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The electric car industry hasn't remotely boomed. Electric cars are still deeply strangled by two key factors: industry inertia and the cost/supply of lithium b

The electric car industry hasn't remotely boomed. Electric cars are still deeply strangled by two key factors: industry inertia and the cost/supply of lithium batteries. Once those two factors are solved (and a build-up of lithium mines is key to that) electric cars will go from being a niche within a niche to utterly dominating the market very, very quickly. Within the next decade we might see companies like Hyundai/Kia, Toyota and Honda selling more EVs than ICE. Take the Kia Niro EV as an example: if the cost of batteries halved and the supply was unconstrained, there is little stopping that kind of product from dominating the market—starting with two-car households with off-street parking. With their lithium cell investments, Telsa are well positioned to benefit from this boom, but they need to think carefully about their positioning. Right now they're a luxury brand with no serious competitors; when Telsa's drivetrain advantage is substantially neutralised, their mind share is likely to stagnate. In my opinion Tesla needs to prepare to be in the budget space. They need to partner with an external manufacturer to sell a product with normal door handles that competes with Hyundai and Toyota. Because once the cost of batteries falls, I predict a substantial slice of their market will simply disappear to the economy manufacturers. I suspect that many people who love Telsa really just love the idea of electric vehicles and they'll be buying something more like the Kia Niro EV.

