4 ms·

Or a half full view: tens of billions, possibly more, will be paid to the same truckers in their new, more fulfilling and healthier occupation? I don't know wh

Or a half full view: tens of billions, possibly more, will be paid to the same truckers in their new, more fulfilling and healthier occupation? I don't know which scenario will play out. Neither do you. We'll have to see. Better yet, strive to make my scenario the reality. Complain about automation wouldn't help.

maximente 7y ago
complaining about automation sure will help, there's even a US presidential candidate polling >1% whose ideas about how the government supports its citizens were greatly inspired by - you guessed it - people losing jobs and not getting them back due to automation. the idea that an individual can somehow strive to change capital capturing massive swathes of business and not sharing those proceeds with those they have sidelined is pretty laudable. i appreciate your optimism but i would consider it more on the unrealistic side, especially given that truck drivers probably aren't gung ho about studying for years to get retrained given most of them don't have college degrees in the first place.
- arcticbull 7y ago
  > i appreciate your optimism but i would consider it more on the unrealistic side, especially given that truck drivers probably aren't gung ho about studying for years to get retrained given most of them don't have college degrees in the first place. That doesn’t mean we should create or endorse make work projects, jobs that could be faster, cheaper and more efficient when automated. Society has a responsibility to these people, which is why I support both basic income and job retraining programs. It’s the humane way to make progress without fear.
chpatrick 7y ago
What I fear is that the new, more fulfilling occupations you describe will go to the next generation of non-truckers, not those who lost their jobs. If you spent your whole life driving trucks and it's what you're good at, can you really transfer to a new occupation that's more fulfilling and well-paid in older age, or will you just be left unemployed or stuck with a worse job? I think more automation is absolutely the future but we need to find some way to take care of the people who are left behind, and not just say "oh they'll get some other job".
- gdubya 7y ago
  some way to take care of the people left behind.... some kind of Income that was Basic but Universal...
StanislavPetrov 7y ago
We know how the scenario plays out because we've seen the effects of automation playing out for the last 20 years. These fantasy jobs that people have been talking about since NAFTA never materialized. For working people home, health and general insecurity have skyrocketed along with household debt as wages have stagnated and fallen. We can either deal with reality as it exists or keep spinning ideological fantasies until the situation reaches a breaking point.
pbhjpbhj 7y ago
Yes, assuming we have a World with infinite resources then your suggestion would be compelling. As we could just manufacture more, and move these people in to other industries, producing ever more stuff for the people higher up the wealth scale. How do you think that's going to play out with energy production becoming problematic due to climate change, with water becoming hard to come by even in some Western regions, with resources like sand (!) growing in short supply. Oh, sure, we'll just buy our way out with our endless resources and our ever increasing consumption. WCGW. The real "half full", ie optimistic, outlook is that we find a way societally to do something like UBI, or spread jobs across more people (3 day week, etc.), or something else, without having to get there through violent revolution or similarly disturbing means. You're right, I don't know _the_ answer, but I do know it's not greater consumption (ie shift truckers in to a job producing something else), unless we first solve energy production in a massively transformative way.

maximente 7y ago

complaining about automation sure will help, there's even a US presidential candidate polling >1% whose ideas about how the government supports its citizens were greatly inspired by - you guessed it - people losing jobs and not getting them back due to automation. the idea that an individual can somehow strive to change capital capturing massive swathes of business and not sharing those proceeds with those they have sidelined is pretty laudable. i appreciate your optimism but i would consider it more on the unrealistic side, especially given that truck drivers probably aren't gung ho about studying for years to get retrained given most of them don't have college degrees in the first place.

arcticbull 7y ago
> i appreciate your optimism but i would consider it more on the unrealistic side, especially given that truck drivers probably aren't gung ho about studying for years to get retrained given most of them don't have college degrees in the first place. That doesn’t mean we should create or endorse make work projects, jobs that could be faster, cheaper and more efficient when automated. Society has a responsibility to these people, which is why I support both basic income and job retraining programs. It’s the humane way to make progress without fear.

chpatrick 7y ago

What I fear is that the new, more fulfilling occupations you describe will go to the next generation of non-truckers, not those who lost their jobs. If you spent your whole life driving trucks and it's what you're good at, can you really transfer to a new occupation that's more fulfilling and well-paid in older age, or will you just be left unemployed or stuck with a worse job? I think more automation is absolutely the future but we need to find some way to take care of the people who are left behind, and not just say "oh they'll get some other job".

gdubya 7y ago
some way to take care of the people left behind.... some kind of Income that was Basic but Universal...

StanislavPetrov 7y ago

We know how the scenario plays out because we've seen the effects of automation playing out for the last 20 years. These fantasy jobs that people have been talking about since NAFTA never materialized. For working people home, health and general insecurity have skyrocketed along with household debt as wages have stagnated and fallen. We can either deal with reality as it exists or keep spinning ideological fantasies until the situation reaches a breaking point.

pbhjpbhj 7y ago

Yes, assuming we have a World with infinite resources then your suggestion would be compelling. As we could just manufacture more, and move these people in to other industries, producing ever more stuff for the people higher up the wealth scale. How do you think that's going to play out with energy production becoming problematic due to climate change, with water becoming hard to come by even in some Western regions, with resources like sand (!) growing in short supply. Oh, sure, we'll just buy our way out with our endless resources and our ever increasing consumption. WCGW. The real "half full", ie optimistic, outlook is that we find a way societally to do something like UBI, or spread jobs across more people (3 day week, etc.), or something else, without having to get there through violent revolution or similarly disturbing means. You're right, I don't know _the_ answer, but I do know it's not greater consumption (ie shift truckers in to a job producing something else), unless we first solve energy production in a massively transformative way.