Many countries have higher tariffs and trade barriers, and they remain poor.
        eru 7y ago
        > Many countries have low-to-no regulation and cheap labour, and they remain poor. Please name some. And to be clear, it's the amount and _complexity_ of interference in practice that counts. Ie both in India and China bribes were common, but from what I heard in China your company actually got what they were promised after paying the bribe.
    - 7y ago
  - seanmcdirmid 7y ago
    Singapore is a small completely urban city state that had plenty of capital and human resources and almost no natural resources. How did it resemble anything about Chile today?
    - sanxiyn 7y ago
      > Singapore ... had plenty of capital Citation needed. Singapore was GDP per capita <$300 poor country without capital in 1960s.
      - seanmcdirmid 7y ago
        They had a lot of rich Chinese refugees from the time along with a British colonial legacy. It isn’t that different from Hong Kong’s rise.
  - sanxiyn 7y ago
    > Look at what Singapore did So, establish state-owned enterprise for oil industry, like Singapore National Oil Corporation. Chile did follow this lesson and established Codelco.
    - primroot 7y ago
      This of course partially lead to economic sanctions, and a coup. Chileans initially were made to pay dearly for such insolence.
      - sanxiyn 7y ago
        Codelco was the right choice, even after counting sanctions.
        primroot 7y ago
        Agreed. That's why I said "initially." Sanctions ended when the Chicago Boys were in charge of economic policy, but still did not convince the military dictatorship to hand Codelco to private control.
      - blargmaster33 7y ago
        I assume that by coup you are referring to how Pinochet FUCKING SAVED Chille from communism!!! Pinochet did nothing wrong!
    - taffer 7y ago
      How much has the SPC contributed to Singapore's economy? How much have foreign oil, chemical and electronics companies contributed to Singapore's economy?
      - eru 7y ago
        The comparison that comes to mind is Brunei, which had much more oil and did much better than Singapore up to the 1970s, but was mostly closed to outsiders. Singapore's success mostly rested on inviting foreign companies. I suspect Singapore got away with some state owned companies for a few different reasons. Partly, because Singapore is so small, they can not afford to run too many inefficient state owned companies. So there's skin in the game. Partly also, because they seem to have had unusually competent administration. Also keep in mind, that even with all the state owned companies and government added together, the public share of GDP is much lower than in most western countries. I said somewhat flippantly that you should look at Singapore for a guide. After their sudden independence, Singapore itself looked towards Hong Kong for guidance.
- marcosdumay 7y ago
  Import substitution is what Asia countries did to become rich. Latin America countries adopted the name as propaganda for our protectionist programs (one of the necessary components of import substitution is imports). Chile did some of the real thing, but for the most part, Latin America never practiced it.
baybal2 7y ago
Cluster effect in action: 1. If refining lithium only required local input, it would've made sense to refine it locally, and ship to China after that. 2. In real life, you need to import plant equipment and chemicals by tonnes from China, that makes the final product of local refinement too expensive for Chinese.
lordgrenville 7y ago
It's the guano story all over again!
panpanna 7y ago
This could also be plain bad timing. There has been some breakthroughs for using aluminum in high voltage applications. That could have had a negative impact on investments.
pfdietz 7y ago
Chile should focus on exploiting their solar resource. The best area on the planet for solar energy is in their country (and Peru).
- jeffreyrogers 7y ago
  It's hard to export electricity though. Probably better for economic development to focus on industries that can export.
  - marcosdumay 7y ago
    So what? If you make electricity cheap, somebody will put it to good use, and whether it's exported or not, you are improving people's lives.
    - bakuninsbart 7y ago
      They should at least be a major international proponent of CO2 taxes and improve their chances of becoming a valuable relocation target for energy-intensive industries.
    - BurningFrog 7y ago
      Iceland already has those industries.
  - scythe 7y ago
    But if you have plenty of cheap electricity, you can export energy-intensive goods, like aluminum, where the cost of production is dominated by energy consumption
- sremani 7y ago
  >> The best area on the planet for solar energy Passes my Global Solar Atlas check. The problem could be the panels must be high up on Andes mountains and moving electricity or goods could be a problem.
  - 7y ago
samstave 7y ago
I thought Bolivia and Afghanistan were the leaders in lithium
- taffer 7y ago
  According to [1] Australia and Chile prduce most lithium. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium
- longemen3000 7y ago
  It's important to note the difference between the two main sources of lithium. Chile and Bolivia has lithium in the form of brines (mainly Lithium Cloride, high concentration, relatively easy to extract) and ores (pegmatite, hard to extract, as requires mechanical work to grind the rock). the region of the north of Chile, Bolivia and Argentina has the mayority of reserves of the world, following by Afghanistan. Australia has a lot of pegmatite.
  - samstave 7y ago
    Thank you, and seriously; how the heck do you this? (I just want to know how someone learns this information to begin with)
    - longemen3000 7y ago
      i'm a chemical engineer from chile, so at least i have to know something about local minery, right?
      - samstave 7y ago
        What do you engineer, I want to know more abt you
scythe 7y ago
South America has always had a brain-drain problem. The best universities in SA are... not globally notable. Widespread suspicion of academia, fostered by both conservative Christian parties and populist socialist ones, makes it difficult for South American universities to thrive and compete internationally. Many people draw comparisons to Southeast Asia and Korea, major recent success stories — there, scholarly professions and institutions are more respected, which, I think, has helped high-tech industries catch up to the OECD more rapidly than their South American counterparts.
neonate 7y ago
https://outline.com/HBFgk3 https://outline.com/HBFgk3

