13 ms·

New Evidence Suggests Satoshi Nakamoto Is Paul Le Roux

181 points by jbegley 7y ago

jimbob45 7y ago
Why say Paul Solotshi instead of Paul Le Roux, a name everyone is far more familiar with? None of the evidence presented was compelling. It was circumstantial at best. Save yourself the five minutes it takes to read this article.
- the_watcher 7y ago
  Seriously. The author apparently considers "both are familiar with payments" evidence.
  - dmix 7y ago
    What is the "new evidence" mentioned in the headline?
    - the_watcher 7y ago
      The only "new" bit of verifiable information is that a link to Paul Le Roux's Wikipedia page appears unredacted in a document presented by Wright in which most other specific names are redacted because he claimed their exposure could put him at risk (implication being that he helped put criminals away). Everything else just starts from "Le Roux may be Satoshi" and employs conspiracy theorist logic to get there ("He uses an alias that kind of sounds a little like Satoshi - Solotshi. This suggests that he IS Satoshi.")
      - Hasknewbie 7y ago
        As ridiculous as it is, that's still more researched than that idiotic Newsweek article...
      - mthoms 7y ago
        Well, the TrueCrypt link (if proven) is very interesting. Both TrueCrypt and Bitcoin share similar ideologies and both are extraordinary ambitious feats of (anonymous) C++ engineering. I'm inclined to think there aren't many people in the world who possess the skills necessary and at the same time the need to preserve absolute anonymity at all costs. The number of (non governmental) people in the world who intersect those two things really can't be more than a handful. To be clear, I'm not saying I believe all this - just that there is a fair amount more to it than similar aliases. I'd be interested to see some analysis of the C++ code in both projects to see if they share any idiosyncrasies.
        dmix 7y ago
        Wouldn't it be easy to compare the TrueCrypt C++ code with Bitcoins? Programming a project of that size by a solo developer must have similar patterns and quirks. I don't think anyone is capable of faking that for long unless they tried to make it as generic as possible`.
        AdmiralAsshat 7y ago
        > Well, the TrueCrypt link (if proven) is very interesting. The only link that the article mentions is that Satoshi used TrueCrypt. So what? TrueCrypt was the gold standard for encrypted drives which everyone in the tinfoil hat community used until it shut down. It would be like trying to draw a link between a real person and a pseudonymous identity because both of them were known to have an iPhone.
        mthoms 7y ago
        The article (and my comment) suggests a possible link because both projects (1) are so advanced that only a very elite calibre of developer could have produced them; (2) used the same language; (3) had similar ideologies/goals; and (4) had an author who insisted on complete anonymity. It's no smoking gun but it's certainly interesting. >It would be like trying to draw a link between a real person and a pseudonymous identity because both of them were known to have an iPhone. Ridiculous. Having an iPhone is exceedingly common. Having the above mentioned qualities in common, while not unheard of, is certainly rare.
  - playeren 7y ago
    Oh my god. I AM SATOSHI!? I have read a bit about Le Roux over the years, and I got an impression of someone who always seeks the short term benefit (albeit often a quite sizeable benefit) over a long term benefit. Among droves of other crazy things, the guy was trying to set himself up as a warlord in Somalia, allegedly aiming to provide mercenary services to highest bidder. It's really hard for me to reconcile someone like that with the thoughtful debate SN dealt in. But that's mostly my biases talking, and less an objective analysis.
- bena 7y ago
  "Circumstantial" does not mean "weak". Circumstantial evidence is often strong enough and compelling enough to determine court cases. Circumstantial evidence is often better than direct evidence. Circumstantial evidence: Stuff like DNA, fingerprints Direct evidence: Bob's memory of the event. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Circumstantial_evidence https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Circumstantial_evidence But please, continue using "the evidence is circumstantial" as if it means that it's not good enough.
  - N_trglctc_joe 7y ago
    This is a really good point. Direct evidence of Satoshi's identity can only be in the form of someone claiming to be him, and that just wouldn't be credible. Circumstantial evidence is all we're going to get; even somebody spending Satoshi's BTC wouldn't be direct evidence since, as the article points out, someone else could have obtained (and be in the process of cracking) his hard drives.
    - bena 7y ago
      People just way too often ape legal procedural shows where people will exclaim that "all this evidence is circumstantial" as if that's an actual problem. You can say that about most evidence. Even the classic "smoking gun" metaphor is an example of circumstantial evidence. It's just a way for people to dismiss a claim without actually having to argue against a claim. If the evidence is tenuous or weak, explain why. For instance, the fact that Solotshi is similar to Satoshi. That's just dumb. If you're going to pick a pseudonym to hide your identity for the long term, you don't pick one that's just a variation of your name. However, if every other piece of evidence was much better, then dude just picked a bad pseudonym. And we also have to consider that a lot of weak signals can become a strong signal. Like the name thing is what I'd call an extremely weak signal. But if there's an overwhelming flood of such weak signals, then it starts looking much more likely.
  - michaelterryio 7y ago
    Yes! And eye witness testimony is often terrible. It's disappointing that circumstantial evidence gets such a bad rap. Very unlikely things happen all the time. But beyond a certain level of unlikeliness, combined with a strong motive, it has to be enough. And of course in practice everyone gets this because cases are decided every day by this implicit understanding. Some circumstantial evidence is very strong, as when you find a trout in the milk. -- Henry David Thoreau
- strikelaserclaw 7y ago
  Damn dude, that guy is like Walter White.
- brokenkebab 7y ago
  Because SatoSHI, SolotSHI - we found him! CASE CLOSED!
  - netsharc 7y ago
    Wasn't that a Newsweek conclusion? They found some guy named Nakamoto and concluded so. Yay Journalism! https://www.newsweek.com/newsweeks-statement-bitcoin-story-231242 https://www.newsweek.com/newsweeks-statement-bitcoin-story-2...
nostrademons 7y ago
I'd still bet on Hal Finney, RIP.
- api 7y ago
  If so that means the creator of the first true cryptocurrency is currently frozen in liquid nitrogen awaiting potential revival in the future, which is even more evidence that we are in fact living in a cyberpunk novel. All we need now is a Rastafarian operated space station at one of the Lagrange points.
