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How could the math possibly work out on this? If a gallon of gas holds 33.70 kWh of energy, and you can get cheap electricity for $0.1/kWh, you're looking at $3

How could the math possibly work out on this? If a gallon of gas holds 33.70 kWh of energy, and you can get cheap electricity for $0.1/kWh, you're looking at $3.37/gallon if you have a magical process that converts with 100% efficiency. Even if you hit your efficiency goal, which would be impressive, who is paying $7/gallon for gas? Just buy an electric car. This can only possibly be useful when all of the oil is gone and there is no other alternative, right?

mshron 7y ago
Solar is already down to $0.065/kWh for industrial applications [1]. That's $3.90/gallon at today's prices, and solar prices continue to fall. The DOE's 2020 targets came three years ahead of schedule. Their 2030 target is $0.04/kWh [2], which would work out to $2.40/gallon. Mix in the fact that a bunch of countries (and US states) have implemented carbon taxes and you've got yourself a good long term investment. [1] http://solarcellcentral.com/cost_page.html http://solarcellcentral.com/cost_page.html [2] https://www.energy.gov/eere/solar/articles/2020-utility-scale-solar-goal-achieved https://www.energy.gov/eere/solar/articles/2020-utility-scal...
- ballenf 7y ago
  Do those figures include gas taxes? Don't those make up a large part of the price at the pump?
  - NortySpock 7y ago
    In the US, gas taxes are low (I think I pay 15 cents per gallon tax on a total of $2.50 per gallon). Taxes are low as here in the US (a) many people hate taxes and (b) with such a low population density, commerce is very reliant on road vehicles. So raising taxes has an outsized impact on commerce.
    - TaylorAlexander 7y ago
      California has higher gas taxes. Our gas is currently about $3.70 a gallon where I live.
      - malyk 7y ago
        $4.29 for premium yesterday in oakland.
      - icelancer 7y ago
        About that in parts of Seattle as well. Which is low given a few year rolling average. We should expect gasoline prices to rise, and fast. So anything that starts to look into economically viable options at $7-10/gallon is worth checking into now in a startup phase.
lumberjack 7y ago
It would not make sense today, but in 10 to 15 years, with climate regulations, having a carbon neutral jet fuel might start making a lot of sense.
- Damorian 7y ago
  I expect I'll see new battery powered aircraft before I see today's aircraft powered by kerosene synthesized from water and carbon dioxide in the air. And we'll probably see more rail/car before then since the massive cost increase on airline tickets from this will destroy the industry.
  - rmcginnis 7y ago
    There is a good chance we will make jet fuel in the next 2-3 years. There appears to be a lot of demand for it. We're starting with gasoline because it's a much bigger market / impact, but it's not that hard to make jet fuel too.
    - frosted-flakes 7y ago
      And if synthesizing jet fuel turns out to be viable, I could easily see governments 10–20 years from now requiring airlines to use it, the way they are for automobiles.
  - sachdevap 7y ago
    Battery powered aircrafts would require huge jumps in electrical storage. There are no signs of them becoming a reality any time soon. Not to mention the complete replacement of old planes is going to be very very slow. I don't understand your rail/car replacing flying argument. There are no signs that flying is going to get so expensive that people would rather pay for it with so much of their time.
  - bencoder 7y ago
    As the other reply pointed out, without a huge(like 5x) improvement in energy density (specific energy, actually) of batteries, this is physically impossible. Even with improvements, it would still be inefficient as batteries don't lose mass as they are used up - airliners can't even land with full fuel, they have to use it up, or dump it in an emergency situation. Using a process like this would essentially make the fuel simply a much better battery for airplanes than our batteries today.
docker_up 7y ago
Don't skate to where the puck is, skate to where the puck is going to be. Electric cars can't compete against gasoline cars until the price hits about $6/gallon. And considering that crude prices are relatively low, but gas in CA is almost $4/gallon in the Bay Area, it doesn't take much time for normal rates to hit $6/gallon in the next 10 years or so. At that price, it becomes more economic and that's the time frame probably what they're targeting as well.
- Damorian 7y ago
  What? They compete today with significantly lower fuel cost. You see 100+ mpge on every electric car I know of today, you're looking at half-1/3 the per mile cost in an electric car. That more than makes up for the higher upfront cost over the lifetime of the vehicle, with cars you can go buy right now, today.
  - solarkraft 7y ago
    And that doesn't even take into account the superior UX.
    - deleted 7y ago
      [deleted]
    - danw1979 7y ago
      I don't know why you got down voted on this. My experience of EV vs ICE (sometimes in the same vehicle - daily driving in a Prius plug-in) agrees entirely with your comment: the lovely EV experience of linear, quiet acceleration is so pleasant compared to driving a petrol car, even an automatic. And my Prius in EV mode isn't even a that great an electric experience compared to that of an i3 or 2018 Leaf.
- holy_city 7y ago
  > gas in CA is almost $4/gallon in the Bay Area And the national average (today) is $2.95, you might as well compare Hawaii and Alaska which are also economic islands. >it doesn't take much time for normal rates to hit $6/gallon in the next 10 years or so. The national average 10 years ago was $2.45, which is $2.90 accounting for inflation. The only way gas hits $6 is if we have a second Great Inflation or massive political changes in the United States and abroad.
mrfusion 7y ago
I believe they’re looking for very cheap electric rates. Excess wind or solar power the grid doesn’t want could certainly be cheap. Or college dorms.
rmcginnis 7y ago
