4 ms·

How is this a dilemma at all? There are two options, send in the troops and forcefully pacify HK or wait and let all kind of mayhem happen. The second choice is

How is this a dilemma at all? There are two options, send in the troops and forcefully pacify HK or wait and let all kind of mayhem happen. The second choice is a no brainer. Xi's powerbase is in mainland China, and the people there currently have negative sympathy towards protest in HK, not least because they labeled mainland people as 'locust' and waved British flags calling for foreign intervention. HK's economy is also not directly controlled by China, nor benefit China directly, having the protester turn the whole place into shit does not harm China at all, and serve as an 'I told you so' to all of China as to its point on the protester. Rolling in the troop might galvanize support for HK both outside of China and within China, and taking all the blame for past protest and whatever pacifying action the troop did. It's clear as day which choice is superior to the Chinese government. The troops in Shenzhen are most likely just a threat - if they do roll into HK it will be the worst miscalculation by Chinese government since 89.

ddoolin 7y ago
Is there evidence to suggest China sees '89 as a miscalculation? Seems like their ultimate goal was successful.
- not_a_cop75 7y ago
  But the result of that success is a public backlash that I think they would today prefer to avoid.
- josh2600 7y ago
  Yeah, I’m not sure Tiananmen Square was a miscalculation. When’s the last time you heard about a serious mass democratic movement in China?
  - Aperocky 7y ago
    The point is China, not HK. Whatever HK does at the moment have 0 or negative effect in China itself.
    - philwelch 7y ago
      The goal is to make HK part of China.
  - kamaal 7y ago
    There was an article some where on the internets, that the protesters in the Tiananmen Square movement are the biggest supporters of the regime now. Given these people benefitted immensely from the China's economic growth after the immediate after math of that movement.
- Aperocky 7y ago
  Interesting point, I would say while they have attained their goals since 89, it doesn't mean it's done right even from a Chinese government perspective. 30 years is a long time for anything to happen and I would say most of what happened doesn't relate much to the events in Tiananmen.
- stickfigure 7y ago
  The fact that the government tries to pretend that it didn't happen suggests that they are at least embarrassed by it.
- solarkraft 7y ago
  While there are more defenses, one chinese official did publicly admit it as a mistake. Unfortunately I can't find a source right now.
SCHiM 7y ago
An authoritative regime cannot allow open resistance to its power. Idea extracted from [0]. It signals to less-than-loyal supporters of the regime that they can take a bigger slice of the available resources, leading to instability. [0]: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/11612989-the-dictator-s-handbook https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/11612989-the-dictator-s-...
- Aperocky 7y ago
  And that is a very non-sophisticated answer to a complex problem. This will not be tolerated in China, but HK is an entirely different story. What you need to do is to actually go into the pro and cons from the perspective of the Chinese government to predict their action, instead of just saying "China will not tolearte because all authoritative government will not tolerate dissent".
  - ricardobeat 7y ago
    China has said they consider the treaty invalid, meaning HK is theirs already. Why would they treat it any different than the mainland?
    - bllguo 7y ago
      What? We already know that China treats HK differently from the mainland.. Look, you can call the Chinese govt many things, but stupid is not one of them.
verttii 7y ago
Or the third choice or sending in covert units disguised as protestors, hk police, the triad or whatever else other than PLA troops. Plus a shit ton of modern crowd control equipment china has been working on
scarmig 7y ago
1) Was 89 a miscalculation? It went down basically as the CCP leaderhsip thought it would and accomplished the goals that they thought it would. 2) In this case, I think it's likely that military action against HK would be a miscalculation. Governments make miscalculations all the time, though. I'd be curious to know what are the different internal groups and their preferred approaches, as factional politics often drive these miscalculations.
deepVoid 7y ago
Exactly. It is not really a dilemma. If the Hong Kong people want to protest, let them be. It's their own problem. Mainland may help them if they appreciate it (clearly they don't). If they want freedom, let them be. If you truly love and care about Hong Kong, give it freedom and leave Hong Kong alone. There will be absolutely no forces needed in Hong Kong.
- smacktoward 7y ago
  > If you truly love and care about Hong Kong, give it freedom and leave Hong Kong alone. But this is fundamentally incompatible with the mainland's entire long-term goal for Hong Kong, which is to strip it of all its distinctive characteristics (which are seen as undesirable products of foreign meddling) and turn it into just another Chinese province. This is why the treaty with the UK that handed over Hong Kong specified that the "one country, two systems" policy would definitively end in 2047. The idea of Hong Kong as a distinct entity with its own political and economic traditions was something the CCP could only swallow if they knew it came with an expiration date.