  - nostrademons 7y ago
    We also have pervasive surveillance, drones that bomb enemies of the state at their weddings, social credit scores, masses who are addicted to their (two way, voice controlled!) telescreens, bionic humans with RFID chips embedded in their hands, reality TV stars running the government, people drinking green mush called Soylent, reusable rockets to colonize Mars, a cloud of Internet-bearing satellites surrounding the earth, and a cult of rich people who think time is going to end as AI takes over and technological progress accelerates to a singularity. We are living in a cyberpunk novel.
    - ramses0 7y ago
      "The future is already here, it's just not evenly distributed." - W. Gibson
    - Aaronstotle 7y ago
      Add to that corporations with more power than governments (Facebook,Amazon,Google), and that the eco-systems around us are being pushed to their breaking points. I think people don't think we're in a cyberpunk novel because the world isn't bathed in neon lights.
      - cr0sh 7y ago
        > Add to that corporations with more power than governments (Facebook,Amazon,Google) Until one of the FAANGs get access and control to their own nuclear weapon and/or military - they unequivocally do not have more power than governments do. Governments (in general) have a monopoly on the power to kill their citizens and (potentially) the citizens of other governments/countries. None of the FAANGs have that (that we know of).
darkpuma 7y ago
Every time I read one of these theories it sounds pretty convincing. This one too. Yet they can't all be right.
chvid 7y ago
Why all this silliness? Everyone knows it was made by the grumpy Aussie man.
- tim333 7y ago
  Unlikely.
  - jtms 7y ago
    It was clearly a joke - he means the opposite of what was said, but thanks for spelling out the obvious
avs733 7y ago
So sincere question...does this matter? What is added to the social value of bitcoin or cryptocurrency in general? I'm not asking to just dismiss it...just why we are perpetually having/focusing on this discussion is intriguing to me
- TomVDB 7y ago
  At the very least, this story matters just the way general human interest stories matter, as entertainment.
- gtirloni 7y ago
  It matters as much as the new royal baby. People have a fixation with these things.
  - avs733 7y ago
    So that was my initial (curmudgeonly) reaction but I posted my question with an open mind and the responses have honestly changed my perspective.
- jimbob45 7y ago
  He would reach mythical status if he were found to have upended both the cryptographic industry and financial industry as well as run a multi-continental crime empire.
  - vkou 7y ago
    > if he were found to have upended both the cryptographic industry and financial industry How exactly has he up-ended the financial industry? None of the differences in how 99.9% of the world pays for things, over the past 10 years, have anything to do with BTC. How has he upended the cryptographic industry? Nobody actually building products, or using cryptography for useful things is basing it off BTC. BTC created a new financial market, sure. It has not 'upended' industries that solve actual problems.
    - 7y ago
1121redblackgo 7y ago
Nick Szabo
hartator 7y ago
Gimlet media released a podcast about him: https://gimletmedia.com/shows/reply-all/dvhd9k/136-the-founder https://gimletmedia.com/shows/reply-all/dvhd9k/136-the-found... His huge interest for gold, programming, encryption, and his global distrust of the state makes me believe he can also have created Bitcoin.
- scottlocklin 7y ago
  He also ran a crazy criminal empire denoted in gold bricks, which seems like a pretty stupid hobby if you invented bitcoin. It was Hal Finney (and maybe Szabo). It's obvious.
staplers 7y ago
After 7 years in the crypto space, I'm still not convinced of any particular Satoshi theory. That being said, Nick Szabo, Hal Finney, and Paul Le Roux all have decent evidence pointing to them.
- mirimir 7y ago
  I vaguely recall reading about Bitcoin development in ~darknet forums, during 2010-2012. But only vaguely, and I retained no logs. There were hints, I think, that developers were Australian. Edit: OK, maybe it was earlier. I did say vaguely.
  - staplers 7y ago
    Bitcoin was created in Jan 2009.. so the "developers" you are thinking of could have begun contributing after Satoshi
    - acapybara 7y ago
      Correct. And the whitepaper was published in 2008.
    - mirimir 7y ago
      I've been following cypherpunks related stuff since the mid 90s. But I've kept no notes or records. So I don't exactly recall the timeframe. But it was definitely years before the whitepaper. And as I said, I recall hints that developers were Australian. Actually, perhaps I do have records. But finding them would be nontrivial. I have lots of old FDE drives. But no labels about content, for obvious reasons.
- user17843 7y ago
  I think it was a combined persona from Nick and Hal, with Nick doing most of the writing in the forum.
- WalterBright 7y ago
  Hal was in the dorm room next to mine at Caltech. It's just like him to be Satoshi. Hal was a great guy, wicked smart even for Caltech, and his sense of humor fits right in with being the anonymous creator. I have no idea about the other two fellows, but my money's on Hal just because I want it to have been him!
mirimir 7y ago
Interesting, I suppose. But I wonder if Craig Wright does in fact have a bunch of FDE drives that he's trying to crack. And if they are Le Roux's drives, I wonder what will go down if he ever gets released.
mrkramer 7y ago
He is probably not Satoshi because Bitcoin was meant to be everything opposite of a currency for money laundering hence triple ledger accounting aka blockchain. After all see Bitcoin whitepaper and read carefully each sentence and you will realize it was meant for internet commerce and last thing you want in ecommerce is fraud and money laundering. On the other hand Craig Wright is the most possible candidate for Satoshi by far. There are too many clues leading to him for example like this one https://seclists.org/basics/2006/Mar/270 https://seclists.org/basics/2006/Mar/270 or a small detail like word "bloody" which Satoshi used and it is usual for people using British vocab which Craig being Australian uses, I heard it in his presentations. And btw Craig said he was involved in cracking of TrueCrypt with law enforcement that explains why creator of TrueCrypt is mentioned in court documents.
- JohnJamesRambo 7y ago
  Craig Wright is not Satoshi, that is absurd. Research it more and come back to us. If he ever wanted to prove it he could easily do so by moving any of the early coins etc. Instead of his fraudulent signatures added after the fact and all his other shenanigans.
  - bepvte 7y ago
    Craig Wright is commonly known as "Faketoshi" in the community due to how much he claims he is Satoshi.
    - mlcrypto 7y ago
      Another theory says that is the perfect way to hide in plain sight if you were the real Satosh
      - drexlspivey 7y ago
        Or you know, if you want to hide the fact that you are satoshi don't tell people you are satoshi?