We expect a gallon of gasoline to require approx. 60 kWh of electrical energy. If the price of that electricity is below 5 cents, the economics work. If the price is lower, the efficiency of the conversion could also be lower if that optimized other costs (like capital). Electricity is routinely below 5 cents now at utility scale (wholesale), which is where we will want to be.
- Damorian 7y ago
  Ah, that certainly explains it. I'm still highly skeptical of how widespread this will ever be, since electric cars will become even more compelling as electricity costs decrease, but you've convinced me to not dismiss this completely as impractical. Thanks for the context.
  - tommoor 7y ago
    But liquids fuels like ethanol are used for MANY more things than just transport – plus the cost of fossil fuels can only go up on any reasonable timeline.
  - xupybd 7y ago
    Batteries still are the main issue with electric cars. The range, charging time and battery life are getting better but still don't match hydrocarbons. It's just a great storage mechanism. Storage is also a big issue when it comes to renewables. You could take in carbon in areas with lots of sun and ship the fuel to areas not well suited for solar generation. This really would be a game changer for lowing the net carbon output. This also means you could solve one of the big problems in the power grid, peak generation. Use the extra capacity during off peak hours to generate fuel that is later used to fire up power stations to supply peak demand.
- danielmg 7y ago
  60 kWh capacity EV will get you (realisticaly) 200 miles. A gallon of petrol - 40 miles (realistcally and using UK gallon). According to Tesla their charging is 92% efficient so reduce that 200 to 184 miles. Your process is 4.5 times less efficient than just putting that electricity into the EV? Is that right? If so - and your process is carbon neutral (big if) - what's the point in a future where EVs dominate?
Thorondor 7y ago
At industrial scales, you can buy electricity much cheaper than $0.1/kWh if you locate your facility in the right place. For example, hydroelectric power near a large dam can cost as little as $0.02 to $0.05/kWh.
maliker 7y ago
There have been 15 year solar power purchase agreements signed already for $0.025/kWh [1]. Assuming they get to 50% efficiency, that's $1.69/gallon. Sounds crazy low, but I hope it's true. [1] https://www.utilitydive.com/news/texas-muni-signs-cheap-solar-contract-below-25mwh/544509/ https://www.utilitydive.com/news/texas-muni-signs-cheap-sola...
- jillesvangurp 7y ago
  Yes, and that's just until now. Anyone want to bet that we've hit rock bottom in terms of prices, efficiencies, and economies of scale? Or are we going to see another 10x? 0.17$/gallon. 20x?, 0.09$/gallon (rounding up because I'm lazy). My view is that is more a question of when than if and that the point where it stops mattering relative to the comparison to fossil fuels depending on your point may already be quite near or even in the past. Some places are still getting expensive solar, some places are bidding at 0.025/kwh. It doesn't really matter. What matters is what the bids will be ten years or so from now, which is when realistically this could start becoming operational at a meaningful scale. It's 2019. Ramping up production for something like this takes some time. A decade can fly by for a startup like this. Doing the math with 2019 prices and efficiencies means you get a very conservative view of what would be possible now with today's level of technology at today's scale. However, an investor needs to look a decade ahead. Or longer and assign some probabilities to likely outcomes. The outcome where there's no progress whatsoever in making clean energy tech better in the next ten years seems unlikely. So, betting on < 1$/gallon as a feasible goal in 1-2 decades seems like a reasonable bet. If the rest of the technology works as advertised (room temperature synthesis and extraction of alcohols) and the technology can be scaled at reasonable cost, that ought to be basically a money printing machine. The lower that price drops, the better. As long as oil remains the primary source, you can pocket the difference as profit.
codeulike 7y ago
who is paying $7/gallon for gas? In the UK, people pay approx $6 per gallon for gasoline.
- __d 7y ago
  For comparison, in Sydney, Australia, as of this morning, basic unleaded 91 octane fuel is about AUD 1.35 / litre at best. Which is USD 0.94 at today's exchange rate. Just under USD 4 / US gallon. Of that, AUD 0.41 is federal fuel excise, and AUD 0.12 is GST.
- xupybd 7y ago
  https://www.globalpetrolprices.com/New-Zealand/gasoline_prices/ https://www.globalpetrolprices.com/New-Zealand/gasoline_pric... If you change that chart to USD and Gallons you'll find this around the cost of gasoline in New Zealand.
- brospars 7y ago
  In France current prices are around 7$/gallon (1.6€/L)
- C1sc0cat 7y ago
  Don't forget that UK Gallons are not the same as US Gallons 1 Imperial Gallon = 1.2 US Gallons
rayiner 7y ago
> Just buy an electric car. China’s EV goal is 20% of new vehicle sales by 2025. That is to say, 80% of sales in 2025 will still be gas. (So will the 100 million gas vehicles sold in China between now and then). We are a long ways away from not needing this tech.
icelancer 7y ago
>> who is paying $7/gallon for gas A lot of people in the world. And Americans would pay close to that without subsidies + rising gas prices.
- hunta2097 7y ago
  In the UK, a gallon of Petrol is currently about $7.97 (about £1.20/litre).
SJSque 7y ago
> who is paying $7/gallon for gas? Today's price for standard gasoline here in the Netherlands is 1.83 EUR/litre, which is currently equivalent to 7.75 USD/gallon.
widforss 7y ago
$7/gallon is the approximate price in Scandinavia. It's not a completely alien price.
dwild 7y ago
In Quebec our electricity can be lower than 0.05$ CAD/kWh (3.28¢/kWh based on the Rate L [1]). Our courrent lowest price is 1.384$ CAD/L. So considering that 1L would be 8.9 kWh. So all it would need is an efficiency of 33% to be profitable with an electricity cost of 0.05$ CAD/kWh. That's excluding any tax incentive to do so or any deal made with HydroQuebec to use excess power. [1] http://www.hydroquebec.com/business/customer-space/rates/rate-l-industrial-rate-large-power-customers.html http://www.hydroquebec.com/business/customer-space/rates/rat...

