5 ms·

Is 10 years normal for the lifespan of a car? Mine is 23 now, still works fine, and I feel is nicer than similar new cars in terms of interior finishes, hydraul

by emp 7y ago

Is 10 years normal for the lifespan of a car? Mine is 23 now, still works fine, and I feel is nicer than similar new cars in terms of interior finishes, hydraulic power steering, actual buttons for climate control that do their one thing well. I don't drive much, but then I don't remember any childhood cars of my parents being at end of life at 10 years, and those were used in daily commutes. Do the batteries decay over time? If a Leaf only has say 8k miles a year, will the batteries simply fail to hold charge after 22 years?

bertil 7y ago
Both car parts and battery longevity depend on how you use them more than how long — so those statements are about overall statics; there will always be anecdotes. This likely means that a majority of Leaf cars will need repairs that cost more than the car is worth on the market, while the battery still has value, although likely not in a new car as they will be worn out a bit and technology will have ten years to improve by then. Elon Musk has already said that Telsa is planning on re-using batteries from Telsa cars into on-grid batteries, where weight is less of an issue, so partial batteries are fine. That’s likely what will happen to Leaf batteries in 10 years too.
semi-extrinsic 7y ago
Trying to look up statistics on this, and what I find is very strange: Both in Europe and in the US, average age of vehicles on the road is given as ~ 11 years, while average age at scrappage is given as ~ 15 years. How do you even make an age distribution that agrees with those numbers? How do you make those numbers agree with the statistics of vehicles sold per year, which is relatively steady?
- random314 7y ago
  It might seem like the average age should be 7.5 years but cars that last longer than 15 years will contribute more to the sample than the average car, thus giving an average of 11.
- Zenst 7y ago
  A few ways when you use averages and only use one type of average - mean average without including mode or median average types. The age of on the road vehicles can be skewed by new cars. The age of scrappage can equally be skewed by a few new cars written off and as such, scrapped. Then we do not know average time of the road, the transition time of sitting in a garage/off-road and then scrapped a few years later. That could be a short period or decades. That again would skew averages. As you can see - I have a pet hate about averages when they just use the mean average. Without knowing the other two averages or complete access to the data-sets - a biased perspective can and will be the outcome more often than not. It's like a company employing 100 people - 99 earn 10k a year and one earns 1 million a year. The company can and often will say that their employees earn on average 19.9k a year. When the median and mode forms of averages would both in this instance yield an answer of 10k. I'd be most happy if any use of averages has to include all 3 forms of averages - after all, we do teach them in school's, let's use them and save so much confusion, bias and statistical abuse. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Average https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Average
  - billforsternz 7y ago
    I like your thinking. I've always thought mean, median and mode should be thought of as different possible "average" definitions. But common usage always seems to have average == mean, and the other two as slightly less important ideas. This Wikipedia article pleasingly implies my (and your) preferred model is actually the correct one.
- Someone 7y ago