tptacek 7y ago
Evidence: * Both Le Roux and Satoshi did significant cryptography projects. * Both Le Roux and Satoshi work in C++. * Wright claimed in legal filings to have been involved with Le Roux. * Allegedly, Wright and a friend have built a cluster of computers to crack secrets, which the theory presumes to be the password for a TrueCrypt volume with Le Roux's bitcoin key. * Le Roux has an alias, "Solotshi", which sounds like Satoshi. * Le Roux published a short manifesto, long before Bitcoin, that echoes some Bitcoin principles. * Satoshi disappeared at about the same time Le Roux was really kicking his criminal conspiracy into gear. * A forum post presaging Bitcoin was posted from the Netherlands, where Le Roux is from. I mean, judge this stuff for yourself. Independently: a lot of people want this to be true.
- CiPHPerCoder 7y ago
  I want this to be true so we can stop having stories written about it once and for all. (I mean, why does it matter? Someone desires privacy, and we as a community are hellbent on depriving them of any... what does that say about our moral character?)
  - BinaryIdiot 7y ago
    > I want this to be true so we can stop having stories written about it once and for all. Yup, I'm with you. At this point I don't care what the truth is, it would just be nice for it to be out in the open so the nonsense articles we get every single year stop.
  - johnnycab 7y ago
    >(I mean, why does it matter? Someone desires privacy, and we as a community are hellbent on depriving them of any... what does that say about our moral character?) Are you talking about Paul Le Roux or Craig Wright? Both of them have been actively craving recognition and courting notoriety of their own accord, for differing reasons ─ either due a flaw in their character or empty spots in their souls, probably not related to their genius. Regardless, they are not seeking any kind of redemption or permission from anyone, nor do they have any desire for privacy; although Paul Le Roux is already semi-anonymous due to his status as an asset.
gwbas1c 7y ago
Reads like a conspiracy theory. That being said, as much merit as the theory has, there's far too much allusion to circumstance to believe this.
Sschellbach 7y ago
my conspiratorial reaction to all these conspiracies about paul le roux is that this is propaganda to defame bitcoin by driving a narrative that bitcoin was created by a convicted vicious crime boss and informant. im not buyin
ilaksh 7y ago
Well, if I were a movie producer I might consider trying to put that movie out immediately. Before we find out who the actual Satoshi is -- assuming we will ever find out. Because it just sounds like the type of movie that Hollywood can sell. I mean Hollywood loves to glorify violence, and people already think that Bitcoin is mainly about criminal activity. However I am hoping that La Roux is not Satoshi, or at least that it is never proven. Because the association with criminal activities detracts from the positive effects that cryptocurrency can have in terms of improving society.
- wp381640 7y ago
  "Hunting LeRoux" - the book is already being turned into a film by Michael Mann[0] His story is more than interesting enough for an entire film without the Satoshi connection [0] https://www.latimes.com/books/la-ca-jc-evan-ratliff-elaine-shannon-paul-leroux-20190215-story.html https://www.latimes.com/books/la-ca-jc-evan-ratliff-elaine-s...
rdiddly 7y ago
Is it possible the name Paul Le Roux was left unredacted intentionally? I'm not familiar with Wright's case or possible motives; this is just a public service announcement that you should always look with suspicion at all "leaks." For some reason the idea that a piece of info came out inadvertently or accidentally is sufficiently distracting that few people will wonder whether that piece of info is true. Which means a viable strategy for anyone trying to make something look true, is to make it look like it was released accidentally.
I_am_tiberius 7y ago
I don't believe it, at all. I still very sure it's Nicks Szabo. Also if he blocked me on Twitter for no reason:)
- 781 7y ago
  The problem with Szabo is that nobody was able to locate any sort of code written by Szabo - ie, he doesn't seem to know how to program and the first version of Bitcoin is way beyond noob-level - crypto, GUI, distributed networking, ...
  - I_am_tiberius 7y ago
    In the podcast with Tim Ferriss he said he can code in C++.
    - 781 7y ago
      Well, none of his code is public. Furthermore, on his blog he wrote about a lot of topics - economics, history, politics, crypto contracts, but not even once about a programming topic.
      - SkyMarshal 7y ago
        Szabo was a University of Washington compsci undergrad, and then an engineer at Digicash and a certificate authority company (forgot which). Then he went to law school. So he definitely knows how to code, but it's unclear if he's current with it, or perhaps rusty from not doing daily for a long time. I suspect Hal Finney was behind the Satoshi handle on the original mailing list, and I wouldn't be surprised if he enlisted Szabo to help him write the paper since Szabo was also on that list, is a good writer, and Szabo's Bit Gold concept is pretty close to Bitcoin. But it's most likely Hal who invented Bitcoin's architecture and coded it up. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nick_Szabo https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nick_Szabo
spookybones 7y ago
Interestingly, the photo of his Congo passport shows his date of birth as December 12, 1982. But, the article and Wikipedia states his date of birth as December 12, 1972.
- mikeleung 7y ago
  that's a fake passport, hence the alias 'Solotshi'
ak39 7y ago
"The newfound Satoshi candidate is Paul Solotshi Calder Le Roux, a 46-year old former cartel boss, drug smuggler, arms dealer, informant to the US Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA), and genius programmer." How do you run a drug cartel, be responsible for gun running, play undercover informant for the DEA and still have time to program in C++ AFTER thinking deeply about the best architecture for crypto-currency through trial and error prototypes and then also have the presence of mind to author a near perfect academic quality paper on the seminal algos? Keyser Söze! The legend continues with new apocryphal evidence.
- tribeofone 7y ago
  Some people are just orders of magnitude smarter than the rest of us. Look at Kim.com, how was this guy able to run a series of companies, become a multimillionaire and be the #1 rated Call of Duty player in the world? I can hardly manage holding down a job, and coaching my kid's soccer team!
  - tschwimmer 7y ago
    this is the first time I've seen Kim Dotcom's name rendered that way. As far as I can tell he usually spells it out.
  - BubRoss 7y ago
    His companies weren't overly clever or technical and could be delegated. This is something that would have to fall on this guy's shoulders alone.
  - DyslexicAtheist 7y ago
