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By disengagement reports cruise is second behind Waymo and these two are way ahead of everyone else. They are testing 160 or so Chevy bolts in California it se

By disengagement reports cruise is second behind Waymo and these two are way ahead of everyone else. They are testing 160 or so Chevy bolts in California it seems like. https://thelastdriverlicenseholder.com/2019/02/13/update-disengagement-reports-2018-final-results/ https://thelastdriverlicenseholder.com/2019/02/13/update-dis...

slg 7y ago
It is a mistake to use that report as some type of ranking due to it only measuring disengagements on public roads in California. There are some big names on that list that simply have no data like Tesla, Ford, VW, and Lyft.
- qroshan 7y ago
  Tesla isn't there because charlatan can't produce reports that would look good on Tesla. If it were he would be tweeting about it. If a California based company can't employ 4 dudes driving around California to provide this report (which is kinda important to get regulatory approval), you have to wonder how bad Tesla really is. The latest noise by Musk about Tesla's FSD is purely to raise money and take away the focus that he can't produce cars profitably. Nothing else
  - warp_factor 7y ago
    This is my feeling also. Tesla is absolutely nowhere, but they keep making noise and announcements. And what is amazing is that it works. Most people think Tesla is up there with the other self driving car companies
    - tim333 7y ago
      They have some quite impressive demo videos. Also they've been operating in demanding conditions compared to Waymo. eg NYC rush hour https://twitter.com/DrCamiloOrtiz/status/1114328048915099649 https://twitter.com/DrCamiloOrtiz/status/1114328048915099649 Lane change in heavy traffic https://twitter.com/hamids/status/1120472369762590722 https://twitter.com/hamids/status/1120472369762590722 while when reporters "Followed a Waymo Self-driving Car for Miles' the Waymos seemed to have some issues https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=spw176TZ7-8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=spw176TZ7-8
    - neonIcon 7y ago
      Absolutely nowhere? At least give the man some credit. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tlThdr3O5Qo https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tlThdr3O5Qo
      - warp_factor 7y ago
        Fine. They are at the point where they can eventually record a video on a fairly easy, almost empty, perfect condition, predefined suburban track. Noone knows how many attempts that video took. This is the point that Waymo reached in 2012 if I remember correctly.
  - slg 7y ago
    I don't know the details of the law, but I would bet that Teslas don't qualify on a technicality of the law rather than the fact that Tesla simply has not operated an autonomous vehicle on a public road in the state of California. You might be right that they are doing it to save embarrassment, but that is a rather cynical mindset considering it can also be explained by just not wanting to publicize their progress. It is also worth pointing out that Tesla's ability to run software on its fleet of hundreds of thousands of cars gives them a huge advantage regarding data collection. If their cars are truly as safe as they claim (a huge if and one we have no real public proof of yet), the lack of having this report on disengagements in California is not going to be a stumbling block in getting regulatory approval. EDIT: Since I am being downvoted, I looked up the regulation [1]. Teslas likely don't to qualify as "autonomous vehicles" according to definition b. Although that is a pretty bad definition in my opinion. Also I am not praising Tesla here, just pointing out that their ability to avoid this regulation is not an indication of the quality of their self-driving tech. [1] - https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/wcm/connect/d48f347b-8815-458e-9df2-5ded9f208e9e/adopted_txt.pdf?MOD=AJPERES https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/wcm/connect/d48f347b-8815-458e...
    - gamblor956 7y ago
      Considering that Elon Musk has never once failed to publicize even imagined progress (that would simply be par for any other business), it would boggle the mind to believe that he would be keeping any type of market-leading progress a secret, especially in the market where he has literally bet the future of the company and this type of news could encourage competitors to drop out of the market. the lack of having this report on disengagements in California is not going to be a stumbling block in getting regulatory approval. Actually, if Tesla hopes to legally sell self-driving cars in CA, that is going to be a huge stumbling block.
      - slg 7y ago
        How many businesses volunteer themselves to be subject to regulation that doesn't apply to them, especially when that regulation gives their competitors insights into the company's R&D capabilities? Tesla has sold over 50k Model 3s in California in 2018[1]. Regulators would be ridiculous if they put more value in the data from 111 Waymo vehicles compared to the data from tens of thousand of Tesla vehicles. And once again, I am not saying Tesla is leading here or has superior technology. But people like you are letting their bias against Musk and Tesla cloud their judgement on this issue. [1] - https://www.sfchronicle.com/business/article/California-s-surging-electric-car-sales-driven-13662010.php?psid=3mUuq https://www.sfchronicle.com/business/article/California-s-su...
