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Yet $TSLA has lost ~5% in after hours trading. Wat.png Edit: Wasn't aware of the 100k expectation.

by HenryKissinger 7y ago

dv_dt 7y ago
The broad market was down almost 2% today, and Tesla is a higher alpha stock.
- mandeepj 7y ago
  "After hours" effect is mostly from the earnings report
- cma 7y ago
  Most of the move was after hours when this report was released. Tesla was only down .6% during the day, despite the higher alpha and the market being down 2%.
- kpommerenke 7y ago
  Do you mean that Tesla is a higher beta stock? According to Yahoo Finance, its beta is actually only 0.33. Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/key-statistics?p=TSLA https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/key-statistics?p=TSLA
  - dv_dt 7y ago
    Yes beta, and surprising on the actual beta. It seems my assumption was wrong.
rbf 7y ago
I guess 100k deliveries was the magic number investors were hoping for.
- imglorp 7y ago
  And where did they get that number from?
  - newnewpdro 7y ago
    Elon Musk
  - bonestamp2 7y ago
    A number of sources are reporting that Musk said it in an email to employees: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-26/tesla-surges-after-musk-tells-staff-100-000-deliveries-possible https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-26/tesla-sur...
    - Robotbeat 7y ago
      On the contrary, he said "had a shot" at 100k, which implies it's unlikely but possible.
      - bonestamp2 7y ago
        Fair enough, I was just answering where the number came from.
- microtherion 7y ago
  … and not entirely unreasonably so, given that Elon Musk teased that number as late as last week: “We have a shot at achieving our first 100,000 vehicle delivery quarter,” https://www.sbsun.com/2019/09/26/business-briefly-tesla-surges-after-musk-says-100000-delivery-quarter-possible/ https://www.sbsun.com/2019/09/26/business-briefly-tesla-surg...
  - Robotbeat 7y ago
    It is unreasonable. "Have a shot" implies it's unlikely to occur.
    - FireBeyond 7y ago
      I don't think it implies that at all. To me, having a shot means that it's entirely in the realm of probability. "He breaks clear of the defender and has a shot at goal" doesn't imply "it's unlikely to happen", but there's a notable chance of it.
ancorevard 7y ago
Lower volume than expected.
pembrook 7y ago
Remember, stocks don't move based on headlines. They move based on expectations. If the market priced the stock based on an expectation they'd deliver 100,000 vehicles, 97,000 is a miss.
- millettjon 7y ago
  If the expectation was 100,000 then that was based on the headlines of Elon's leaked email...
mandeepj 7y ago
for analysts, it's always "fewer-than-expected" https://finance.yahoo.com/m/6d74ee60-9cf8-33a6-96ef-133909a1f6e8/tesla-delivers.html https://finance.yahoo.com/m/6d74ee60-9cf8-33a6-96ef-133909a1...
- xkjkls 7y ago
  Unless it is more than expected.
  - ip26 7y ago
    Right, then it's "fewer-than-hoped"
    - xkjkls 7y ago
      No, then it’s “more than expected”. Wall Street has been a bull market for 10 straight years. If anything analysts are considerably charitable to companies
- oneplane 7y ago
  might as well call them pessimistic educated guessers.
xkjkls 7y ago
Elon claimed they had a chance at 100,000 a few days ago. Based on that this isn't meeting expectations. Also, the revenue is what matters and the breakdown of 3 vs S vs X indicates they will have significantly lower ASPs and probably will post a YoY revenue decline. That's not great.
- Robotbeat 7y ago
  Are people really unable to tell the difference between when something is possible versus when it's likely? Maybe it's just my perspective as a physicist, but the gulf between those two things can be immense. Considering the factory coming online very soon, I think the situation is looking pretty good, actually.
  - xkjkls 7y ago
    Why do we think they are production limited instead of demand limited? They’ve had to lower ASPs for close to 5 consecutive quarters. That’s not indicative of production constrained.
    - Robotbeat 7y ago
      Having to ship cars to the other side of the planet to the largest electric car market on the planet and pay super high import duties while not having access to local labor (etc) seems like a pretty thorough ball-and-chain on prices compared to what GF3 will enable. Additionally, they have a significant update to the high end Model S & X coming (three motors), the 2020 Roadster, the Model Y, the Semi, and the Pickup all announced, some of which likely has suppressed demand for their current offerings, which they've been too busy ramping up Model 3 production for to ship. So I think demand is not a problem. And considering they're doing this at a time when their EV credit is nearly completely gone and gas prices are at a near-all-time-low, I think they're doing remarkably well. ...especially considering they don't have a moderately-priced SUV/truck/crossover available yet. None of the top 6 best-selling cars/trucks in the US are actual cars. Model 3 is doing remarkably well considering it's not an SUV, crossover, or a truck.