ajross 7y ago
> The electric car industry hasn't remotely boomed. Plug-in electric sales in 2018 were up 61% over 2017, which was 51% higher than 2016 (via quick wikipedia check). What numbers would you want to see before calling that a "boom"? How much higher than 60% growth does something have to have before it's not "strangled"? I think that's silly. Clearly these things are going somewhere. Production at all levels is adapting to compete, and that means some areas (like Li production in the linked articles) are going to outstrip the field which remains limited by other things. But even right now they're clearly out of the "niche within a niche" category and growing very well.
- sjwright 7y ago
  Of course EVs are booming in relative terms. Things boom all the time in relative terms. That's not remarkable. The pure EV market will eventually dominate vehicle sales in most segments, and most of the rest will be PHEV. Have EVs even hit 1% of worldwide vehicle sales yet? Call me back when it passes 10% and we'll talk about an EV boom.
  - Retric 7y ago
    We are well past that 1%. Global EV Sales In May 2019: Over 179,000 At 2.3% Market Share https://insideevs.com/news/357198/global-ev-sales-in-may-2019/ https://insideevs.com/news/357198/global-ev-sales-in-may-201... The current trend is under 4 years until EV’s are 10% of global car sales. It’s likely adoption will slow down at some point, but 50% of all new car sales being EV could happen within 10 years. Though it would take much longer for EV’s to represent 1/2 of all cars on the road.
    - ThomPete 7y ago
      Pretty sure that's relative to the sales not to how many cars are EV of the entire car fleet , also probably a bunch of hybrids in that too.
      - sp332 7y ago
        Yeah sjwright asked about sales and got an answer about sales.
        sjwright 7y ago
        And I'm genuinely impressed that it's that high. I expected the Toyota Camrys and low cost Indian scooters to dwarf EV sales more than that—but I had forgotten about the Chinese manufacturers!
        benj111 7y ago
        "low cost Indian scooters" Would those actually be included in these figures?
- sinistersnare 7y ago
  Your argument reminds me of this (relevant) XKCD comic. https://xkcd.com/1102/ https://xkcd.com/1102/
- m0zg 7y ago
  Last month you ate one doughnut, this month you ate two, so month-to-month growth is 100%. Is your consumption of doughnuts booming? To say that it is, I'd need to see doughnuts replace a significant portion of your calorie intake first. Toyota RAV4 alone sold more than all plug-in cars combined.
  - kurthr 7y ago
    Actually, the RAV4 is on track to sell only 450k total this year, while plug in electrics are on track to sell 3.5M. http://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-data/toyota/toyota-rav4/ http://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-data/toyota/toyota-rav4... Tesla alone (S, X, 3) will probably sell close to 350k (~85-90k/q), and they are not more than 10% of total EV.
    - m0zg 7y ago
      I meant in the US. In comparison all Tesla models sold 192K last year, for a marketshare of a whopping 1.1% (information is also from carsalesbase). It's funny that you're comparing US sales for Rav4 (just one of half a dozen popular Toyota models), with worldwide sales of electrics, and then extrapolate Tesla figures even though we're in the middle of the year. Out in the real world very few people can afford a $45k+ car.
      - benj111 7y ago
        Your point about the Rav 4 sales being US only is reasonable. I've tried looking for global sales, I've been unsuccessful so far. Apparently the biggest selling 'car' was the Ford F series, so not even one model and that sold just over a million. https://www.motoringresearch.com/car-news/worlds-best-selling-cars-2018/ https://www.motoringresearch.com/car-news/worlds-best-sellin... Edit: Biggest selling in the world, in 2018
- bryanrasmussen 7y ago
  yesterday I had a dollar in my pocket, today I have 2 dollars. Dollars in my pocket is booming right now. But relative to amount of dollars I have or that in the world, not so much. So I think other statistics would be more useful to determine quality of boom.
  - noonespecial 7y ago
    The question is whether you'll have $3 in your pocket tomorrow and $4 the next day or $4 tomorrow and $8 the next.
    - bryanrasmussen 7y ago
      man if I had a dollar for every time I said If I had a dollar I'd never stop saying if I had a dollar. If I had a dollar.
  - benj111 7y ago
    Length of boom? Sustainability of boom? The EV boom seems to tick both those boxes. Your wallet boom has only been going for a day, and you know better than me how sustainable it is.
Iv 7y ago
2 million of the 70 million cars produced annually in the world are electric. It went from fringe to industrial, talking about a boom is acceptable IMO. It still have a 35x potential growth, so it can "boom" again, but the EV industry now is huge
- Marsymars 7y ago
  > It still have a 35x potential growth, so it can "boom" again, but the EV industry now is huge One of the hyped upsides of electric cars is decreased maintenance costs leading to a decrease in per-km capital costs of driving. If this is true, unless induced demand from this causes people to drive more, EVs effectively will shrink the total car industry pie, leaving something less than 35x potential growth.
  - londons_explore 7y ago
    I don't think the decreased maintenance costs will actually happen initially. Big design changes like the shift to EV require lots of new parts to be designed, and every new part has a non-zero chance of a reliability issue. 5 years time, we'll be talking about the motor mount point which rusts through and causes a chunk of EV cars to fail. A 2nd effect is as cars get more computerized, 3rd party repairs will get much harder, and manufacturers will drop support for first party repairs when it no longer makes financial sense, so a lot of otherwise good cars will get sent to the scrapheap because they couldn't get some firmware update etc. That will overall increase the cost of motoring.
    - foxylad 7y ago
      Disagree with maintenance: electric motors are enormously simpler than ICE, and really well understood. Removing high temperatures, fuel, lubrication and exhaust from the system is a huge advantage. Agree on digital scrapheap, although this applies to a lesser extent to ICE vehicle too. We should be demanding open sourcing of car code after warranty expires.
      - 7y ago
threeseed 7y ago
> with no serious competitors Seems to be a different story in the US versus Europe. In Europe they have a lot more competitors either with cars now or coming soon e.g. VW ID3, VW Polestar 2, BMW i3, Honda e, Peuegot e-208, Renault Zoe, Nissan Leaf, Hyundai Kona EV, Mercedes EQC400/EQS, Audi eTron, Jaguar I-PACE etc. Tesla has largely had the market to itself but now you are seeing much higher quality cars with only slightly less range.
- shiftpgdn 7y ago
  You can buy almost all of those cars in the US. My experience has been however that dealers have little to no interest in selling them to you.
  - sokoloff 7y ago
    Dealers make most of their profits in the service bays, not on the sales floor. It's much better for them to make a few hundred dollars profit selling a car that will (statistically) regularly return to the service bays than to make a thousand or more on a car that will not darken their service bays nearly as often.
- sjwright 7y ago
  Most of those are either quirky and compromised or simply not (yet) available in serious quantities. I'm personally looking forward to the Hyundai/Kia models, as they seem to be closest to getting the formula right—enough range, enough power, enough fit and finish. Once the cost and supply of batteries is "solved" they could dominate the economy segment for a while.
  - clouddrover 7y ago
    Volkswagen will likely soon overtake Hyundai with their MEB platform cars. The initial MEB models are: - Volkswagen ID.3: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A8cHHNPRg-c https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A8cHHNPRg-c - SEAT el-Born: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZI7WFtwc8g https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZI7WFtwc8g - Skoda Vision iV: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-f1g9xl6W_E https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-f1g9xl6W_E - Audi Q4 e-tron: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DiwevzHsCbU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DiwevzHsCbU Hyundai may also have some battery problems to deal with at the moment: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/electric-car-catches-fire-and-explodes-in-le-bizard-garage-1.5227665 https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/electric-car-catches...
ineedasername 7y ago
They have booked relative to prior production and future estimates for production are on the rise. Volkswagen for example is near the release of a car based on a new platform for mass production of a more affordable (than Tesla) option that falls at the lower end of the Tesla in terms of range. Many other examples abound. The very near future will show tremendous year over year growth in the EV sector. Seems like a boom to me.
joe-collins 7y ago
I think a robust charging network is a third dependency. You need to have a garage, or commute to someplace with or near a charger. Down here in San Diego (East County), I don't see a lot of the latter.
- sjwright 7y ago
  It's a dependency for dominating the entire vehicle market, but it's not a dependency for the substantial slice of the market with access to off-street parking at home. That's probably at least 10–20% of the market right there. Add to that the slice of the market with access to off-street parking at work which can be retrofitted for charging. As EV sales grow, car parking will adapt and recharging will be bundled into the cost of parking. That's another 10–20%. Once you've sold to those markets, the "robust charging network" will solve itself.
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]
- richardw 7y ago
  20k in US https://www.google.co.za/amp/s/electrek.co/2019/07/09/us-electric-car-charging-station-connectors/amp/ https://www.google.co.za/amp/s/electrek.co/2019/07/09/us-ele... 400k in China https://www.renewableenergyworld.com/articles/2019/07/the-number-of-public-charging-stations-for-evs-in-china-surges-505-in-may.html https://www.renewableenergyworld.com/articles/2019/07/the-nu... I'd bet that's where the shift comes from.
- clouddrover 7y ago
  Or go solar and charge anywhere you have daylight: - Experimental Toyota Prius: https://newatlas.com/toyota-prius-solar-roof/60461/ https://newatlas.com/toyota-prius-solar-roof/60461/ - Sono Sion: https://sonomotors.com/en/sion/ https://sonomotors.com/en/sion/ - Lightyear One: https://lightyear.one/ https://lightyear.one/ Even if you're only getting a small amount of range from solar in Winter, that's still less charging that has to come from the grid.
