7 ms·

Xi is very much a dictator, but he also needs money to maintain his dictatorship. HK for all its faults and bads is still quite important to the Chinese economy

Xi is very much a dictator, but he also needs money to maintain his dictatorship. HK for all its faults and bads is still quite important to the Chinese economy. That's why we haven't become Xinjiang, IMO.

ackbar03 7y ago
I think hks importance is extremely arguable. Hks gdp is barely 3 percent of china's with a stalling growth rate. I've worked in both Shanghai and Hong Kong and I can say a lot of the large cities are much much nicer in China now. You also have a lot things like hackathons and events where you see lots of young creative people who really want to make things. In Hong Kong the culture is more towards looking good in a suit and networking, a side effect of the dominance of financial industry. Personally I think that ship has long sailed and it's not particularly anyone's fault.
- loyukfai 7y ago
  Not everything can be measured by GDP though. For instance, HK can become a buffer point or backup plan should the trade war further escalates. Not to mention that many CCP members have a lot of investment in Hong Kong, a collapse of the HK economy, should the PLA be deployed, would be quite problematic. But I generally agree with your observations.
- adventured 7y ago
  Hong Kong's importance to China isn't its GDP contribution primarily (although it is special vs China when it comes to per capita performance; Hong Kong packs a lot of economic punch in a small package). It's the special relationship Hong Kong is still granted globally on trade & finance, particularly with the US. China desperately requires dollars to keep its debt problems floating and to interact with the global economy (relatively little is settled in Yuan outside of China's borders). Without a steady inflow of dollars China cannot function normally; their economy would seize up. Hong Kong is a critical inflow port for US Dollars into China's economy and is largely spared from the tariff war. This is why Hong Kong is so important to China right now, and it's also why China has been so careful in suppressing the protests (by their standards). China is afraid of the US changing Hong Kong's special status. People often don't think China can be swayed: the US slapped currency manipulator status on them, and they immediately backed off from letting the Yuan sink, carefully pegging it just inbounds near the 7 line.
- fragmede 7y ago
  It's not what you're wearing, but how you're wearing it. Culture is more than the rack (or tailor) you buy your suit from. If you choose to wear one. Things like personal space and not spitting in public and not having to kowtowing to whomever is the current President, are things some hold dear. Others may not. Other still, may look to the past and ask: what started on 15th April, 1989 and ended on 4th June 1989, in Tiananmen Square, and elsewhere in China?
- whoevercares 7y ago
  Let’s face it. Hong Kong is effectively a backdoor. It’s a great place for almost anyone rich enough to do money laundering like stuff. For example, when mainland tightened its currency exchange control, people still transfer money via HK in someway. It’s sometimes disgusting
  - ackbar03 7y ago
    Yes I agree. That's partly why for me, despite living in Hong Kong and having worked in finance I don't really mind if some of these people get washed out in the process.
    - greedo 7y ago
      That's a horrible metaphor...
- throwaway1997 7y ago
  The very people who are in charge of the mainland have a lot of money that they want to either park in the west or hedge against the house of cards that they are building. There is currently only one route for this money to go and rolling in the tanks will inconvenience way too many powerful people.
baybal2 7y ago
> Xi is very much a dictator, but he also needs money to maintain his dictatorship. To maintain dictatorship, you need bullets, not money. In USSR during Stalin, regular people were pretty much eating grass, but he never doubted his ability to do virtually anything to them without repercussions. Soviet army of the time had a meal of 3 slices of dried bread and a millet porridge. Even Stalin's personal bodyguards were eating thin gruel, but none of them ever dared to do anything about that. A tactic of trying to economically starve a dictatorship has no logic. Yes, you can cripple a country, but not the dictatorship itself.
- loyukfai 7y ago
  Maybe yes, but Xi is not Kim, at least not yet.
  - baybal2 7y ago
    I heard a good phrase for that: "you need to be pretty stupid to appoint yourself a president for life" In other words, great villains have exit plans, bad ones don't
    - whoevercares 7y ago
      Well Chinese has been ruling by lifelong kings and dictators like Mao for thousands of years. Democracy doesn’t have a great foundation there and it just need years of cultivation through education or whatever. The culture also somewhat aligned with the “do greater good” and “society should be unionized” ideology which doesn’t make lifelong leaders look like a stupid idea
      - swordsmith 7y ago
        This is a common argument that Chinese/East-Asian culture makes democracy extremely difficult. The prime counter examples are Taiwan, South Korea, and even Japan. Similar cultural background, but all are able to operate in a liberal democracy in a relatively short amount of time.
inflatableDodo 7y ago
To pick a single data point, I'd assume that someone who bans all Winnie The Pooh pictures across a country after comparisons are made with themselves, has very probably gone insane and become utterly drunk on power. Do not expect Xi to do something sane, especially if he feels insulted. I think HK's best hope is for something else big to distract him. Unfortunately, I think it is very likely right now that he will invade HK and kill a lot of people.
- ImaCake 7y ago
  History is filled with insane leaders who made terrible choices. Sometimes it seems stranger that leaders make rational decisions.
  - inflatableDodo 7y ago
    As above, so below.
- rruieews 7y ago
  > assume that someone who bans all Winnie The Pooh pictures across a country I'm not sure if this will change your opinion, but this isn't true. I asked my friends that are in China now to search for Winne The Pooh on Baidu and Bing, and they were able to find pictures of the character. The are also Winnie the Pooh cartoons and movies and dolls readily available in China. Along with various merchandise for sale. So no, it is not banned in China. Neither are time travel movies and TV shows, despite the English news reporting as such.
  - loyukfai 7y ago
    Such things change by the day, you have to understand that. The PRC government does not publish a exhaustive list of what's being banned at the moment. It wouldn't surprise me either, that the decision was made not by Xi, but by someone who wanted to appease him or the part or whatever.
    - 7y ago
deleted 7y ago
[deleted]

ackbar03 7y ago

I think hks importance is extremely arguable. Hks gdp is barely 3 percent of china's with a stalling growth rate. I've worked in both Shanghai and Hong Kong and I can say a lot of the large cities are much much nicer in China now. You also have a lot things like hackathons and events where you see lots of young creative people who really want to make things. In Hong Kong the culture is more towards looking good in a suit and networking, a side effect of the dominance of financial industry. Personally I think that ship has long sailed and it's not particularly anyone's fault.