  - pbreit 7y ago
    Does qualifying for that report help Tesla in any way?
    - qroshan 7y ago
      Yes. If it were positive and shows them to be the leader, then the market will assign an extra X Billion Dollars to it's MarketCap. And this is super important when raising the $2B Tesla is seeking.
  - dmode 7y ago
    Interesting to call Elon Musk charlatan considering he put an actual electric car on the road that is on its way to sell 400k units in a year and kicking other non charlatan like BMW and GMs ass
    - imtringued 7y ago
      This discussion is about Autopilot/FSD not the car itself. Tesla certainly didn't sell 400k cars with the FSD option.
      - Robotbeat 7y ago
        They sold 400k cars with hardware they believe is sufficient for full self driving (perhaps with limited upgrades). Tesla is the only one actually attempting to empower individuals with FSD tech. Everyone else has given up and/or wants to monopolize it for private fleets. Everyone claims to be shooting for the same FSD capability. Different strategies is, of course, wrongly conflated with "fraud." I tend to think Tesla is behind Waymo. It's hard to say beyond that. But for actual mass deployment of serious hardware, no one is ahead of Tesla.
        qroshan 7y ago
        Charlatan in 2016: Teslas built right now has all the hardware required for FSD Charlatan in 2019: The previous version by nVidia was such garbage (processing 1.5 fps, really?). Teslas built right now has all the hardware required for FSD. Charlatan, a few minutes later: We are working on the next version of FSD hardware (that'd most definitely render 2019 obsolete) There is Musk, the sometimes engineer, then there is Musk, the charlatan. An Engineer would never claim 'the latest hardware will be the greatest ever'
        Robotbeat 7y ago
        What I find interesting is that Nvidia claimed on their website that their hardware could do self driving. That’s the same hardware that Tesla has used and has to upgrade to the new Neural Net chip. Do you think Nvidia is going to pay for the hardware upgrade Teslas need? Tesla is doing so. They believe the current version of the NN is good enough for FSD, but that doesn’t mean it can’t be improved. What I find so fascinating about this discussion is how Tesla is necessarily the most transparent player yet everyone else (with the same stated FSD goals) is given a pass due to secrecy. I suppose that means secrecy works.
  - KorematsuFred 7y ago
    Charlatan is an appropriate word for Musk but in a limited sense. He is surely making false claims about Tesla's self driving abilities which clearly border on fraud. But Tesla car itself is a very good car and has been selling like hot cakes.
    - Fins 7y ago
      I think Tesla is a very good EV. Quite possibly the best EV on the market. But it's pretty pathetic as a car, especially as a car at the price they ask for it.
      - badpun 7y ago
        That's of course a separate can of worms, but I too never understood why people buy electric cars in their current form. Imagine you had a laptop that can last a month on full charge, vs your typical laptop of today that lasts a day at best - people would obviously choose the former. And yet, in cars, people choose the latter, and pay extra for the privilege. [1] [1] Except that situation with cars is much worse than with laptops, as you can continue using a laptop while it's charging.
        Fins 7y ago
        I can see people willing to put up with inconveniences for the sake of supposed environmental reasons, and some people just like the shiny new thing with touchscreens and computers and Elon's reality distortion field... What is funny is when they try to convince people that a Tesla actually is a luxury car, which it quite obviously isn't. Model S lacks some meaningful amenities that a Hyunday at half the price has, build quality would make a Yugo gag, and if it does break down or gets in an accident you might be waiting months for it to be fixed. But I guess it's nice to convince yourself that there were some reasons you've paid $60K for for something less practical than a Yaris...
      - tim333 7y ago
        The recent Top Gear Model 3 vs BMW M3 test has the Tesla doing rather well as a car. They put it ahead of the BMW overall https://www.topgear.com/videos/video/video-tesla-model-3-vs-bmw-m3 https://www.topgear.com/videos/video/video-tesla-model-3-vs-...
  - ec109685 7y ago
    Waymo and Cruise taxies have to operate in all conditions before they can roll out general purpose taxies. E.g. if you hail one and on the way home, there is construction and a cop directing traffic, you can’t take over and drive. With a Tesla, they can deliver incremental value, without having to be able to handle every possible scenario. Also aren’t Cruise and Waymo in same boat touting progress to raise money?
- ypzhang2 7y ago
  Then its probably fool hardy to have any sort of ranking for self driving efficacy due to lack of publicly accessible data.
  - slg 7y ago
    I completely agree. The problem is the report linked is one of the few pieces of public data so people tend to inflate its importance and value.
tmh79 7y ago
the disengagement reports are self reported and aren't comparing "apples to apples" between companies. This isn't a reliable metric.