vvanders 7y ago
Tesla still doesn't have a rival in charging network or software. Having arrived at more than a few broken chargers the former is going to give them a lead for a good while.
- clouddrover 7y ago
  > Tesla still doesn't have a rival in charging network Depends where you are I suppose. In addition to Tesla's network, Europe has: - Ionity: https://ionity.eu/ https://ionity.eu/ - FastNed: https://fastnedcharging.com/en/ https://fastnedcharging.com/en/ - Allego: https://www.allego.eu/ https://www.allego.eu/ - GIREVE: https://www.gireve.com/en/ https://www.gireve.com/en/ And more. All standardized on CCS type 2 plugs which is another plus.
  - WorldMaker 7y ago
    It's the US where there currently isn't a strong "second place" to Tesla yet. There are a lot of competitors depending on region, but that's also the problem is that there are so many competitors that quality is a very broad spectrum and margins are low. VW's (US EPA mandated) Electrify America (and its alliance in turn with players like ChargePoint) is probably the one to watch for up-and-coming national second place competitor to Tesla's charging network, but they are years behind in build out right now.
- Sabinus 7y ago
  How exclusive is the Tesla charging network? Is it available to use for other brands of electric car?
  - dabeeeenster 7y ago
    I have a Nissan leaf. When I talk to people about it, it amazes me how many people think anyone can use the Tesla network. Noone other than Tesla cars can!
    - clouddrover 7y ago
693471 7y ago
You people are so obsessed over door handles. It's a hysteria. They're fine.
- F_r_k 7y ago
  They're expensive
  - audunw 7y ago
    The Model 3 one? Doubt that they're significantly more expensive. They have some problem with frozen door handles which they should probably get some fix for, like putting in a heating element. That would add cost, but also not much.
    - sjwright 7y ago
      It's not so much about cost but rather simplicity of manufacturing, ease of use, robustness, and not signalling that they want to be clever for the sake of it. The door handles are a symptom of the design ego of Tesla. It's the same thing with the elimination of nearly all physical buttons. It's the right instinct but they've taken it too far.
      - 693471 7y ago
        Are you a Tesla owner or a troll? Because I'm an owner and can tell you this is an exaggeration. And the S and X door handles can be repaired for much less than people are buying the replacements. The rebuild kit uses stainless parts instead of cast. https://evtuning.com/products/model-s-door-handle-rebuild-kit-service https://evtuning.com/products/model-s-door-handle-rebuild-ki... I think you've forgotten of the days when you could literally snap door handles off of Audis by pulling too hard.
lettergram 7y ago
I suspect Tesla knows their space fairly well. Until there is a car that can go 400 miles on a single charge and recharge in 2 minutes, with cheap repairs and work well in all weather conditions for a decade or two, you won’t see the masses jump on EV. You may see people in cities (often these are more affluence). I don’t really see EV becoming wide spread (I.e. ~50% of the market) for at least 10-15 years. Even then, power prices will spike at homes. I don’t even want to imagine what that’ll cost.
- russdill 7y ago
  With an ev, you only need to wait on charging it you are taking a long trip. With an ICE you need to stop at a gas station pretty much every week.
- sq_ 7y ago
  Even if people's home power bills spike, they'll still save plenty of money by not paying for gas. In parts of the US, a decent commute will cost one $200 to $300 in gas a month, and charging an EV off the grid for the same range will cost a lot less.
  - dTal 7y ago
    Is this really a good thing for the environment? Grid power is still mostly fossil. Even if we posit that fossil -> power station -> grid -> battery -> motors is, say, twice as efficient as fossil -> fueling station -> combustion engine, it's a lot more than twice as cheap. So wouldn't we expect the shift to EVs to cause energy consumption to rise, and hence also emissions? I understand the argument that it's easier to upgrade centralized power generation to green technologies than the entire fleet of vehicles, but the timing is critical if that is to be a net win for emissions, a nuance which seems to be swept under the rug as everyone's keen to avoid fuel taxes by switching to EVs. Of course, if everyone switches to EV electricity demand will spike and prices will rise, and governments will be eager to reclaim lost fuel tax revenue with other automobile focused taxes. It might not stay cheaper.
    - tonyedgecombe 7y ago
nardi 7y ago
> In my opinion Tesla needs to prepare to be in the budget space. They need to partner with an external manufacturer to sell a product with normal door handles that competes with Hyundai and Toyota. Because once the cost of batteries falls, I predict a substantial slice of their market will simply disappear to the economy manufacturers. I suspect that many people who love Telsa really just love the idea of electric vehicles and they'll be buying something more like the Kia Niro EV. In my opinion Apple needs to prepare to be in the budget space. They need to partner with an external manufacturer to sell a product with a physical keyboard that competes with Blackberry and Palm. Because once the cost of touchscreens falls, I predict a substantial slice of their market will simply disappear to the economy manufacturers. I suspect that many people who love Apple really just love the idea of smartphones and they'll be buying something more like the Blackberry Curve 8300. -sjwright, maybe, circa 2008
- Brometheus 7y ago
  http://www.wimjellema.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/Global-marketshare-smartphone-os-Q2-2016.png http://www.wimjellema.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/Global-...
  - beaner 7y ago
    Wrong chart, it should be split by manufacturer.
    - amelius 7y ago
      And the areas should represent revenue, not number of users.
    - IshKebab 7y ago
      Depends what you care about. If you're writing apps it shouldn't.
      - pyduan 7y ago
        GP is talking about Tesla/Apple's business strategy, so clearly in this context a split by manufacturer is what they care about.
muzika 7y ago
Most people who buy Teslas don’t want “just” an EV, they want a TESLA.
- saagarjha 7y ago
  I guess it's good for Tesla that they've managed to make an EV that attractive.
- sjwright 7y ago
  Given that Tesla are currently one of few compelling EVs available in volume, that's an unproven thesis. Get back to me when there's direct competition from BMW, Mercedes, Volkswagen, Genesis etc with comparable products at comparable volumes. I think more than a few Tesla customers would be just as happy to be driving a G70 or C-Class EV. Don't get me wrong—I think the Model 3 is a (mostly) stellar product and I'd love nothing more than to see Tesla come to dominate American car manufacturing. But for that to happen they'll need to swallow their design egos and offer simpler cars with normal door handles and widely available parts for inexpensive repairs. Until that happens they'll find their growth ceiling very soon.
Theodores 7y ago
> normal door handles The business plan always was to start at the high end with the Roadster, then the deluxe sedan and then the affordable Model 3. The Model 3 has cheaper door handles than the Model S. Tesla is about building car factories rather than cars. Once you have the robots doing as they are told then you can make whatever you want. If you had to recycle a Lamborghini and a Dacia Sandero then you would probably end up with near equal piles of raw materials for both vehicles, give or take a bit of steel. The other input is energy. The cylinder head on the Lamborghini takes a bit more work to make than the lump of iron that comes with the Dacia. But, if you have built out lots of renewable power then you can get those CNC machines and other robots doing overtime. Tesla with their vertical integration business model are finding customers at their price point and they can't make cars quick enough. Despite the sceptics, it is working. Personally I think the budget space will be filled with an electric version of a 'Dacia Sandero' but made in China. EVs are more pleasant to be in as there is not the vibration and noise from the engine, or the local cloud of pollution. Because of this and the realities of driving in city/town areas there really is a need for a vehicle far simpler than a Model 3, something without the bells and whistles. Honda have something in the works that is nearer the brief. They are going with a low range EV that is not going to pretend to do hundreds of miles on a charge. This is for the two car family where car two just needs to do the shopping, pick the kids up and get into congestion charging zones. In China there are plenty of BYD fit for purpose EVs that are budget and will be making their way to Western markets in due course. The legacy brands in Europe and the USA are stuck with having to do things the old way with existing supply chains. To make an EV all they need is to buy the bits from Bosch and shove them in to final assembly but they aren't doing it.
- atq2119 7y ago
  Taking about legacy brands, most of them do have exactly those low range fully electric models available that you're talking about, e.g. the VW e-up, which is a great choice for a daily commute. They aren't very aggressive about growing the market though.
- sjwright 7y ago
  All true, but I still disagree that the Model 3 is affordable. It's still in the luxury space in terms of pricing.
Bombthecat 7y ago
Uhhhhh I still have no idea where I get the power from? I don't think I will see a power plug in the next ten years near my house (street)
- audunw 7y ago