mshron 7y ago

Solar is already down to $0.065/kWh for industrial applications [1]. That's $3.90/gallon at today's prices, and solar prices continue to fall. The DOE's 2020 targets came three years ahead of schedule. Their 2030 target is $0.04/kWh [2], which would work out to $2.40/gallon. Mix in the fact that a bunch of countries (and US states) have implemented carbon taxes and you've got yourself a good long term investment. [1] http://solarcellcentral.com/cost_page.html http://solarcellcentral.com/cost_page.html [2] https://www.energy.gov/eere/solar/articles/2020-utility-scale-solar-goal-achieved https://www.energy.gov/eere/solar/articles/2020-utility-scal...

ballenf 7y ago
Do those figures include gas taxes? Don't those make up a large part of the price at the pump?
- NortySpock 7y ago
  In the US, gas taxes are low (I think I pay 15 cents per gallon tax on a total of $2.50 per gallon). Taxes are low as here in the US (a) many people hate taxes and (b) with such a low population density, commerce is very reliant on road vehicles. So raising taxes has an outsized impact on commerce.
  - TaylorAlexander 7y ago
    California has higher gas taxes. Our gas is currently about $3.70 a gallon where I live.
    - malyk 7y ago
      $4.29 for premium yesterday in oakland.
    - icelancer 7y ago
      About that in parts of Seattle as well. Which is low given a few year rolling average. We should expect gasoline prices to rise, and fast. So anything that starts to look into economically viable options at $7-10/gallon is worth checking into now in a startup phase.

lumberjack 7y ago

It would not make sense today, but in 10 to 15 years, with climate regulations, having a carbon neutral jet fuel might start making a lot of sense.