slg 7y ago

It is a mistake to use that report as some type of ranking due to it only measuring disengagements on public roads in California. There are some big names on that list that simply have no data like Tesla, Ford, VW, and Lyft.

qroshan 7y ago
Tesla isn't there because charlatan can't produce reports that would look good on Tesla. If it were he would be tweeting about it. If a California based company can't employ 4 dudes driving around California to provide this report (which is kinda important to get regulatory approval), you have to wonder how bad Tesla really is. The latest noise by Musk about Tesla's FSD is purely to raise money and take away the focus that he can't produce cars profitably. Nothing else
- warp_factor 7y ago
  This is my feeling also. Tesla is absolutely nowhere, but they keep making noise and announcements. And what is amazing is that it works. Most people think Tesla is up there with the other self driving car companies
  - tim333 7y ago
    They have some quite impressive demo videos. Also they've been operating in demanding conditions compared to Waymo. eg NYC rush hour https://twitter.com/DrCamiloOrtiz/status/1114328048915099649 https://twitter.com/DrCamiloOrtiz/status/1114328048915099649 Lane change in heavy traffic https://twitter.com/hamids/status/1120472369762590722 https://twitter.com/hamids/status/1120472369762590722 while when reporters "Followed a Waymo Self-driving Car for Miles' the Waymos seemed to have some issues https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=spw176TZ7-8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=spw176TZ7-8
  - neonIcon 7y ago
    Absolutely nowhere? At least give the man some credit. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tlThdr3O5Qo https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tlThdr3O5Qo
    - warp_factor 7y ago
      Fine. They are at the point where they can eventually record a video on a fairly easy, almost empty, perfect condition, predefined suburban track. Noone knows how many attempts that video took. This is the point that Waymo reached in 2012 if I remember correctly.
- slg 7y ago
  I don't know the details of the law, but I would bet that Teslas don't qualify on a technicality of the law rather than the fact that Tesla simply has not operated an autonomous vehicle on a public road in the state of California. You might be right that they are doing it to save embarrassment, but that is a rather cynical mindset considering it can also be explained by just not wanting to publicize their progress. It is also worth pointing out that Tesla's ability to run software on its fleet of hundreds of thousands of cars gives them a huge advantage regarding data collection. If their cars are truly as safe as they claim (a huge if and one we have no real public proof of yet), the lack of having this report on disengagements in California is not going to be a stumbling block in getting regulatory approval. EDIT: Since I am being downvoted, I looked up the regulation [1]. Teslas likely don't to qualify as "autonomous vehicles" according to definition b. Although that is a pretty bad definition in my opinion. Also I am not praising Tesla here, just pointing out that their ability to avoid this regulation is not an indication of the quality of their self-driving tech. [1] - https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/wcm/connect/d48f347b-8815-458e-9df2-5ded9f208e9e/adopted_txt.pdf?MOD=AJPERES https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/wcm/connect/d48f347b-8815-458e...
  - gamblor956 7y ago
    Considering that Elon Musk has never once failed to publicize even imagined progress (that would simply be par for any other business), it would boggle the mind to believe that he would be keeping any type of market-leading progress a secret, especially in the market where he has literally bet the future of the company and this type of news could encourage competitors to drop out of the market. the lack of having this report on disengagements in California is not going to be a stumbling block in getting regulatory approval. Actually, if Tesla hopes to legally sell self-driving cars in CA, that is going to be a huge stumbling block.
    - slg 7y ago
      How many businesses volunteer themselves to be subject to regulation that doesn't apply to them, especially when that regulation gives their competitors insights into the company's R&D capabilities? Tesla has sold over 50k Model 3s in California in 2018[1]. Regulators would be ridiculous if they put more value in the data from 111 Waymo vehicles compared to the data from tens of thousand of Tesla vehicles. And once again, I am not saying Tesla is leading here or has superior technology. But people like you are letting their bias against Musk and Tesla cloud their judgement on this issue. [1] - https://www.sfchronicle.com/business/article/California-s-surging-electric-car-sales-driven-13662010.php?psid=3mUuq https://www.sfchronicle.com/business/article/California-s-su...
- pbreit 7y ago
  Does qualifying for that report help Tesla in any way?
  - qroshan 7y ago