  I'm pretty sure there's still 5 years worth of exponential growth potential from people who do have garages or otherwise will have the ability to pay for getting a plug somehow, and from new construction that's already set up for charging plugs (I believe it's required in some places like California now?) Then what will happen in the 5-10 year time frame is that EVs will be significantly cheaper than ICE vehicles (maybe not purchase price at first, but certainly TCO). Is there electricity anywhere near where you park? Think about what it would cost to set up a plug. It might be quite a bit, but unless electricity is really far away, it's not a crazy amount either. If buying an EV would save you a significant amount of money over a 10 year period, it's likely that you'd be willing to use some of that savings to pay to have a plug set up. Maybe you can't set up that plug yourself, but as long as you're willing to pay a bit extra over the cost of electricity, there's going to be companies willing to set up plugs along the street. Once investors see that the transition to EVs is guaranteed, I'm certain there will be a rush to put up chargers, since the company that gets a street is likely to keep a monopoly on that street for a long time. The other way to get street side charging is simply to get governments to do it. That's what Oslo has done. They started out being free, but now there's a reasonable fee on them, and I think that's much more sustainable. With some luck in the elections I could see something like that happening in several areas of the US. It'll be much easier to sell this policy once EVs are a bit cheaper, so I think it's possible if democrats gain some control, especially if they gain some support for some kind of Green New Deal. It's a great investment to boost the economy long term. Generates lots of decent work in the short term, and massive benefits to the public in the long term since it'll guarantee them cheap charging, leading to big savings to operate their vehicles. There's another way to think about it: setting up a plug for your car is a very tiny fraction of the work/infrastructure required for your apartment, which somehow you found the way to pay for (either directly, or through renting). This kind of work is relatively easy to finance if the demand is there, since it's an investment that's likely to last a very long time and generate a lot of value. There's also the fast charging model, which can be OK if you have a car with a fairly large battery and don't drive too much. You might be able to get by with charging once a week, and you could probably do it at a location where you'd spend some time anyway, such as a supermarket, near a restaurant or exercise studio. It causes some extra wear on the battery, but not an unreasonable amount.
Gravityloss 7y ago
But lithium is only a medium sized part of the battery by weight and cost.
deleted 7y ago
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cletus 7y ago
What about the constraints of what the power grid can support in terms of mass EV rollout? What about the charging infrastructure itself? The first point in particular doesn't seem to get the attention it deserves. As an example some places (try to) ban crypto mining because the extra power load effectively makes power more expensive for everyone. The residential grid is built with a particular established demand for power. EV charging would significantly change that in many places.
- wongarsu 7y ago
  The power grid is built to handle peak demand. Residential charging is likely to peak at night, when domestic demand is at its lowest. If natural charging patterns are not advantageous enough it's fairly straight forward to install smart meters that charge a different electricity price depending on time of day. The options range from simple off-peak pricing already offered in many places all the way up to live updating prices based on electricity spot prices and transmission capacity (this would also go a long way towards using solar and wind more efficiently). The big problems are likely shops offering EV charging and industrial facilities with fairly constant power requirements charging trucks and heavy equipment. But those are comparatively easy to scale.
  - opsroller 7y ago
    Hmm, if only there was a company who could help balance demand. https://www.tesla.com/megapack https://www.tesla.com/megapack
- benj111 7y ago
  It seems like EVs would add 25% to electricity demand. The big question is how you deal with the peaks. Ideally all cars would be able to charge overnight, so you could potentially spread that demand over 12 hours or more. https://www.engineering.com/ElectronicsDesign/ElectronicsDesignArticles/ArticleID/15971/How-Much-Electricity-Will-EVs-Require.aspx https://www.engineering.com/ElectronicsDesign/ElectronicsDes...
  - 7y ago
ianai 7y ago
People HATE the maintenance requirements of cars. If Tesla can establish their cars as almost never needing service with a usable life of something closer to 1 million miles and decades of use then suddenly paying a premium for their models can be spread over much greater periods of time. Personally, I wish they would decouple the platform from the comfort center. Have chassis form factors for various purposes (single person/roadster, crossover, truck, utility, etc) and branded “comfort centers” housing the human interface stuff. Make it so the comfort center can be changed out when ever and keeping the same underlying platform.
- rootusrootus 7y ago
  That is a seriously high bar, and extremely unlikely (there are lots and lots of things on a car that break that have nothing to do with the drivetrain). I think a better first goal is to get the reliability up on par with the other domestic manufacturers, and get the repair time down to something comparable as well. I got pretty close a few weeks ago to picking up a Model 3P but the maintenance stories spooked me. I am just not enough of an EV/Tesla enthusiast to deal with that on my commuter car.
- jamesmadison66 7y ago
  is 1mil miles and low service reqs the actual current specs for Teslas?
- clouddrover 7y ago
  > If Tesla can establish their cars as almost never needing service Teslas have quite poor reliability so far: - https://www.thedrive.com/tech/27725/tesla-fleet-company-struggles-raise-questions-about-robotaxi-plans https://www.thedrive.com/tech/27725/tesla-fleet-company-stru... - https://www.thedrive.com/tech/27989/teslas-screen-saga-shows-why-automotive-grade-matters https://www.thedrive.com/tech/27989/teslas-screen-saga-shows... I'm sure Tesla will improve with time but they're not going to out-Toyota Toyota any time soon.
  - hodr 7y ago
    It only took Kia 6 years to out-Toyota Toyota, that is to go from producing the worst mainstream cars in the us to the best in initial and 3 year quality metrics (and well above Toyota). (2009 when they built first US production line to 2015).
Zigurd 7y ago
Re " In my opinion Tesla needs to prepare to be in the budget space." There are entire large traditional car companies that build no, or very few, budget cars. To make electric cars cheaply, it will take several changes, some of which look promising, but should not be underestimated for time and difficulty: It will take widespread adoption of level 4 autonomy to make crashes rare Scaled-down lightweight EVs will have to become available and accepted, especially w.r.t. safety It will take finding the sweet spot for some markets: E.g. on-demand scooters, privately owned semi-enclosed trikes with light-enough removable battery packs for apartment dwellers, etc. Vehicles will need a "Cambrian explosion" of variety. It will take regulatory changes to support the above
- WorldMaker 7y ago
  Autonomy is a red herring to cheap. Other form factors are nice, but also indirectly related. On the other hand it may only take one tiny disruption in ICE engine supply chains, or one large production ramp up to an order of scale efficiency boost to drop EVs below ICE vehicle costs on a like-model for like-model basis. With all of the major German automakers now on an "electrify everything by 2023" plan, one or both of those disruptions may exactly happen within the next five years.
martythemaniak 7y ago
I mostly agree. I see the lengths to which people go to save a few cents on gas (like $1.20 vs $1.13/litre around here) and I can't help but think that once the "gas" price of EVs starts to permeate the mass consciousness, ICE vehicles are done for (outside of some specific niches). I pay ~$1.25 in electricity to go 100km in my EV (overnight charging at home), someone in a comparable car would be paying about 10x as much. People, by and large, have not understood this. As for Tesla, they don't have any intent on being in the proper budget space, ie $15k mini cars. They've stated they will release a compact car in 3-5 years (no other info), but I doubt it'll ever cost less than $25k, probably more like $30k. And that's probably just fine and dandy with Tesla, as Apple has shown capturing a high-end clientele and their fat profits is a great place to be. Their plan for the "budget" space is robotaxis, which of course depends on their FSD program. We'll see how that goes.
- WorldMaker 7y ago
  Yeah, I think the tipping point for gas price sensitivity to cede to a (much) faster boom in EVs is likely a lot closer than many analysts currently expect. Because that tipping point is also concomitant with the "range anxiety" switchover point. Once gas prices hit certain peaks, station shutdowns will snowball (as evidenced from previous events such as the 70s oil crisis, 00s recession, et al), and long range price volatility (rural/interstate gas prices versus daily driver city gas prices) will change the economics of a lot of long term trip planning quickly to ICE trips (back to) being as range sensitive or more than comparable EV trips. Gas logistics may be a lot easier to disrupt than a lot of people expect right now.
- SECProto 7y ago
  > I pay ~$1.25 in electricity to go 100km in my EV (overnight charging at home), someone in a comparable car would be paying about 10x as much. People, by and large, have not understood this. I understand this, but the numbers are incredibly location dependent. Where I am, there is no time of day metering, and electricity is $0.15/kWh. Gas is $1.16/litre. As an example, to drive 100km in a model 3 (20kWh) is about $3, vs my current fuel efficient Yaris (I get 5.9l/100km) is $6.85. At that price difference of $3.85/100km, I have to drive 500,000km for the fuel to break even with the purchase price difference. Different cars and target markets, of course, as you mention. I really want a large carbon tax placed on fuel, to make the calculation work for me to go electric. A $30k (Canadian) car would help the calculation, as well.
bluescrn 7y ago
Charging infrastructure seems likely to be a bottleneck, too. Not everyone can charge at home (on-street parking, apartments, etc). And then there’s the demands on the grid as an increasing number of people get home in the evening and start to charge their cars
namlem 7y ago
In terms of production, Tesla is definitely making moves to get to a mass production position. With their recent price drops, the Model 3 is actually pretty affordable. Tesla's big problem now is with marketing. Making money selling the Model S by word of mouth alone was easy, but that's not going to be possible with the Model 3,and Tesla still hasn't caught on despite weak sales. They need to start buying ads ASAP.
woodandsteel 7y ago
The boom is going to come pretty soon. According to the experts around 2023 dropping battery prices (they went down 35% in 2018 alone) means BEV's will reach sticker price parity with many comparable ICE's. Many of the big manufacturers have realized this in the last year or so, and are scrambling like crazy to get into EV's. The best example is VW, which in the last year has signed contracts for 48 billion dollars worth of batteries, and is building three big EV manufacturing plants and partially converting 4 old ICE plants, and has a couple of dozen models coming out in the next 5 years. If you want to follow these developments, a good source is cleantechnica.com. Another is electrek.co