Damorian 7y ago
I expect I'll see new battery powered aircraft before I see today's aircraft powered by kerosene synthesized from water and carbon dioxide in the air. And we'll probably see more rail/car before then since the massive cost increase on airline tickets from this will destroy the industry.
- rmcginnis 7y ago
  There is a good chance we will make jet fuel in the next 2-3 years. There appears to be a lot of demand for it. We're starting with gasoline because it's a much bigger market / impact, but it's not that hard to make jet fuel too.
  - frosted-flakes 7y ago
    And if synthesizing jet fuel turns out to be viable, I could easily see governments 10–20 years from now requiring airlines to use it, the way they are for automobiles.
- sachdevap 7y ago
  Battery powered aircrafts would require huge jumps in electrical storage. There are no signs of them becoming a reality any time soon. Not to mention the complete replacement of old planes is going to be very very slow. I don't understand your rail/car replacing flying argument. There are no signs that flying is going to get so expensive that people would rather pay for it with so much of their time.
- bencoder 7y ago
  As the other reply pointed out, without a huge(like 5x) improvement in energy density (specific energy, actually) of batteries, this is physically impossible. Even with improvements, it would still be inefficient as batteries don't lose mass as they are used up - airliners can't even land with full fuel, they have to use it up, or dump it in an emergency situation. Using a process like this would essentially make the fuel simply a much better battery for airplanes than our batteries today.

docker_up 7y ago

Don't skate to where the puck is, skate to where the puck is going to be. Electric cars can't compete against gasoline cars until the price hits about $6/gallon. And considering that crude prices are relatively low, but gas in CA is almost $4/gallon in the Bay Area, it doesn't take much time for normal rates to hit $6/gallon in the next 10 years or so. At that price, it becomes more economic and that's the time frame probably what they're targeting as well.

Damorian 7y ago
What? They compete today with significantly lower fuel cost. You see 100+ mpge on every electric car I know of today, you're looking at half-1/3 the per mile cost in an electric car. That more than makes up for the higher upfront cost over the lifetime of the vehicle, with cars you can go buy right now, today.
- solarkraft 7y ago
  And that doesn't even take into account the superior UX.
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]
  - danw1979 7y ago
    I don't know why you got down voted on this. My experience of EV vs ICE (sometimes in the same vehicle - daily driving in a Prius plug-in) agrees entirely with your comment: the lovely EV experience of linear, quiet acceleration is so pleasant compared to driving a petrol car, even an automatic. And my Prius in EV mode isn't even a that great an electric experience compared to that of an i3 or 2018 Leaf.
holy_city 7y ago
> gas in CA is almost $4/gallon in the Bay Area And the national average (today) is $2.95, you might as well compare Hawaii and Alaska which are also economic islands. >it doesn't take much time for normal rates to hit $6/gallon in the next 10 years or so. The national average 10 years ago was $2.45, which is $2.90 accounting for inflation. The only way gas hits $6 is if we have a second Great Inflation or massive political changes in the United States and abroad.

mrfusion 7y ago

I believe they’re looking for very cheap electric rates. Excess wind or solar power the grid doesn’t want could certainly be cheap. Or college dorms.

rmcginnis 7y ago

We expect a gallon of gasoline to require approx. 60 kWh of electrical energy. If the price of that electricity is below 5 cents, the economics work. If the price is lower, the efficiency of the conversion could also be lower if that optimized other costs (like capital). Electricity is routinely below 5 cents now at utility scale (wholesale), which is where we will want to be.

Damorian 7y ago
Ah, that certainly explains it. I'm still highly skeptical of how widespread this will ever be, since electric cars will become even more compelling as electricity costs decrease, but you've convinced me to not dismiss this completely as impractical. Thanks for the context.
- tommoor 7y ago
  But liquids fuels like ethanol are used for MANY more things than just transport – plus the cost of fossil fuels can only go up on any reasonable timeline.
- xupybd 7y ago
  Batteries still are the main issue with electric cars. The range, charging time and battery life are getting better but still don't match hydrocarbons. It's just a great storage mechanism. Storage is also a big issue when it comes to renewables. You could take in carbon in areas with lots of sun and ship the fuel to areas not well suited for solar generation. This really would be a game changer for lowing the net carbon output. This also means you could solve one of the big problems in the power grid, peak generation. Use the extra capacity during off peak hours to generate fuel that is later used to fire up power stations to supply peak demand.
danielmg 7y ago
60 kWh capacity EV will get you (realisticaly) 200 miles. A gallon of petrol - 40 miles (realistcally and using UK gallon). According to Tesla their charging is 92% efficient so reduce that 200 to 184 miles. Your process is 4.5 times less efficient than just putting that electricity into the EV? Is that right? If so - and your process is carbon neutral (big if) - what's the point in a future where EVs dominate?

