4 ms·

Thanks for being a realist. All the significant "competitors" domestically are arms of the Chinese state. Tesla's calculations have to be aware of that.

afterburner 7y ago
> Tesla's calculations have to be aware of that. Ehn, everyone seems prone to short term thinking.
dmix 7y ago
Most Android phones are made in China, many by Chinese companies. Yet iPhones are still popular there. I don’t see why Tesla can’t do the same as the more upmarket brand. Have any of the Chinese companies come close to designing something as nice as any of the Tesla cars?
- seanmcdirmid 7y ago
  This. Tesla Model S’s are going to those who would be driving black Audi A6s anyways. There isn’t Chinese brand loyalty in the high end car market, no one thinks any BYD can substitute for a BMW, Mercedes, or Audi. Note all these are already made in China anyways.
  - sjtindell 7y ago
    I would almost think that the higher end of Chinese consumers, educated in other countries and working for international firms, might even prefer non-Chinese brands.
    - dmix 7y ago
      Which is also why iPhones are popular there. American plus expensive is cool. It also doesn’t hurt that they are the best phones around and Tesla 3 seems to be doing pretty well in their market position with their unique cars which stand out.
narrator 7y ago
Elon has said that the key Tesla technology is the factories. The battery factory and the car factory that they are constantly evolving. That's much harder to replicate in China, mainly because those companies can operate very inefficiently thanks to State sponsorship. https://cleantechnica.com/2018/06/30/automating-intelligently-is-teslas-manufacturing-advantage/ https://cleantechnica.com/2018/06/30/automating-intelligentl...
- Faark 7y ago
  Tesla doesn't seem to keep engineering of new factory processes out of china [0]. The batteries for GF3 seem to be bought from LG Chem [1]. So yeah, I don't see Tesla being that worried about their IP or something like that. [0] https://old.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/d8un7f/tesla_is_building_a_major_engineering_team_in/ https://old.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/d8un7f/tesla_i... [1] https://old.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/d7i0vk/lg_chem_has_begun_to_mass_produce_batteries_for/ https://old.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/d7i0vk/lg_chem...
DiogenesKynikos 7y ago
Source for them being arms of the Chinese state? Some of them are state-owned, but the two largest electric vehicle manufacturers in China are not. In descending order of revenue from electric vehicles (source: [1]): * BYD (a publicly traded company, listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange) * Geely (also traded on the HK Stock Exchange) * BAIC (state-owned, sells a lot of plug-in hybrids) * SAIC (state-owned) * JAC motors (state-owned) BYD and Geely's combined electric-vehicle revenue is significantly larger than that of BAIC, SAIC and JAC (combined). The electric vehicle market in China does not appear to be dominated by state-owned companies. 1. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-09-20/electric-vehicle-market-so-far-belongs-to-china https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-09-20/electr...
- SimbaOnSteroids 7y ago
  This is a de facto requirement for operating out of China.
  - DiogenesKynikos 7y ago
    What is a requirement? Instead of vague statements about everything in China being state controlled, how about some actual facts? What, concretely, does this control entail? How does it function?
    - JumpCrisscross 7y ago
      > What, concretely, does this control entail? How does it function? Party members "inspecting" facilities, demanding access to records, issuing whimsical and unappealable orders, et cetera.
      - DiogenesKynikos 7y ago
        You're asserting that the Chinese government uses these mechanisms to set the business plans of BYD and Geely? In other words, that BYD and Geely do not make decisions based on business considerations and the profit motive, but rather because the Chinese government orders them to make those decisions? I'm trying to understand just how you imagine things work in China.
erikpukinskis 7y ago
Tesla has two calculations: 1) Is demand outpacing supply? Yes? Great, therefore... 2) The more cars we can build, the more money we make 3) The more EVs on the road, the more demand there is for Teslas. That’s about it. That leaves them with two opportunities: A) scaling manufacturing, and B) encouraging EV adoption. That’s part of why they spend so much effort making the cars appealing, super fast, etc. They can self sustain a virtuous cycle with just A) but if they scale manufacturing enough B) will eventually matter. They want China to steal their IP. They also want China to help them build factories. It’s really a win-win for them.