    I know Kim because I interviewed with his company "Data Protect" in Munich in person. He was a hero back then in infosec and kids like me were told by "the Internet elders" that if you want to make it in InfoSec you have to work for Dataprotect ... "because this is a company where the boss flies to work with his helicopter". I was young and easy to impress and this kind of talk was even echoed by fyodor @ insecure.org so it wasn't just idiots like myself who believed it. When I met him and his other German partner in September 2000 at his swanky office in Nymphenburgerstraße all my alarm bells rang because they had literally cartoon cut-outs of Kim and posters of Kim everywhere plastered around the office. Kim is a genius in managing his brand but he isn't a hacker, in fact his questions in the interview were so lame that I felt really disappointed. Later it turned out that he hasn't even done the credit card hacks that he used to say he did. Instead he made his money with insider trading and ponzi schemes during the dot-com bubble which was the reason why he did a runner and why German authorities wanted him for so long. Kim isn't a technology genius, he is just a really good con-man (oh btw his real name is "Kimble Schmitz", which sounds way less cool than Kim Dotcom).
robotcookies 7y ago
Is it really possible to stay anonymous for this long? Nakamoto bought the bitcoin.org domain at one point - we know this for sure. Surely someone can track how this was paid for? Someone running the forum he posted on has IPs it came from. Even if it was through a VPN, that can be traced by going to the host provider, right? This person left a long digital trail. How is this not traceable?
- SkyMarshal 7y ago
  Maybe he used a prepaid card for the domain and a different one for the VPN (which doesn't log), or maybe he did everything through TOR. Not hard to be untraceable for someone capable of inventing Bitcoin.
- exolymph 7y ago
  Do registrars accept pre-paid Visa "gift cards" and the like? Those were much less restricted circa 2009, right? (I could be wrong, that's just my general impression)
rayascott 7y ago
Elaine Shannon wrote the book "Hunting LeRoux" https://www.elaine-shannon.com/works-1 https://www.elaine-shannon.com/works-1 I haven't read it but she has been on reddit discussing why she thinks Paul Le Roux is NOT Satoshi Nakamoto https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/bp3uug/the_unanimous_opinion_is_no_hes_not_satoshi/ https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/bp3uug/the_unanimous_o...
- SkyMarshal 7y ago
  Great find. "In 2009, when bitcoin emerged, he was busy launching multiple ventures As I detailed in Hunting LeRoux, among these were small arms sales, trading in hard drugs, trading in smuggled gold, building a submarine, devising a new missile navigation system for Iran and setting up a new base in Somalia, where he intended to make himself into a white warlord, expanding his arms business into an Amazon-for-arms platform with fortified bases, his own militia, barracks, warehouses for arms, an airstrip, a seaport and so on. Significantly, he discovered oil on the land he controlled but declined to drill it, saying it would take too long to turn a profit."
  - nickpsecurity 7y ago
    "saying it would take too long to turn a profit." If that's true, he'd definitely not want to do an uncertain and long play like Bitcoin. He'd be more likely to do Silk Road or something.
gm3dmo 7y ago
In a forum post from 2002, 7 years before Bitcoin was released, somebody posted something that sounds an awful lot like an early idea of Bitcoin ... The comments in the screenshot claimed to be from 2002 are from gmail.com addresses. Gmail was launched April 2004.
- jiveturkey 7y ago
  the gmail.com comment is a reply, dated 2014. Later on in the thread, the original post, being replied to, is shown to be from 2002. Necrothread. the screenshot you're referring to doesn't show any dates.
virtuexru 7y ago
This article states that: "Bitcoin’s initial code had a poker client included." Does anyone have more information about this? I had no idea this was the case.
- emrehan 7y ago
  https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin/blob/4405b78d6059e536c36974088a8ed4d9f0f29898/uibase.cpp#L1592 https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin/blob/4405b78d6059e536c369...
_Nat_ 7y ago
Isn't Satoshi Nakamoto supposed to control >5% of the total Bitcoin supply currently available? But they're inexplicably not tapping into the large amount of wealth that'd seem to be available to them? It's a bit hard to believe that someone who'd go to such extremes for money as Le Roux would simply choose not to enjoy some payday from the Bitcoin hoard.
- UseStrict 7y ago
  I'm pretty sure he's still in prison, serving time for various convictions.
mike_hearn 7y ago
I was one of the first users of Bitcoin, and one of the earliest developers. I'd like to have a beer with Satoshi some day, so I took a brief look at this. But I'm unconvinced. One key claim is "they both liked gambling, Bitcoin 0.1 had a poker client in it". Beyond the obvious problem that lots of people like poker, this claim is nonsense. None of the versions of Bitcoin I've ever seen had a poker client in them. It's not even clear what that would mean - you can't implement (mental) poker with Bitcoin Script. And I don't recall Satoshi ever commenting on gambling one way or another. Another claim is that they both knew C++. Let's assume for a moment that TrueCrypt was written by Paul le Roux (I don't know the backstory). I downloaded the TrueCrypt code and had a look at it. The TrueCrypt code doesn't share the same rather distinctive coding style Satoshi used. Bitcoin was rare for all kinds of reasons, but one rather obscure reason is that he used a simplified variant of Hungarian notation and only wrote code for Windows. The TrueCrypt code doesn't share this quirk, but it does have a different formatting quirk that I haven't seen before (there's always a space after a function name and the argument list in invocations). Satoshi didn't use that style either. Styles can be pretty distinctive, and I've never seen one that exactly matched Bitcoin's. So it looks to me like these codebases were written by different people. The other bits of "evidence" are all circumstantial and frequently absurd. The entire thing traces back to Craig Wright, which isn't a good sign.
- dwild 7y ago
  For the poker claims, a quick Google search gave this: https://github.com/trottier/original-bitcoin/blob/master/src/uibase.cpp#L1573 https://github.com/trottier/original-bitcoin/blob/master/src... I don't know if this is the right source code though.
- Method-X 7y ago
  Hey Mike! Are there any known examples of Nick Szabo's code anywhere?
- I_am_tiberius 7y ago
  I'm hearing about the Hungarian notation story for the first time. Just makes it more evident that it's Nick Szabo.
wyck 7y ago
tl;dr Craig ratted out La Roux and the the icing on the cake is trying to steal La Roux's coins using a front for mining (and school funding, etc)? Ya that's not the full story, La Roux certainly knows about this unless he's in solitary, did anyone ask him;)