  - deepVoid 7y ago
    It is incompatible with CCP's views for sure. However, I don't think their long-term goal for Hong Kong is to turn it into another Chinese province though. Hong Kong has been doing well and prosperous under the current system. Hong Kong people enjoy more freedom, better quality of life. It does not really benefit CCP to turn it into a province which is less prosperous in many ways.
    - smacktoward 7y ago
      If what mattered to the CCP was keeping Hong Kong prosperous, why not extend "one country, two systems" indefinitely? Or extend it until such time as a majority of the citizens of Hong Kong vote to terminate it? The CCP would never offer concessions like these, because this is a question of power, not economics. What matters to the CCP is that Hong Kong eventually be in a position where it can no longer defy it.
dionian 7y ago
> not least because they labeled mainland people as 'locust' and waved British flags calling for foreign intervention well when that's all the news is allowed to cover, it's no surprise they have that sentiment
- theseadroid 7y ago
  how about Chinese living overseas? A discussion a few days ago here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20594103 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20594103
pimmen 7y ago
The problem is that not doing anything signals weakness, as in Beijing stops trying to make a city do something if it protests. China can’t afford letting other cities learn ”wait, so if we protest the CCP would stop trying to forcefullt implement something we don’t want?” Beijing wants the message to be ”protests lead to nothing but mayhem and disorder, in the end the CCP lays down the law of the land”.
- theseadroid 7y ago
  nah other cities are as patriotic as it ever can be at this point.
philwelch 7y ago
The events of June 1989 were horrific, but were they actually a miscalculation? China wasn’t quite the world’s factory yet and the fall of communism was just starting around the world. If there was a time that the rest of the world would have imposed consequences on the Communist Chinese regime for murdering their own people, it would have been 1989. Instead everything was forgiven and after five years the US granted China “most favored nation” trade status. These days China produces an absolute majority of the world’s steel, many individual products like port cranes are solely manufactured in China, Shenzhen is an indispensable center of economic activity to a probably higher degree than even Silicon Valley, and the Belt-and-Road initiative is establishing Chinese soft power throughout the most rapidly growing parts of the world. At the same time, this is a regime that deals with ethnic and religious tensions by throwing people into concentration camps and brainwashing them into the majority culture, as they are doing with the Uyghurs today. Has that resulted in any consequences for them? Let’s face it, the “free world” these days is feckless and divided, China has turned into a superpower even since 1989, and the developing world can tell which direction the wind is blowing. Nobody can tell the CPC what to do anymore. And Hong Kong is a “disharmonious” part of China, much like Xinkiang. The CPC has a history of “solving” these “problems” by any means necessary.
- chibg10 7y ago
  The CPC would like the world to believe that nobody can tell it what to do (not least of which for domestic political reasons), but it's not really the case. China may be bigger and more powerful now, but the (media) spotlight on it is consummately brighter. I'm not terribly optimistic about the developed world's response to a hypothetical Tiananmen 2.0, but I also recognize that predicting what will capture the public imagination is an uncertain business. And in the case of actual worldwide widespread outrage (and accompanying economic penalties), you can look to pre-JCPOA Iran to see how that turns out. Even the US would buckle under that sort of pressure.
  - philwelch 7y ago
    Iran has been hijacking merchant ships and shooting down American drones. And it’s not like the world actually needs Iran for anything the way we need China for steel and electronics.
chvid 7y ago
Exactly. Also the protesters are not doing themselves a favour by blocking the airport; giving up popular support in order to do economic damage.
burtonator 7y ago
> The troops in Shenzhen are most likely just a threat - if they do roll into HK it will be the worst miscalculation by Chinese government since 89. This is CHINA we're talking about... bet on the worst.
caycep 7y ago
Or, the 3rd option, actually step up and show some leadership. The communist party higher ups just make ominous, nationalistic but cryptic statements. Carrie Lam is hiding in her bunker and she's pretty much a lame duck now. The police leadership could easily step in as an arbiter, but have decided to act as a political arm of the government rather than a professional keeper of the peace. I don't see anyone in leadership actually engaging in public discourse and trying to solve or negotiate solutions to the problems/demands the protesters are placing at their doorsteps - which are real political and economic problems that, not only HK, but the rest of China, eventually have to face.
simonh 7y ago
A regime that relies solely on the threat of violence to maintain its legitimacy, but which is not willing to employ violence, is not going to last very long.
jjcc 7y ago
That's a good point but most people in the West don't realized that. I can not rule out CPP could use military in future but that's a stupid move.

