8 ms·

In a Newly Bipolar World, Europe Is Caught in the Middle

29 points by dakna 7y ago

empath75 7y ago
It would be a hell of a lot less confusing if it were actually bipolar. With the ongoing collapse of American hegemony, pretty much everyone is on their own now.
- antupis 7y ago
  American hegemony is pretty the same state that the British empire after Booer wars. Empire is definitely the most powerful nation in the world but it is fastly losing its momentum, it has some domestic policy problems and it is not invisible anymore.
  - raxxorrax 7y ago
    Top Talent tends to strive for freedom, so there is no immediate threat from China yet.
  - noir_lord 7y ago
    The US won't enter first amongst equals til it's GDP per capita equals that of other developed western nations, their high GDP with a large population means they already punch way above their weight economically and militarily. The British Empire was different, we owned a lot of territory but we didn't have a military build up like the US (adjusting for time period).
_hao 7y ago
Where's Russia in this mix? Russia has been meddling with European affairs for hundreds of years. The world is definitely not bipolar, US's hegemony after the collapse of the USSR is quickly disappearing. China is the latest player to enter the game, but it's true that Europe is between the hammer and anvil and battered on all sides by the US, Russia and China.
- roenxi 7y ago
  Russia isn't all that big in economic terms [0]. Really only China, America, Europe and maybe India are serious players in terms of how much real might they can marshal for sustained pressure. Most countries are powerful players, but the economic giants are in a class of their own. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)
  - _hao 7y ago
    See that's the thing. It doesn't matter that Russia is an economical midget. They hold the keys for the energy sector in Europe - Russian fossil fuels supply Europe with energy. And as far as military power goes, many people underestimate Russia, but they took Crimea, they keep sowing disarray in Ukraine, Syria and now Georgia again. And that's even before talking about their influence in elections and paid diplomats that push for pro-Russian agenda.
    - 0815test 7y ago
      Energy sector? Renewable energy is actually becoming cheaper than fossil fuels. It doesn't matter. And foreign-policy-wise they're not even trying to seriously wield "influence" that could actually be positive for them in the longer run. They can "sow disarray" all they want, even on Twitter and Facebook for that matter but that's theater. It's a bit of cheap lulz at the West's expense.
      - _hao 7y ago
        I'm not saying this will continue in the future. I'm just saying that right now there are a lot of European countries that are at the mercy of Russia when it comes to energy. In my home country Russian influence is very strong. Is not just cheap Twitter and Facebook tantrums. It's full scale invasion in every part of the government. They've been quite successful actually.
        lostmsu 7y ago
yogthos 7y ago
China is clearly a rising power in the world while US is on the way out. All the manufacturing is happening in China, their tech industry is growing rapidly, and their education system is much better. For the longest time US had the advantage of being able to attract top talent from around the world, but that's rapidly changing with the states becoming increasingly insular and jingoistic.
- agumonkey 7y ago
  China is still a bit of a bet. Is anyone sure their growth will be built on solid foundations ? If so then yeah, they'll probably be the next pole. Although, in a way, I'm not sure poles will be a good description. Manufacturing will decrease in China, while other countries are trying to relocalize. It might be a flatter network of ~peers in the future.
  - coldtea 7y ago
    >China is still a bit of a bet. Is anyone sure their growth will be built on solid foundations? Is anyone sure the kind of foundations the west considers "solid" are the only solid ones?
    - agumonkey 7y ago
      Good point
    - whatshisface 7y ago
      The idea that corrupt dictatorships don't work out in the long run is not based on the average American's favorite flavor of ice cream, it's based on the vast majority of countries in history.
      - aunty_helen 7y ago
        Recent history. The idea was proven out by the Romans and Egyptians on 1-2 magnitude larger times scales than which western society has existed.
claydavisss 7y ago
Clarifying this situation is simple. European nations continue to benefit from the hegemony of the US via NATO but insist on sneering at America nonetheless. I would like to make Ms. Merkel happy and allow European nations to cede from NATO. If we're so dirty and uncooth, please provide for your own defense Ms. Merkel! If Europe is the new superstate she and Macron insist it is, I see no reason why they can't form an army (and pay for it). In American eyes, Europe will revert to its previous capability of being a very low-tech continent-sized early warning system for Russian aggression. The Russian occupation of Ukraine hasn't impacted Americans one iota and at this point they might as well occupy Berlin too. Maybe it will help clarify "who your friends are" for average Germans.
mothsonasloth 7y ago
Its interesting when you read any science fiction or watch movies and TV e.g. Firefly, Blade Runner, Altered Carbon, Fifth Element etc. In all of those there is this common theme of a major melding of Western and Chinese culture. Will life imitate art in this case?
- alexgmcm 7y ago
  Perhaps. But in the 80's many thought that Japan would overtake the US so that dominated sci-fi and popular fiction. (see the cyberpunk tropes of Zaibatsus etc.) Didn't turn out that way though.
Proven 7y ago
Those obsessed with delusions of grandeur and globalists worry about the role of EU (which is a joke, and besides the EU will fall apart before the US and China). Normal people are concerned about their personal and family affairs, and beyond that want to influence others by persuasion rather employ coercive power of state.
hellenawaweru 7y ago
good to know more about bipolar. as i was growing up i always thought that bipolar is a condition https://finance.uonbi.ac.ke/node/907 https://finance.uonbi.ac.ke/node/907