181 points by jbegley 7y ago

Why say Paul Solotshi instead of Paul Le Roux, a name everyone is far more familiar with? None of the evidence presented was compelling. It was circumstantial at best. Save yourself the five minutes it takes to read this article.

the_watcher 7y ago
Seriously. The author apparently considers "both are familiar with payments" evidence.
- dmix 7y ago
  What is the "new evidence" mentioned in the headline?
  - the_watcher 7y ago
    The only "new" bit of verifiable information is that a link to Paul Le Roux's Wikipedia page appears unredacted in a document presented by Wright in which most other specific names are redacted because he claimed their exposure could put him at risk (implication being that he helped put criminals away). Everything else just starts from "Le Roux may be Satoshi" and employs conspiracy theorist logic to get there ("He uses an alias that kind of sounds a little like Satoshi - Solotshi. This suggests that he IS Satoshi.")
    - Hasknewbie 7y ago
      As ridiculous as it is, that's still more researched than that idiotic Newsweek article...
    - mthoms 7y ago
      Well, the TrueCrypt link (if proven) is very interesting. Both TrueCrypt and Bitcoin share similar ideologies and both are extraordinary ambitious feats of (anonymous) C++ engineering. I'm inclined to think there aren't many people in the world who possess the skills necessary and at the same time the need to preserve absolute anonymity at all costs. The number of (non governmental) people in the world who intersect those two things really can't be more than a handful. To be clear, I'm not saying I believe all this - just that there is a fair amount more to it than similar aliases. I'd be interested to see some analysis of the C++ code in both projects to see if they share any idiosyncrasies.
      - dmix 7y ago
        Wouldn't it be easy to compare the TrueCrypt C++ code with Bitcoins? Programming a project of that size by a solo developer must have similar patterns and quirks. I don't think anyone is capable of faking that for long unless they tried to make it as generic as possible`.
      - AdmiralAsshat 7y ago
        > Well, the TrueCrypt link (if proven) is very interesting. The only link that the article mentions is that Satoshi used TrueCrypt. So what? TrueCrypt was the gold standard for encrypted drives which everyone in the tinfoil hat community used until it shut down. It would be like trying to draw a link between a real person and a pseudonymous identity because both of them were known to have an iPhone.
        mthoms 7y ago
        The article (and my comment) suggests a possible link because both projects (1) are so advanced that only a very elite calibre of developer could have produced them; (2) used the same language; (3) had similar ideologies/goals; and (4) had an author who insisted on complete anonymity. It's no smoking gun but it's certainly interesting. >It would be like trying to draw a link between a real person and a pseudonymous identity because both of them were known to have an iPhone. Ridiculous. Having an iPhone is exceedingly common. Having the above mentioned qualities in common, while not unheard of, is certainly rare.
- playeren 7y ago
  Oh my god. I AM SATOSHI!? I have read a bit about Le Roux over the years, and I got an impression of someone who always seeks the short term benefit (albeit often a quite sizeable benefit) over a long term benefit. Among droves of other crazy things, the guy was trying to set himself up as a warlord in Somalia, allegedly aiming to provide mercenary services to highest bidder. It's really hard for me to reconcile someone like that with the thoughtful debate SN dealt in. But that's mostly my biases talking, and less an objective analysis.
bena 7y ago
"Circumstantial" does not mean "weak". Circumstantial evidence is often strong enough and compelling enough to determine court cases. Circumstantial evidence is often better than direct evidence. Circumstantial evidence: Stuff like DNA, fingerprints Direct evidence: Bob's memory of the event. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Circumstantial_evidence https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Circumstantial_evidence But please, continue using "the evidence is circumstantial" as if it means that it's not good enough.
- N_trglctc_joe 7y ago
  This is a really good point. Direct evidence of Satoshi's identity can only be in the form of someone claiming to be him, and that just wouldn't be credible. Circumstantial evidence is all we're going to get; even somebody spending Satoshi's BTC wouldn't be direct evidence since, as the article points out, someone else could have obtained (and be in the process of cracking) his hard drives.
  - bena 7y ago
    People just way too often ape legal procedural shows where people will exclaim that "all this evidence is circumstantial" as if that's an actual problem. You can say that about most evidence. Even the classic "smoking gun" metaphor is an example of circumstantial evidence. It's just a way for people to dismiss a claim without actually having to argue against a claim. If the evidence is tenuous or weak, explain why. For instance, the fact that Solotshi is similar to Satoshi. That's just dumb. If you're going to pick a pseudonym to hide your identity for the long term, you don't pick one that's just a variation of your name. However, if every other piece of evidence was much better, then dude just picked a bad pseudonym. And we also have to consider that a lot of weak signals can become a strong signal. Like the name thing is what I'd call an extremely weak signal. But if there's an overwhelming flood of such weak signals, then it starts looking much more likely.
- michaelterryio 7y ago
  Yes! And eye witness testimony is often terrible. It's disappointing that circumstantial evidence gets such a bad rap. Very unlikely things happen all the time. But beyond a certain level of unlikeliness, combined with a strong motive, it has to be enough. And of course in practice everyone gets this because cases are decided every day by this implicit understanding. Some circumstantial evidence is very strong, as when you find a trout in the milk. -- Henry David Thoreau
strikelaserclaw 7y ago
Damn dude, that guy is like Walter White.
brokenkebab 7y ago
Because SatoSHI, SolotSHI - we found him! CASE CLOSED!
- netsharc 7y ago
  Wasn't that a Newsweek conclusion? They found some guy named Nakamoto and concluded so. Yay Journalism! https://www.newsweek.com/newsweeks-statement-bitcoin-story-231242 https://www.newsweek.com/newsweeks-statement-bitcoin-story-2...

nostrademons 7y ago

I'd still bet on Hal Finney, RIP.