    Yes. If it were positive and shows them to be the leader, then the market will assign an extra X Billion Dollars to it's MarketCap. And this is super important when raising the $2B Tesla is seeking.
- dmode 7y ago
  Interesting to call Elon Musk charlatan considering he put an actual electric car on the road that is on its way to sell 400k units in a year and kicking other non charlatan like BMW and GMs ass
  - imtringued 7y ago
    This discussion is about Autopilot/FSD not the car itself. Tesla certainly didn't sell 400k cars with the FSD option.
    - Robotbeat 7y ago
      They sold 400k cars with hardware they believe is sufficient for full self driving (perhaps with limited upgrades). Tesla is the only one actually attempting to empower individuals with FSD tech. Everyone else has given up and/or wants to monopolize it for private fleets. Everyone claims to be shooting for the same FSD capability. Different strategies is, of course, wrongly conflated with "fraud." I tend to think Tesla is behind Waymo. It's hard to say beyond that. But for actual mass deployment of serious hardware, no one is ahead of Tesla.
      - qroshan 7y ago
        Charlatan in 2016: Teslas built right now has all the hardware required for FSD Charlatan in 2019: The previous version by nVidia was such garbage (processing 1.5 fps, really?). Teslas built right now has all the hardware required for FSD. Charlatan, a few minutes later: We are working on the next version of FSD hardware (that'd most definitely render 2019 obsolete) There is Musk, the sometimes engineer, then there is Musk, the charlatan. An Engineer would never claim 'the latest hardware will be the greatest ever'
        Robotbeat 7y ago
        What I find interesting is that Nvidia claimed on their website that their hardware could do self driving. That’s the same hardware that Tesla has used and has to upgrade to the new Neural Net chip. Do you think Nvidia is going to pay for the hardware upgrade Teslas need? Tesla is doing so. They believe the current version of the NN is good enough for FSD, but that doesn’t mean it can’t be improved. What I find so fascinating about this discussion is how Tesla is necessarily the most transparent player yet everyone else (with the same stated FSD goals) is given a pass due to secrecy. I suppose that means secrecy works.
- KorematsuFred 7y ago
  Charlatan is an appropriate word for Musk but in a limited sense. He is surely making false claims about Tesla's self driving abilities which clearly border on fraud. But Tesla car itself is a very good car and has been selling like hot cakes.
  - Fins 7y ago
    I think Tesla is a very good EV. Quite possibly the best EV on the market. But it's pretty pathetic as a car, especially as a car at the price they ask for it.
    - badpun 7y ago
      That's of course a separate can of worms, but I too never understood why people buy electric cars in their current form. Imagine you had a laptop that can last a month on full charge, vs your typical laptop of today that lasts a day at best - people would obviously choose the former. And yet, in cars, people choose the latter, and pay extra for the privilege. [1] [1] Except that situation with cars is much worse than with laptops, as you can continue using a laptop while it's charging.
      - Fins 7y ago
        I can see people willing to put up with inconveniences for the sake of supposed environmental reasons, and some people just like the shiny new thing with touchscreens and computers and Elon's reality distortion field... What is funny is when they try to convince people that a Tesla actually is a luxury car, which it quite obviously isn't. Model S lacks some meaningful amenities that a Hyunday at half the price has, build quality would make a Yugo gag, and if it does break down or gets in an accident you might be waiting months for it to be fixed. But I guess it's nice to convince yourself that there were some reasons you've paid $60K for for something less practical than a Yaris...
    - tim333 7y ago
      The recent Top Gear Model 3 vs BMW M3 test has the Tesla doing rather well as a car. They put it ahead of the BMW overall https://www.topgear.com/videos/video/video-tesla-model-3-vs-bmw-m3 https://www.topgear.com/videos/video/video-tesla-model-3-vs-...
- ec109685 7y ago
  Waymo and Cruise taxies have to operate in all conditions before they can roll out general purpose taxies. E.g. if you hail one and on the way home, there is construction and a cop directing traffic, you can’t take over and drive. With a Tesla, they can deliver incremental value, without having to be able to handle every possible scenario. Also aren’t Cruise and Waymo in same boat touting progress to raise money?
ypzhang2 7y ago
Then its probably fool hardy to have any sort of ranking for self driving efficacy due to lack of publicly accessible data.
- slg 7y ago
  I completely agree. The problem is the report linked is one of the few pieces of public data so people tend to inflate its importance and value.

tmh79 7y ago

the disengagement reports are self reported and aren't comparing "apples to apples" between companies. This isn't a reliable metric.