Yet $TSLA has lost ~5% in after hours trading. Wat.png Edit: Wasn't aware of the 100k expectation.

dv_dt 7y ago

The broad market was down almost 2% today, and Tesla is a higher alpha stock.

mandeepj 7y ago
"After hours" effect is mostly from the earnings report
cma 7y ago
Most of the move was after hours when this report was released. Tesla was only down .6% during the day, despite the higher alpha and the market being down 2%.
kpommerenke 7y ago
Do you mean that Tesla is a higher beta stock? According to Yahoo Finance, its beta is actually only 0.33. Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/key-statistics?p=TSLA https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/key-statistics?p=TSLA
- dv_dt 7y ago
  Yes beta, and surprising on the actual beta. It seems my assumption was wrong.

rbf 7y ago

I guess 100k deliveries was the magic number investors were hoping for.

imglorp 7y ago
And where did they get that number from?
- newnewpdro 7y ago
  Elon Musk
- bonestamp2 7y ago
  A number of sources are reporting that Musk said it in an email to employees: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-26/tesla-surges-after-musk-tells-staff-100-000-deliveries-possible https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-26/tesla-sur...
  - Robotbeat 7y ago
    On the contrary, he said "had a shot" at 100k, which implies it's unlikely but possible.
    - bonestamp2 7y ago
      Fair enough, I was just answering where the number came from.
microtherion 7y ago
… and not entirely unreasonably so, given that Elon Musk teased that number as late as last week: “We have a shot at achieving our first 100,000 vehicle delivery quarter,” https://www.sbsun.com/2019/09/26/business-briefly-tesla-surges-after-musk-says-100000-delivery-quarter-possible/ https://www.sbsun.com/2019/09/26/business-briefly-tesla-surg...
- Robotbeat 7y ago
  It is unreasonable. "Have a shot" implies it's unlikely to occur.
  - FireBeyond 7y ago
    I don't think it implies that at all. To me, having a shot means that it's entirely in the realm of probability. "He breaks clear of the defender and has a shot at goal" doesn't imply "it's unlikely to happen", but there's a notable chance of it.

ancorevard 7y ago

Lower volume than expected.

pembrook 7y ago

Remember, stocks don't move based on headlines. They move based on expectations. If the market priced the stock based on an expectation they'd deliver 100,000 vehicles, 97,000 is a miss.

millettjon 7y ago
If the expectation was 100,000 then that was based on the headlines of Elon's leaked email...

mandeepj 7y ago

for analysts, it's always "fewer-than-expected" https://finance.yahoo.com/m/6d74ee60-9cf8-33a6-96ef-133909a1f6e8/tesla-delivers.html https://finance.yahoo.com/m/6d74ee60-9cf8-33a6-96ef-133909a1...

xkjkls 7y ago
Unless it is more than expected.
- ip26 7y ago
  Right, then it's "fewer-than-hoped"
  - xkjkls 7y ago
    No, then it’s “more than expected”. Wall Street has been a bull market for 10 straight years. If anything analysts are considerably charitable to companies
oneplane 7y ago
might as well call them pessimistic educated guessers.

xkjkls 7y ago

Elon claimed they had a chance at 100,000 a few days ago. Based on that this isn't meeting expectations. Also, the revenue is what matters and the breakdown of 3 vs S vs X indicates they will have significantly lower ASPs and probably will post a YoY revenue decline. That's not great.

Robotbeat 7y ago
Are people really unable to tell the difference between when something is possible versus when it's likely? Maybe it's just my perspective as a physicist, but the gulf between those two things can be immense. Considering the factory coming online very soon, I think the situation is looking pretty good, actually.
- xkjkls 7y ago
  Why do we think they are production limited instead of demand limited? They’ve had to lower ASPs for close to 5 consecutive quarters. That’s not indicative of production constrained.
  - Robotbeat 7y ago
    Having to ship cars to the other side of the planet to the largest electric car market on the planet and pay super high import duties while not having access to local labor (etc) seems like a pretty thorough ball-and-chain on prices compared to what GF3 will enable. Additionally, they have a significant update to the high end Model S & X coming (three motors), the 2020 Roadster, the Model Y, the Semi, and the Pickup all announced, some of which likely has suppressed demand for their current offerings, which they've been too busy ramping up Model 3 production for to ship. So I think demand is not a problem. And considering they're doing this at a time when their EV credit is nearly completely gone and gas prices are at a near-all-time-low, I think they're doing remarkably well. ...especially considering they don't have a moderately-priced SUV/truck/crossover available yet. None of the top 6 best-selling cars/trucks in the US are actual cars. Model 3 is doing remarkably well considering it's not an SUV, crossover, or a truck.