api 7y ago
If so that means the creator of the first true cryptocurrency is currently frozen in liquid nitrogen awaiting potential revival in the future, which is even more evidence that we are in fact living in a cyberpunk novel. All we need now is a Rastafarian operated space station at one of the Lagrange points.
- nostrademons 7y ago
  We also have pervasive surveillance, drones that bomb enemies of the state at their weddings, social credit scores, masses who are addicted to their (two way, voice controlled!) telescreens, bionic humans with RFID chips embedded in their hands, reality TV stars running the government, people drinking green mush called Soylent, reusable rockets to colonize Mars, a cloud of Internet-bearing satellites surrounding the earth, and a cult of rich people who think time is going to end as AI takes over and technological progress accelerates to a singularity. We are living in a cyberpunk novel.
  - ramses0 7y ago
    "The future is already here, it's just not evenly distributed." - W. Gibson
  - Aaronstotle 7y ago
    Add to that corporations with more power than governments (Facebook,Amazon,Google), and that the eco-systems around us are being pushed to their breaking points. I think people don't think we're in a cyberpunk novel because the world isn't bathed in neon lights.
    - cr0sh 7y ago
      > Add to that corporations with more power than governments (Facebook,Amazon,Google) Until one of the FAANGs get access and control to their own nuclear weapon and/or military - they unequivocally do not have more power than governments do. Governments (in general) have a monopoly on the power to kill their citizens and (potentially) the citizens of other governments/countries. None of the FAANGs have that (that we know of).

darkpuma 7y ago

Every time I read one of these theories it sounds pretty convincing. This one too. Yet they can't all be right.

chvid 7y ago

Why all this silliness? Everyone knows it was made by the grumpy Aussie man.

tim333 7y ago
Unlikely.
- jtms 7y ago
  It was clearly a joke - he means the opposite of what was said, but thanks for spelling out the obvious

avs733 7y ago

So sincere question...does this matter? What is added to the social value of bitcoin or cryptocurrency in general? I'm not asking to just dismiss it...just why we are perpetually having/focusing on this discussion is intriguing to me

TomVDB 7y ago
At the very least, this story matters just the way general human interest stories matter, as entertainment.
gtirloni 7y ago
It matters as much as the new royal baby. People have a fixation with these things.
- avs733 7y ago
  So that was my initial (curmudgeonly) reaction but I posted my question with an open mind and the responses have honestly changed my perspective.
jimbob45 7y ago
He would reach mythical status if he were found to have upended both the cryptographic industry and financial industry as well as run a multi-continental crime empire.
- vkou 7y ago
  > if he were found to have upended both the cryptographic industry and financial industry How exactly has he up-ended the financial industry? None of the differences in how 99.9% of the world pays for things, over the past 10 years, have anything to do with BTC. How has he upended the cryptographic industry? Nobody actually building products, or using cryptography for useful things is basing it off BTC. BTC created a new financial market, sure. It has not 'upended' industries that solve actual problems.
  - 7y ago

1121redblackgo 7y ago

Nick Szabo

hartator 7y ago

Gimlet media released a podcast about him: https://gimletmedia.com/shows/reply-all/dvhd9k/136-the-founder https://gimletmedia.com/shows/reply-all/dvhd9k/136-the-found... His huge interest for gold, programming, encryption, and his global distrust of the state makes me believe he can also have created Bitcoin.

scottlocklin 7y ago
He also ran a crazy criminal empire denoted in gold bricks, which seems like a pretty stupid hobby if you invented bitcoin. It was Hal Finney (and maybe Szabo). It's obvious.

staplers 7y ago

After 7 years in the crypto space, I'm still not convinced of any particular Satoshi theory. That being said, Nick Szabo, Hal Finney, and Paul Le Roux all have decent evidence pointing to them.

mirimir 7y ago
I vaguely recall reading about Bitcoin development in ~darknet forums, during 2010-2012. But only vaguely, and I retained no logs. There were hints, I think, that developers were Australian. Edit: OK, maybe it was earlier. I did say vaguely.
- staplers 7y ago
  Bitcoin was created in Jan 2009.. so the "developers" you are thinking of could have begun contributing after Satoshi
  - acapybara 7y ago
    Correct. And the whitepaper was published in 2008.
  - mirimir 7y ago
    I've been following cypherpunks related stuff since the mid 90s. But I've kept no notes or records. So I don't exactly recall the timeframe. But it was definitely years before the whitepaper. And as I said, I recall hints that developers were Australian. Actually, perhaps I do have records. But finding them would be nontrivial. I have lots of old FDE drives. But no labels about content, for obvious reasons.
user17843 7y ago
I think it was a combined persona from Nick and Hal, with Nick doing most of the writing in the forum.
WalterBright 7y ago
Hal was in the dorm room next to mine at Caltech. It's just like him to be Satoshi. Hal was a great guy, wicked smart even for Caltech, and his sense of humor fits right in with being the anonymous creator. I have no idea about the other two fellows, but my money's on Hal just because I want it to have been him!

mirimir 7y ago

Interesting, I suppose. But I wonder if Craig Wright does in fact have a bunch of FDE drives that he's trying to crack. And if they are Le Roux's drives, I wonder what will go down if he ever gets released.

mrkramer 7y ago

He is probably not Satoshi because Bitcoin was meant to be everything opposite of a currency for money laundering hence triple ledger accounting aka blockchain. After all see Bitcoin whitepaper and read carefully each sentence and you will realize it was meant for internet commerce and last thing you want in ecommerce is fraud and money laundering. On the other hand Craig Wright is the most possible candidate for Satoshi by far. There are too many clues leading to him for example like this one https://seclists.org/basics/2006/Mar/270 https://seclists.org/basics/2006/Mar/270 or a small detail like word "bloody" which Satoshi used and it is usual for people using British vocab which Craig being Australian uses, I heard it in his presentations. And btw Craig said he was involved in cracking of TrueCrypt with law enforcement that explains why creator of TrueCrypt is mentioned in court documents.