29 points by dakna 7y ago

It would be a hell of a lot less confusing if it were actually bipolar. With the ongoing collapse of American hegemony, pretty much everyone is on their own now.

antupis 7y ago
American hegemony is pretty the same state that the British empire after Booer wars. Empire is definitely the most powerful nation in the world but it is fastly losing its momentum, it has some domestic policy problems and it is not invisible anymore.
- raxxorrax 7y ago
  Top Talent tends to strive for freedom, so there is no immediate threat from China yet.
- noir_lord 7y ago
  The US won't enter first amongst equals til it's GDP per capita equals that of other developed western nations, their high GDP with a large population means they already punch way above their weight economically and militarily. The British Empire was different, we owned a lot of territory but we didn't have a military build up like the US (adjusting for time period).

_hao 7y ago

Where's Russia in this mix? Russia has been meddling with European affairs for hundreds of years. The world is definitely not bipolar, US's hegemony after the collapse of the USSR is quickly disappearing. China is the latest player to enter the game, but it's true that Europe is between the hammer and anvil and battered on all sides by the US, Russia and China.

roenxi 7y ago
Russia isn't all that big in economic terms [0]. Really only China, America, Europe and maybe India are serious players in terms of how much real might they can marshal for sustained pressure. Most countries are powerful players, but the economic giants are in a class of their own. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)
- _hao 7y ago
  See that's the thing. It doesn't matter that Russia is an economical midget. They hold the keys for the energy sector in Europe - Russian fossil fuels supply Europe with energy. And as far as military power goes, many people underestimate Russia, but they took Crimea, they keep sowing disarray in Ukraine, Syria and now Georgia again. And that's even before talking about their influence in elections and paid diplomats that push for pro-Russian agenda.
  - 0815test 7y ago
    Energy sector? Renewable energy is actually becoming cheaper than fossil fuels. It doesn't matter. And foreign-policy-wise they're not even trying to seriously wield "influence" that could actually be positive for them in the longer run. They can "sow disarray" all they want, even on Twitter and Facebook for that matter but that's theater. It's a bit of cheap lulz at the West's expense.
    - _hao 7y ago
      I'm not saying this will continue in the future. I'm just saying that right now there are a lot of European countries that are at the mercy of Russia when it comes to energy. In my home country Russian influence is very strong. Is not just cheap Twitter and Facebook tantrums. It's full scale invasion in every part of the government. They've been quite successful actually.
      - lostmsu 7y ago

yogthos 7y ago

China is clearly a rising power in the world while US is on the way out. All the manufacturing is happening in China, their tech industry is growing rapidly, and their education system is much better. For the longest time US had the advantage of being able to attract top talent from around the world, but that's rapidly changing with the states becoming increasingly insular and jingoistic.

agumonkey 7y ago
China is still a bit of a bet. Is anyone sure their growth will be built on solid foundations ? If so then yeah, they'll probably be the next pole. Although, in a way, I'm not sure poles will be a good description. Manufacturing will decrease in China, while other countries are trying to relocalize. It might be a flatter network of ~peers in the future.
- coldtea 7y ago
  >China is still a bit of a bet. Is anyone sure their growth will be built on solid foundations? Is anyone sure the kind of foundations the west considers "solid" are the only solid ones?
  - agumonkey 7y ago
    Good point
  - whatshisface 7y ago
    The idea that corrupt dictatorships don't work out in the long run is not based on the average American's favorite flavor of ice cream, it's based on the vast majority of countries in history.
    - aunty_helen 7y ago
      Recent history. The idea was proven out by the Romans and Egyptians on 1-2 magnitude larger times scales than which western society has existed.

claydavisss 7y ago

Clarifying this situation is simple. European nations continue to benefit from the hegemony of the US via NATO but insist on sneering at America nonetheless. I would like to make Ms. Merkel happy and allow European nations to cede from NATO. If we're so dirty and uncooth, please provide for your own defense Ms. Merkel! If Europe is the new superstate she and Macron insist it is, I see no reason why they can't form an army (and pay for it). In American eyes, Europe will revert to its previous capability of being a very low-tech continent-sized early warning system for Russian aggression. The Russian occupation of Ukraine hasn't impacted Americans one iota and at this point they might as well occupy Berlin too. Maybe it will help clarify "who your friends are" for average Germans.

mothsonasloth 7y ago

Its interesting when you read any science fiction or watch movies and TV e.g. Firefly, Blade Runner, Altered Carbon, Fifth Element etc. In all of those there is this common theme of a major melding of Western and Chinese culture. Will life imitate art in this case?

alexgmcm 7y ago
Perhaps. But in the 80's many thought that Japan would overtake the US so that dominated sci-fi and popular fiction. (see the cyberpunk tropes of Zaibatsus etc.) Didn't turn out that way though.

Proven 7y ago

Those obsessed with delusions of grandeur and globalists worry about the role of EU (which is a joke, and besides the EU will fall apart before the US and China). Normal people are concerned about their personal and family affairs, and beyond that want to influence others by persuasion rather employ coercive power of state.

hellenawaweru 7y ago

good to know more about bipolar. as i was growing up i always thought that bipolar is a condition https://finance.uonbi.ac.ke/node/907 https://finance.uonbi.ac.ke/node/907