afterburner 7y ago

> Tesla's calculations have to be aware of that. Ehn, everyone seems prone to short term thinking.

dmix 7y ago

Most Android phones are made in China, many by Chinese companies. Yet iPhones are still popular there. I don’t see why Tesla can’t do the same as the more upmarket brand. Have any of the Chinese companies come close to designing something as nice as any of the Tesla cars?

seanmcdirmid 7y ago
This. Tesla Model S’s are going to those who would be driving black Audi A6s anyways. There isn’t Chinese brand loyalty in the high end car market, no one thinks any BYD can substitute for a BMW, Mercedes, or Audi. Note all these are already made in China anyways.
- sjtindell 7y ago
  I would almost think that the higher end of Chinese consumers, educated in other countries and working for international firms, might even prefer non-Chinese brands.
  - dmix 7y ago
    Which is also why iPhones are popular there. American plus expensive is cool. It also doesn’t hurt that they are the best phones around and Tesla 3 seems to be doing pretty well in their market position with their unique cars which stand out.

narrator 7y ago

Elon has said that the key Tesla technology is the factories. The battery factory and the car factory that they are constantly evolving. That's much harder to replicate in China, mainly because those companies can operate very inefficiently thanks to State sponsorship. https://cleantechnica.com/2018/06/30/automating-intelligently-is-teslas-manufacturing-advantage/ https://cleantechnica.com/2018/06/30/automating-intelligentl...

Faark 7y ago
Tesla doesn't seem to keep engineering of new factory processes out of china [0]. The batteries for GF3 seem to be bought from LG Chem [1]. So yeah, I don't see Tesla being that worried about their IP or something like that. [0] https://old.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/d8un7f/tesla_is_building_a_major_engineering_team_in/ https://old.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/d8un7f/tesla_i... [1] https://old.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/d7i0vk/lg_chem_has_begun_to_mass_produce_batteries_for/ https://old.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/d7i0vk/lg_chem...

DiogenesKynikos 7y ago

Source for them being arms of the Chinese state? Some of them are state-owned, but the two largest electric vehicle manufacturers in China are not. In descending order of revenue from electric vehicles (source: [1]): * BYD (a publicly traded company, listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange) * Geely (also traded on the HK Stock Exchange) * BAIC (state-owned, sells a lot of plug-in hybrids) * SAIC (state-owned) * JAC motors (state-owned) BYD and Geely's combined electric-vehicle revenue is significantly larger than that of BAIC, SAIC and JAC (combined). The electric vehicle market in China does not appear to be dominated by state-owned companies. 1. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-09-20/electric-vehicle-market-so-far-belongs-to-china https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-09-20/electr...

SimbaOnSteroids 7y ago
This is a de facto requirement for operating out of China.
- DiogenesKynikos 7y ago
  What is a requirement? Instead of vague statements about everything in China being state controlled, how about some actual facts? What, concretely, does this control entail? How does it function?
  - JumpCrisscross 7y ago
    > What, concretely, does this control entail? How does it function? Party members "inspecting" facilities, demanding access to records, issuing whimsical and unappealable orders, et cetera.
    - DiogenesKynikos 7y ago
      You're asserting that the Chinese government uses these mechanisms to set the business plans of BYD and Geely? In other words, that BYD and Geely do not make decisions based on business considerations and the profit motive, but rather because the Chinese government orders them to make those decisions? I'm trying to understand just how you imagine things work in China.

erikpukinskis 7y ago

Tesla has two calculations: 1) Is demand outpacing supply? Yes? Great, therefore... 2) The more cars we can build, the more money we make 3) The more EVs on the road, the more demand there is for Teslas. That’s about it. That leaves them with two opportunities: A) scaling manufacturing, and B) encouraging EV adoption. That’s part of why they spend so much effort making the cars appealing, super fast, etc. They can self sustain a virtuous cycle with just A) but if they scale manufacturing enough B) will eventually matter. They want China to steal their IP. They also want China to help them build factories. It’s really a win-win for them.