ddoolin 7y ago

Is there evidence to suggest China sees '89 as a miscalculation? Seems like their ultimate goal was successful.

not_a_cop75 7y ago
But the result of that success is a public backlash that I think they would today prefer to avoid.
josh2600 7y ago
Yeah, I’m not sure Tiananmen Square was a miscalculation. When’s the last time you heard about a serious mass democratic movement in China?
- Aperocky 7y ago
  The point is China, not HK. Whatever HK does at the moment have 0 or negative effect in China itself.
  - philwelch 7y ago
    The goal is to make HK part of China.
- kamaal 7y ago
  There was an article some where on the internets, that the protesters in the Tiananmen Square movement are the biggest supporters of the regime now. Given these people benefitted immensely from the China's economic growth after the immediate after math of that movement.
Aperocky 7y ago
Interesting point, I would say while they have attained their goals since 89, it doesn't mean it's done right even from a Chinese government perspective. 30 years is a long time for anything to happen and I would say most of what happened doesn't relate much to the events in Tiananmen.
stickfigure 7y ago
The fact that the government tries to pretend that it didn't happen suggests that they are at least embarrassed by it.
solarkraft 7y ago
While there are more defenses, one chinese official did publicly admit it as a mistake. Unfortunately I can't find a source right now.

SCHiM 7y ago

An authoritative regime cannot allow open resistance to its power. Idea extracted from [0]. It signals to less-than-loyal supporters of the regime that they can take a bigger slice of the available resources, leading to instability. [0]: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/11612989-the-dictator-s-handbook https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/11612989-the-dictator-s-...

Aperocky 7y ago
And that is a very non-sophisticated answer to a complex problem. This will not be tolerated in China, but HK is an entirely different story. What you need to do is to actually go into the pro and cons from the perspective of the Chinese government to predict their action, instead of just saying "China will not tolearte because all authoritative government will not tolerate dissent".
- ricardobeat 7y ago
  China has said they consider the treaty invalid, meaning HK is theirs already. Why would they treat it any different than the mainland?
  - bllguo 7y ago
    What? We already know that China treats HK differently from the mainland.. Look, you can call the Chinese govt many things, but stupid is not one of them.

verttii 7y ago

Or the third choice or sending in covert units disguised as protestors, hk police, the triad or whatever else other than PLA troops. Plus a shit ton of modern crowd control equipment china has been working on

scarmig 7y ago

1) Was 89 a miscalculation? It went down basically as the CCP leaderhsip thought it would and accomplished the goals that they thought it would. 2) In this case, I think it's likely that military action against HK would be a miscalculation. Governments make miscalculations all the time, though. I'd be curious to know what are the different internal groups and their preferred approaches, as factional politics often drive these miscalculations.

deepVoid 7y ago

Exactly. It is not really a dilemma. If the Hong Kong people want to protest, let them be. It's their own problem. Mainland may help them if they appreciate it (clearly they don't). If they want freedom, let them be. If you truly love and care about Hong Kong, give it freedom and leave Hong Kong alone. There will be absolutely no forces needed in Hong Kong.

smacktoward 7y ago
> If you truly love and care about Hong Kong, give it freedom and leave Hong Kong alone. But this is fundamentally incompatible with the mainland's entire long-term goal for Hong Kong, which is to strip it of all its distinctive characteristics (which are seen as undesirable products of foreign meddling) and turn it into just another Chinese province. This is why the treaty with the UK that handed over Hong Kong specified that the "one country, two systems" policy would definitively end in 2047. The idea of Hong Kong as a distinct entity with its own political and economic traditions was something the CCP could only swallow if they knew it came with an expiration date.
- deepVoid 7y ago
  It is incompatible with CCP's views for sure. However, I don't think their long-term goal for Hong Kong is to turn it into another Chinese province though. Hong Kong has been doing well and prosperous under the current system. Hong Kong people enjoy more freedom, better quality of life. It does not really benefit CCP to turn it into a province which is less prosperous in many ways.
  - smacktoward 7y ago
    If what mattered to the CCP was keeping Hong Kong prosperous, why not extend "one country, two systems" indefinitely? Or extend it until such time as a majority of the citizens of Hong Kong vote to terminate it? The CCP would never offer concessions like these, because this is a question of power, not economics. What matters to the CCP is that Hong Kong eventually be in a position where it can no longer defy it.