ajross 7y ago

> The electric car industry hasn't remotely boomed. Plug-in electric sales in 2018 were up 61% over 2017, which was 51% higher than 2016 (via quick wikipedia check). What numbers would you want to see before calling that a "boom"? How much higher than 60% growth does something have to have before it's not "strangled"? I think that's silly. Clearly these things are going somewhere. Production at all levels is adapting to compete, and that means some areas (like Li production in the linked articles) are going to outstrip the field which remains limited by other things. But even right now they're clearly out of the "niche within a niche" category and growing very well.

sjwright 7y ago
Of course EVs are booming in relative terms. Things boom all the time in relative terms. That's not remarkable. The pure EV market will eventually dominate vehicle sales in most segments, and most of the rest will be PHEV. Have EVs even hit 1% of worldwide vehicle sales yet? Call me back when it passes 10% and we'll talk about an EV boom.
- Retric 7y ago
  We are well past that 1%. Global EV Sales In May 2019: Over 179,000 At 2.3% Market Share https://insideevs.com/news/357198/global-ev-sales-in-may-2019/ https://insideevs.com/news/357198/global-ev-sales-in-may-201... The current trend is under 4 years until EV’s are 10% of global car sales. It’s likely adoption will slow down at some point, but 50% of all new car sales being EV could happen within 10 years. Though it would take much longer for EV’s to represent 1/2 of all cars on the road.
  - ThomPete 7y ago
    Pretty sure that's relative to the sales not to how many cars are EV of the entire car fleet , also probably a bunch of hybrids in that too.
    - sp332 7y ago
      Yeah sjwright asked about sales and got an answer about sales.
      - sjwright 7y ago
        And I'm genuinely impressed that it's that high. I expected the Toyota Camrys and low cost Indian scooters to dwarf EV sales more than that—but I had forgotten about the Chinese manufacturers!
        benj111 7y ago
        "low cost Indian scooters" Would those actually be included in these figures?
sinistersnare 7y ago
Your argument reminds me of this (relevant) XKCD comic. https://xkcd.com/1102/ https://xkcd.com/1102/
m0zg 7y ago
Last month you ate one doughnut, this month you ate two, so month-to-month growth is 100%. Is your consumption of doughnuts booming? To say that it is, I'd need to see doughnuts replace a significant portion of your calorie intake first. Toyota RAV4 alone sold more than all plug-in cars combined.
- kurthr 7y ago
  Actually, the RAV4 is on track to sell only 450k total this year, while plug in electrics are on track to sell 3.5M. http://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-data/toyota/toyota-rav4/ http://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-data/toyota/toyota-rav4... Tesla alone (S, X, 3) will probably sell close to 350k (~85-90k/q), and they are not more than 10% of total EV.
  - m0zg 7y ago
    I meant in the US. In comparison all Tesla models sold 192K last year, for a marketshare of a whopping 1.1% (information is also from carsalesbase). It's funny that you're comparing US sales for Rav4 (just one of half a dozen popular Toyota models), with worldwide sales of electrics, and then extrapolate Tesla figures even though we're in the middle of the year. Out in the real world very few people can afford a $45k+ car.
    - benj111 7y ago
      Your point about the Rav 4 sales being US only is reasonable. I've tried looking for global sales, I've been unsuccessful so far. Apparently the biggest selling 'car' was the Ford F series, so not even one model and that sold just over a million. https://www.motoringresearch.com/car-news/worlds-best-selling-cars-2018/ https://www.motoringresearch.com/car-news/worlds-best-sellin... Edit: Biggest selling in the world, in 2018
bryanrasmussen 7y ago
yesterday I had a dollar in my pocket, today I have 2 dollars. Dollars in my pocket is booming right now. But relative to amount of dollars I have or that in the world, not so much. So I think other statistics would be more useful to determine quality of boom.
- noonespecial 7y ago
  The question is whether you'll have $3 in your pocket tomorrow and $4 the next day or $4 tomorrow and $8 the next.
  - bryanrasmussen 7y ago
    man if I had a dollar for every time I said If I had a dollar I'd never stop saying if I had a dollar. If I had a dollar.
- benj111 7y ago
  Length of boom? Sustainability of boom? The EV boom seems to tick both those boxes. Your wallet boom has only been going for a day, and you know better than me how sustainable it is.

Iv 7y ago

2 million of the 70 million cars produced annually in the world are electric. It went from fringe to industrial, talking about a boom is acceptable IMO. It still have a 35x potential growth, so it can "boom" again, but the EV industry now is huge

Marsymars 7y ago
> It still have a 35x potential growth, so it can "boom" again, but the EV industry now is huge One of the hyped upsides of electric cars is decreased maintenance costs leading to a decrease in per-km capital costs of driving. If this is true, unless induced demand from this causes people to drive more, EVs effectively will shrink the total car industry pie, leaving something less than 35x potential growth.
- londons_explore 7y ago
  I don't think the decreased maintenance costs will actually happen initially. Big design changes like the shift to EV require lots of new parts to be designed, and every new part has a non-zero chance of a reliability issue. 5 years time, we'll be talking about the motor mount point which rusts through and causes a chunk of EV cars to fail. A 2nd effect is as cars get more computerized, 3rd party repairs will get much harder, and manufacturers will drop support for first party repairs when it no longer makes financial sense, so a lot of otherwise good cars will get sent to the scrapheap because they couldn't get some firmware update etc. That will overall increase the cost of motoring.
  - foxylad 7y ago
    Disagree with maintenance: electric motors are enormously simpler than ICE, and really well understood. Removing high temperatures, fuel, lubrication and exhaust from the system is a huge advantage. Agree on digital scrapheap, although this applies to a lesser extent to ICE vehicle too. We should be demanding open sourcing of car code after warranty expires.
    - 7y ago

threeseed 7y ago

> with no serious competitors Seems to be a different story in the US versus Europe. In Europe they have a lot more competitors either with cars now or coming soon e.g. VW ID3, VW Polestar 2, BMW i3, Honda e, Peuegot e-208, Renault Zoe, Nissan Leaf, Hyundai Kona EV, Mercedes EQC400/EQS, Audi eTron, Jaguar I-PACE etc. Tesla has largely had the market to itself but now you are seeing much higher quality cars with only slightly less range.