  The number of cars is growing (https://www.statista.com/statistics/183505/number-of-vehicles-in-the-united-states-since-1990/) https://www.statista.com/statistics/183505/number-of-vehicle...) If it grows faster than sales, fewer cars must be taken of the road. Could be as simple as households holding on to cars longer because they cannot afford to replace them, because modern cars last longer, or because they can afford to have a second/third car in the garage, but not a new one.
dugditches 7y ago
Environment matters a lot. Road salt and Ocean Air destroys car bodies. The drivetrain can be fine, but the body just falls apart around it. There's going to be an interesting time for Used Cars coming up, with all the electronics and complex parts. Where cars could be worked on in your garage or local shop, now need a trip to a dealer to work out the Electronic Wizardry. Followed by the dying out of non-diesel ICE shops turning into just Brake and Tire places.
- kevan 7y ago
  I've had good luck avoiding body rust in Minnesota, but on my last car (sold at 15yrs old) I ended up replacing every suspension and brake component over the last 3 years due to corrosion. My current car is 10 years old and I've already replaced a couple seized calipers.
- Scoundreller 7y ago
  I find it a funny thought because, in my experience, the OBD port often tells you exactly what is wrong, or at least where to look. And if you have a common car (like my parents’ Corolla), an ambiguous code can tell a lot when you check the internet and you get directed to the most common failure mode.
- qes 7y ago
  I have a 2007 Saab and even the dealership can't sort out the ghosts in the electronic wizardry. Not at any remotely reasonable cost. It's basically deal with it or spend thousands of dollars replacing at least the main computer, which has assumed far too many functions. The variety of things that malfunction together is absurd, and slightly frightening. I can't trust that an issue with the door locks or climate controls isn't going to manifest as the engine turning off or the steering column lock engaging mid-drive.
sehugg 7y ago
It's common for a major component to break after 10-12 years and its repair costs exceed the resale value of the vehicle. On my last car, it was the AC compressor. OTOH, some models like the 90s Toyota Camry seem to last forever. Also, car maintence costs have exceeded inflation over time: https://www.officialdata.org/Motor-vehicle-maintenance-and-repair/price-inflation/1968 https://www.officialdata.org/Motor-vehicle-maintenance-and-r...
- kop316 7y ago
  Something that has always bothered me is "resale value" of a car. I have a car with ~215000 miles, and its "resale" value is $1.5k. However, I gladly paid for $500 for a minor repair on it (I had to replace a rim due to hitting a curb), even if it was supposedly a third of the value of the car. Even when/if the engine/transmission goes out, I've considered rebuilding or replacing it, because I see little reason to pay so much more for a new car when the current one is in such good condition.
  - ce4 7y ago
    exactly, that's just maintenance costs. Replacement costs would've been even more for a newer car (bigger rim, more expensive design).
  - Scoundreller 7y ago
    Must have been a nice rim! As you experienced, spending $500 to keep a $1500 car from becoming a brick is a great value. If/when I have the time, my plan is to take cars like this and part them out. Lots of people out there willing to pay for a working OEM part to de-Brick their car. If you’re patient enough; selling rims one by one would pay off. Nobody really wants to replace all 4 when they really needed one.
    - kop316 7y ago
      Yeah it was, I bought a more expensive car when I was younger. When this one gives out I'm getting a cheaper one (hopefully without phone home electronics too).
justin66 7y ago
> Do the batteries decay over time? Think about any product using rechargeable batteries that you have ever owned, and you'll get the idea. There will be a gradual reduction in range until the batteries really need to be replaced.