80 points by s_Hogg 7y ago

This is kind of interesting, because import substitution was what Latin America tried more or less as a whole back in the 80s. It didn't work particularly well then, which leaves the question of what to do now?

eru 7y ago
Didn't that also involve lots of tariffs? > It didn't work particularly well then, [...] Yes, the government (or some other institution) picking winners doesn't really have a good track record in general. > [...], which leaves the question of what to do now? Basically the same as always: simplify local regulations, lower barriers to entry both to foreign people, ideas and capital, and also to local outsider who want to break into existing industries. Or to make it shorter and more pragramatic: look at what Singapore did when they were at the same stage of development.
- paol 7y ago
  > Didn't that also involve lots of tariffs? That's how import substitution works. > Yes, the government (or some other institution) picking winners doesn't really have a good track record in general. Import substitution isn't about picking winners, it's about forcing local industry to pick up the demand. > look at what Singapore did when they were at the same stage of development. A city-state is a completely irrelevant comparison to an entire continent. PS I don't know if import substitution was a good strategy for south american contries to follow. As pointed out, it didn't work very well for them. It did work in other places at other times.
  - thanatropism 7y ago
    Tariffs, subsidies or the State taking on equity in private corporations. Or just starting state-owned companies (wololo). As long as you can distribute the costs of propping up unprofitable business lines throughout a large unorganized mass that doesn't even know why they're poor.
  - marcosdumay 7y ago
    Import substitution is when the local population creates competitors for some steps on a production chain, replacing a foreign industry piece by piece. The process is caused by relative advantages that say that an industrializing population must create something, so a mature market is the most likely place to go. Tariffs have no direct relation to it, and are a large indirect hindrance, since the entire process requires a mature importing market.
    - eru 7y ago
      I was trying to use 'import substitution' like that as well. And that is a useful concept. But since eg Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Import_substitution_industrialization https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Import_substitution_industrial...) only uses the term in the other meaning, I'm going to concede the term. Let's find a different term to describe the process 'local population creates competitors for some steps on a production chain, replacing a foreign industry piece by piece. [...]'
  - eru 7y ago
    > A city-state is a completely irrelevant comparison to an entire continent. Well, breaking the countries on the continent up into city states might be one way to go, if you think that a smaller scale is more conductive to good policy.
- wffurr 7y ago
  Or look at what China, the US, or basically any other industrialized nation did at the same stage of development. The government levied tariffs and gave out subsidies to support local industry even when it was less economic to do so.
  - seanmcdirmid 7y ago
    Chile has almost twice China’s gdp/capita already (15k vs 8k). Granted, Chile has been stuck in the middle income trap for a very very long time, but China could always get stuck there as well.
  - taffer 7y ago
    The argument is that those countries (e.g. Taiwan) with lower tariffs were more successful, compared to their peers at the same time.
- Pxtl 7y ago
  Government having barriers up to foreign products and protecting industries seems to have worked out for China.
  - airstrike 7y ago
    China has a massive population (and arguably better location than Chile) so it could provide cheap labor during this most important moment in the late 20th century when economies became global And it did so by reducing local regulation so that said labor could remain cheap
    - pytester 7y ago
      It's funny that we have people in this thread arguing that the same policy worked for both Singapore and China and others arguing that Singapore is too small to be relevant to Chile's experience while China is too large.
    - Pxtl 7y ago
      Many countries have low-to-no regulation and cheap labour, and they remain poor. China also made a concerted effort to keep its currency artificially low so that Chinese labour would remain cheap and Chinese people would be discouraged from buying foreign-made goods. While more subtle than tariffs, the effect was protectionist.
      - taffer 7y ago
        Many countries have higher tariffs and trade barriers, and they remain poor.
      - eru 7y ago
        > Many countries have low-to-no regulation and cheap labour, and they remain poor. Please name some. And to be clear, it's the amount and _complexity_ of interference in practice that counts. Ie both in India and China bribes were common, but from what I heard in China your company actually got what they were promised after paying the bribe.
  - 7y ago
- seanmcdirmid 7y ago
  Singapore is a small completely urban city state that had plenty of capital and human resources and almost no natural resources. How did it resemble anything about Chile today?
  - sanxiyn 7y ago
    > Singapore ... had plenty of capital Citation needed. Singapore was GDP per capita <$300 poor country without capital in 1960s.
    - seanmcdirmid 7y ago
      They had a lot of rich Chinese refugees from the time along with a British colonial legacy. It isn’t that different from Hong Kong’s rise.
- sanxiyn 7y ago
  > Look at what Singapore did So, establish state-owned enterprise for oil industry, like Singapore National Oil Corporation. Chile did follow this lesson and established Codelco.
  - primroot 7y ago
    This of course partially lead to economic sanctions, and a coup. Chileans initially were made to pay dearly for such insolence.
    - sanxiyn 7y ago
      Codelco was the right choice, even after counting sanctions.
      - primroot 7y ago
        Agreed. That's why I said "initially." Sanctions ended when the Chicago Boys were in charge of economic policy, but still did not convince the military dictatorship to hand Codelco to private control.
    - blargmaster33 7y ago
      I assume that by coup you are referring to how Pinochet FUCKING SAVED Chille from communism!!! Pinochet did nothing wrong!
  - taffer 7y ago
    How much has the SPC contributed to Singapore's economy? How much have foreign oil, chemical and electronics companies contributed to Singapore's economy?
    - eru 7y ago
      The comparison that comes to mind is Brunei, which had much more oil and did much better than Singapore up to the 1970s, but was mostly closed to outsiders. Singapore's success mostly rested on inviting foreign companies. I suspect Singapore got away with some state owned companies for a few different reasons. Partly, because Singapore is so small, they can not afford to run too many inefficient state owned companies. So there's skin in the game. Partly also, because they seem to have had unusually competent administration. Also keep in mind, that even with all the state owned companies and government added together, the public share of GDP is much lower than in most western countries. I said somewhat flippantly that you should look at Singapore for a guide. After their sudden independence, Singapore itself looked towards Hong Kong for guidance.
marcosdumay 7y ago
Import substitution is what Asia countries did to become rich. Latin America countries adopted the name as propaganda for our protectionist programs (one of the necessary components of import substitution is imports). Chile did some of the real thing, but for the most part, Latin America never practiced it.