Thorondor 7y ago

At industrial scales, you can buy electricity much cheaper than $0.1/kWh if you locate your facility in the right place. For example, hydroelectric power near a large dam can cost as little as $0.02 to $0.05/kWh.

maliker 7y ago

There have been 15 year solar power purchase agreements signed already for $0.025/kWh [1]. Assuming they get to 50% efficiency, that's $1.69/gallon. Sounds crazy low, but I hope it's true. [1] https://www.utilitydive.com/news/texas-muni-signs-cheap-solar-contract-below-25mwh/544509/ https://www.utilitydive.com/news/texas-muni-signs-cheap-sola...

jillesvangurp 7y ago
Yes, and that's just until now. Anyone want to bet that we've hit rock bottom in terms of prices, efficiencies, and economies of scale? Or are we going to see another 10x? 0.17$/gallon. 20x?, 0.09$/gallon (rounding up because I'm lazy). My view is that is more a question of when than if and that the point where it stops mattering relative to the comparison to fossil fuels depending on your point may already be quite near or even in the past. Some places are still getting expensive solar, some places are bidding at 0.025/kwh. It doesn't really matter. What matters is what the bids will be ten years or so from now, which is when realistically this could start becoming operational at a meaningful scale. It's 2019. Ramping up production for something like this takes some time. A decade can fly by for a startup like this. Doing the math with 2019 prices and efficiencies means you get a very conservative view of what would be possible now with today's level of technology at today's scale. However, an investor needs to look a decade ahead. Or longer and assign some probabilities to likely outcomes. The outcome where there's no progress whatsoever in making clean energy tech better in the next ten years seems unlikely. So, betting on < 1$/gallon as a feasible goal in 1-2 decades seems like a reasonable bet. If the rest of the technology works as advertised (room temperature synthesis and extraction of alcohols) and the technology can be scaled at reasonable cost, that ought to be basically a money printing machine. The lower that price drops, the better. As long as oil remains the primary source, you can pocket the difference as profit.

codeulike 7y ago

who is paying $7/gallon for gas? In the UK, people pay approx $6 per gallon for gasoline.

__d 7y ago
For comparison, in Sydney, Australia, as of this morning, basic unleaded 91 octane fuel is about AUD 1.35 / litre at best. Which is USD 0.94 at today's exchange rate. Just under USD 4 / US gallon. Of that, AUD 0.41 is federal fuel excise, and AUD 0.12 is GST.
xupybd 7y ago
https://www.globalpetrolprices.com/New-Zealand/gasoline_prices/ https://www.globalpetrolprices.com/New-Zealand/gasoline_pric... If you change that chart to USD and Gallons you'll find this around the cost of gasoline in New Zealand.
brospars 7y ago
In France current prices are around 7$/gallon (1.6€/L)
C1sc0cat 7y ago
Don't forget that UK Gallons are not the same as US Gallons 1 Imperial Gallon = 1.2 US Gallons

rayiner 7y ago

> Just buy an electric car. China’s EV goal is 20% of new vehicle sales by 2025. That is to say, 80% of sales in 2025 will still be gas. (So will the 100 million gas vehicles sold in China between now and then). We are a long ways away from not needing this tech.

icelancer 7y ago

>> who is paying $7/gallon for gas A lot of people in the world. And Americans would pay close to that without subsidies + rising gas prices.

hunta2097 7y ago
In the UK, a gallon of Petrol is currently about $7.97 (about £1.20/litre).

SJSque 7y ago

> who is paying $7/gallon for gas? Today's price for standard gasoline here in the Netherlands is 1.83 EUR/litre, which is currently equivalent to 7.75 USD/gallon.

widforss 7y ago

$7/gallon is the approximate price in Scandinavia. It's not a completely alien price.

dwild 7y ago

In Quebec our electricity can be lower than 0.05$ CAD/kWh (3.28¢/kWh based on the Rate L [1]). Our courrent lowest price is 1.384$ CAD/L. So considering that 1L would be 8.9 kWh. So all it would need is an efficiency of 33% to be profitable with an electricity cost of 0.05$ CAD/kWh. That's excluding any tax incentive to do so or any deal made with HydroQuebec to use excess power. [1] http://www.hydroquebec.com/business/customer-space/rates/rate-l-industrial-rate-large-power-customers.html http://www.hydroquebec.com/business/customer-space/rates/rat...