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I'm in Hong Kong and went to the protests today. This feels like a continuation of the '14 umbrella movement, which was ended by police force, and which left up
by kenneth 7y ago
I'm in Hong Kong and went to the protests today. This feels like a continuation of the '14 umbrella movement, which was ended by police force, and which left up pent-up anger in the whole population. It's the biggest protest since the march in '97 when HK was handed over to China from British rule.
When I was there, the protests were peaceful, but you could certainly feel a tension building up, with the crowds gathering metal poles and bricks. I spoke to the police a few times and they were nice and friendly, but were doing their job. There is absolutely zero question that almost the entire HK population opposes the extradition bill which sparked this whole mess. Unfortunately, there's little that can be done… "one country two system" hasn't been abided to by China for a long time, and there's nothing the population or the Brits can do about it.
(My perspective is that of a foreigner who recently moved here, not a life-long hongkonger. Feel free to ask me anything.)
- muricula 7y agoAre there options for recalling the legislature or triggering new elections, similar to a British vote of no-confidence?
- kenneth 7y agoNo, not really. The government has been stacked with pro-Beijing people, who have all the executive and legislative power. The only choice people have is to vote for new representative, from a slate of options picked out by the CCP. That was the reason for the 3-month long '14 protests. You can see their effect today.
- i_am_nomad 7y agoHow did the HK government get stacked that way, though - does the CCP formally pick out candidates, or is there something else going on?
- usaar333 7y agoThe legislature isn't fully democratically elected. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legislative_Council_of_Hong_Kong https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legislative_Council_of_Hong_Ko... In fact the pro-Beijing groups have never actually won an election, but always controlled Legco: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pro-democracy_camp_(Hong_Kong) https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pro-democracy_camp_(Hong_Kon... (To be fair, similar but less extreme issues exist in the United States where executive and legislative power doesn't cleanly map to votes)
- muricula 7y agoThere are no paramilitary/security forces loyal to Hong Kong capable of a coup, right? Just trying to put it in context with contentious protests in other nations.
- mulderc 7y agoThe short answer is no. The People's Liberation Army has a Hong Kong garrison with ~6000 troops that could crush pretty much any coup attempt. The only security force that could even in theory do what you are asking about would be the HK police force which has ~30000 officers. This doesn't even get into the bigger logistical issues around HK severing ties to mainland china. Last I checked HK is depended on water from the mainland which makes being fully independent of mainland china basically impossible.
- faissaloo 7y ago6000 troops isn't alot
- Sendotsh 7y ago6000 troops on the ground locally, with support from the largest standing army in the world nearby.
- mulderc 7y agoMore than enough to deal with any other form of armed opposition in the city. There is a question of just how far the PLA would be willing to go if things got out of hand, but that really isn't something anyone wants to test.
- faissaloo 7y agoI disagree. A government usually requires less than 4% of the population forming an armed resistance to remove them, the protests have turned out about 14%. Assuming your typical home made bomb kills about 4 soldiers it would take 1500 bombs and that's not even including casualties from other things, a single person could probably accrue that across the span of about a year if they built 4 a day. 12 people could do it in a month, plus say 40 people for carrying out the operations and acquisition of materials, give or take so lets say 60 people per unit of the resistance, that's like 280000 resistance operations going simultaneously. Obviously I'm making alot of assumptions here, but I think they're reasonable. The real tricky bit is what you do after you remove the government as demonstrated by Libya and Syria.
- JumpCrisscross 7y agoPlease let us know how those of us overseas can be helpful. It’s tragic to be witnessing the disassembly of a system of limited democracy and rule of law like this, by force.
- trevyn 7y agoThe bigger question might be, what price are you willing to pay? The Communist Party of China is now deeply entwined in the global economy.
- taiwanboy 7y agoI have an opposite view: once US and China disentangle via the complete tariff on all Chinese goods in June, China will become inward focused and isolationist, part of the protectionist trends around the world. It will have way less trade ties with others, since low end manufacturing will have completed its move out of China
- adventured 7y agoEurope is a very important component there as well. The EU plus wider Europe is an economy the size of the US, so a very substantial part of the global economy to say the least. It remains to be seen exactly how Europe will go in regards to dealing with China. I think that will have a considerable impact on the extent of China's economic isolation, if that is to be (assuming they don't liberalize access to their economy and end various negative trade practices). Obviously most of the major economies of Europe are increasingly debating how to handle China. In terms of potentially limiting China's access to their markets, limiting the ability of China to buy their companies, forced technology transfer, and so on. The outcome of which way/s Europe breaks on this topic is an interesting wrench in the whole thing (eg Western Europe might put up further defenses, while parts of Southern Europe and Eastern Europe + Russia may go more heavily with China). If you're eg German automobile makers or Italian & French fashion / cosmetics companies (LVMH is drowning in Chinese sales presently, making Bernard Arnault worth nearly $100b), you desperately want to maintain full access to China at low tariffs.
- theslurmmustflo 7y agoIs there police from mainland China or are they local to HK? Would they always side with mainland interests?
- Leary 7y agonope.. Only local HK police.
- toyg 7y agoFrom what I’ve read in British sources, there are persistent rumors about this but it’s all officially denied.
- sithadmin 7y agoLocal HK police. >Would they always side with mainland interests? It's not as if HK has means to resist the PLA, so...more than likely, yes.
- em500 7y agoPolice from HK, military forces from China (though they're not involved in these matters). But like in most civilized countries, the police is there to uphold current law and order, not to side with some national or political interest.
- Joakal 7y agoChina Tiananmen square incident, the local military wouldn't get rid of protestors. The government had to get military further away to do it. With Hong Kong, the government can't do it as the country is too small. The only option is Chinese military. If you say the Chinese military is there, then a massacre is inevitable.
- spacehunt 7y agoLocal HK police, of which most have a deep hatred towards the protestors since the 2014 Occupy and have been waiting for opportunities to carry out revenge. Such sentiments were on full display yesterday.
- 7y ago
- dmix 7y ago> and there's nothing the population or the Brits can do about it. Do you see this attitude reflected in the other protestors you've met there?
- kenneth 7y agoPretty much. I don't think anyone has much hope of achieving change, but they protest anyways because they feel it's their civic duty.
- my_username_is_ 7y agoFrom what I gather from people, their only hope is that the international & business communities put enough pressure on Beijing to get them to back down. It seems quite unlikely at this point, but that doesn't make the protesters less passionate
- voodoo1997 7y agoAre you concerned at all about being photographed, identified and placed on a blacklist?