shiftpgdn 7y ago
You can buy almost all of those cars in the US. My experience has been however that dealers have little to no interest in selling them to you.
- sokoloff 7y ago
  Dealers make most of their profits in the service bays, not on the sales floor. It's much better for them to make a few hundred dollars profit selling a car that will (statistically) regularly return to the service bays than to make a thousand or more on a car that will not darken their service bays nearly as often.
sjwright 7y ago
Most of those are either quirky and compromised or simply not (yet) available in serious quantities. I'm personally looking forward to the Hyundai/Kia models, as they seem to be closest to getting the formula right—enough range, enough power, enough fit and finish. Once the cost and supply of batteries is "solved" they could dominate the economy segment for a while.
- clouddrover 7y ago
  Volkswagen will likely soon overtake Hyundai with their MEB platform cars. The initial MEB models are: - Volkswagen ID.3: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A8cHHNPRg-c https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A8cHHNPRg-c - SEAT el-Born: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZI7WFtwc8g https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZI7WFtwc8g - Skoda Vision iV: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-f1g9xl6W_E https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-f1g9xl6W_E - Audi Q4 e-tron: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DiwevzHsCbU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DiwevzHsCbU Hyundai may also have some battery problems to deal with at the moment: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/electric-car-catches-fire-and-explodes-in-le-bizard-garage-1.5227665 https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/electric-car-catches...

ineedasername 7y ago

They have booked relative to prior production and future estimates for production are on the rise. Volkswagen for example is near the release of a car based on a new platform for mass production of a more affordable (than Tesla) option that falls at the lower end of the Tesla in terms of range. Many other examples abound. The very near future will show tremendous year over year growth in the EV sector. Seems like a boom to me.

joe-collins 7y ago

I think a robust charging network is a third dependency. You need to have a garage, or commute to someplace with or near a charger. Down here in San Diego (East County), I don't see a lot of the latter.

sjwright 7y ago
It's a dependency for dominating the entire vehicle market, but it's not a dependency for the substantial slice of the market with access to off-street parking at home. That's probably at least 10–20% of the market right there. Add to that the slice of the market with access to off-street parking at work which can be retrofitted for charging. As EV sales grow, car parking will adapt and recharging will be bundled into the cost of parking. That's another 10–20%. Once you've sold to those markets, the "robust charging network" will solve itself.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
richardw 7y ago
20k in US https://www.google.co.za/amp/s/electrek.co/2019/07/09/us-electric-car-charging-station-connectors/amp/ https://www.google.co.za/amp/s/electrek.co/2019/07/09/us-ele... 400k in China https://www.renewableenergyworld.com/articles/2019/07/the-number-of-public-charging-stations-for-evs-in-china-surges-505-in-may.html https://www.renewableenergyworld.com/articles/2019/07/the-nu... I'd bet that's where the shift comes from.
clouddrover 7y ago
Or go solar and charge anywhere you have daylight: - Experimental Toyota Prius: https://newatlas.com/toyota-prius-solar-roof/60461/ https://newatlas.com/toyota-prius-solar-roof/60461/ - Sono Sion: https://sonomotors.com/en/sion/ https://sonomotors.com/en/sion/ - Lightyear One: https://lightyear.one/ https://lightyear.one/ Even if you're only getting a small amount of range from solar in Winter, that's still less charging that has to come from the grid.

vvanders 7y ago

Tesla still doesn't have a rival in charging network or software. Having arrived at more than a few broken chargers the former is going to give them a lead for a good while.

clouddrover 7y ago
> Tesla still doesn't have a rival in charging network Depends where you are I suppose. In addition to Tesla's network, Europe has: - Ionity: https://ionity.eu/ https://ionity.eu/ - FastNed: https://fastnedcharging.com/en/ https://fastnedcharging.com/en/ - Allego: https://www.allego.eu/ https://www.allego.eu/ - GIREVE: https://www.gireve.com/en/ https://www.gireve.com/en/ And more. All standardized on CCS type 2 plugs which is another plus.
- WorldMaker 7y ago
  It's the US where there currently isn't a strong "second place" to Tesla yet. There are a lot of competitors depending on region, but that's also the problem is that there are so many competitors that quality is a very broad spectrum and margins are low. VW's (US EPA mandated) Electrify America (and its alliance in turn with players like ChargePoint) is probably the one to watch for up-and-coming national second place competitor to Tesla's charging network, but they are years behind in build out right now.
Sabinus 7y ago
How exclusive is the Tesla charging network? Is it available to use for other brands of electric car?
- dabeeeenster 7y ago
  I have a Nissan leaf. When I talk to people about it, it amazes me how many people think anyone can use the Tesla network. Noone other than Tesla cars can!
  - clouddrover 7y ago

693471 7y ago

You people are so obsessed over door handles. It's a hysteria. They're fine.

F_r_k 7y ago
They're expensive
- audunw 7y ago
  The Model 3 one? Doubt that they're significantly more expensive. They have some problem with frozen door handles which they should probably get some fix for, like putting in a heating element. That would add cost, but also not much.
  - sjwright 7y ago
    It's not so much about cost but rather simplicity of manufacturing, ease of use, robustness, and not signalling that they want to be clever for the sake of it. The door handles are a symptom of the design ego of Tesla. It's the same thing with the elimination of nearly all physical buttons. It's the right instinct but they've taken it too far.
    - 693471 7y ago
      Are you a Tesla owner or a troll? Because I'm an owner and can tell you this is an exaggeration. And the S and X door handles can be repaired for much less than people are buying the replacements. The rebuild kit uses stainless parts instead of cast. https://evtuning.com/products/model-s-door-handle-rebuild-kit-service https://evtuning.com/products/model-s-door-handle-rebuild-ki... I think you've forgotten of the days when you could literally snap door handles off of Audis by pulling too hard.

lettergram 7y ago

I suspect Tesla knows their space fairly well. Until there is a car that can go 400 miles on a single charge and recharge in 2 minutes, with cheap repairs and work well in all weather conditions for a decade or two, you won’t see the masses jump on EV. You may see people in cities (often these are more affluence). I don’t really see EV becoming wide spread (I.e. ~50% of the market) for at least 10-15 years. Even then, power prices will spike at homes. I don’t even want to imagine what that’ll cost.

russdill 7y ago
With an ev, you only need to wait on charging it you are taking a long trip. With an ICE you need to stop at a gas station pretty much every week.
sq_ 7y ago
Even if people's home power bills spike, they'll still save plenty of money by not paying for gas. In parts of the US, a decent commute will cost one $200 to $300 in gas a month, and charging an EV off the grid for the same range will cost a lot less.
- dTal 7y ago
  Is this really a good thing for the environment? Grid power is still mostly fossil. Even if we posit that fossil -> power station -> grid -> battery -> motors is, say, twice as efficient as fossil -> fueling station -> combustion engine, it's a lot more than twice as cheap. So wouldn't we expect the shift to EVs to cause energy consumption to rise, and hence also emissions? I understand the argument that it's easier to upgrade centralized power generation to green technologies than the entire fleet of vehicles, but the timing is critical if that is to be a net win for emissions, a nuance which seems to be swept under the rug as everyone's keen to avoid fuel taxes by switching to EVs. Of course, if everyone switches to EV electricity demand will spike and prices will rise, and governments will be eager to reclaim lost fuel tax revenue with other automobile focused taxes. It might not stay cheaper.
  - tonyedgecombe 7y ago

nardi 7y ago

> In my opinion Tesla needs to prepare to be in the budget space. They need to partner with an external manufacturer to sell a product with normal door handles that competes with Hyundai and Toyota. Because once the cost of batteries falls, I predict a substantial slice of their market will simply disappear to the economy manufacturers. I suspect that many people who love Telsa really just love the idea of electric vehicles and they'll be buying something more like the Kia Niro EV. In my opinion Apple needs to prepare to be in the budget space. They need to partner with an external manufacturer to sell a product with a physical keyboard that competes with Blackberry and Palm. Because once the cost of touchscreens falls, I predict a substantial slice of their market will simply disappear to the economy manufacturers. I suspect that many people who love Apple really just love the idea of smartphones and they'll be buying something more like the Blackberry Curve 8300. -sjwright, maybe, circa 2008