baybal2 7y ago

Cluster effect in action: 1. If refining lithium only required local input, it would've made sense to refine it locally, and ship to China after that. 2. In real life, you need to import plant equipment and chemicals by tonnes from China, that makes the final product of local refinement too expensive for Chinese.

lordgrenville 7y ago

It's the guano story all over again!

panpanna 7y ago

This could also be plain bad timing. There has been some breakthroughs for using aluminum in high voltage applications. That could have had a negative impact on investments.

pfdietz 7y ago

Chile should focus on exploiting their solar resource. The best area on the planet for solar energy is in their country (and Peru).

jeffreyrogers 7y ago
It's hard to export electricity though. Probably better for economic development to focus on industries that can export.
- marcosdumay 7y ago
  So what? If you make electricity cheap, somebody will put it to good use, and whether it's exported or not, you are improving people's lives.
  - bakuninsbart 7y ago
    They should at least be a major international proponent of CO2 taxes and improve their chances of becoming a valuable relocation target for energy-intensive industries.
  - BurningFrog 7y ago
    Iceland already has those industries.
- scythe 7y ago
  But if you have plenty of cheap electricity, you can export energy-intensive goods, like aluminum, where the cost of production is dominated by energy consumption
sremani 7y ago
>> The best area on the planet for solar energy Passes my Global Solar Atlas check. The problem could be the panels must be high up on Andes mountains and moving electricity or goods could be a problem.
- 7y ago

samstave 7y ago

I thought Bolivia and Afghanistan were the leaders in lithium

taffer 7y ago
According to [1] Australia and Chile prduce most lithium. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium
longemen3000 7y ago
It's important to note the difference between the two main sources of lithium. Chile and Bolivia has lithium in the form of brines (mainly Lithium Cloride, high concentration, relatively easy to extract) and ores (pegmatite, hard to extract, as requires mechanical work to grind the rock). the region of the north of Chile, Bolivia and Argentina has the mayority of reserves of the world, following by Afghanistan. Australia has a lot of pegmatite.
- samstave 7y ago
  Thank you, and seriously; how the heck do you this? (I just want to know how someone learns this information to begin with)
  - longemen3000 7y ago
    i'm a chemical engineer from chile, so at least i have to know something about local minery, right?
    - samstave 7y ago
      What do you engineer, I want to know more abt you

scythe 7y ago

South America has always had a brain-drain problem. The best universities in SA are... not globally notable. Widespread suspicion of academia, fostered by both conservative Christian parties and populist socialist ones, makes it difficult for South American universities to thrive and compete internationally. Many people draw comparisons to Southeast Asia and Korea, major recent success stories — there, scholarly professions and institutions are more respected, which, I think, has helped high-tech industries catch up to the OECD more rapidly than their South American counterparts.

neonate 7y ago

https://outline.com/HBFgk3 https://outline.com/HBFgk3