JohnJamesRambo 7y ago
Craig Wright is not Satoshi, that is absurd. Research it more and come back to us. If he ever wanted to prove it he could easily do so by moving any of the early coins etc. Instead of his fraudulent signatures added after the fact and all his other shenanigans.
- bepvte 7y ago
  Craig Wright is commonly known as "Faketoshi" in the community due to how much he claims he is Satoshi.
  - mlcrypto 7y ago
    Another theory says that is the perfect way to hide in plain sight if you were the real Satosh
    - drexlspivey 7y ago
      Or you know, if you want to hide the fact that you are satoshi don't tell people you are satoshi?

tptacek 7y ago

Evidence: * Both Le Roux and Satoshi did significant cryptography projects. * Both Le Roux and Satoshi work in C++. * Wright claimed in legal filings to have been involved with Le Roux. * Allegedly, Wright and a friend have built a cluster of computers to crack secrets, which the theory presumes to be the password for a TrueCrypt volume with Le Roux's bitcoin key. * Le Roux has an alias, "Solotshi", which sounds like Satoshi. * Le Roux published a short manifesto, long before Bitcoin, that echoes some Bitcoin principles. * Satoshi disappeared at about the same time Le Roux was really kicking his criminal conspiracy into gear. * A forum post presaging Bitcoin was posted from the Netherlands, where Le Roux is from. I mean, judge this stuff for yourself. Independently: a lot of people want this to be true.

CiPHPerCoder 7y ago
I want this to be true so we can stop having stories written about it once and for all. (I mean, why does it matter? Someone desires privacy, and we as a community are hellbent on depriving them of any... what does that say about our moral character?)
- BinaryIdiot 7y ago
  > I want this to be true so we can stop having stories written about it once and for all. Yup, I'm with you. At this point I don't care what the truth is, it would just be nice for it to be out in the open so the nonsense articles we get every single year stop.
- johnnycab 7y ago
  >(I mean, why does it matter? Someone desires privacy, and we as a community are hellbent on depriving them of any... what does that say about our moral character?) Are you talking about Paul Le Roux or Craig Wright? Both of them have been actively craving recognition and courting notoriety of their own accord, for differing reasons ─ either due a flaw in their character or empty spots in their souls, probably not related to their genius. Regardless, they are not seeking any kind of redemption or permission from anyone, nor do they have any desire for privacy; although Paul Le Roux is already semi-anonymous due to his status as an asset.

gwbas1c 7y ago

Reads like a conspiracy theory. That being said, as much merit as the theory has, there's far too much allusion to circumstance to believe this.

Sschellbach 7y ago

my conspiratorial reaction to all these conspiracies about paul le roux is that this is propaganda to defame bitcoin by driving a narrative that bitcoin was created by a convicted vicious crime boss and informant. im not buyin

ilaksh 7y ago

Well, if I were a movie producer I might consider trying to put that movie out immediately. Before we find out who the actual Satoshi is -- assuming we will ever find out. Because it just sounds like the type of movie that Hollywood can sell. I mean Hollywood loves to glorify violence, and people already think that Bitcoin is mainly about criminal activity. However I am hoping that La Roux is not Satoshi, or at least that it is never proven. Because the association with criminal activities detracts from the positive effects that cryptocurrency can have in terms of improving society.

wp381640 7y ago
"Hunting LeRoux" - the book is already being turned into a film by Michael Mann[0] His story is more than interesting enough for an entire film without the Satoshi connection [0] https://www.latimes.com/books/la-ca-jc-evan-ratliff-elaine-shannon-paul-leroux-20190215-story.html https://www.latimes.com/books/la-ca-jc-evan-ratliff-elaine-s...

rdiddly 7y ago

Is it possible the name Paul Le Roux was left unredacted intentionally? I'm not familiar with Wright's case or possible motives; this is just a public service announcement that you should always look with suspicion at all "leaks." For some reason the idea that a piece of info came out inadvertently or accidentally is sufficiently distracting that few people will wonder whether that piece of info is true. Which means a viable strategy for anyone trying to make something look true, is to make it look like it was released accidentally.

I_am_tiberius 7y ago

I don't believe it, at all. I still very sure it's Nicks Szabo. Also if he blocked me on Twitter for no reason:)

781 7y ago
The problem with Szabo is that nobody was able to locate any sort of code written by Szabo - ie, he doesn't seem to know how to program and the first version of Bitcoin is way beyond noob-level - crypto, GUI, distributed networking, ...
- I_am_tiberius 7y ago
  In the podcast with Tim Ferriss he said he can code in C++.
  - 781 7y ago
    Well, none of his code is public. Furthermore, on his blog he wrote about a lot of topics - economics, history, politics, crypto contracts, but not even once about a programming topic.
    - SkyMarshal 7y ago
      Szabo was a University of Washington compsci undergrad, and then an engineer at Digicash and a certificate authority company (forgot which). Then he went to law school. So he definitely knows how to code, but it's unclear if he's current with it, or perhaps rusty from not doing daily for a long time. I suspect Hal Finney was behind the Satoshi handle on the original mailing list, and I wouldn't be surprised if he enlisted Szabo to help him write the paper since Szabo was also on that list, is a good writer, and Szabo's Bit Gold concept is pretty close to Bitcoin. But it's most likely Hal who invented Bitcoin's architecture and coded it up. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nick_Szabo https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nick_Szabo

spookybones 7y ago

Interestingly, the photo of his Congo passport shows his date of birth as December 12, 1982. But, the article and Wikipedia states his date of birth as December 12, 1972.

mikeleung 7y ago
that's a fake passport, hence the alias 'Solotshi'

ak39 7y ago

"The newfound Satoshi candidate is Paul Solotshi Calder Le Roux, a 46-year old former cartel boss, drug smuggler, arms dealer, informant to the US Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA), and genius programmer." How do you run a drug cartel, be responsible for gun running, play undercover informant for the DEA and still have time to program in C++ AFTER thinking deeply about the best architecture for crypto-currency through trial and error prototypes and then also have the presence of mind to author a near perfect academic quality paper on the seminal algos? Keyser Söze! The legend continues with new apocryphal evidence.