Brometheus 7y ago
http://www.wimjellema.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/Global-marketshare-smartphone-os-Q2-2016.png http://www.wimjellema.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/Global-...
- beaner 7y ago
  Wrong chart, it should be split by manufacturer.
  - amelius 7y ago
    And the areas should represent revenue, not number of users.
  - IshKebab 7y ago
    Depends what you care about. If you're writing apps it shouldn't.
    - pyduan 7y ago
      GP is talking about Tesla/Apple's business strategy, so clearly in this context a split by manufacturer is what they care about.

muzika 7y ago

Most people who buy Teslas don’t want “just” an EV, they want a TESLA.

saagarjha 7y ago
I guess it's good for Tesla that they've managed to make an EV that attractive.
sjwright 7y ago
Given that Tesla are currently one of few compelling EVs available in volume, that's an unproven thesis. Get back to me when there's direct competition from BMW, Mercedes, Volkswagen, Genesis etc with comparable products at comparable volumes. I think more than a few Tesla customers would be just as happy to be driving a G70 or C-Class EV. Don't get me wrong—I think the Model 3 is a (mostly) stellar product and I'd love nothing more than to see Tesla come to dominate American car manufacturing. But for that to happen they'll need to swallow their design egos and offer simpler cars with normal door handles and widely available parts for inexpensive repairs. Until that happens they'll find their growth ceiling very soon.

Theodores 7y ago

> normal door handles The business plan always was to start at the high end with the Roadster, then the deluxe sedan and then the affordable Model 3. The Model 3 has cheaper door handles than the Model S. Tesla is about building car factories rather than cars. Once you have the robots doing as they are told then you can make whatever you want. If you had to recycle a Lamborghini and a Dacia Sandero then you would probably end up with near equal piles of raw materials for both vehicles, give or take a bit of steel. The other input is energy. The cylinder head on the Lamborghini takes a bit more work to make than the lump of iron that comes with the Dacia. But, if you have built out lots of renewable power then you can get those CNC machines and other robots doing overtime. Tesla with their vertical integration business model are finding customers at their price point and they can't make cars quick enough. Despite the sceptics, it is working. Personally I think the budget space will be filled with an electric version of a 'Dacia Sandero' but made in China. EVs are more pleasant to be in as there is not the vibration and noise from the engine, or the local cloud of pollution. Because of this and the realities of driving in city/town areas there really is a need for a vehicle far simpler than a Model 3, something without the bells and whistles. Honda have something in the works that is nearer the brief. They are going with a low range EV that is not going to pretend to do hundreds of miles on a charge. This is for the two car family where car two just needs to do the shopping, pick the kids up and get into congestion charging zones. In China there are plenty of BYD fit for purpose EVs that are budget and will be making their way to Western markets in due course. The legacy brands in Europe and the USA are stuck with having to do things the old way with existing supply chains. To make an EV all they need is to buy the bits from Bosch and shove them in to final assembly but they aren't doing it.

atq2119 7y ago
Taking about legacy brands, most of them do have exactly those low range fully electric models available that you're talking about, e.g. the VW e-up, which is a great choice for a daily commute. They aren't very aggressive about growing the market though.
sjwright 7y ago
All true, but I still disagree that the Model 3 is affordable. It's still in the luxury space in terms of pricing.

Bombthecat 7y ago

Uhhhhh I still have no idea where I get the power from? I don't think I will see a power plug in the next ten years near my house (street)

audunw 7y ago
I'm pretty sure there's still 5 years worth of exponential growth potential from people who do have garages or otherwise will have the ability to pay for getting a plug somehow, and from new construction that's already set up for charging plugs (I believe it's required in some places like California now?) Then what will happen in the 5-10 year time frame is that EVs will be significantly cheaper than ICE vehicles (maybe not purchase price at first, but certainly TCO). Is there electricity anywhere near where you park? Think about what it would cost to set up a plug. It might be quite a bit, but unless electricity is really far away, it's not a crazy amount either. If buying an EV would save you a significant amount of money over a 10 year period, it's likely that you'd be willing to use some of that savings to pay to have a plug set up. Maybe you can't set up that plug yourself, but as long as you're willing to pay a bit extra over the cost of electricity, there's going to be companies willing to set up plugs along the street. Once investors see that the transition to EVs is guaranteed, I'm certain there will be a rush to put up chargers, since the company that gets a street is likely to keep a monopoly on that street for a long time. The other way to get street side charging is simply to get governments to do it. That's what Oslo has done. They started out being free, but now there's a reasonable fee on them, and I think that's much more sustainable. With some luck in the elections I could see something like that happening in several areas of the US. It'll be much easier to sell this policy once EVs are a bit cheaper, so I think it's possible if democrats gain some control, especially if they gain some support for some kind of Green New Deal. It's a great investment to boost the economy long term. Generates lots of decent work in the short term, and massive benefits to the public in the long term since it'll guarantee them cheap charging, leading to big savings to operate their vehicles. There's another way to think about it: setting up a plug for your car is a very tiny fraction of the work/infrastructure required for your apartment, which somehow you found the way to pay for (either directly, or through renting). This kind of work is relatively easy to finance if the demand is there, since it's an investment that's likely to last a very long time and generate a lot of value. There's also the fast charging model, which can be OK if you have a car with a fairly large battery and don't drive too much. You might be able to get by with charging once a week, and you could probably do it at a location where you'd spend some time anyway, such as a supermarket, near a restaurant or exercise studio. It causes some extra wear on the battery, but not an unreasonable amount.

