6 ms·

What does "crashing down" mean, exactly? Do you mean economic development will stall? Then that would imply that home prices will decline and/or people will s

What does "crashing down" mean, exactly? Do you mean economic development will stall? Then that would imply that home prices will decline and/or people will start leaving the state. If so, then that's the market at work, solving the problem without government intervention.

mullingitover 7y ago
By 'crashing down' I mean a stiff housing price correction. There's already heavy government intervention in the housing markets, that's the problem: developers can't simply buy land and develop it to it's maximum potential. There are regulations that prevent the market from meeting demand, hence the skyrocketing prices that can't be addressed by increasing supply.
- glitchc 7y ago
  Hasn’t happened in London yet, or Hong Kong or Bombay or any other world class city open to the elite. The wealth my change hands, but the number of elites is monotonically increasing. It doesn’t matter if none of the locals can afford it.
  - seanmcdirmid 7y ago
    Property crashes do happen from time to time. Even in HK, Mumbai, London, etc...
    - glitchc 7y ago
      Other than minor blips, long-term trend is positive. Check out the ten year trend at [1] [1] https://tradingeconomics.com/hong-kong/housing-index https://tradingeconomics.com/hong-kong/housing-index It may be an unpopular notion or maybe folks in SF are hoping to time the market, but the general trend across the globe is increasing price in desirable locales, barring natural disasters. So, yes, if a major earthquake hit SF, there would be a price correction :)
      - seanmcdirmid 7y ago
        SF area was pretty down for more than a few years in the 90s (almost a lost decade from a gain perspective). Yes, it is temporary but even a small blip is enough to take out most leveraged speculators. HK is an especially speculated and manipulated market, only experts should play there.
      - helen___keller 7y ago
        > Other than minor blips, long-term trend is positive. Check out the ten year trend The entire global equities market has been going crazy for the past decade, in no small part due to the historically low interest rates. Claiming that housing prices will keep going up is like claiming that the stock market will keep going up. Even if it is true in the long run, you can have recessions or depressions, some that may last decades (see Japan's stock market since the 90s). Bull runs don't last forever. Rental yields are abysmal in top cities, sometimes barely enough to cover the unit's tax burden & maintenance. If equities go down, so will the value of these units.
        glitchc 7y ago
        Land ownership has a long-term positive growth trend going back a thousand years in western society. It’s as stable an investment as one can make. Average rate of return in North Am over 50 years is about 5% per year.
- magduf 7y ago
  >By 'crashing down' I mean a stiff housing price correction. I don't see how that's a problem, in fact it sounds like a solution. I'm certainly not going to cry over a bunch of rich people losing their shirts on overpriced real estate.
  - KptMarchewa 7y ago
    The problem is that many people can't afford to live there in the period of bubble.
    - magduf 7y ago
      Right, nor should they. They should go where they can afford to live. If that means the Bay Area has no more restaurants, gas stations, garbage pickup, schools, etc., that's fine.
  - village-idiot 7y ago
    I wouldn’t, but given the political power of the home owning class I really fear what corrective measures the government would take to stop a correction.
  - jjeaff 7y ago
    It's not just rich people. It's people who have spent every bit of disposable income they have on keeping their mortgage paid up. That includes not investing into retirement funds. They are counting on their house being the retirement fund. When the housing market collapses, there are going to be a lot of people left holding the bag.
conanbatt 7y ago
Its a market at work but it puts a cap on how much CA can grow. CA is already losing out enormously domestically. CA thrives demographically only on immigration, otherwise it would constantly lose people. Also the quality of life is not guaranteed by prices: SF is the only place i know where millionaires step on human shit on their way to work daily.
imtringued 7y ago
Americans are fleeing SF in masses already.

mullingitover 7y ago

By 'crashing down' I mean a stiff housing price correction. There's already heavy government intervention in the housing markets, that's the problem: developers can't simply buy land and develop it to it's maximum potential. There are regulations that prevent the market from meeting demand, hence the skyrocketing prices that can't be addressed by increasing supply.

glitchc 7y ago
Hasn’t happened in London yet, or Hong Kong or Bombay or any other world class city open to the elite. The wealth my change hands, but the number of elites is monotonically increasing. It doesn’t matter if none of the locals can afford it.
- seanmcdirmid 7y ago
  Property crashes do happen from time to time. Even in HK, Mumbai, London, etc...
  - glitchc 7y ago
    Other than minor blips, long-term trend is positive. Check out the ten year trend at [1] [1] https://tradingeconomics.com/hong-kong/housing-index https://tradingeconomics.com/hong-kong/housing-index It may be an unpopular notion or maybe folks in SF are hoping to time the market, but the general trend across the globe is increasing price in desirable locales, barring natural disasters. So, yes, if a major earthquake hit SF, there would be a price correction :)
    - seanmcdirmid 7y ago
      SF area was pretty down for more than a few years in the 90s (almost a lost decade from a gain perspective). Yes, it is temporary but even a small blip is enough to take out most leveraged speculators. HK is an especially speculated and manipulated market, only experts should play there.
    - helen___keller 7y ago
      > Other than minor blips, long-term trend is positive. Check out the ten year trend The entire global equities market has been going crazy for the past decade, in no small part due to the historically low interest rates. Claiming that housing prices will keep going up is like claiming that the stock market will keep going up. Even if it is true in the long run, you can have recessions or depressions, some that may last decades (see Japan's stock market since the 90s). Bull runs don't last forever. Rental yields are abysmal in top cities, sometimes barely enough to cover the unit's tax burden & maintenance. If equities go down, so will the value of these units.
      - glitchc 7y ago
        Land ownership has a long-term positive growth trend going back a thousand years in western society. It’s as stable an investment as one can make. Average rate of return in North Am over 50 years is about 5% per year.
magduf 7y ago
>By 'crashing down' I mean a stiff housing price correction. I don't see how that's a problem, in fact it sounds like a solution. I'm certainly not going to cry over a bunch of rich people losing their shirts on overpriced real estate.
- KptMarchewa 7y ago
  The problem is that many people can't afford to live there in the period of bubble.
  - magduf 7y ago
    Right, nor should they. They should go where they can afford to live. If that means the Bay Area has no more restaurants, gas stations, garbage pickup, schools, etc., that's fine.
- village-idiot 7y ago
  I wouldn’t, but given the political power of the home owning class I really fear what corrective measures the government would take to stop a correction.
- jjeaff 7y ago
  It's not just rich people. It's people who have spent every bit of disposable income they have on keeping their mortgage paid up. That includes not investing into retirement funds. They are counting on their house being the retirement fund. When the housing market collapses, there are going to be a lot of people left holding the bag.

conanbatt 7y ago

Its a market at work but it puts a cap on how much CA can grow. CA is already losing out enormously domestically. CA thrives demographically only on immigration, otherwise it would constantly lose people. Also the quality of life is not guaranteed by prices: SF is the only place i know where millionaires step on human shit on their way to work daily.

imtringued 7y ago

Americans are fleeing SF in masses already.