tribeofone 7y ago
Some people are just orders of magnitude smarter than the rest of us. Look at Kim.com, how was this guy able to run a series of companies, become a multimillionaire and be the #1 rated Call of Duty player in the world? I can hardly manage holding down a job, and coaching my kid's soccer team!
- tschwimmer 7y ago
  this is the first time I've seen Kim Dotcom's name rendered that way. As far as I can tell he usually spells it out.
- BubRoss 7y ago
  His companies weren't overly clever or technical and could be delegated. This is something that would have to fall on this guy's shoulders alone.
- DyslexicAtheist 7y ago
  I know Kim because I interviewed with his company "Data Protect" in Munich in person. He was a hero back then in infosec and kids like me were told by "the Internet elders" that if you want to make it in InfoSec you have to work for Dataprotect ... "because this is a company where the boss flies to work with his helicopter". I was young and easy to impress and this kind of talk was even echoed by fyodor @ insecure.org so it wasn't just idiots like myself who believed it. When I met him and his other German partner in September 2000 at his swanky office in Nymphenburgerstraße all my alarm bells rang because they had literally cartoon cut-outs of Kim and posters of Kim everywhere plastered around the office. Kim is a genius in managing his brand but he isn't a hacker, in fact his questions in the interview were so lame that I felt really disappointed. Later it turned out that he hasn't even done the credit card hacks that he used to say he did. Instead he made his money with insider trading and ponzi schemes during the dot-com bubble which was the reason why he did a runner and why German authorities wanted him for so long. Kim isn't a technology genius, he is just a really good con-man (oh btw his real name is "Kimble Schmitz", which sounds way less cool than Kim Dotcom).

robotcookies 7y ago

Is it really possible to stay anonymous for this long? Nakamoto bought the bitcoin.org domain at one point - we know this for sure. Surely someone can track how this was paid for? Someone running the forum he posted on has IPs it came from. Even if it was through a VPN, that can be traced by going to the host provider, right? This person left a long digital trail. How is this not traceable?

SkyMarshal 7y ago
Maybe he used a prepaid card for the domain and a different one for the VPN (which doesn't log), or maybe he did everything through TOR. Not hard to be untraceable for someone capable of inventing Bitcoin.
exolymph 7y ago
Do registrars accept pre-paid Visa "gift cards" and the like? Those were much less restricted circa 2009, right? (I could be wrong, that's just my general impression)

rayascott 7y ago

Elaine Shannon wrote the book "Hunting LeRoux" https://www.elaine-shannon.com/works-1 https://www.elaine-shannon.com/works-1 I haven't read it but she has been on reddit discussing why she thinks Paul Le Roux is NOT Satoshi Nakamoto https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/bp3uug/the_unanimous_opinion_is_no_hes_not_satoshi/ https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/bp3uug/the_unanimous_o...

SkyMarshal 7y ago
Great find. "In 2009, when bitcoin emerged, he was busy launching multiple ventures As I detailed in Hunting LeRoux, among these were small arms sales, trading in hard drugs, trading in smuggled gold, building a submarine, devising a new missile navigation system for Iran and setting up a new base in Somalia, where he intended to make himself into a white warlord, expanding his arms business into an Amazon-for-arms platform with fortified bases, his own militia, barracks, warehouses for arms, an airstrip, a seaport and so on. Significantly, he discovered oil on the land he controlled but declined to drill it, saying it would take too long to turn a profit."
- nickpsecurity 7y ago
  "saying it would take too long to turn a profit." If that's true, he'd definitely not want to do an uncertain and long play like Bitcoin. He'd be more likely to do Silk Road or something.

gm3dmo 7y ago

In a forum post from 2002, 7 years before Bitcoin was released, somebody posted something that sounds an awful lot like an early idea of Bitcoin ... The comments in the screenshot claimed to be from 2002 are from gmail.com addresses. Gmail was launched April 2004.

jiveturkey 7y ago
the gmail.com comment is a reply, dated 2014. Later on in the thread, the original post, being replied to, is shown to be from 2002. Necrothread. the screenshot you're referring to doesn't show any dates.

virtuexru 7y ago

This article states that: "Bitcoin’s initial code had a poker client included." Does anyone have more information about this? I had no idea this was the case.

emrehan 7y ago
https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin/blob/4405b78d6059e536c36974088a8ed4d9f0f29898/uibase.cpp#L1592 https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin/blob/4405b78d6059e536c369...

_Nat_ 7y ago

Isn't Satoshi Nakamoto supposed to control >5% of the total Bitcoin supply currently available? But they're inexplicably not tapping into the large amount of wealth that'd seem to be available to them? It's a bit hard to believe that someone who'd go to such extremes for money as Le Roux would simply choose not to enjoy some payday from the Bitcoin hoard.

UseStrict 7y ago
I'm pretty sure he's still in prison, serving time for various convictions.

mike_hearn 7y ago

I was one of the first users of Bitcoin, and one of the earliest developers. I'd like to have a beer with Satoshi some day, so I took a brief look at this. But I'm unconvinced. One key claim is "they both liked gambling, Bitcoin 0.1 had a poker client in it". Beyond the obvious problem that lots of people like poker, this claim is nonsense. None of the versions of Bitcoin I've ever seen had a poker client in them. It's not even clear what that would mean - you can't implement (mental) poker with Bitcoin Script. And I don't recall Satoshi ever commenting on gambling one way or another. Another claim is that they both knew C++. Let's assume for a moment that TrueCrypt was written by Paul le Roux (I don't know the backstory). I downloaded the TrueCrypt code and had a look at it. The TrueCrypt code doesn't share the same rather distinctive coding style Satoshi used. Bitcoin was rare for all kinds of reasons, but one rather obscure reason is that he used a simplified variant of Hungarian notation and only wrote code for Windows. The TrueCrypt code doesn't share this quirk, but it does have a different formatting quirk that I haven't seen before (there's always a space after a function name and the argument list in invocations). Satoshi didn't use that style either. Styles can be pretty distinctive, and I've never seen one that exactly matched Bitcoin's. So it looks to me like these codebases were written by different people. The other bits of "evidence" are all circumstantial and frequently absurd. The entire thing traces back to Craig Wright, which isn't a good sign.

dwild 7y ago
For the poker claims, a quick Google search gave this: https://github.com/trottier/original-bitcoin/blob/master/src/uibase.cpp#L1573 https://github.com/trottier/original-bitcoin/blob/master/src... I don't know if this is the right source code though.
Method-X 7y ago
Hey Mike! Are there any known examples of Nick Szabo's code anywhere?
I_am_tiberius 7y ago
I'm hearing about the Hungarian notation story for the first time. Just makes it more evident that it's Nick Szabo.

wyck 7y ago

tl;dr Craig ratted out La Roux and the the icing on the cake is trying to steal La Roux's coins using a front for mining (and school funding, etc)? Ya that's not the full story, La Roux certainly knows about this unless he's in solitary, did anyone ask him;)