loyukfai 7y ago
Not everything can be measured by GDP though. For instance, HK can become a buffer point or backup plan should the trade war further escalates. Not to mention that many CCP members have a lot of investment in Hong Kong, a collapse of the HK economy, should the PLA be deployed, would be quite problematic. But I generally agree with your observations.
adventured 7y ago
Hong Kong's importance to China isn't its GDP contribution primarily (although it is special vs China when it comes to per capita performance; Hong Kong packs a lot of economic punch in a small package). It's the special relationship Hong Kong is still granted globally on trade & finance, particularly with the US. China desperately requires dollars to keep its debt problems floating and to interact with the global economy (relatively little is settled in Yuan outside of China's borders). Without a steady inflow of dollars China cannot function normally; their economy would seize up. Hong Kong is a critical inflow port for US Dollars into China's economy and is largely spared from the tariff war. This is why Hong Kong is so important to China right now, and it's also why China has been so careful in suppressing the protests (by their standards). China is afraid of the US changing Hong Kong's special status. People often don't think China can be swayed: the US slapped currency manipulator status on them, and they immediately backed off from letting the Yuan sink, carefully pegging it just inbounds near the 7 line.
fragmede 7y ago
It's not what you're wearing, but how you're wearing it. Culture is more than the rack (or tailor) you buy your suit from. If you choose to wear one. Things like personal space and not spitting in public and not having to kowtowing to whomever is the current President, are things some hold dear. Others may not. Other still, may look to the past and ask: what started on 15th April, 1989 and ended on 4th June 1989, in Tiananmen Square, and elsewhere in China?
whoevercares 7y ago
Let’s face it. Hong Kong is effectively a backdoor. It’s a great place for almost anyone rich enough to do money laundering like stuff. For example, when mainland tightened its currency exchange control, people still transfer money via HK in someway. It’s sometimes disgusting
- ackbar03 7y ago
  Yes I agree. That's partly why for me, despite living in Hong Kong and having worked in finance I don't really mind if some of these people get washed out in the process.
  - greedo 7y ago
    That's a horrible metaphor...
throwaway1997 7y ago
The very people who are in charge of the mainland have a lot of money that they want to either park in the west or hedge against the house of cards that they are building. There is currently only one route for this money to go and rolling in the tanks will inconvenience way too many powerful people.

baybal2 7y ago

> Xi is very much a dictator, but he also needs money to maintain his dictatorship. To maintain dictatorship, you need bullets, not money. In USSR during Stalin, regular people were pretty much eating grass, but he never doubted his ability to do virtually anything to them without repercussions. Soviet army of the time had a meal of 3 slices of dried bread and a millet porridge. Even Stalin's personal bodyguards were eating thin gruel, but none of them ever dared to do anything about that. A tactic of trying to economically starve a dictatorship has no logic. Yes, you can cripple a country, but not the dictatorship itself.

loyukfai 7y ago
Maybe yes, but Xi is not Kim, at least not yet.
- baybal2 7y ago
  I heard a good phrase for that: "you need to be pretty stupid to appoint yourself a president for life" In other words, great villains have exit plans, bad ones don't
  - whoevercares 7y ago
    Well Chinese has been ruling by lifelong kings and dictators like Mao for thousands of years. Democracy doesn’t have a great foundation there and it just need years of cultivation through education or whatever. The culture also somewhat aligned with the “do greater good” and “society should be unionized” ideology which doesn’t make lifelong leaders look like a stupid idea
    - swordsmith 7y ago
      This is a common argument that Chinese/East-Asian culture makes democracy extremely difficult. The prime counter examples are Taiwan, South Korea, and even Japan. Similar cultural background, but all are able to operate in a liberal democracy in a relatively short amount of time.

inflatableDodo 7y ago

To pick a single data point, I'd assume that someone who bans all Winnie The Pooh pictures across a country after comparisons are made with themselves, has very probably gone insane and become utterly drunk on power. Do not expect Xi to do something sane, especially if he feels insulted. I think HK's best hope is for something else big to distract him. Unfortunately, I think it is very likely right now that he will invade HK and kill a lot of people.

ImaCake 7y ago
History is filled with insane leaders who made terrible choices. Sometimes it seems stranger that leaders make rational decisions.
- inflatableDodo 7y ago
  As above, so below.
rruieews 7y ago
> assume that someone who bans all Winnie The Pooh pictures across a country I'm not sure if this will change your opinion, but this isn't true. I asked my friends that are in China now to search for Winne The Pooh on Baidu and Bing, and they were able to find pictures of the character. The are also Winnie the Pooh cartoons and movies and dolls readily available in China. Along with various merchandise for sale. So no, it is not banned in China. Neither are time travel movies and TV shows, despite the English news reporting as such.
- loyukfai 7y ago
  Such things change by the day, you have to understand that. The PRC government does not publish a exhaustive list of what's being banned at the moment. It wouldn't surprise me either, that the decision was made not by Xi, but by someone who wanted to appease him or the part or whatever.
  - 7y ago

deleted 7y ago

[deleted]