by emp 7y ago

bertil 7y ago

Both car parts and battery longevity depend on how you use them more than how long — so those statements are about overall statics; there will always be anecdotes. This likely means that a majority of Leaf cars will need repairs that cost more than the car is worth on the market, while the battery still has value, although likely not in a new car as they will be worn out a bit and technology will have ten years to improve by then. Elon Musk has already said that Telsa is planning on re-using batteries from Telsa cars into on-grid batteries, where weight is less of an issue, so partial batteries are fine. That’s likely what will happen to Leaf batteries in 10 years too.

semi-extrinsic 7y ago

Trying to look up statistics on this, and what I find is very strange: Both in Europe and in the US, average age of vehicles on the road is given as ~ 11 years, while average age at scrappage is given as ~ 15 years. How do you even make an age distribution that agrees with those numbers? How do you make those numbers agree with the statistics of vehicles sold per year, which is relatively steady?

random314 7y ago
It might seem like the average age should be 7.5 years but cars that last longer than 15 years will contribute more to the sample than the average car, thus giving an average of 11.
Zenst 7y ago
A few ways when you use averages and only use one type of average - mean average without including mode or median average types. The age of on the road vehicles can be skewed by new cars. The age of scrappage can equally be skewed by a few new cars written off and as such, scrapped. Then we do not know average time of the road, the transition time of sitting in a garage/off-road and then scrapped a few years later. That could be a short period or decades. That again would skew averages. As you can see - I have a pet hate about averages when they just use the mean average. Without knowing the other two averages or complete access to the data-sets - a biased perspective can and will be the outcome more often than not. It's like a company employing 100 people - 99 earn 10k a year and one earns 1 million a year. The company can and often will say that their employees earn on average 19.9k a year. When the median and mode forms of averages would both in this instance yield an answer of 10k. I'd be most happy if any use of averages has to include all 3 forms of averages - after all, we do teach them in school's, let's use them and save so much confusion, bias and statistical abuse. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Average https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Average
- billforsternz 7y ago
  I like your thinking. I've always thought mean, median and mode should be thought of as different possible "average" definitions. But common usage always seems to have average == mean, and the other two as slightly less important ideas. This Wikipedia article pleasingly implies my (and your) preferred model is actually the correct one.
Someone 7y ago
The number of cars is growing (https://www.statista.com/statistics/183505/number-of-vehicles-in-the-united-states-since-1990/) https://www.statista.com/statistics/183505/number-of-vehicle...) If it grows faster than sales, fewer cars must be taken of the road. Could be as simple as households holding on to cars longer because they cannot afford to replace them, because modern cars last longer, or because they can afford to have a second/third car in the garage, but not a new one.

dugditches 7y ago

Environment matters a lot. Road salt and Ocean Air destroys car bodies. The drivetrain can be fine, but the body just falls apart around it. There's going to be an interesting time for Used Cars coming up, with all the electronics and complex parts. Where cars could be worked on in your garage or local shop, now need a trip to a dealer to work out the Electronic Wizardry. Followed by the dying out of non-diesel ICE shops turning into just Brake and Tire places.

kevan 7y ago
I've had good luck avoiding body rust in Minnesota, but on my last car (sold at 15yrs old) I ended up replacing every suspension and brake component over the last 3 years due to corrosion. My current car is 10 years old and I've already replaced a couple seized calipers.
Scoundreller 7y ago
I find it a funny thought because, in my experience, the OBD port often tells you exactly what is wrong, or at least where to look. And if you have a common car (like my parents’ Corolla), an ambiguous code can tell a lot when you check the internet and you get directed to the most common failure mode.
qes 7y ago
I have a 2007 Saab and even the dealership can't sort out the ghosts in the electronic wizardry. Not at any remotely reasonable cost. It's basically deal with it or spend thousands of dollars replacing at least the main computer, which has assumed far too many functions. The variety of things that malfunction together is absurd, and slightly frightening. I can't trust that an issue with the door locks or climate controls isn't going to manifest as the engine turning off or the steering column lock engaging mid-drive.

sehugg 7y ago

It's common for a major component to break after 10-12 years and its repair costs exceed the resale value of the vehicle. On my last car, it was the AC compressor. OTOH, some models like the 90s Toyota Camry seem to last forever. Also, car maintence costs have exceeded inflation over time: https://www.officialdata.org/Motor-vehicle-maintenance-and-repair/price-inflation/1968 https://www.officialdata.org/Motor-vehicle-maintenance-and-r...

kop316 7y ago
Something that has always bothered me is "resale value" of a car. I have a car with ~215000 miles, and its "resale" value is $1.5k. However, I gladly paid for $500 for a minor repair on it (I had to replace a rim due to hitting a curb), even if it was supposedly a third of the value of the car. Even when/if the engine/transmission goes out, I've considered rebuilding or replacing it, because I see little reason to pay so much more for a new car when the current one is in such good condition.
- ce4 7y ago
  exactly, that's just maintenance costs. Replacement costs would've been even more for a newer car (bigger rim, more expensive design).
- Scoundreller 7y ago
  Must have been a nice rim! As you experienced, spending $500 to keep a $1500 car from becoming a brick is a great value. If/when I have the time, my plan is to take cars like this and part them out. Lots of people out there willing to pay for a working OEM part to de-Brick their car. If you’re patient enough; selling rims one by one would pay off. Nobody really wants to replace all 4 when they really needed one.
  - kop316 7y ago
    Yeah it was, I bought a more expensive car when I was younger. When this one gives out I'm getting a cheaper one (hopefully without phone home electronics too).

justin66 7y ago

> Do the batteries decay over time? Think about any product using rechargeable batteries that you have ever owned, and you'll get the idea. There will be a gradual reduction in range until the batteries really need to be replaced.