Gravityloss 7y ago

But lithium is only a medium sized part of the battery by weight and cost.

deleted 7y ago

[deleted]

cletus 7y ago

What about the constraints of what the power grid can support in terms of mass EV rollout? What about the charging infrastructure itself? The first point in particular doesn't seem to get the attention it deserves. As an example some places (try to) ban crypto mining because the extra power load effectively makes power more expensive for everyone. The residential grid is built with a particular established demand for power. EV charging would significantly change that in many places.

wongarsu 7y ago
The power grid is built to handle peak demand. Residential charging is likely to peak at night, when domestic demand is at its lowest. If natural charging patterns are not advantageous enough it's fairly straight forward to install smart meters that charge a different electricity price depending on time of day. The options range from simple off-peak pricing already offered in many places all the way up to live updating prices based on electricity spot prices and transmission capacity (this would also go a long way towards using solar and wind more efficiently). The big problems are likely shops offering EV charging and industrial facilities with fairly constant power requirements charging trucks and heavy equipment. But those are comparatively easy to scale.
- opsroller 7y ago
  Hmm, if only there was a company who could help balance demand. https://www.tesla.com/megapack https://www.tesla.com/megapack
benj111 7y ago
It seems like EVs would add 25% to electricity demand. The big question is how you deal with the peaks. Ideally all cars would be able to charge overnight, so you could potentially spread that demand over 12 hours or more. https://www.engineering.com/ElectronicsDesign/ElectronicsDesignArticles/ArticleID/15971/How-Much-Electricity-Will-EVs-Require.aspx https://www.engineering.com/ElectronicsDesign/ElectronicsDes...
- 7y ago

ianai 7y ago

People HATE the maintenance requirements of cars. If Tesla can establish their cars as almost never needing service with a usable life of something closer to 1 million miles and decades of use then suddenly paying a premium for their models can be spread over much greater periods of time. Personally, I wish they would decouple the platform from the comfort center. Have chassis form factors for various purposes (single person/roadster, crossover, truck, utility, etc) and branded “comfort centers” housing the human interface stuff. Make it so the comfort center can be changed out when ever and keeping the same underlying platform.

rootusrootus 7y ago
That is a seriously high bar, and extremely unlikely (there are lots and lots of things on a car that break that have nothing to do with the drivetrain). I think a better first goal is to get the reliability up on par with the other domestic manufacturers, and get the repair time down to something comparable as well. I got pretty close a few weeks ago to picking up a Model 3P but the maintenance stories spooked me. I am just not enough of an EV/Tesla enthusiast to deal with that on my commuter car.
jamesmadison66 7y ago
is 1mil miles and low service reqs the actual current specs for Teslas?
clouddrover 7y ago
> If Tesla can establish their cars as almost never needing service Teslas have quite poor reliability so far: - https://www.thedrive.com/tech/27725/tesla-fleet-company-struggles-raise-questions-about-robotaxi-plans https://www.thedrive.com/tech/27725/tesla-fleet-company-stru... - https://www.thedrive.com/tech/27989/teslas-screen-saga-shows-why-automotive-grade-matters https://www.thedrive.com/tech/27989/teslas-screen-saga-shows... I'm sure Tesla will improve with time but they're not going to out-Toyota Toyota any time soon.
- hodr 7y ago
  It only took Kia 6 years to out-Toyota Toyota, that is to go from producing the worst mainstream cars in the us to the best in initial and 3 year quality metrics (and well above Toyota). (2009 when they built first US production line to 2015).

Zigurd 7y ago

Re " In my opinion Tesla needs to prepare to be in the budget space." There are entire large traditional car companies that build no, or very few, budget cars. To make electric cars cheaply, it will take several changes, some of which look promising, but should not be underestimated for time and difficulty: It will take widespread adoption of level 4 autonomy to make crashes rare Scaled-down lightweight EVs will have to become available and accepted, especially w.r.t. safety It will take finding the sweet spot for some markets: E.g. on-demand scooters, privately owned semi-enclosed trikes with light-enough removable battery packs for apartment dwellers, etc. Vehicles will need a "Cambrian explosion" of variety. It will take regulatory changes to support the above

WorldMaker 7y ago
Autonomy is a red herring to cheap. Other form factors are nice, but also indirectly related. On the other hand it may only take one tiny disruption in ICE engine supply chains, or one large production ramp up to an order of scale efficiency boost to drop EVs below ICE vehicle costs on a like-model for like-model basis. With all of the major German automakers now on an "electrify everything by 2023" plan, one or both of those disruptions may exactly happen within the next five years.

martythemaniak 7y ago

I mostly agree. I see the lengths to which people go to save a few cents on gas (like $1.20 vs $1.13/litre around here) and I can't help but think that once the "gas" price of EVs starts to permeate the mass consciousness, ICE vehicles are done for (outside of some specific niches). I pay ~$1.25 in electricity to go 100km in my EV (overnight charging at home), someone in a comparable car would be paying about 10x as much. People, by and large, have not understood this. As for Tesla, they don't have any intent on being in the proper budget space, ie $15k mini cars. They've stated they will release a compact car in 3-5 years (no other info), but I doubt it'll ever cost less than $25k, probably more like $30k. And that's probably just fine and dandy with Tesla, as Apple has shown capturing a high-end clientele and their fat profits is a great place to be. Their plan for the "budget" space is robotaxis, which of course depends on their FSD program. We'll see how that goes.

WorldMaker 7y ago
Yeah, I think the tipping point for gas price sensitivity to cede to a (much) faster boom in EVs is likely a lot closer than many analysts currently expect. Because that tipping point is also concomitant with the "range anxiety" switchover point. Once gas prices hit certain peaks, station shutdowns will snowball (as evidenced from previous events such as the 70s oil crisis, 00s recession, et al), and long range price volatility (rural/interstate gas prices versus daily driver city gas prices) will change the economics of a lot of long term trip planning quickly to ICE trips (back to) being as range sensitive or more than comparable EV trips. Gas logistics may be a lot easier to disrupt than a lot of people expect right now.
SECProto 7y ago
> I pay ~$1.25 in electricity to go 100km in my EV (overnight charging at home), someone in a comparable car would be paying about 10x as much. People, by and large, have not understood this. I understand this, but the numbers are incredibly location dependent. Where I am, there is no time of day metering, and electricity is $0.15/kWh. Gas is $1.16/litre. As an example, to drive 100km in a model 3 (20kWh) is about $3, vs my current fuel efficient Yaris (I get 5.9l/100km) is $6.85. At that price difference of $3.85/100km, I have to drive 500,000km for the fuel to break even with the purchase price difference. Different cars and target markets, of course, as you mention. I really want a large carbon tax placed on fuel, to make the calculation work for me to go electric. A $30k (Canadian) car would help the calculation, as well.

bluescrn 7y ago

Charging infrastructure seems likely to be a bottleneck, too. Not everyone can charge at home (on-street parking, apartments, etc). And then there’s the demands on the grid as an increasing number of people get home in the evening and start to charge their cars

namlem 7y ago

In terms of production, Tesla is definitely making moves to get to a mass production position. With their recent price drops, the Model 3 is actually pretty affordable. Tesla's big problem now is with marketing. Making money selling the Model S by word of mouth alone was easy, but that's not going to be possible with the Model 3,and Tesla still hasn't caught on despite weak sales. They need to start buying ads ASAP.

woodandsteel 7y ago

The boom is going to come pretty soon. According to the experts around 2023 dropping battery prices (they went down 35% in 2018 alone) means BEV's will reach sticker price parity with many comparable ICE's. Many of the big manufacturers have realized this in the last year or so, and are scrambling like crazy to get into EV's. The best example is VW, which in the last year has signed contracts for 48 billion dollars worth of batteries, and is building three big EV manufacturing plants and partially converting 4 old ICE plants, and has a couple of dozen models coming out in the next 5 years. If you want to follow these developments, a good source is cleantechnica.com. Another is electrek.co