dionian 7y ago

> not least because they labeled mainland people as 'locust' and waved British flags calling for foreign intervention well when that's all the news is allowed to cover, it's no surprise they have that sentiment

theseadroid 7y ago
how about Chinese living overseas? A discussion a few days ago here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20594103 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20594103

pimmen 7y ago

The problem is that not doing anything signals weakness, as in Beijing stops trying to make a city do something if it protests. China can’t afford letting other cities learn ”wait, so if we protest the CCP would stop trying to forcefullt implement something we don’t want?” Beijing wants the message to be ”protests lead to nothing but mayhem and disorder, in the end the CCP lays down the law of the land”.

theseadroid 7y ago
nah other cities are as patriotic as it ever can be at this point.

philwelch 7y ago

The events of June 1989 were horrific, but were they actually a miscalculation? China wasn’t quite the world’s factory yet and the fall of communism was just starting around the world. If there was a time that the rest of the world would have imposed consequences on the Communist Chinese regime for murdering their own people, it would have been 1989. Instead everything was forgiven and after five years the US granted China “most favored nation” trade status. These days China produces an absolute majority of the world’s steel, many individual products like port cranes are solely manufactured in China, Shenzhen is an indispensable center of economic activity to a probably higher degree than even Silicon Valley, and the Belt-and-Road initiative is establishing Chinese soft power throughout the most rapidly growing parts of the world. At the same time, this is a regime that deals with ethnic and religious tensions by throwing people into concentration camps and brainwashing them into the majority culture, as they are doing with the Uyghurs today. Has that resulted in any consequences for them? Let’s face it, the “free world” these days is feckless and divided, China has turned into a superpower even since 1989, and the developing world can tell which direction the wind is blowing. Nobody can tell the CPC what to do anymore. And Hong Kong is a “disharmonious” part of China, much like Xinkiang. The CPC has a history of “solving” these “problems” by any means necessary.

chibg10 7y ago
The CPC would like the world to believe that nobody can tell it what to do (not least of which for domestic political reasons), but it's not really the case. China may be bigger and more powerful now, but the (media) spotlight on it is consummately brighter. I'm not terribly optimistic about the developed world's response to a hypothetical Tiananmen 2.0, but I also recognize that predicting what will capture the public imagination is an uncertain business. And in the case of actual worldwide widespread outrage (and accompanying economic penalties), you can look to pre-JCPOA Iran to see how that turns out. Even the US would buckle under that sort of pressure.
- philwelch 7y ago
  Iran has been hijacking merchant ships and shooting down American drones. And it’s not like the world actually needs Iran for anything the way we need China for steel and electronics.

chvid 7y ago

Exactly. Also the protesters are not doing themselves a favour by blocking the airport; giving up popular support in order to do economic damage.

burtonator 7y ago

> The troops in Shenzhen are most likely just a threat - if they do roll into HK it will be the worst miscalculation by Chinese government since 89. This is CHINA we're talking about... bet on the worst.

caycep 7y ago

Or, the 3rd option, actually step up and show some leadership. The communist party higher ups just make ominous, nationalistic but cryptic statements. Carrie Lam is hiding in her bunker and she's pretty much a lame duck now. The police leadership could easily step in as an arbiter, but have decided to act as a political arm of the government rather than a professional keeper of the peace. I don't see anyone in leadership actually engaging in public discourse and trying to solve or negotiate solutions to the problems/demands the protesters are placing at their doorsteps - which are real political and economic problems that, not only HK, but the rest of China, eventually have to face.

simonh 7y ago

A regime that relies solely on the threat of violence to maintain its legitimacy, but which is not willing to employ violence, is not going to last very long.

jjcc 7y ago

That's a good point but most people in the West don't realized that. I can not rule out CPP could use military in future but that's a stupid move.