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Isn't there only a handful of hedge funds that have posted profits every year of operation?
by digianarchist 7y ago
Isn't there only a handful of hedge funds that have posted profits every year of operation?
- nradov 7y agoYes but most of us aren't allowed to invest in them.
- iamlucaswolf 7y agoI don't pretend to know the numbers, but my guess is that Survivorship Bias might account for that to a substantial amount. I just can't imagine that there are people with glass bowls that good to make consistent alpha over the long term.
- Scoundreller 7y agoIn my dreams, I create 1024 stock-recommending twitter bots. If half beat the market in a year and half don’t, i’ll Still have one that goes up every year after 10 years, and sell it for a fortune.
- Majromax 7y ago> If half beat the market in a year and half don’t As per this article, that wouldn't happen: more than half of the bots would fail to beat the market. This article finds that the vast majority of the positive return is explained by relatively few stocks, leading to a positive skewness. The median random choice has a below-mean outcome.
- Scoundreller 7y agoRight. Regression toward the mean is inevitable. But I think people appreciate a story about picking the right stock more than the right stocks, which helps that problem.
- lonelappde 7y agoPlease read Paulos's classic book Innumeracy, on its 30th anniversary https://math.temple.edu/~paulos/oldsite/scam.html https://math.temple.edu/~paulos/oldsite/scam.html
- deleted 7y ago[deleted]
- johnrgrace 7y agoALmost all have posted profits, only a very few have posted profits higher than their risk adjusted peers.